Timing and context in politics

          Do not call a dog with a whip in your hand. African proverb.

What appears to be the resumption of organized violence against the Nigerian state from the Niger Delta should worry Nigerians and the international community who are encouraged by efforts to improve the state of national security and management of the nation's economy. There is wide consensus that Boko Haram has been severely contained, although its retreat has revealed the magnitude of the humanitarian disaster it had created with over two million displaced persons and destruction of basic social and economic infrastructure in many parts of the north east. As Boko Haram retreated, the new presidency was taken up by a group from the south east, seeking secession. Internal security challenges such as intra and inter-community conflicts and kidnappings also exposed a nation burdened by illegal weapons and virtually non-existent policing institutions. There was also genuine concern that the fight against corruption will trigger a response from threatened powerful interests with knowledge and influence over some of the nation's security fault lines.

Then  hooded and armed gangs who like to be called militants from parts of Niger Delta rolled out boats and joined the queue, destroying oil and gas infrastructure, engaging the military and further endangering an economy desperately attempting to come to terms with crashed crude prices. To be sure, no one believed that organized violence had permanently resigned from politics and public life in the Niger Delta. Attempts to settle and  co-opt the long line of the aggrieved into the political process and the economy showed their limitations as violence continued to run the political and electoral processes during the 2015 elections and during every other election in the region since then. The reappearance of dynamites, bombs, boats and heavily-armed men with a long list of demands written in blood and threats will compound worries over whether  INEC will ever succeed in organizing all the outstanding elections dotting the region. More specifically, the sabotage of oil and gas gas facilities threatens the national economy which depends on dwindling revenues from sell of crude oil. Sabotage of gas supplies to power generating facilities will keep generation levels low and unpredictable.

If there is some thinking behind the escalation of violence in the Niger Delta, Nigerians will be entitled to ask how much attention it is paying to the issue of timing and disposition of the leadership as well as the current  mood of the nation. It would appear that someone is getting contexts wrong, and neglecting to read historical circumstances well. This  strategic miscalculation will cost the nation dearly, but deliver very little in terms of the goals of these neo-militants. Perhaps the nation is dealing with groups similar to IPOB which reincarnates a historical relic to fight for modern spoils. It could even be the case that a few people believe that they have an inexhaustible cause that can be tweaked at convenience. Then again, someone could be overestimating the place of terror in a nation just walking away from being a victim of the worst forms of violence.

For nearly two decades, Nigeria lived with major provocations around a cause in the Niger Delta. It was impossible to dismiss the evidence of cumulative abuse, neglect and insensitivity for which governments, local leaders, oil companies and armed groups were responsible. The case for redress and restitution from a people who deserved a lot better was heard and adopted across the globe, and then forced upon reluctant sympathies of the Nigerian government and oil companies. From that moment, the flood gates were opened to every demand to be made. Violence was bought with billions, but the means of violence were tucked away. Terrible crimes were pardoned. Billions released for infrastructure development went into pockets of politicians and local muscles with fancy titles like community leaders. Voices raised in protest at the cost of peace were drowned by more violence and greater damage to the national economy. More and more was conceded to a region that was basically at par with most of the rest of Nigeria, until a President came from it, and a large chunk of the nation's resources went to it.

The nation, it seems, was wrong in assuming that it had paid its dues to the Niger Delta. When Nigerians voted to reject the farce that was the Jonathan administration, to put in its place a leadership that will secure the nation and stop the institutionalized pillage of the commonwealth, they did this along with people of the Niger Delta. If they actually voted, their votes showed that most of them preferred a continuation on the Jonathan presidency, which was their right. They lost out to other Nigerians who had had enough. The world applauded the choice for change that pulled the nation away from the margins of collapse.

Now the bombs are going off in the name of a cause that will not accept that the nation can move on. Those behind this current blackmail will find that they are choosing the wrong President to threaten. President Buhari leads a nation that has neither the patience, the resources to play with nor the luxury of time to wait for this threat to play itself out. He enjoys the support of Nigerians and the global community to secure a nation that is facing one of its worst economic crises. The military under his watch had rolled back Boko Haram. IPOB met stiff resistance from a President not given to ceding part of the nation or submitting to crude blackmail. Communities in the Delta region are unlikely to provide the type of support to violent groups as they did in the past, if the outcomes will only be the destruction of oil and gas assets and the prospects of living with a full-blown military presence. They will be even more reluctant as they learn how much was pocketed for the little they got as communities. The world has little stomach for the resumption of hostilities in the Delta, after prodding the Nigerian government and oil companies to make substantial improvements in the lives of communities. Elites from the region have done it no favours, going by the plunder of public resources that is being revealed daily. An abandoned ten kilometer road near Ituoke that was to cost one billion Naira per kilometer is a screaming testimony to the legacy left behind by leaders from the region. This is the region where three trillion Naira was supposed to have been spent under Jonathan.

