How to make 2017 count

Politics, n. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. Ambrose Bierce.

  All that needed to be said about the disappointments and achievements of year of 2016 have been said. The government  of President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged that it had substantially under-performed, blaming factors which  predated it, as well as  new, unforeseen developments that adversely affected the economy and national security. It celebrated substantial progress in the fight against Boko Haram, and even a trickling of success in the return of the Chibok girls as major successes. The campaign against corruption had been flagged, but was being challenged by cynicism over its popularity in circles around the president as well as frustrating limitations in the judiciary and the legislature. Governance below the federal level had avoided much national scrutiny, but citizens in states had  lived with daily excuses from governors echoing the national lamentations over collapsed revenues. Many citizens were bewildered by state governments that did not pay salaries and pensions but found the means to undertake eye-catching projects. Governors had taken refuge behind the massive profile and clout of the Buhari federal administration to avoid being accountable. Weak political opposition had created the context for disturbing complacency and massive intra-party disputes. The year 2017 will present an opportunity to leaders and the nation to demonstrate that there is political will and faith behind a nation facing one of its biggest challenges. If that opportunity will not be lost, some of these need to be accorded priority.

1)      Rediscover the mission of leadership.

Widespread disenchantment with poor governance and weak political will combined with the appearance of a credible alternative that could lead to national rebirth to produce the Buhari administration. Majority of Nigerians voted for a leadership that was going to fight and defeat insurgents, stop corruption, give jobs to young people and create an economy that did not count its successes in the number of billionaires it created. Most Nigerians believed Buhari will lead the nation to recover its strengths and punish those who bled its unity and resources. His administration was going to be different, the expression of a popular demand behind the need to do things differently. Its worst enemies feared that it will be a tough administration in the character of the leader, and certainly did not envisage that it will be just another administration waiting for elections to seek another mandate. President Buhari and the APC need to rediscover their mission, even if the real challenges of governance have made the re-invention of that messianic aura largely problematic. In plain terms, Buhari cannot be just another President.

2)      Create a sense of urgency.

If there has been a consistent negative trait associated with the Buhari administration, it must be that it routinely takes too long to do too little, or nothing at all. Incredible lethargy and pronounced tardiness in decision-making have long silenced excuses that the need to be meticulous and avoid past mistakes justify delays. In practical terms, the APC has only about a year left to make a telling difference in the quality of leadership which it offers Nigerians. Outside the military and one or two of its agencies, all the basic institutions of state operate without zeal or speed, marking time under an administration that cannot afford to lose a day seemingly sitting on its hands. The nation's challenges demand a pervasive sense of emergency in the manner they are handled. Leaders cannot afford convenience and luxury of delays, because citizens will believe that they either have no solutions, or do not care enough to find solutions.

3)      Change tactics.

At this stage in the life of the administration, it should be seriously considering options in its tactics in achieving key goals. Where the administration lacks financial resources to tackle problems, it should tap the tremendous intellectual and other human resources available to it to find solutions to many social problems. It should re-visit the value of involving greater say for high quality private sector input into the management of the economy. The nation's military cannot fight and win victories against all internal security challenges. Many of these problems require only minimal involvement of military and other security assets to contain, but their resolution require the deployment of strong political will and imaginative utilization of political options. Fighting corruption requires creating strong linkages with other arms of government, as legislators and the judiciary will support or resist the fight against corruption largely on the degree to which they feel they are not primarily set up as its targets. A long-term perspective needs to be employed in this fight against a deeply-entrenched scourge, and public support  has to be vigorously cultivated to survive the appearance that this is a partisan issue.

4)      Re-prioritize.

Massive revenue shortfalls and limited foreign investment should compel a review of priorities and some difficult choices. There are evident positive consequences of the recession which has forced restrictions on imports of particularly food items. These are in markedly improved outputs by mostly small scale farmers that can be sustained with some encouragement through enlightened policies and incentives to producers. The rising cost of living is felt more by the elite and urban populations, and there may be some advantages in focussing more on the rural poor who, in any case, is the backbone of the APC administration. Social intervention policies may deliver on election promises, but poor design and faulty implementation as well as their potential for deepening partisan divides and political alienation and high costs of administration could seriously detract from their impact. Between now and the middle of next year, the political benefits of N-Power and cash handouts  may be difficult to quantify and translate into political capital. The billions spent on them, on the other hand could be re-assigned towards areas with greater multiplier effects and social support. Funding of government activities is still enslaved to a process that demands that every agency must be funded, even if all it does is to pay salaries. Within this year, government can undertake a comprehensive review of its size, commitments and resources, not in the manner of the so-called Oronsaye report that suggests that size can be reduced without respect for laws or social consequences, but in a manner that outlines a short and long-term restructuring that will produce an affordable government at the center, and state governments that do not exist only to pay salaries. Rehabilitation and expansion of critical infrastructure and adoption of policies that allow private sector access to managing roads, airports and seaports should be given priorities.

