Nine stitches

Nigerian politics today shows the truism in the saying, ‘a stitch in time saves nine’. It seems all the major characters in this rapidly developing drama had ignored to make use of a vital ingredient in politics: timing. Now everyone is scrambling to gain the upper hand, reclaim lost territory, control damage or throw wild punches hoping that they will  hit the right target. In the next few months, Nigerian voters will be asked to decide who made the right moves, who took the sensible risks or who made life-time blunders. What happens between now and then will be determined by political intelligence, huge resources and the disposition of agents of the Nigerian state.

 It now seems clear that Saraki’s side had delayed bolting out of the APC until the fear of the Buhari mystique and the EFCC had decimated its ranks  of the big names that were its natural first eleven. Now Saraki’s side is out, but not out of danger. Until the National Assembly resumes in September, they will have to fight for their political lives to improve their ranks and acceptance as the side that decides Buhari’s political future. Buhari himself had to be vigorously awakened by a handful of governors and a  new party chairman to the reality that politics is all about protecting and expanding turfs. By the time he descended into the real world of deals, pleas and huge doses of humility ,a big chunk of his turf had drifted away. The subjects and objects of this huge tussle themselves were so engrossed in the search for options that they left all their flanks exposed. It was not a question of if, but when they would leave the party, a situation that left little room for unanticipated maneuvers. The major receptacle of the outpouring of APC’s losses, the PDP, was poorly prepared to handle the largess, or it couldnt believe its luck. It may now find that it has too little room for the  defectors, or it may fail to unseat Buhari because it is unable to digest much of its old and fairly new ambitions.

 All this frenzy will be amusing if it were not seriously about the nation’s future. Buhari will now have to carefully count, almost on a daily basis, how many of the satellites that revolved around him are still there. This will be very stressful for a politician who had routinely  ignored too many turning points. The strategy of denouncing all the defectors as worthless and irredeemably corrupt will have many blunt edges. These were the people who made a major contribution to his electoral success, the same people his corruption-fighting government co-habited with for three years. He is left with a rump of loyalists that bear a disturbing resemblance to those who defected, people with cases before the EFCC who may be holding on only out of fear or the hope that he still has some capacity to help them win elections. He has highly elusive numbers, but not the quality he needs to say his camp is better qualified to fight corruption, fix the economy and secure large populations. When he takes stock, he will find in his camp deeply unpopular governors, incompetent ministers, handpicked party leaders, senators that could be in jail next week if the judiciary and the EFCC  do their jobs.He may yet find that many of them are greek gifts when he attempts to create harmony out of bitter enemies, such as el-Rufai and Shehu Sani.

The Saraki camp must be involved in critical damage assessment, and how much political asset it needs to make it feel secure. The challenges it has before it are mind-boggling: managing ambitions of returnees and traditional presidential flag-seekers; creating room for Kwankwaso in Kano without offending hostile interests; balancing the gain in Tambuwal against hostility from Wammako, Aliero and Yarima in the strategic north west; making full use of the outing of Speaker Dogara from the APC among northern Christians; eroding the remnants of Buhari’s support in the middle belt without risking a backlash from poor handling of religious politics; deepening the divide around Tinubu in the south west; consolidating strong resistance against Buhari in the south east and the south south even in the face the fear of persecution of powerful politicians by the federal government; and above all, demystifying Buhari’s infallibility among millions of northern voters.

They will have to do all these with very little time; while fighting a regime desperate to retain  power, and in a party which may still prove a serious hard sell in many parts of the country. Its considerable numbers of defectors must make immediate and pronounced impact by squeezing APC’s space. Their biggest liability is the good case to be made that they are all about getting more power than they had under the Buhari administration. The Buhari camp will twist  the knife with propaganda that they merely want to return the nation to the Jonathan-type kleptocracy.