Most Nigerians would welcome an end to the violence and damage to oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta, and they would prefer that real grievances are processed through the institutions of state. No one will accept that the nation must remain perpetually at the mercy of violent groups from the region. If they were in the mood for it, fellow Nigerians from the north east will make people from the Niger Delta weep with their versions of life in the last four years, and a future that does not go beyond the next meal. Many Nigerians will tell them of life resting on deepening poverty and escalating insecurity. Armed gangs who blow up facilities and kill security people are not fighting the administration of President Buhari. They are fighting Nigerians in a war they cannot win.

Lawwali, almajiri.

         It takes a whole village to bring up a child. African proverb.

At the age of eleven, Lawwali has been an almajiri(traditional Islamic school pupil/student) for five years. He had seen his father once when he came to visit the Malam(teacher),but not his mother since  he left in their village near Gummi in Kebbi State. His younger brother  is also an almajiri in Suleja, Niger State. Looking at him, you will not see evidence of loneliness or longing for warmth. If you give him alms, he will thank you and pray for you. If you do not, he walks away with his thoughts of you and his society. Sentiments and signs of weakness have been erased from his countenance and replaced be an unapologetic posture that tolerates an existence at the mercy and compassion of strangers ,and an acceptance that his life has been designed by parents and teachers along lines of a long tradition.

Lawwali has lived under a tough regime that has no  room for self pity or weakness. He has learned to fight for everything, from sleeping space under a punishing learning system, to bullying and other abuses from seniors and, many times, to little food or sleeping on an empty stomach. He has survived illnesses and diseases, and lives with the permanent burden of providing for himself, teachers and minders. You will not get him to speak on life on the streets. His story is in the dirty, empty plastic bowl he holds and the rags on his back. Like your child, he was born out of love and affection of parents. He is the face of a people who pity, fear or loath him. He is us. Lawwali participated in a riot or two in Kaduna, and has seen murdered people on streets. He had been a member of the spectacular multitudes in many political events and campaigns of Governor el-Rufai and President  Buhari, and had run for miles following motorcades and convoys   shouting 'Chanji!'His stoic acceptance of generosity or denial in equal measure is a study  in systems that tolerate pain and privations as rewards.

Lawwali is the face of the monumental failure of the northern Muslim community to find a  point where traditional methods of teaching young Muslims elements of their faith will be isolated from its structural limitations and political  indifference. He is one of millions of young Nigerians who are going through the same mode of study their ancestors went through. Northern Muslim communities moved on a century ago in pursuit of western education, making available every opportunity for some of their  children to acquire western education. Millions of other children stayed behind, tied down by a  strong and stubborn value system that was neither threatened nor cajoled by the state to join the scramble for a future anchored around western values and systems. This is where the basic roots of class differentiation in the North lie. Research  on almajirci from beneficiaries of western education will fill entire libraries, many with profound insights and suggestions on integration of systems, and measures that could eliminate begging and the wretched existence of the almajiri as the hallmarks of Islamic education. They have not made a dent on the institution.

 If the near-universal consensus among Muslims that Islam does not support begging had any potency in the north, there will be very few beggars on the streets. If laws and regulations against child hawkers and beggars and like  Lawwali worked, the prisons will be bursting with almajirai, their parents, teachers and people who give them alms or other forms of support. If genuine intentions and the strength of faith and compassion had a place  in us, the army of the needy in the north, including almajirai will not go out the entire day looking for a meal or two. If northern leaders had political will and vision, the alarming numbers of child beggars who are ill-prepared to live in today's complex and punishing enviroment will not represent the dangerous blight at the heart of the north, whose most valuable potential asset is its human population. If political leaders had the support of the people and the courage to deal with deeply-rooted social problems, many battles would have been fought and won against powerful religious sects and leaders who consign Lawwali's existence to rigid patterns.

Now the Governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai has found his own solution to this ancient problem. He will ban street begging, and fine or jail anyone involved in it, and others who give them alms. He is likely get support among citizens who are angry that Islam is being portrayed as a faith that encourages destitution and dehumanization. Many who are irritated by beggars because they tug at their hearts and confront them with the dilenma of giving and encouraging beggars, or ignoring the beggar in the hope that begging will stop will also have sympathy for the Governor. Some will support him because they want clean, beggar-free streets to drive through. Some will believe that a ban will force beggars, including almajirai to look for alternative sources of basic subsistence.

 Malam Nasir el-Rufai is not an easy man to dissuade when he makes up his mind. He is, however, likely to meet stiff resistance against this latest foray into the heart of our limitations and weaknesses as a society. To discourage him will be wrong and unpatriotic, but not to advise him to give this issue a deeper consideration will be irresponsible. Lawwali and thousands like him could be stopped from begging in the streets and homes if he Governor has enough enforcement capacity not to make a mockery of law-making. If those who live off charity are sufficiently deterred form begging for food and basic subsistence, the Governor has to worry over how they will feed and survive, because one way or the other, they will. The sheer number of almajirai and an assortment of the disabled being chased or jailed in a context where you have not cultivated strong support for caging them way from neat and destitution-free environments will pose a problem of perception  and poor public sympathy for a government already fighting on many fronts.

