Buhari and Saraki

I would give the proverbial arm to know what President Buhari and Senate President Bukola Saraki said to each other last week Thursday. Still, the photo smiles of a tired-looking President, VP, Saraki and a posse of governors (who presumably, midwifed a meeting of the two people with potentially the greatest impact on the 2019 elections) was a collector’s item. It has been in the air that Saraki was leading an exodus of powerful and severely aggrieved APC politicians, and  President Buhari was treating the threat in his characteristic manner: either it will all go away, or it will be someone else’s responsibility to deal with. The comfort is in knowing that this week, it will most likely all spill out. It is that season of high drama, risky gambles and earth-shaking developments that will lay out the boundaries of the contests for elective offices next year.

Four years ago this month, Saraki’s group absconded with a huge chunk of the APC’s assets, and were settling in nicely into the new coalition that was the APC, leaving a fatal gap in the PDP. The tables are now turning. The political renegades say they had found no home in the APC and appear, in all likelihood, to be headed back to PDP. They also appear to have picked a substantial number of other aggrieved APC politicians along the way. President Buhari’s fixers with some political antennae must have been alarmed enough to shut out the let-them-go chorus that had been dominant in the air until now. Arrogant complacency over Saraki's wrecking crew's threat to the APC must have worried a few around a President not used to panicking over opposition. It now appears that President Buhari was convinced that he had to persuade Saraki to call off the rebellious hoard  that had all but factionalized the party.

Now, let your imagination roam around what President Buhari could  have said to a man he had prosecuted for three years until the Supreme Court said he was innocent, and that his trial had been engineered by other interests outside the powers of the Court of Conduct Tribunal. In general terms, Buhari’s propagandists have created a role for Saraki as the scoundrel-in-chief in the anti-corruption war. In the last three months, Buhari’s police had strongly hinted that Saraki was the leader of an armed robbery gang in his home state. Many of Saraki’s fellow-travelers also bear deep scars from altercations with law and order agencies and governors who appeared to enjoy free hands to make enemies for the president. The party structure had shut out an entire segment of elected members of the APC, making it virtually impossible for them to contest fairly for re-election. Scores of Senators and dozens of members of the House of Representatives can only win back mandates if they contest on other party platforms. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara who is the highest ranking elected northern Christian in the ruling APC has been stripped of all influence and presence in his State by his governor. There are a number of governors in Saraki’s group who are unsure whether the APC can or will deliver them another mandate.

President Buhari obviously assumes that Saraki has awesome powers of forgiveness and the clout to lead a large group of very bitter politicians who are convinced they will get better deals elsewhere, back to the APC. In fairness, it must also be assumed that the President had offered Saraki & Co some incentives to stay, but what could they be? He cannot dismantle the elaborate party structures put in place by governors to keep Saraki’s people out. He cannot persuade governors to make up with injured adversaries, some of whom suffer precisely because they covet the governor’s places. He cannot call off the EFCC from pursuing suspects without doing serious damage to his fragile claim to fighting corruption. He will not stand down for another person, nor can he convincingly promise to be a different person or president. He has little time left to make major changes in his government to affect improvements in the quality of governance.

President Buhari could promise Saraki’s people to be altogether a different leader if they all stay put and get him re-elected, but will they believe him? Already in his 70s, he is pretty much settled in his ways, and these do not include pronounced traits for charting new courses, living outside the past or designing radically new options. If he has another four years, will he run a more effective and inclusive adminstration? Will he dismantle the tiny, rigid circle of relations to whom he appears to have consigned huge powers to run the country? Will he eschew the tendency to ignore vital political relationships; assume a firmer control over the decision-making process; and respect the rule of law more diligently in a four-year period when he could afford to be less accountable? Will his frail health hold enough to allow him to personally offer strong leadership in a nation desperate to be secured, healed, united and developed? Can he be trusted by people who see him basically a vindictive, narrow -minded leader who has deep disdain for the basic mechanics of politics?