The nation will be challeged to choose between politicians who will fight for new mandates with old, tired weapons. President Buhari’s depleted camp will be hesitant to campaign around security in a nation that gave it full endorsement mainly  to secure citizens. These days, in its stronghold of the north, death and destruction stalk communities that were substantially spared the ravages of Boko Haram before the Buhari presidency. The Boko Haram epicenter is not out of the woods yet, and terrorists remind the nation of this every once in a while with suicide bombs and audacious assaults on communities and the military. Buhari’s fight against corruption is visible only in the number of court cases against a handful of politicians, many of them filed  long before he became president. Figures from sales of crude oil represent the only changes in an economy that does not create new jobs or opportunities. The assault against a resurgent opposition will be led by a president in his 70s whose vision is still as unclear as the state of his health.

The job of his opposition is no less daunting. It will have to prove that it is more than a combination of the left-over of the discredited PDP and defectors whose only political goals are to recapture and abuse power. It will have to resolve major tussles between those who think its future requires new vision, new faces and a new brand against those who believe that its traditional reliance on big, familiar names and tons and tons of money is the way to go. It may have too little time to convince enough Nigerians that it wants to do more than just replace the Buhari administration. Can it sell new ideas and strategies on security, job creation and building new foundations for a nation in search of a future?

 If we stay awake until end of September, we may very well witness a desperate dash in place of a long distance race.

Buhari and Saraki

I would give the proverbial arm to know what President Buhari and Senate President Bukola Saraki said to each other last week Thursday. Still, the photo smiles of a tired-looking President, VP, Saraki and a posse of governors (who presumably, midwifed a meeting of the two people with potentially the greatest impact on the 2019 elections) was a collector’s item. It has been in the air that Saraki was leading an exodus of powerful and severely aggrieved APC politicians, and  President Buhari was treating the threat in his characteristic manner: either it will all go away, or it will be someone else’s responsibility to deal with. The comfort is in knowing that this week, it will most likely all spill out. It is that season of high drama, risky gambles and earth-shaking developments that will lay out the boundaries of the contests for elective offices next year.

Four years ago this month, Saraki’s group absconded with a huge chunk of the APC’s assets, and were settling in nicely into the new coalition that was the APC, leaving a fatal gap in the PDP. The tables are now turning. The political renegades say they had found no home in the APC and appear, in all likelihood, to be headed back to PDP. They also appear to have picked a substantial number of other aggrieved APC politicians along the way. President Buhari’s fixers with some political antennae must have been alarmed enough to shut out the let-them-go chorus that had been dominant in the air until now. Arrogant complacency over Saraki's wrecking crew's threat to the APC must have worried a few around a President not used to panicking over opposition. It now appears that President Buhari was convinced that he had to persuade Saraki to call off the rebellious hoard  that had all but factionalized the party.

Now, let your imagination roam around what President Buhari could  have said to a man he had prosecuted for three years until the Supreme Court said he was innocent, and that his trial had been engineered by other interests outside the powers of the Court of Conduct Tribunal. In general terms, Buhari’s propagandists have created a role for Saraki as the scoundrel-in-chief in the anti-corruption war. In the last three months, Buhari’s police had strongly hinted that Saraki was the leader of an armed robbery gang in his home state. Many of Saraki’s fellow-travelers also bear deep scars from altercations with law and order agencies and governors who appeared to enjoy free hands to make enemies for the president. The party structure had shut out an entire segment of elected members of the APC, making it virtually impossible for them to contest fairly for re-election. Scores of Senators and dozens of members of the House of Representatives can only win back mandates if they contest on other party platforms. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara who is the highest ranking elected northern Christian in the ruling APC has been stripped of all influence and presence in his State by his governor. There are a number of governors in Saraki’s group who are unsure whether the APC can or will deliver them another mandate.

President Buhari obviously assumes that Saraki has awesome powers of forgiveness and the clout to lead a large group of very bitter politicians who are convinced they will get better deals elsewhere, back to the APC. In fairness, it must also be assumed that the President had offered Saraki & Co some incentives to stay, but what could they be? He cannot dismantle the elaborate party structures put in place by governors to keep Saraki’s people out. He cannot persuade governors to make up with injured adversaries, some of whom suffer precisely because they covet the governor’s places. He cannot call off the EFCC from pursuing suspects without doing serious damage to his fragile claim to fighting corruption. He will not stand down for another person, nor can he convincingly promise to be a different person or president. He has little time left to make major changes in his government to affect improvements in the quality of governance.