Stopping Lawwali from begging will not eliminate the institution of  almajirci. An enlightened policy that feeds the almajiri from public funds, the same way the government now feeds primary school children is more likely to keep them off the streets. They may even stay back in schools, and teachers and sect leaders may accept some practical accomodation of some elements of western education along with what they teach. Not the farce that Jonathan slapped the north with, but a sustainable arrangement that substantially stops street begging, allows for continuation of Islamic teaching and creation of room for some western education. If he has not done so already, el-Rufai should look at experiences of states such as Kano in dealing with this problem. It is important to remind leaders that their task is to bridge distances between state and religion, not to widen them.

Lawwali and millions of almajirai will be with us for a long time. No one should celebrate or tolerate this tragic projection. In spite of the belief of his parents that his youth, sacrificed virtually in rags, hunger and exposure to damaging social tendencies is a useful investment for his adult and next life, the reality is that he deserves and can get better options for the same goals. He needs support that challenges these beliefs, creates those better options and saves him from being both  a victim and a villain. In Kaduna State, he will spend the next few months in a cat-and-mouse with government agents. His new challenge will be resolved either in a manner that leaves his life  substantially unaffected, or by circumstances that alienate him further from a society that believes the solution to his problem is to make it worse.

About herders

              A person who sells eggs should not start a fight in the market. African proverb.

          In the last one week alone, the ambigious and amorphous killing machine under the popular label of Fulani herdsmen has reportedly killed many people and destroyed villages in many parts of the country. Going by media reports, Fulani herdsmen are fast spreading to the south, attacking innocent villagers at will. There is hardly any mention of casualties on the part of these herders-turned-killers, and if there are arrests from the ranks of these apparently distinctly-identifiable killers, they are not made to public. Fulani organization spokesmen routinely distance their people from these spreading attacks, with little effect. The nation is being led down a very dangerous path, unless some urgent and decisive measures are taken. There is a danger that broad opinion is being polarized between those who see a sinister motive and official indifference behind these killings, and those who refuse to accept the broad label of Fulani herdsmen being slapped on groups that kill and destroy villages.

 What is needed at this stage is not to succumb to hysteria either way. Obviously there are killings going on in many parts of the country that appear to fit into a pattern, and victims will not be consoled by arguments over identity of perpetrators. Large and heavily armed gangs lurking in forests or around villages may pose a challenge to police and other security agents, but they must be flushed out and dealt with.

Next, we need to work towards some broad understanding of the nature of this threat. The amorphous label of Fulani herdsmen needs to be critically scrutinized against all known parameters, including common sense. The objectives of the attackers, if they have any, needs to be understood. Their grievances, if they exist, need to be identified. The sociological and economic contexts of existence of Fulani herdsmen need to be appreciated in a setting isolated from stereotyping and hysteria. The massive changes imposed on lifestyles of herders by ecology, economy, politics and security in Nigeria in the last four decades need to be understood. The point of all these enquiries will not be to make excuses for behavior of Fulani herdsmen, if indeed they are responsible for these attacks. It is to isolate what can be done now to arrest a problem that has frightening implications for national unity and security, as well as adopt strategies and policies that will mitigate the danger and eliminate the problem in the long run.

There is an urgent need to put this problem on the table and understand its nature and dimensions. It is also important to appreciate certain realities even as the nation attempts to make sense of a looming crisis. One of these is that Fulani will continue to herd cattle to all places where their livelihood is assured, and, as they have done for centuries, they are bound to come into conflicts with farmers and communities. There is no magic wand the nation can wave that will reform and domesticate animal husbandry in the next few months, and only the worst threats and disasters will stop Fulani from herding their cattle across the entire length and breadth of Nigeria. Secondly, many communities will now relate with Fulani herdsmen from suspicious and hostile perspectives, no thanks to the politicization and negative publicity they have been exposed to. Thirdly, the magnitude of the failure of basic policing, community cohesion and influence of local traditional structures in Nigeria in the last few decades, as well as widespread access to firearms among citizens should caution against tendencies to assume that Fulani herdsmen are the sole source of many of the problems in local communities that have suffered from conflicts.

Northern governors, Fulani organizations and security agencies should, as a matter of urgency, tap into expert and relevant knowledge on this relatively new phenomenon. There will be benefits from starting with rather basic questions. For instance, if these attackers are Fulani herders, where are their cattle? What do they gain by fighting communities on whose goodwill they absolutely depend on to survive? Are these genuine herders, or hoards of Fulani whose herds have been stolen in an industrial-scale pillage by organized crime or other communities in the last few years? Is there an emerging spicie of Fulani that is armed and experienced in crimes of cattle rustling, armed robbery, kidnappings and sustained attacks on villages and communities? Are there genuine grounds for believing the theory that foreign Fulani are involved in violent attacks on communities in many parts of the middle belt, south west, south south and south east? If there are, what are their motivations?