 5)   Address quality of management.

The nation will forgive President Buhari for making  wrong choices in appointment of Ministers and key aides, but it will not tolerate a continuation of a team that has created  near-universal consensus as performing well below one that should actualize his vision. It cannot be the easiest of jobs working under the imposing shadow of President Buhari, with little resources and institutions and processes of governance and bureaucracies that appear never to have known what happened in 2015, but a few have stood out, while many have  only created an image of poor decision-making and a reluctance to revisit mistakes around the president. Nothing much will change in terms of rediscovery of  the administration's mission, creating a stronger momentum  for greater impact, taking initiatives, setting new goals and achieving them or inspiring a lethargic bureaucracy to respond to the demands of improved service delivery under the current management team of the president. The quality of people involved in running state administrations is quite possibly one of the worst in the nation's history. There are very few change agents and champions in administrations that came to power promising change.

6)            Be political.

          This time next year, the APC will have a stronger opposition, much of it made up of people who laboured with President Buhari to create the APC. His party will require very strong muscles to limit the damage that will become evident as powerful and ambitious party men do what was done to the PDP in 2013 and 2014.President Buhari will be put under tremendous pressure to make his plans for 2019 known, and this will cause further turbulence within his party, whatever he decides. This is the time to comprehensively survey the terrain and begin to build, or rebuild platforms, alliances and new territories in hitherto hostile areas. The intimate linkages between partisan politics and  national security will be made prominent as politicians calculate what their assets are in the fight for control of the nation in 2019.The  president could slow down or head-off a crises involving massive depletions of powerful allies by engineering fresh concessions that gives them attractive incentives to stay close. He could also commence a delicate process of grooming and empowering a potential successor for the 2019 elections, in the event that he decides not to run.

Pretentious nebulous verbosity?

       Like a chameleon: one eye on the future, one eye on the past. Malagasy proverb.

     Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, the Friday back page columnist of the Daily Trust wrote a preview contribution under the title,'2017 Trend Analysis and the Contours of Inertia'. In an internet group we belong to, the respected law professor, Awwal Yadudu took up Jibrin on his projection that the Shia issue could represent the major security problem in 2017 and on the value of projections generally, concluding with a reference to the book by A. Stanislav, Social Science as Sorcery (1972), described by Wikipedia as an indictment  of "pretentious nebulous verbosity which is endemic in modern social sciences".

         Except  for the rude reminder represented by Donald Trump's victory to the effect that all received wisdom should be interrogated,Stanislav's book here is really anachronistic.Projections and trend analyses are widely-used and perfectly legitimate tools employed by all policy and decision makers in governance and the economy. Looking ahead is risky but rewarding if you get at least some of the projections right. The material below was what I published around this time last year, representing my understanding of key issues that the nation will deal with in 2016.I will leave you to judge,with the benefits of hindsight,if it represents pretentious nebulous verbosity.Before you do that please join me to pray for the soul of 

       Malam Sanusi Abubakar, an economist who soiled his boots in the best traditions of an activist. May Allah grant him Aljanna.

      Happy New Year.

2016: A watch list

          This year will define the basic character of the administration of President Buhari and highlight opportunities and limitations that will challenge the administration and the nation. In this first, full working year of President Buhari, a number of major issues should be kept under watch.

1.      The economy

The Nigerian economy will be severely challenged in 2016. The dramatic fall in crude prices and uncertainties around attracting increased foreign investment will slow down growth. Plugging major leakages in revenue collection could improve available funds, but institutions involved in raising revenues need to be strengthened and their capacities improved. The pro-poor provisions in the 2016 budget are ambitious and bold, but their successful implementation will be predicated on quality conceptualization, planning and sustainability. Major fiscal and monetary policy decisions will represent areas of intense interest, as all social segments will feel the effects of an economy that will go through a difficult period. APC and PDP legislators will test their strengths on budget debates, and the legislature as a whole may fight against some of its provisions which affect them

2.      Security

The Boko Haram insurgency is damaged, but not crippled to a point where it will not continue to threaten populations. There are questions about the credibility of the military’s successes, principally because of conflicting narratives over the presence of insurgents in Sambisa forest, in towns and villages as well as cells in many areas that can strike with guns or suicide bombs. The captive Chibok girls will continue to haunt the fight against Boko Haram, and managing two million IDPs will be a major challenge for the administration.

