Crossing lines.

If the leader limps, all others start limping too. Kenyan proverb.

People cross lines when they engage in questionable behaviour, and have others who judge them and evaluate what is acceptable conduct, and what is not. The trick is to establish where lines start and end, as well as credibility of those who judge if lines have been crossed and what, if any, should be the penalty for the action. In the last few days, developments in the ruling All Progressives Congress(APC) with uncrowned party leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and party National Chairman, Chief John  Oyegun at the center suggest that many lines have been crossed. It is obvious that these are not inadvertent or casual transgressions that can be ignored or remedied by un-crossing lines. These are deep raptures in critical relations that hint at a long, festering malaise in a party that had lived pretty much on the disposition of a few powerful centers of power and influence that included the awesome profile of the Asiwaju. By any stretch of imagination, this major dip in the fortunes of the APC will not evaporate without taking major casualties. The size of the damage will be contingent on the perceptions and responses of dominant interests in the party.

 It will be uncharitable to assume that Asiwaju Tinubu did not contemplate the weight and the consequences of his public assaults on the party national chairman over the Ondo primaries. Indeed it is certain that his choice of location, style, weaponry and tactics were to raise the stakes so high that only the maximum impact will be the outcome, which is the humiliation and instant end to the elderly Oyegun's political career. If the gambit works, Oyegun's tenuous leadership role in the party is all but over. If it fails to remove a chairman who he pronounced thoroughly unfit to hold that position, Asiwaju's future in the party will be doubtful, and his status, if he remains, severely diminished. There is a third option, of course. This is the possibility that other powerful interests such as President Buhari and Vice Presidents Osinbajo and Atiku Abubakar and an assortment of others who have hovered around the party without defined roles, or even a few leaders in the legislature and government who will not be popping the champagne over this fiasco weigh in and mediate this damaging development. The problem here is that most of those with enough influence to mediate are likely to evaluate any roles purely on the basis of its utility to their own interests in the context of their relationships with Asiwaju and Oyegun. If reports in some media are to be believed, Atiku appears to have pitched his tent with Tinubu. Many interests in this fight will revisit drawing boards and settled perceptions over alliances, ambitions, friends and enemies. In this fight there are no neutrals.

There will be a few who will rue the circumstances of a ruling party that has been unable to grow beyond electoral victory and become a functional and critical institutional asset for good governance. Its traducers will even say it appeared to have served its purpose as a vehicle for the election of the government, and was then abandoned as spoils for a handful of powerful and well-connected people with continuing interests in building and expanding political fortresses. On many occassions, its nose was bloodied in vicious battles and unwholesome manouvers for positions. Every time it lost the power to influence the outcomes of battles for positions or basic policy, its stature and clout shrank. It has had no Board of Trustees or its equivalent, a vital requirement for a new party of old interests and ambitions blessed with men and women with capacities to provide guidance and mediate conflicts. Its key organs operate  either with the efficiency of the our DISCOS, or have quarrelled away their powers as they responded to conflicting stimuli of powerful party members.

The Ondo primaries controversy is symptomatic of deep-seated flaws that have been a feature of the party. Over-bearing influence of "chieftains" have frustrated the growth of party autonomy and operational efficiency. In many previous elections since 2015,the allegations of subversion of democratic values and practices, financial inducements, tampering with basic processes and requirements that give credibility and integrity of intra-party democracy which Tinubu now levels directly against Oyegun have been made by many, including other "chieftains" who lost out in the scramble. How does one make sense of a reported primaries appeals committee  made up of hand-picked persons from one chieftain with little links to the party; or a marathon meeting of the National Working Committee(NWC)of the party whose decisions are now in dispute after being tricked to pray while Chief Oyegun quietly walks away to subvert popular will? If these questions suggest  gross ignorance or an over-indulgence to gossip, there are other questions. How much of his frustrations with the Ondo saga did Asiwaju share with President Buhari before he went public with them? Why is the world hearing of grave allegations of abuse of many hallowed boundaries in management of the party in this instance from Asiwaju, and not from some members of the NWC who themselves are not shining examples of team players?