Beyond asking difficult questions, there is a major responsibility for northern leaders and the federal government to adopt emergency and long-term solutions to problems relating to animal husbandry. Many Fulani will rather live in local, secure environments than risk hostility in distant communities. There is no state in the north where, with political will, substantial grazing reserves and routes cannot be created in the next few months. These need to be accorded the highest priority in the context of national security and obligation of political leadership to core northern interests.

At the national level, answers will need to be sought for possible links between a fragmenting insurgency, armed bands seemingly fighting communities with no visible goals other than to trigger larger ethnic conflicts, and the manner armed groups succeed in infiltrating Nigerian communities. Conflicts between herdsmen and local communities should not divert attention from endemic conflicts between and within communities, and the tendency for these conflicts to assume more intense and destructive violence should be a major source of concern.

There will be opportunistic attempts to link President Buhari’s person with the appearance of bold Fulani herdsmen who fight and kill locals in communities far from their traditional locations. There will also be attempts to pitch local communities against every Fulani, to rupture age-old bonds of goodwill and co-habitation and trigger large-scale expulsion of Fulani herdsmen from many parts of Nigeria. President Buhari has already given marching orders for this phenomenon to be arrested. Governors and other leaders and security agencies should agree on strategies which lower tensions and improve relations between Fulani and local communities. Security and intelligence services should be more diligent in arresting and exposing the people who operate behind the franchise of Fulani herdsmen.

The rising, if justified indignation over the exploits of herdsmen is a major threat to national security. Left to the sorry state of the institutions of state responsible for maintenance of basic security, law and order, the nation will be confronted with a serious and complex problem that will compound our multiple security challenges. In addition to decisive action by all governments, leaders of opinion should also exercise responsible restraint. There is nothing inherent in the Fulani that makes them immune to temptations to take up arms to defend themselves, or to commit crimes.

Fulani who commit crimes are not above the law, and security intelligence should address the pressing imperative of demystifying the mask behind the generic band of killers labelled Fulani herdsmen. Defending Fulani herdsmen from being unjustly branded is also an obligation, if peace and justice remain key national values. Those with responsibility today should rise to the challenge to find solutions to the livelihood and lifestyle of the law-abiding Fulani herdsman, because clearly, his lot is being made worse by the perception that being Fulani herdsman alone is a security threat to other Nigerians. Those communities which are hurt have a right to be protected, to know their attackers and why they are being attacked. The stakes are too high for ambiguities to be tolerated.

 

Saraki Matters

Loyalty is a fine quality, but in excess it fills political graveyards. Neil Kinnock

 

Of all the ghosts from the past that haunt the All Progressives Congress the (APC) none is as significant as the person and circumstances surrounding Senate President Bukola Saraki. In fact, it is safe to say he embodies all the complex elements and nuances that are captured in the phenomenon that became the APC, and the nation is witnessing their unfolding. His conviction by the Code of Conduct Tribunal is (CCT) is one possible outcome out of many, as the past catches up with a present and a threatens to shape a future that appears poorly prepared to handle the impact. 

History of the APC will accord substantial place to Saraki and other members of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) who defected into a fledgling APC, giving it muscle, numbers and resources. Even more significantly, their defection mortally wounded the PDP, making it even weaker to resist the onslaught of a party that promised Nigerians major changes in their lives. Saraki’s hand was in every move from the original but historic walk out by some governors from the PDP, to his decision not to stand against General Buhari for the party’s flag, to the campaigns and the victory of the APC. For them, the stakes were very high for both victory and defeat of the APC. Defeat by the PDP would have confronted the defectors with serious threats to their personal and political fortunes as a vengeful PDP visited its anger and muscle over their betrayal. Success would earn them new leases of political life and front seats in an administration that was wrested from the PDP without asking too many questions over who joined in the historic struggle and why.

The heat of the battle to unseat PDP drowned voices that cautioned against wholesale and unquestioning accommodation of all elements, their resources, their records against the very opposition they are joining and their ambitions in the new party. Not that anyone would have listened, given the key objective of the battle: change the PDP as the ruling party. The difficult issue involving the exact nature of the change and its drivers was assumed to be one that will be easier to sort out under the massive influence of President Buhari and the army of party generals who gave the party its clout, and tapped into the unprecedented desire for new leadership in the nation.

The rather simplistic assumption that everyone will play by the rules, and wait for the starters’ gun was breached in a scramble led by Saraki, whose political antenna for opportunity pointed at some vulnerable points in President Buhari’s politics. Defying Buhari, the party and the unwritten philosophy of the new party which hinted at respect for leaders and chieftains, restraining personal ambitions, reinforcing the boundaries between the APC and PDP and generally not raising your flags higher than others’, Saraki moved quickly to secure the Senate Presidency. Not the claim of innocence, or compliance with due process, or the pledge of loyalty to President Buhari and the party, or the legions of mediators, peacemakers or palliatives would remove from Saraki the toga of betrayal and rehabilitate him as a trusted and important ally with whom the President and the party could be comfortable.