If Senator Saraki walks with a swagger these days, it will not be the result of the vindication of his innocence by the Supreme Court. True, that  verdict must have removed a huge psychological restraint on an ambitious politician, but the swagger will hide deep concerns that his group’s  destination is by no means a distinctly better option than staying, as we speak. They are working to put together a coalition around their old party, the PDP, but that will only give it a thin coat of paint which will not cover its basic character. His camp, which is still dangerously exposed to subversion, has many doubts over their ability to sell the PDP as a better choice  than Buhari’s APC, even potentially poorer without them. It will be interesting to see how much Saraki’s people can make PDP change its character, and how much difference they can make to its chances to defeat the APC. In 2015, they reinforced the APC’s key selling point, which was Buhari. If they leave now, Buhari will be the only asset available to the APC, as well as  its major liability. Can Buhari defeat a poorly-rebranded coalition using only his bruised persona and a ragged scorecard?

Saraki and his fellow travelers have two options. They can continue  to perch  on the margins of the APC with their record of  disloyalty to Buhari and trust that the future will be kind to them. Or they can leave and do all they can to defeat Buhari, because life for them under Buhari’s second term will be thoroughly unbearable.

Text of Welcome and Keynote Address

By Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, OON.

Extraordinary Summit of Leaders and Elders of Nigeria.

Wesdesday,18th July,2018,Abuja.

Protocols,

 I am humbled and honoured by this opportunity to deliver the Welcome and Keynote address at this historic Summit of Leaders and Elders of Nigeria. In these challenging days when the very foundations of our nation are often questioned by all and sundry, it is my hope that Nigerians are sitting up and taking note of this event. They will see, without any ambiguity, an unfamiliar union of Nigerians brought together by the realization that no one section of our country can achieve any meaningful goal of development or security alone. Nigerians will see in this setting a strategic closing of ranks around certain fundamentals, a deliberate step towards leaning on each other to solve particular and general problems.

This Summit is evidence that the nation is successfully revisiting one of its authentic and most valuable assets, which is its stock of elders and leaders. As Africans, we know that our communities are rooted in the wisdom and experiences of elders. Our history is a patchwork of follies of ignoring this asset, as well as the values of turning to it in the most trying times of need. There is no better time than now to pool together our entire stock of elders and experiences of leaders to put at the disposal of those whom destiny and our mandates have made our leaders today. No one needs worry about the taunting of the ill-informed and the mischievous who question the value and credibility of elders and leaders such as those assembled here today. It is enough that we know what to do when our communities and our nation are challenged for direction, for vision, for courage or caution. This Summit is as representative of Nigeria as the best-designed institutions of state, and the nation will do well to pay due attention to because it represents the beginning of a momentum that with a clear vision and an intrinsic value.

This Summit represents a bridge across all Nigerian communities. It speaks of a vast foundation of commonness of our challenges as a people, as well as the futility of damaging quarrels over matters we can best solve together. It is inspired by a genuine desire to lend support to leadership at all levels, whether that leadership asks for that support, or is uncomfortable with it. This Summit is the elder who insists that the goat  will not give birth while tethered. It is not the actualization of an idle wish, but the culmination of very demanding discussions and engagements  that successfully lowered barricades and barriers we have erected our the past decades around our communities. In this hall, there is a string resolve to work together so that every Nigerian can live in the realities of our ideals, which is to live in peace with dignity and to pursue progress unhindered by region, religion or ethnicity.

The decision to create a common national platform from all the regional and socio-cultural groups is a major breakthrough in the search for  solutions that have made every Nigerian a living grievance. I commend the tenacity of our elders who saw real possibilities in collaboration, leaders who felt incomplete because they are unable to lead in a situation where every section is pulling in its own direction, and elders who are experienced in managing complex situations. In this hall we can commit to protecting the rights of Fulani herders who are only interested in living in peace and herding their only source of livelihood. We can speak for the farmer who is threatened by violence from his land and livelihood. We can speak for communities that need each other to survive and develop; communities that long to be relocated away from IDP camps; communities that live in fear from the next attack and see enemies in every stranger; and communities that are losing faith in a nation that has room for everyone.