President Buhari could promise Saraki’s people to be altogether a different leader if they all stay put and get him re-elected, but will they believe him? Already in his 70s, he is pretty much settled in his ways, and these do not include pronounced traits for charting new courses, living outside the past or designing radically new options. If he has another four years, will he run a more effective and inclusive adminstration? Will he dismantle the tiny, rigid circle of relations to whom he appears to have consigned huge powers to run the country? Will he eschew the tendency to ignore vital political relationships; assume a firmer control over the decision-making process; and respect the rule of law more diligently in a four-year period when he could afford to be less accountable? Will his frail health hold enough to allow him to personally offer strong leadership in a nation desperate to be secured, healed, united and developed? Can he be trusted by people who see him basically a vindictive, narrow -minded leader who has deep disdain for the basic mechanics of politics?

If Senator Saraki walks with a swagger these days, it will not be the result of the vindication of his innocence by the Supreme Court. True, that  verdict must have removed a huge psychological restraint on an ambitious politician, but the swagger will hide deep concerns that his group’s  destination is by no means a distinctly better option than staying, as we speak. They are working to put together a coalition around their old party, the PDP, but that will only give it a thin coat of paint which will not cover its basic character. His camp, which is still dangerously exposed to subversion, has many doubts over their ability to sell the PDP as a better choice  than Buhari’s APC, even potentially poorer without them. It will be interesting to see how much Saraki’s people can make PDP change its character, and how much difference they can make to its chances to defeat the APC. In 2015, they reinforced the APC’s key selling point, which was Buhari. If they leave now, Buhari will be the only asset available to the APC, as well as  its major liability. Can Buhari defeat a poorly-rebranded coalition using only his bruised persona and a ragged scorecard?

Saraki and his fellow travelers have two options. They can continue  to perch  on the margins of the APC with their record of  disloyalty to Buhari and trust that the future will be kind to them. Or they can leave and do all they can to defeat Buhari, because life for them under Buhari’s second term will be thoroughly unbearable.

Text of Welcome and Keynote Address

By Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, OON.

Extraordinary Summit of Leaders and Elders of Nigeria.

Wesdesday,18th July,2018,Abuja.

Protocols,

 I am humbled and honoured by this opportunity to deliver the Welcome and Keynote address at this historic Summit of Leaders and Elders of Nigeria. In these challenging days when the very foundations of our nation are often questioned by all and sundry, it is my hope that Nigerians are sitting up and taking note of this event. They will see, without any ambiguity, an unfamiliar union of Nigerians brought together by the realization that no one section of our country can achieve any meaningful goal of development or security alone. Nigerians will see in this setting a strategic closing of ranks around certain fundamentals, a deliberate step towards leaning on each other to solve particular and general problems.

This Summit is evidence that the nation is successfully revisiting one of its authentic and most valuable assets, which is its stock of elders and leaders. As Africans, we know that our communities are rooted in the wisdom and experiences of elders. Our history is a patchwork of follies of ignoring this asset, as well as the values of turning to it in the most trying times of need. There is no better time than now to pool together our entire stock of elders and experiences of leaders to put at the disposal of those whom destiny and our mandates have made our leaders today. No one needs worry about the taunting of the ill-informed and the mischievous who question the value and credibility of elders and leaders such as those assembled here today. It is enough that we know what to do when our communities and our nation are challenged for direction, for vision, for courage or caution. This Summit is as representative of Nigeria as the best-designed institutions of state, and the nation will do well to pay due attention to because it represents the beginning of a momentum that with a clear vision and an intrinsic value.

This Summit represents a bridge across all Nigerian communities. It speaks of a vast foundation of commonness of our challenges as a people, as well as the futility of damaging quarrels over matters we can best solve together. It is inspired by a genuine desire to lend support to leadership at all levels, whether that leadership asks for that support, or is uncomfortable with it. This Summit is the elder who insists that the goat  will not give birth while tethered. It is not the actualization of an idle wish, but the culmination of very demanding discussions and engagements  that successfully lowered barricades and barriers we have erected our the past decades around our communities. In this hall, there is a string resolve to work together so that every Nigerian can live in the realities of our ideals, which is to live in peace with dignity and to pursue progress unhindered by region, religion or ethnicity.