From there on, the story began to be told in tongues and in a manner less visible to simpler sights. President Buhari put up a brave face and said he would work with Saraki, the Senate President. When the grounds began to sink under Saraki’s feet with the reincarnation of his case with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), the presidency distanced itself from the matter, and the President specifically insisted, against many appeals from different sources, that he will not interfere with a judicial process. The trial itself set the cat among many different pigeons. The PDP, a major facilitator and beneficiary of Saraki’s emergence as Senate President found new and additional uses as his protector and potentially the winner at the end of what appears to be an undeclared civil war. Many of the Senators with huge files at the EFCC saw themselves in the image of Saraki, and rallied around him. APC Senators were split right down the middle, as patronage politics and the manipulation of the many avenues available to leadership of the Senate to keep Senators loyal, combined to keep many either staying out of the battle entirely, or joining Saraki’s ranks in the absence of strong pull in the other direction.

The judicial process has been stretched and tested to its limits over Saraki’s trial, and the fact that the trial is going on at all is either an indictment or an evidence of the integrity of the judicial process, depending on which opinion you defer to. The party has been largely consigned to an observer status, hamstrung by the very forces which made it unable to influence the emergence of the source of the problem in the first place. The 2016 budget has suffered from the stresses and strains of the saga, and relations between the executive and the legislature, particularly the Senate, have been badly affected.

Little will be gained by a blame game at this stage, unless it is meant to help the APC learn valuable lessons and undertake essential damage control. There are, however, key issues that need careful handling. The reckless attempt by the Senate to repeal the laws setting up the CCT and amend criminal administration provisions has mercifully been halted. The President’s steadfast commitment not to interfere with the judicial process to operate as designed should be complemented by vigilance over other powerful interests that many want to tinker with it, either in pursuance of his interests, or theirs’. The APC should prepare for all eventualities. If Saraki in convicted and ceases to be Senate President, it should expect the type of turbulence that could quite possibly deprive it of the Senate Presidency. Many of its Senators would quite happily work with a Senate President who is from the PDP, and the upper chamber on the whole could become more difficult to do business with. Not enough work is being done to keep APC Senators in line, and the anti-corruption war is daily obliterating the partisan division.

At this stage, the die is cast in terms of the conduct of the trial to its logical conclusion. No major interest is, however, likely to wait for the outcome to act. Even as he faces a trial he had fought hard to avoid, Saraki is not a finished man. Between him and his friends in and outside the Senate, he could do some serious damage to the house. PDP and APC Senators will scheme to exact advantages out of his travails. Powerful interests in the APC will prepare to beat chests over victories in clipping his wings. The fight against corruption will register a casualty, and reinforce greater resistance in quarters that ought to assist it. The party will most likely be weakened by the pervasive influence of powerful individuals who would have had their say in this saga.

President Buhari will have to deal with the consequences of a position that substantially isolates him from processes, even where he has strong interests he needs to protect. With three years to go in its mandate, the APC should learn the right lessons from the Saraki saga. One of these, hopefully, is that the past is the architect of the present, but the future is built by leaders who soil boots in the murky waters of politics to save key goals from being swamped.

Chibok Girls

            "If you cannot hold a child in your arms, hold it in your heart". Ethiopian Proverb.

           The gaping hole in the nation's heart left by the audatious abduction of about 250 girls from their school in Chibok, Borno State two years ago is being revisited with a flurry of activities. Some hope is being rekindled that all or most of the abducted girls are alive and well by a video making the rounds, showing some of the girls in apprently healthy state. This week has been covered in red, the colour of the movement spawned by the fate of the girls. The nation will be reminded that it will have no rest until the girls taken away by Boko Haram and pushed beyond reach by incredible ineptitude and complacency by a leadership that could have snatched them back. This week, parents and the communities of these girls who had thought that the nation and the world had moved away from their plight will be reminded, to borrow language from Dame Patience Jonathan, that no be only dem waka go.
  

              The abduction of schoolgirls from Chibok secondary school will rank in magnitude of impact with the bombing of the UN Building and Police Headquaters in Abuja by Boko Haram. The UN Building bombing alerted the world to the existence of a group, until then seen as a local band of aggrieved persons, now developing into a lethal force with frightening capabilities. The Police Headquaters and other bombings which took hundreds of lives registered Boko Haram as an organization with the confidence and competence to use terror with maximum effect. While these events could have been explained in terms that suggest intelligence failure and relative novelty of terror as a security threat in Nigeria, the abduction of the Chibok schoolgirls was clearly evidence of monumental failure of the Nigerian state to effectively challenge and defeat  Boko Haram after three years of a vicious  war.