Distinguished elders and leaders, my prayer is that the fire you lit will never be extinguished. I hope younger Nigerians and our leaders will listen to the voices of this Summit. They will experience a world that can exist without hate, a nation that can deliver on the promise to be just to all, to protect the weak and not penalise the strong.

I have listed a number of personal observations I hope will be useful to the Summit as it examines the state of security in which we live as Nigerians:

a) The nation is facing unprecedented spate of violence from familiar sources as well many new fronts, with vast tracts of the nation completely at the mercy of marauding killers, inter- communal conflicts, violent crimes, kidnapping and violent  urban gangs;

b)The nation’s entire security and law and order assets appear incapable of arresting the drift towards pervasive and widespread conflicts and violent crimes which make every citizen a potential victim;

c)Fear and uncertainty are fuelling narratives that create convenient enemies, and many communities are in danger of coming to terms with permanent state of insecurity;

d) The failure of the government to arrest and successfully prosecute killers is creating the impression of a weak state in which killers and criminals operate almost at will;

e) Entire communities have been uprooted and placed at the mercy of an unprepared state and the elements. Livelihood will be disrupted for many years to come;

f) Hate, suspicion and fear are driving dangerous barriers in community relations in many parts of the country, and governments themselves have been responsible for their spread;

g)Federal and state governments have failed to put forward policies, initiatives or progammes that will improve citizen and community security, improve community relations or mediate conflicts;

h)Security, law and order agencies have not been held accountable for the disastrous collapse of the nation’s security infrastructure;

i) The nation is potentially exposed to more violence as the police fails in its basic responsibilities, the military is stretched beyond its capacities and the challenges of the forthcoming elections will divert resources and attention from basic security responsibilities;

In addition,I would offer these suggestions:

i)                    President Muhammadu Buhari needs to show firmer and more decisive leadership in dealing with alarming scale of killings and other violent claims. It is the responsibility of leadership to secure the  citizen, no matter what the sources or nature of threats to his life and property are.

ii)                  All leaders and citizens have a vital role in improving levels of security. The President’s claims that certain interests and persons are involved in fueling the killings for political reasons must be taken seriously. These persons and interests must be exposed and brought to book. They must not remain as mere excuse for failure to secure citizens and the nation. Heads of security, law and order institutions must be held accountable for failures and lapses. The President should critically assess the levels of competence and commitment of agencies responsible for securing Nigerians and take necessary steps to ensure that only the best and most committed from them are entrusted with responsibility.

iii)                 The nation’s basic security infrastructure must be completely rebuilt on a new philosophy, structure and commitment to security as the prime function of the state.

iv)                The nation should come to terms with the realities of the limitations of the current structure of our union, particularly in the area of security and welfare of citizens. There are compelling grounds for restructuring our federal system in a manner that benefits all sections and interest in the nation. In this respect, the recent initiative of the Senate to initiate a review of the Constitution towards creating State Police should be supported as a matter of the highest national priority. The amendments on devolution of powers should also be revisited by the National and State Assemblies. Nigerians demand that their leaders must operate with requisite sensitivity to the challenges of our existence,and must put aside parochial and divisive sentiments in dealing with national issues.

v)                  Government should  take immediate and decisive steps to do the following:

a)           Address the alarming spread of illegal weapons in the hands of citizens, criminals and communities;

b)          Adopt measures that will hasten the ranching of cattle, and encourage communities to create harmonious working and living relationships with other communities;

c)           Address hate speach it all its ramifications; Design strategies that will encourage improved understanding and unity among all communities in Nigeria;

d)          Address widespead poverty and youth unemployment;

e)           Take decisive steps to demonstrate respect for the rule of law, the sanctity of life and rights of citizens to justice;

f)            Improve popular perception on the fight against corruption by removing any hint of partisanship or bias in the manner cases are investigated and prosecuted;

g)          Assure Nigerians that the 2019 elections will be free and fair, and conducted in an atmosphere devoid of violence.

I thank this Summit for this opportunity to sgare with you my personal views on the search for peace and security in our nation.

May God bless your efforts and our nation.