The decision to create a common national platform from all the regional and socio-cultural groups is a major breakthrough in the search for  solutions that have made every Nigerian a living grievance. I commend the tenacity of our elders who saw real possibilities in collaboration, leaders who felt incomplete because they are unable to lead in a situation where every section is pulling in its own direction, and elders who are experienced in managing complex situations. In this hall we can commit to protecting the rights of Fulani herders who are only interested in living in peace and herding their only source of livelihood. We can speak for the farmer who is threatened by violence from his land and livelihood. We can speak for communities that need each other to survive and develop; communities that long to be relocated away from IDP camps; communities that live in fear from the next attack and see enemies in every stranger; and communities that are losing faith in a nation that has room for everyone.

Distinguished elders and leaders, my prayer is that the fire you lit will never be extinguished. I hope younger Nigerians and our leaders will listen to the voices of this Summit. They will experience a world that can exist without hate, a nation that can deliver on the promise to be just to all, to protect the weak and not penalise the strong.

I have listed a number of personal observations I hope will be useful to the Summit as it examines the state of security in which we live as Nigerians:

a) The nation is facing unprecedented spate of violence from familiar sources as well many new fronts, with vast tracts of the nation completely at the mercy of marauding killers, inter- communal conflicts, violent crimes, kidnapping and violent  urban gangs;

b)The nation’s entire security and law and order assets appear incapable of arresting the drift towards pervasive and widespread conflicts and violent crimes which make every citizen a potential victim;

c)Fear and uncertainty are fuelling narratives that create convenient enemies, and many communities are in danger of coming to terms with permanent state of insecurity;

d) The failure of the government to arrest and successfully prosecute killers is creating the impression of a weak state in which killers and criminals operate almost at will;

e) Entire communities have been uprooted and placed at the mercy of an unprepared state and the elements. Livelihood will be disrupted for many years to come;

f) Hate, suspicion and fear are driving dangerous barriers in community relations in many parts of the country, and governments themselves have been responsible for their spread;

g)Federal and state governments have failed to put forward policies, initiatives or progammes that will improve citizen and community security, improve community relations or mediate conflicts;

h)Security, law and order agencies have not been held accountable for the disastrous collapse of the nation’s security infrastructure;

i) The nation is potentially exposed to more violence as the police fails in its basic responsibilities, the military is stretched beyond its capacities and the challenges of the forthcoming elections will divert resources and attention from basic security responsibilities;

In addition,I would offer these suggestions:

i)                    President Muhammadu Buhari needs to show firmer and more decisive leadership in dealing with alarming scale of killings and other violent claims. It is the responsibility of leadership to secure the  citizen, no matter what the sources or nature of threats to his life and property are.

ii)                  All leaders and citizens have a vital role in improving levels of security. The President’s claims that certain interests and persons are involved in fueling the killings for political reasons must be taken seriously. These persons and interests must be exposed and brought to book. They must not remain as mere excuse for failure to secure citizens and the nation. Heads of security, law and order institutions must be held accountable for failures and lapses. The President should critically assess the levels of competence and commitment of agencies responsible for securing Nigerians and take necessary steps to ensure that only the best and most committed from them are entrusted with responsibility.

iii)                 The nation’s basic security infrastructure must be completely rebuilt on a new philosophy, structure and commitment to security as the prime function of the state.

iv)                The nation should come to terms with the realities of the limitations of the current structure of our union, particularly in the area of security and welfare of citizens. There are compelling grounds for restructuring our federal system in a manner that benefits all sections and interest in the nation. In this respect, the recent initiative of the Senate to initiate a review of the Constitution towards creating State Police should be supported as a matter of the highest national priority. The amendments on devolution of powers should also be revisited by the National and State Assemblies. Nigerians demand that their leaders must operate with requisite sensitivity to the challenges of our existence,and must put aside parochial and divisive sentiments in dealing with national issues.