The abductions exposed a leadership lacking in the most elementary capacities to protect citizens. It soon became public that the abductions could have been prevented by an alert military with capabilities to stop it. After it occurred, there were still opportunities to retrieve the girls in the first few days and weeks  of their ordeal. There are likely to be world records in the scale of insensitivity and incompetence to be found in  a President taking weeks to acknowledge and admit that the abductions did take place, and the tragic comedy of his wife holding court, invoking God  and accusing everyone of cooking up the abductions to smear her husband. The outrage against the abductions then spawned a national movement with massive support, and triggered a global indignation no one could ignore.

 

The #BringBackOurGirls movement grew out of the spontaneous, if naive, expectations that the Jonathan administration could be pressured to free the girls. It soon became evident to parents, activists and the community that Jonathan lacked the decisiveness and commitment necessary to bring the girls back. The world began to move on to the next drama, and the national movement dug in as a major irritant of an administration that needed a constant reminder on its conscience. Jonathan was sunk by an unprecedented array of grievances across the nation, but the sustained efforts of the few women and men who maitained an unbroken vigil over the girls, mobilized and politicised parents and the communities while retaining global attention will be accorded a pride of place in ridding the nation of a leadership that had locked itself up, gobbling the resources of the nation as thousands of women, children and young men were taken away by Boko Haram.

 

To be sure, the abduction of schoolgirls from Chibok was only one in a long tradition of abductions of women and young men by Boko Haram. Not a few Nigerian communities who had borne the brunt of the atrocities of Boko Haram were suprised by the speed and magnitude of the response by Nigerians and the global community to the Chibok abductions. Parents of schoolchildren murdered while they slept in domitories in Yobe State, or in classrooms in Mubi and other places wondered why their cries failed to register in Washington, Kiev and Pretoria. But then these villagers had not known the powers of social media, the tool that raised the Chibok abductions to the status of an atrocity the world was bound to notice.

 

One year afte the abductions, Nigerians showed President Jonathan the door. He left, leaving President Buhari with a terrible legacy of thousands of abducted people, including the Chibok girls, in the custody of Boko Haram. A year since he became President, the girls are still with terrorists, and Buhari is having to deal with with a very sensitive and complex problem which time and circumstances have made a lot more difficult. In spite of successes in freeing many communities from the grips of the insurgency and limiting its fighting capacities in many respects, there are still people  who will measure the scale of his success in terms of the freedom of the Chibok girls. They too will be right, because this conflict has many angles and casualties.

 

President Buhari will now be dealing with a highly mobilized Chibok community with a painfully-developed  capacity for cynicism over governments and leaders. He will contend with a powerful movement that sprung up around the abductions and the plight of the girls, and now operates as a highly visible vigilante in a war in which no side is clean. He will find in this movement a resistance and hostility founded by experience, and a clout fed by the purity of its mission. He will encounter a movement with a mantle of protector of rights and welfare of civilian victims in a conflict that has had very little room for transparency.

 

The intense outcry over the abductions from Chibok would have alerted Boko Haram that it has in its custody a major asset, raising the stakes for their freedom, and leaving President Buhari with the task of crippling the insurgency and freeing  girls who acquire more value by the day. The endemic quarrels between parents and the community on the one hand, and government on the other, have prevented the utilization of opportutinities and avenues for raising and dealing with important, if uncomfortable matters. These include the need  to influence perceptions, and cultivate an understanding that hardly any of the Chibok girls will come back as abducted. Some may not return at all, and those who do may not all return together. Most who return will require, along with parents and the community, prolonged  and sensitive management and handling for their future. There will be massive adjustments of expectations, much of which needs to be undertaken in rancour-free and supportive enviroment.

 

It is reasonable to assume that President Buhari is actively seeking all avenues for the release of the girls from Chibok and others in captivity. There  must be many issues to consider, such as genuiness of channels for negotiations, the price of freeing the girls, the state of the current campaigns and how it will be affected by the freedom of the girls by all sides and other strategic considerations. While all these should be accorded serious consideration, it is also important that improvements are made in government-Chibok community relations, and the movement which campaigns for  their release. Rebuilding the school in Chibok should also be accorded a priority. For two years, young females who could have been our very own daughters have been held by terrorists. Many more whose  capture and fate have been less heralded are also wondering if fellow Nigerians still care about them. This is the time to remind ourselves that we will never abandon them.

Fuelling Discontent

          All well-governed states and wise princes have taken care not to reduce the nobility to despair, and the people to discontent.

N. Machiavelli.

These horrendous petrol queues may disappear before 29th of May, the first anniversary of an election that held the hope for an end to a past marked by fuel shortages, incessant power failures, bombings and unspeakable levels of plunder and decay. If they do, they will leave scars that will be reminders that the journey to a nation that has fixed its most basic problems still has a long distance to cover. If they do not, they will serve as more potent sources of discontent and resentment that could unite all classes and segments in hostility to the administration. It will be difficult to hear the drumbeats in celebration of a major watershed in the nation's history through the groans and chaos of citizens searching for expensive fuel.