The investigation of former militant leaders will trigger a resurgence of violent activity in the Niger Delta. Increased military presence in the area will pitch the militants and the military in direct confrontations under an administration determined to stamp its authority against violence. The Biafra agitation will be tested in terms of its support and capacity to take on the Nigerian state, with the on-going trials of its leaders. The Shiite movement in the North will continue to be a source of stress and tension, and the manner the state handles the detention and trial of its leader will be a major factor in determining future Shiite – government relations. Managing national security in the context of increasingly limited resources will be a major problem for the administration.

 3.     Fighting corruption

The administration enjoys popular support in its fight against corruption. Spectacular revelations about massive theft of public funds in many sectors of the economy suggest that many high profile individuals, including some who are pillars of the ruling party investigated and prosecuted. There are concerns over the degree to which the legislature will support the President in this ever-expanding campaign, with many legislators likely to be fingered, or have their cases re-opened. There are also legitimate concerns regarding the integrity and capacity of the judiciary to process possibly hundreds of cases. The possibility of the state being stonewalled by a weak and compromised judiciary and powerful interests with considerable mileage in avoiding penalties is real. Nigerians  will be frustrated at the pace of investigations and trials, and there is a genuine possibility that too much of the administration’s time and energy will be devoted to pursuing corruption cases at the expense of imaginative and productive policies that should  rebuild the economy and strengthen institutions of governance.

4.      Public institutions                 

The Buhari administration inherited weak and compromised public institutions that are vital to re-engineering the economy, plugging leakages and reducing corruption. It will need to radically improve basic policing institutions to turn the tide against crime and internal security challenges. The public service has been very badly damaged by the previous administration, and it will need an extensive review of its basic philosophy, operations and leadership to bring it up to the required level as the key institution in protecting public interest and serving as  the foundation of good governance.

5.     Governance and politics

The real character of the All progressives Congress will begin to show as the spoils of victory are distributed and the real business of running the country becomes the major focus. Key elements in the APC, such as the character and persona of President Buhari, the often-conflicting interests of very powerful office-holders who hold varied opinions over the real meaning of the ‘change’ mantra, the chieftains from parties who led and submitted to the merger, and Nigerians who expect dramatic and quality changes in the conditions of their lives will clash or reinforce each other this year. The manner President Buhari relates with the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be an important factor in the degree to which he succeeds in pushing through critical legislation, or is frustrated in the fight against corruption.

Disgruntled party chieftains can be ignored only up to a point. The lessons from the damage done to the defeated PDP by its members who defected with much of its assets will need to be carefully read and understood. Intra-party disputes will become more pronounced, and will be made worse unless the party is made strong and relevant by all political office holders at all levels. The administration will need to pay close attention to managing regional and religious threats, and its disposition to elites with capacities for mischief or improving popular support will be tested. Ambitious politicians with an eye on 2019 could divert attention and energy from creating synergy in policies and programmes at all levels of government.  

6.      People Democratic Party (PDP)

The PDP is unlikely to recover from its many and varied challenges any time soon. Its internal schisms and the large numbers of its present and former leaders who are being mentioned in scams of all types will deplete its capacity to re-invent itself. It is unlikely to benefit from disputes within APC, or provide an effective opposition outside the legislature. Nonetheless, its members in the National Assembly are a vital asset, and they could exploit intra-APC disputes to damage the administration’s plans and programmes.

7.      President Jonathan

The noose is increasingly tightening around President Jonathan's neck, with more and more revelations about scams and outright thefts that took place under his watch. It is a matter of time before his personal role and others, such as Dr Okonjo-Iweala, Allison-Maduekwe and other key ministers and officials are more closely scrutinized. President Buhari seems bent on extending the frontiers of enquiry into the management and abuse of public funds and other assets. It is unlikely that President Jonathan and former senior ministers will evade complicity in some of them. President Buhari may have to raise the profile of the fight against corruption and the inmates in E.F.C.C holding cells by nodding towards the investigation and possible trial of the former President and key ministers.

  

8.      The Buhari factor

Nigerians will become better acquainted with the persona and character of President Buhari. So far he has come across as determined and focused. He has been the face and voice of his administration, and has shown a personal trait of intolerance against corruption and threats to national security. In 2016, Nigerians will see whether he plans to yield some space to his Vice President and some of his ministers with solid accomplishments, to complement his image of strong personal integrity and unbending will. His temperament and disposition will be tested by the capacity of corrupt people to fight back, to be frustrated by compromised or weak institutions, or by the imperative of making compromises where they become necessary. President Buhari will retain wide popular support as he fights corruption, but in 2016, he also has to lay the foundations of solid socio-economic achievements. These will be his asset as an elite steeped in a tradition of pillage and plunder fight him back.

2017: An optimist's nightmare.