Millions and millions of Nigerians joined the APC as members because they believed it could provide a credible alternative to the outrage which the PDP had become. Millions more shared their faith and voted APC candidates into power at all levels. The party is therefore pre-eminently the party of the Nigerian with no billions of Naira or extensive stores of political assets. These simple folk wanted leaders who will work for them, and a party that will protect the investments they have made with their votes. They watched as powerful party leaders fought each other over positions and ambitions. Much energy was dissipated in fights, mostly using proxies, between leaders of the same party in control of the executive and the legislature. President Buhari's style of creating distance between him and some of these damaging skirmishes merely encouraged fights to last longer or become more vicious as combatants made their own rules. Turfs changed hands and new alliances emerged on the basis of perceptions over where real power and influence resided. Quarrels were left to fester because the party was reluctant to tread on toes. Hardly anyone paid attention to the need to constantly manage the party to withstand opposition as governance becomes more challenging in a period of economic recession; to manage ambitious members who have eyes on 2019 and 2023;to limit damage arising from real possibility that the party could bleed badly as many of its members leave to join the much-touted emerging third option.

It cannot escape Tinubu's calculations that his diatribe against Oyegun has now placed him firmly in the position that will work against the success of the party in the Ondo gubernatorial elections. The timing of his assault is very likely to influence the  Edo State elections as well. If that is indeed his goal, it is time to advise him to re-assess his position in the party. Asiwaju's place in the history of the struggle against the PDP is unrivaled, but he may have just about reached the end of his journey in this vessel. Chief Oyegun may also have been mortally wounded by Tinubu, no matter the veracity of the allegations against him. These two upstanding Nigerians who were in the frontline of the battle to defeat PDP cannot now continue to live in the same party. Chief Oyegun has made history by being the first chairman to lead his political party to victory against an incumbent government. The record of the party under his stewardship since election will indicate that it is inconsistent with this achievement. His stature under an increasingly-lowered bar will be a disservice to his achievement, and a liability to a party which needs renewal and revalidation to deal with current and emerging challenges. Too many lines have been, and are being crossed in a party bearing the hopes of millions. President Buhari needs to assert himself and salvage the party that brought him to power, so that it can operate as an electoral asset for a party that needs to control power beyond 2019.He has some very difficult decisions to make, but then this is what Nigerians elected him for.

What did I miss?

Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable. J.K Galbraith.

You may have noticed that I have not written for the last three Fridays. I have been away performing the Hajj, by the Grace of Allah and the generous facilitation of the Program of Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques for the Hajj, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Alsaud. This was not a break. It was a taxing ritual, its demands being surpassed only by the profound gratitude that one was by Allah to perform the Hajj. Hajj is an intensely solitary set of rituals during which one submitted to Allah the same way Muslims did for over 1,400 years, humbled by His Majesty and emboldened by His promise to forgive sins and grant prayers. It was also an awe-inspiring group activity, as millions of Muslims together performed every stage of the pilgrimage as if they are one person. Pilgrims from Nigeria performed rites and rituals with Muslims from Turkmenistan, Ghana, Kosovo, Comoros, Togo, Pakistan, South Sudan and Fiji. We shared meals with Muslims from Uzbekistan, Uganda, Tajikistan, South Africa, Nepal, Kenya, Fiji and Maldives. We travelled with Muslims from Myanmar, Botswana, Sri Lanka, Albania, Indonesia, Mali, Turkey and Somalia. In many fora and on the streets, Muslims from the USA, Philippines, Germany, Ethiopia, France, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Niger discussed the global state of Islam the faith, and Muslims the community in a world which increasingly sees both with some level of discomfort.

It was difficult to find time for anything else other than acts of worship, but you could not keep politics out of a Nigerian. Credible sources for information and developments were rare, and the distinguished group from Nigeria which I was privileged to be part of included university administrators and professors, clerics, journalists and public servants who were not inclined towards idle gossip. Much resting time was taken up by that human bundle of humor and sprawling intellect, Dr Bala Muhammad, the Daily Trust Saturday Back Page permanent resident who, on many occasions, reminded our hosts that we may not do better in organization of major events as Nigerians, but no one beats us at complaining when we smelt the slightest trace of tardiness or conducts unbecoming. His entire persona reminded other guests that our abilities to get the world to notice us as Nigerians are still sharp, in spite of what it hears about Boko Haram, corruption, economic recession and Religious politics. We found a world eager to hear about Nigeria, and if there were some who thought we were on a deserving decline, they kept it pretty much away from us. The truth, however, is that the Muslim world is very worried about Boko Haram and a restive Shi'a following in a country with one of the largest   Muslim populations in the world. There was a little less noise because the Iranian government said its citizens will not perform the Hajj this year.