       On March 28th 2015, President Buhari was transformed from a symbol of hope and faith in good leadership into a political leader. Very few people appreciated the full significance of that transformation. Millions of Nigerians saw a man with an aura and an image untainted  by the prevasive corruption which had become synonymous with political office in Nigeria. The bar set by a Buhari victory involved widespread expectations that Nigerians will soon be safe and secure; the corrupt will be made to account and corruption will be severely curtailed; institutions will be rebuilt and the poor will find relief and comfort from governments that will oversee and manage economies that are poor-friendly.

        The rot was, however, much deeper than anyone had thought. The nation waited patiently as President Buhari, now burdened by what he sought and achieved, laboured with decisions and other challenges of leading a nation through the elementery stages of governance. Where does one begin? What can or cannot be done in a political context with pronounced boundries and barricades, some of them erected by interests that were central to the success of his  transformation from a symbol to a leader? Who can be trusted to work with him? What  will be policy priorities and realistic timelines? How does a larger-than-life image become routinized into governance with a face and a character? What is the nature of the opposition? Where are the potential booby traps?

         With two months to his first year as President, most Nigerians have more or less made up their minds about the Buhari administration. The clusters of opinion range from millions who blame past administrations  for all the current  woes of the nation, and see this administration both as its victim and the solution to our problems. These Nigerians retain deep faith that with patience and support, the worst Buhari administration will be better than the best of a past they had just jettisioned. Another cluster acknowledges the potential for real improvements under a Buhari presidency, but are frustrated by seeming inertia in the context of severely limiting economic challenges. A third cluster celebrates appearances of failures to make immediate and sustained impact, even as its champions suffer the same privations shared by all citizens.

         Ordinarily, these clusters of interests and opinions will be substantially preserved, or their boundries will shift on the basis of the manner President Buhari is percieved as a leader, and his administration's capacity to address basic problems are assessed. A worst case scenario is one which unites all three over one or two issues and creates a major, negative perception. This is the scenario that the  current fuel shortage has created for the administration. The vast majority of the poor who were President Buhari's political backbone had never benefitted from the plethora of policies on refined petroleum that have made billionnaires of a few Nigerians. Regulated pump prices have been a fiction preserved over the poverty of 7 out of every 10 Nigerians for decades. Rural populations bought the commodity strictly as offerred, and it is quite possible that this is the only area in the entire industry where the market was influenced by the basic laws of supply and demand.

         Not anymore. In the last few weeks, rural supplies have dried up as speculators sold to elaborate leaks in the system in towns and cities. Where it reaches villages, it  is hardly affordable,and  causes severe distortions in consumer proces,including food prices, making life a lot more intolerable. The high cost of petroleum is compounding a worrying rise in inflation triggered by a weak Naira. In towns and cities, economic production, a small middle class and a burgoening class of economic scavengers are groaning over the audacity of importers, suppliers and distributers who sell to jerrycan owners rather than to vehicle owners. As they wait for hours or days to get petrol at regulated prices, or they squeeze money away from other necessities, millions of Nigerians cannot believe that a Buhari administration will tolerate the situation they are going through. Everyone is at the mercy of events and circumstances which make it difficult to show empathy for leaders and managers of the economy. Life is difficult enough as it is, but this  petrol supply fiasco has made everyone desperate.

         Everyone, that is, except the massive industry that thrives on the nation's misery. Importers, distributers, transporters and regulators make huge amounts as millions of small outlets  jerk up prices as they please. Much of the parasitic layer that feed from the petrol fiasco also believe in, and support President Buhari's commitment to fix the nation, and most of the young men involved would rather have sources of livelihood that last longer than periodic shortages. But  life is good for now, and they do not want it to end.

         The current shortages and leakages that create high cost for petrol have united all classes in massive discontent against an administration that a year ago could confidently have said, never again. President Buhari's tendency to apologise over difficulties does register with many of his supporters, but apologies tend to be double-edged swords. People accept them on the understanding that  things will improve. On the other hand, they provide ammunition for adversaries who use them as evidence of failure. There is also the issue of who offers the apologies,  how often and over what issues. Even the most most committed supporter of President Buhari knows who is the Minister of Petroleum Resources, on whose desk the buck stops. This puts the President directly in the line of anger and frustration of citizens, and in the line of fire of an opposition of many colours, desperate to blunt the edges of the promises for change.

       More than any other issue, this petrol fiasco fast assuming dimensions of a major economic crisis demands a sober and holistic assessment. By all means necessary, these queues must disappear in the next few days. Panic measures that will add to the discontent, such as massive arrests of peddlers of a few liters should be discouraged. Major policy reviews and decisions regarding the structure and operations of the NNPC, deregulation and operations of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and its agencies need to be made as a matter of urgent national priority. Between now and May 29th, this adminstration should convince Nigerians that it has a lot more to offer than apologies and excuses.

If President Buhari Wrote Americans

To remove a fly from a friend's forehead, never use a hatchet.

                                       African Proverb.