v)                  Government should  take immediate and decisive steps to do the following:

a)           Address the alarming spread of illegal weapons in the hands of citizens, criminals and communities;

b)          Adopt measures that will hasten the ranching of cattle, and encourage communities to create harmonious working and living relationships with other communities;

c)           Address hate speach it all its ramifications; Design strategies that will encourage improved understanding and unity among all communities in Nigeria;

d)          Address widespead poverty and youth unemployment;

e)           Take decisive steps to demonstrate respect for the rule of law, the sanctity of life and rights of citizens to justice;

f)            Improve popular perception on the fight against corruption by removing any hint of partisanship or bias in the manner cases are investigated and prosecuted;

g)          Assure Nigerians that the 2019 elections will be free and fair, and conducted in an atmosphere devoid of violence.

I thank this Summit for this opportunity to sgare with you my personal views on the search for peace and security in our nation.

May God bless your efforts and our nation.

Communique of the Summit of Northern Groups, held at Arewa House, on Saturday, 24th March, 2018

Leading Northern Groups and Associations held a Summit of their leaders at Arewa House, Kaduna on Saturday 24th March, 2018. The Summit was convened to assess the security, economic and political circumstances of the North and Northern communities in other parts of Nigeria. Specifically, the Summit reviewed the worrying state of insecurity under which virtually all Northerners live; the worsening economic fortunes of the vast majority of Northerners and the options that are available to the North as it prepares to engage the political process towards the elections of 2019.

The Summit noted that in spite of notable successes by the Buhari administration against the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East, many Northern communities still live under its threat. In many other parts of the North, communities are routinely exposed to attacks from shadowy killers, and suspicion and anger at known and suspected killers are pitching Northerners against each other. Armed bandits    terrorize rural communities almost at will, while kidnappings and abductions have assumed alarming notoriety as crimes. The nation's security and law and order assets are stretched beyond points where they can’t provide even the most elementary confidence and protection of citizens. The North has rarely been so exposed to multiple and varied threats.

The economy of the North continues to deteriorate in spite of the evident willingness of Northerners to work hard and earn legitimate incomes. Its basic infrastructure suffers massive deficits in funding while its growing population starves from lack of critical investment in human capital development. Federal government spending is severely tilted against the North, while most State governments only pay lip service to real development in their states. Agriculture shows limited glimpses of recovery, but almost entirely through efforts of peasants and antiquated processes. The North is completely de-industrialized, while the rest of the nation moves towards sustainable growth and development. There is no evidence of bold thinking, strong political will and/or serious concern by any leadership at any level to reverse the alarming decline of the Northern economy.

Since 2015, Northerners have occupied positions with the potential to make decisive differences in the economy, security or political fortunes of the region. The hopes that leaders who have exercised power since 2015 will reverse the abuse and neglect of the region in the previous decade have been betrayed. Weak governance, gross insensitivity and unacceptable levels of incompetence have been compounded by battles of attrition in which northerners have sapped each others' strength. Weak and incoherent responses to provocations from other parts of the country around the imperatives of re-visiting the foundations and structures of the Nigerian state have created the false image of a North without its own positions beyond survival as the parasite of Nigeria. The historic gains in Northern political unity secured by Northern votes in the 2015 elections have been wasted by the poor management of conflicts between and among Northern communities. Today Northern communities are erecting barricades against members of other communities, as well as and politicians who have failed to lead and make impacts in lives of the poor and the vulnerable are daily feeding the people with hate and resentment instead of searching for genuine and lasting solutions. In a region with enough resources for every community or trade, our people are now fighting for morsels, while leaders think of new ways to turn our misery into electoral capital.

The Summit, having undertaken a thorough analysis of the state of the North and our communities, therefore:

1. URGES all leaders, elders and communities to seek peaceful resolutions of conflicts between and among communities. Lives lost, injuries suffered and losses incurred in any community must be redressed firmly and fairly. The roots of co-existence and inter-dependence in all Northern communities are much deeper than the barricades being erected around communities. All persons who are involved in killings and crimes against communities must be brought to book.

2. DEMANDS immediate and decisive steps to improve the security of lives and economic assets in the North by the federal and state governments. Too many communities are at the mercy of attacks from sundry groups of criminals who appear to have unchallenged access to space and weapons.