In its first full year in charge, 2016, the Buhari administration registered a major success in fighting the Boko Haram insurgency and signaled a determination to fight endemic corruption. During the year, however, just about every index for judging the success of an administration that had raised massive expectations will be solidly in the negative. A combination of obvious success in the fight against the insurgency and pronounced failures to shield the citizenry from the effects of an economy in deep recession will be of some comfort to an optimistic  projection, the type that starts on the assumption that things couldn't  possibly be worse in 2017 than they were in 2016.Sadly for the country and the administration, there is no solid basis for this assumption. In spite of the evidence of  strong will, it is evident that much of what the administration requires to make a major difference are  vaguely-articulated, poorly-supported by strong institutions and processes, and deeply contingent on a political environment that is not being well-managed. In 2017, President Buhari will have an opportunity to reverse a perception  of poor management of an economy in deep recession and convince Nigerians and the global community that the nation is secure and safe for citizens and foreign investment respectively. It will be a  make-or-break year, because 2018 will be mostly about the elections of 2019.

The reported success of the military in capturing the last stronghold of Boko Haram in Sambisa forest represents a major achievement for the administration. The challenges beyond this major milestone are going to demand the same level of political will to deal with, and massive resources to sustain the fight and deal with the horrendous humanitarian crises that the insurgency has spawned. The capacities of the military and intelligence services will be challenged to design strategies for dealing with an insurgency that could mutate, adopt strategies suitable to a threat without captive territory or survive as low intensity conflict that will frustrate the speed of recovery, resettlement and rehabilitation. The military will need to maintain presence and vigilance and improve liaison with the military and intelligence services in neighboring countries. The Nigerian military will be stretched to provide essential service in many other areas such as the Niger Delta, numerous outfits designed to secure or preserve peace, as well as areas of emerging threats such as Southern Kaduna and extensive forests that are providing cover for crimes such banditry, cattle rustling and kidnapping. Without a radical improvement in policing capacities and a willingness to explore options to the use of force in dealing with many internal security challenges, Nigerians will be exposed to serious threats to lives and livelihood in 2017.

The administration will need to examine the value of engaging the Shia in charting a course towards a peaceful co-existence between a faith and a nation founded on laws. The  current stand-off amounts to an escalation of a conflict with frightening implications. The commitment of President  Buhari's administration to the rule of law will be tested by the manner his government responds to judicial orders such as those related to release of leader of the Shia. Real dialogue with armed groups destroying oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta will have to involve more than the high profile Dialogue Committee which currently says it represents the communities in the region. The administration's political presence in the South East will need to be strengthened to effectively engage or isolate the threat of IPOB. Significantly, the tendency to consign security issues to judicial custody should be discouraged, and, in 2017,the administration will have to improve its capacities to deal with threats with imagination, decisiveness and an awareness of the intimate linkages between politics and national security.

Managing national security under multiple challenges and an economy that is unlikely to operate with marked improvements in 2017 will sharpen popular perceptions regarding the Buhari administration. In spite of improvements in the price of crude towards the end of 2016,the price in 2017 is unlikely to rise well beyond current levels. Export levels will still be affected by the activities of armed groups and the success of the signaled intention of the administration to engage these groups in dialogue to stop sabotage of assets. Nigerians will blame the administration for rising cost of living, in spite of attempts that will continue to be made to blame the past for the state of the economy. More stringent demands will continue to be made for better policies and quality of Ministers and key officials. By the end of 2017,Nigerians will largely have made up their minds regarding the competence of President  Buhari in managing the economy. It is unlikely that beyond the hardest core of his supporters, many Nigerians will accept excuses and apologies over rising levels of poverty.

The administration will also be challenged to prove that its anti-corruption campaigns have yielded more than a  list of people facing trials against corruption. Nigerians will use convictions, forfeitures  used to mitigate revenue shortfalls, evidence that the campaign recognizes no partisan boundaries as well as the  outcome of the investigations of high-ranking officials which the President has just ordered to judge the impact of the anti corruption campaigns. The pressure for immediate gratification could divert attention from painstaking and substantive institutional and other reforms that should reduce the nation's vulnerability to corruption in the long run. The National Assembly could be a major asset or an obstacle to the fight against corruption, depending on the manner legislators perceive their interests and their fates in the 2019 elections.

The politician in President Buhari will be severely challenged in 2017.He does not appear to have paid much attention to the state of his party, the APC, and the next few months will reveal how much damage has been done to an election-winning coalition if many pillars on which it rests relocate ambitions or re-design strategies, leaving his charisma, now interrogated by the challenges of exercising power, badly exposed. On the whole, it could be said that history, and a seeming reluctance to push the frontiers for change have combined to suggest that the administration is unlikely to break many new grounds in 2017.But then again, President Buhari could manage adversity to make history again. If he will, he will have to make 2017 the year to make a real start.