We left on a high, with information that Mohammed Haruna, the journalism icon, was nominated as a National Commissioner of INEC among other credible Nigerians. He is eminently qualified to boost the integrity and credibility requirements of the Commission, and the nominations as a whole moved somewhat towards plugging the gaping holes in vacancies that were threatening the ability of the Commission to function in a manner that will sustain the gains of the 2015 elections. Then we began to hear near-comical stories of claims that government had pinched the intellectual property of one or two young Nigerians in the form of the name of the value-changing campaign, #ChangeBeginsWithMe. It sounded the same way it would if a parent snatches food from the mouth of its child and gobbles it down. A bigger outrage overtook this rather messy opening to a campaign to recapture service, sacrifice and excellence, when it was revealed that President Buhari's speech at the launching of this campaign had plagiarized an Obama speech. You got the distinct impression that this campaign was jinxed, but we were in Holy locale, so superstition had little traction.

In between, cynics, sworn skeptics, the opposition and an assortment of elements fast finding comfort in throwing muck at the administration questioned the basic assumptions of a campaign strategy which asks citizens that voted for change to change if they wanted change. Wasn't 2015 the triumph of the spirit for change, and doesn't this put the burden to affect this change on elected leaders? Just when it appeared that the problem was traceable to a muffled message, complaints over muddled, confused, conflicting and confounding macroeconomic policies from notable and knowledgeable persons with mixed records of goodwill towards the administration tilted the scales in favour of the perception that the administration was choosing a campaign with a disputed title over serious reviews of its capacities and strategies. Even the rump of the PDP and a few professional and permanently aggrieved persons asked why the administration appeared content to blame a past for all the nation's woes when its prime task was to pull the nation through its current challenges.

 A major Retreat on the economy did not end with bold, imaginative and informed conclusions and decisions that would begin to address the elements necessary to limit the damage of an economy in a recession. A major conflict involving Hausa peasants and armed vigilante on the one hand, and Fulani of mixed credentials in and around a Zamfara forest was reminding the nation that banditry and violence have no ethnic identity. The Zamfara state Governor flew back into the country at the height of the conflict, and promptly joined the President's entourage for the UN General Assembly(UNGA). The President himself left for the UNGA, knowing that he will meet with leaders from nations with deep interests in Nigeria. They will ask polite but searching questions about the economy, the Chibok girls, Boko Haram and the massive humanitarian disaster which it has spawned. Some of the leaders  the President will meet will raise issues regarding the management of IDPs, rumored corruption and weak coordination of efforts and utilization of assets. The President is likely to meet some resistance to pleas for more help unless there is evidence of serious improvement in levels of competence and transparency in the management of this disaster.  PDP is still involved in the search for a painful suicide. Dame Jonathan is crying to the heavens that EFCC is trying to snatch her $30m stash for medical treatment. Leaders of the national legislature are sending out feelers to test the waters and find out where the sharks are. Governors are sinking deeper into depression as bills mount and citizens ask why they voted them into power. Rumours of massive movements out of the two major parties towards a third alternative are rife. In the US, the battle appears set to be close between a discredited and a destructive candidate. Syria bleeds more as world powers attempt to gain footholds among ruins and misery of civilian populations.

Three weeks away at a distance could magnify the state of things when you are back. Still, the luxury of distance and the benefits of a relatively fresh assessment give you a fairly good idea of the state of the nation. On the whole, there is good reason to believe that Nigerian pilgrims' intense prayers during this Hajj were a good investment of time and effort. We prayed at points where our pilgrims like Hajiya Bilkisu Yusuf and Professor Al-Miskin and many others died last year, even though there was nothing to remind you of that tragedy this year. We prayed for relief from the hardship being experienced by all Nigerians. We prayed for greater courage and wisdom for our leaders as they grapple with a crisis designed by our greed and currently executed by our failure to rally the nation to extract opportunities from adversity. Those of us with sympathy for the administration prayed to God, so that it will never be said,(to paraphrase Churchill): never in the history of our nation has so much expectation of many been so wasted by so few.