3. APPEALS to Northern Governors and President Muhammadu Buhari to set in motion serious initiatives towards achieving higher levels of trust among Northern communities which is vital for the imperatives of peace and justice.

4. INSISTS that the routine denial of the rights of the North to its fair share of budgetary allocations by the federal government must cease from the 2018 budget. Northern representatives in the National Assembly must live up to their oaths to protect the rights of their constituencies to equity in the allocation of national resources.

5. WARNS that no Northern politician should expect to be voted for in the next general election unless they demonstrate a willingness to champion a massive assault on poverty and underdevelopment in the North. In this regard, most political office holders from the North are hereby served notice that they have failed the test to lead the region towards economic recovery and growth.

6. ASSERTS the rights of all Northerners to examine all options in political choices they will make in 2019. The leadership selection process must be critically interrogated to present the best leader to Nigeria as a whole. No one should take the North for granted, and it is not for sale. It will resist shedding its blood for any candidate, and will critically scrutinize all politicians who will seek our mandate. At this stage, all options are on the table, and politicians who have betrayed the hopes and mandates of our people should be prepared to suffer rejection, in the same manner the votes of the North rejected the attempt to continue with impunity, corruption and indifference of the previous regime.

 7. ADVISES all Northerners to be alert to plans to weaken the region through the manipulation of our fears and vulnerability and our ethno-religious differences. There must be vigilant scrutiny of opportunities for manipulation by outsiders of our present challenges. We must stand up and unite against those who kill villagers in Kogi, in Zamfara, in Benue, in Adamawa, in Borno, in Kaduna, in Taraba and in every village or town. No Northern blood is more precious than others, and we can only heal if we adopt common positions to finding solutions to our problems.

8. INVITES attention of the rest of Nigeria that the North knows its interests and place and will defend them in the context of Nigeria. Our people are willing and eager to put our union as a nation on the table and discuss with other Nigerians the relative values of ALL options and negotiate them with responsibility and respect.

9. CAUTIONS the Presidency and members of the National Assembly and Governors to resist the temptation to abuse the political process in pursuit of their personal ambitions.

10. COMMITS to sustaining the strong interests behind this Summit through other activities and actions which will strengthen Northern unity and prepare it to extract the maximum benefits from the 2019 elections.

The Summit welcomes the release of the Dapchi girls, and urges the government to intensify efforts to secure the release of all other abducted Nigerians. It calls on the government to ensure that no abductions occur again, and all communities are sufficiently protected and young Nigerians are free to acquire education without fear.

Kaduna
    24th March, 2018

Signed
 1.    Professor Ango Abdullahi , CON
        Chairman ACF Political Committee
        Convener, Northern Elders Forum

 2.    Dr. Yima Sen
       Northern Elders Forum (NEF)

 3.    Amb. Ibrahim Mai Sule
       Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF)

 4.    Engr. Bello Suleiman
       CODE Group   

 5.    Mataimaki Tom Maiyashi
        Arewa Research Development Project (ARDP)

 6.    Zannah Hassan Boguma
       Borno Elders Forum

7.    Nafiu Baba-Ahmed
      Supreme Council for Shariah in Nigeria

8.    Dr. Ibrahim Yakubu Lame
       Northern Union

 9.    Yerima Shettima
        Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF)

10.    Alh. Mohammed Bello Kirfi, CON
         North East Forum for Unity and Development

 11.    Pastor Aminchi Habu
          United Christian Leaders Eagle Eye Forum (UCLEEF)

 12.    Balarabe Rufai
          Coalition of Northern Groups

 13.    Isa Tijjani
          Labour Veterans Association
 
 14.    Rev. Bitrus Dangiwa
          CAN Northern Chapter

 15.    Umar Ahmed Zaria
          Jama’atu Nasiril Islam (JNI)

 16.    Alh. Buba Adamah
          Arewa People Unity Association

 17.    Bilkisu Oniyang
          Arewa Initiative For Good Governance

 18.      Abdul-Azeez Suleiman
            Northern Emancipation Network