 Dear Citizens of United States of America,

I have taken this unusual step to write to you directly as citizens of the United States of American on behalf of the people of Nigeria. I hope  that this message will strengthen the bonds between citizens of two countries with major responsibilities for the state of our increasingly interdependent  world. I also draw confidence from the knowledge that your leaders will view this friendly intrusion in a positive light, particularly in the light of recent developments in our relations when we also received direct and useful advise and messages of solidarity and encouragement from leaders of your great country.

I address you at a time when Nigerians nurture very warm and positive memories of the role of the government and citizens of the United States. We cherish the historic support of your government in ensuring that our last elections made history in many respects, being the most peaceful in our history, producing a credible result and the unprecedented defeat of an administration. The US stood by the people of Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, to break a vicious circle of rigged elections that produced incompetent and insensitive leaders. We owe your nation immeasurable gratitude for helping our nation to safely cross over a critical set of challenges, and today our two nations collaborate on the search for an end to a most vicious insurgency because we have earned global trust. At this moment, we share with you the search for global security and peace and a world that shares its wealth and reduces want and desperation.

Your nation had stood and marched with Africa during most of its trying moments. We have told many of our younger generations of your record in assisting our decolonization and anti-Apartheid struggles. Your businesses and governments have reached out to our enterprenuers and our communities, investing and participating in developing our productive capacities. Our nation has the biggest economy in Africa, and is one of the leading trading partners of the US. We see US economic interests in all sectors of our economy, and the growth and development of our two economies have become intricately linked with each others’ fortunes. The US is home and residence to one of the largest black and African populations in the world, and your nation is home to millions of Nigerians contributing to your economy, while representing a tremendous asset to our nation.

As you will be aware, your presidential elections scheduled to hold in November, 2016 are of immense significance to the world. Nigeria and Africa have very high expectations that this election will raise the bar for democratic governance already at a level your nation should be proud of. Your current President is son of an African student, a great American whom you voted into office on his merit. His election for two terms earned you new respect in Africa. You will therefore appreciate why we expect that the President who succeeds him will continue to inspire Africa and the world. 

Nigerians watch the processes leading to the emergence of candidates and the elections themselves with interests that are far more profound than curiousity. Given our history and experiences with political violence and tendencies which detract from free and fair elections, we are anxious that your elections will be conducted without violence or other acts that will damage your credentials as a leading democratic nation. We worry when a candidate threatens that his supporters will riot if he fails to win nomination. We agonize over allegations over delegates-tampering. We are concerned over rhetoric that offends sensitivities and charts a course that is entirely inconsistent with the history and records of the United States in international relations.

Nigerians have labored for a long stretch of our history  to produce leaders on the basis of credible elections. This has imposed upon us the obligation to respect the rights of all people to freely elect leaders. Ultimately, the next President of the United States will be the product only of your collective will. As friends with a major stake in the manner the United State relates with the world, however, it is our duty to offer advise on some issues that are likely to affect the outcome of the contest. Nigerians share with United State citizens a major burden in the fight against global terror, a substantial element of which claims to draw inspiration from Islam. Our contribution to all the contests currently under way is to advise against creating more enemies for the United State and the rest of the world by making terrorist monsters out of every Muslim. The world’s Muslim population is overwhelmingly opposed to terror. An enlightened and constructive approach with all peoples, faiths and nations is central to the ability of the US and other nations of the world to overcome this global threat, and avoid alienating critical allies.

There are concerns in Nigeria that the large population of our citizens in the US are being singled out and portrayed in very negative light in some debates and campaigns. Remarks which hint at limiting gains and opportunities arising from global movement of labour and capital are being noted with some concern here in Nigeria and Africa. At a time when the world is having to adjust to severe economic challenges, these sentiments fail to do justice to a United States that has led the world through solving many of its limiting challenges. On the whole, we share the concerns of billions of people across the globe who are uncomfortable with prospects of a U.S that will create its own space without due respect and regards for friends and allies, as well as the possibility that hostile interests will respond in a manner that makes the world a lot less secure, competitive and compassionate.

As you will know, Nigeria is going through a major transition. It is a year since our historic elections which gave our nation renewed confidence that we can change its course on the strength of its own people and the support of our friends. We are involved in charting a course for a future in which accountable leadership is the norm; corruption is removed from public offices; the poor share in the wealth of our tremendous national resources, and the wealthy are safe to enjoy their wealth. We are making major strides to destroy the Boko Haram insurgency. Our plans are affected by challenging economic fortunes in the short term, but we have a vision of a great future in which our productive capacities and processes for sharing our wealth will be isolated from massive dislocations and uncertainties.

As Nigerians, we cherish our deep relationships with citizens of the United States on many levels. We have faith in the capacity of citizens of the United State to exercise choices that best suit their interests. These interests include the manner our world operates, as well as the global perception that as a global leader, a future President of the United State will represent the best and most noble of the democratic traditions of the United States.

On behalf of the people of Nigeria, I wish you very peaceful congresses and elections.