Why Lekki is important

 “When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other”. Eric Hoffer, 1902-83.

At about 7 pm on the 20^th of October,2020, an incident occurred at the Lekki Tollgate area  in Lagos State which more or less broke the back of the protests against police brutality which had gripped the nation’s attention  for many preceding  days. There is little outside the most hardened conspiracy theories that challenges the dominant narrative that people in military uniforms opened fire on the protesters. Beyond this epochal event, everything else is either under intense scrutiny or has now become part  of  those immovable elements of a story that will be jealously guarded by the many sides in  a dispute over accountability, justice and respect for the rule of law. Lagos State government had imposed a curfew after it had become apparent that violence had usurped the peace of the protests. Street lights and CCTV cameras were reported to have been taken down before or during the  incident. Protesters sat down waving flags and singing even as trucks of military personnel approached and surrounded them, then opened fire on them. Some said policemen also came at midnight to shoot at more protesters. That night marked another descent into new lows in unfettered violence and criminality the like of which the nation may have never seen.

A Judicial Panel of Inquiry set up  to establish what happened at Lekki among other weighty issues has been inundated by incredible pressures, conflicting  flip flops and melodrama which combine to make the task of establishing facts nearly impossible. The central question was the circumstances that led to the presence of the military at the location of the #EndSARS protesters, which is no longer in dispute. Did the military invite itself or it was asked to intervene by Governor of Lagos State at a time when a curfew had been imposed and violence had taken over many parts of the State? Did the military use live  or blank bullets against the protesters? Were there casualties among the protesters? If there were, who and where are they? Did policemen come to the area at midnight to shoot at the protesters as well? Were there links between the Lekki incident and the incidents of massive violence, destruction of public and private property, killings, including killing of policemen, looting and other criminal acts in Lagos and other parts of the country? Were there shadowy political interests and motives behind an uprising that had an honourable genesis and a most tragic exodus? How is the pervasive influence of social media a factor in the protests themselves and the manipulation of opinion which may have fueled the riots and other mayhem which accompanied the protests?   What lessons should the country learn from Lekki and the journey of the protests, at least in Lagos?

Just when the Tribunal was grappling with the take-off of  an intensely politicized and noisy assignment, CNN happened to its mandate. The global news network released what it promoted as major findings regarding the heavily disputed series of events which  occurred at Lekki. Everyone sat up. After all, it was CNN, and Nigerians  would switch lights on in day time if CNN says  it is midnight. CNN confirmed what was largely known and on record: military personnel went to Lekki and shot at protesters in an attempt, presumably, to disperse them. It said there were deaths. It showed people who claimed there were deaths, and casings of bullets with links to the Nigerian military. It used footage  from protesters and enhanced it with technology to show shootings. In spite of telling limitations in a report from an outfit with the reputation of CNN, it got senior government circles in Nigeria all worked up. Perhaps it was the apparent concern that a  world we are eager to please will frown at the conclusion that Nigerian soldiers shot and killed flag-waving, harmless protesters, even when President Buhari was warning that further protests of that nature will not be tolerated. It could also be a reaction against the possibility that the  report could worsen perception of a government that was, in so many ways, on trial before the tribunal and the public without having its own side heard.

The imperative of probing Lekki is much bigger than the issue of  whether CNN was biased and unprofessional. This imperative is at the heart of the obligation to account to a nation that had just gone through horrendous trauma, ironically, over  failure of elements of its policing institution to respect the duty to account to laws and citizens. In its favour, the federal government can claim credit for the setting up of the tribunal before CNN’s provocation. Now this tribunal must be encouraged to help answer some important questions. First, who mobilized military personnel to Lekki? Did the Governor of Lagos State  request  troops to go to Lekki? If he did request for soldiers to support civil authorities to preserve peace, law and order which in certain specific circumstances  the law allows, who  approved his request since he has no powers to mobilize members of the military? Under any circumstances, the issue regarding the mobilization of the military must be  made public. This administration’s record on the use of the military has been tainted by the killing of hundreds of Shia supporters in 2016 by the military. Some  strategic  allies in the fight against Boko Haram have also expressed much concern over the conduct of our military, and valuable support has been withheld because of the failure to rein-in some of the excesses observed. Second, facts related to use of lethal force, deaths and injuries must be established. Those who allege that people have died at Lekki must prove this with evidence. Three, the allegation that police personnel also went to Lekki and shot at protesters must be conclusively probed. Police was at the heart of the protests, and, as we speak, the nation is witnessing  a surge in crimes and leadership of the police literally begging police personnel to resume duties in the nation’s frontline agency for providing public safety.

The government’s hand must be strengthened by its ability to be open and accountable, because it also has an obligation to take some tough decisions on matters that are directly related to the protests and  its aftermath. The most challenging obligation will be the prosecution of people who broke laws during the protests and in related activities or during those free-for-alls when some people thought illegality had been suspended by a state that had its back against the wall. The huge distance between lawful assembly and the right to peaceful protest which must be upheld, and outrightly-illegal and criminal conduct must be probed and those with evidence against them must be held to account. It will be tragic if state agents who broke laws are punished as the #EndSARS protests demanded, and citizens who commit murder, theft, destruction and other crimes are allowed to go unpunished. If there are legitimate concerns regarding the manipulation of social media for subversive and criminal purposes, government needs to do more than imply that they exist. It needs to prove the harm it does, and cultivate support to limit the damage it does.

Lekki represents more than an incident. It is a powerful demand for openness and accountability, without which the nation will continue to make unnecessary and grave concessions. It is also an opportunity to redress an untidy balance between a state that is open and accountable, and citizens who live with the privileges and consequences of the rule of law.

Gamblers and journeymen

 “Politics are  almost as exciting as war, and quite as dangerous. In war you can only be killed once, but in politics, many times.” Winston Churchill,1874-1965

If it is not such a sad reminder of the depth of mediocrity and the contempt with which our political leaders treat our democratic process, it would have been amusing, watching leaders of the All Progressives Party(APC)  get all excited at the defection of Governor Umahi  of Ebonyi State from the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) to their party. As tradition allows, the man who received majority of votes on a political party platform walked away with the peoples‘ mandate and joined the side his supporters helped him defeat. It is not illegal, but if politics has moral standards, this practice will be  the equivalent of the man who sells his father’s house and then moves in with the buyer as a squatter. To be fair to Governor Umahi, he has joined a long, distinguished line of politicians who see politics in purely personal terms, and party members and voters as disposable irritations. There are very few politicians in Nigeria today whose entire journey has been made in only one political vehicle.

Governor Umahi says he defected to the APC to protest  against the injustice of his party, the PDP whose presidential ticket has never been zoned to the South-East zone. This zone, he protests, has supported the PDP since 1999, but had never had its presidential ticket zoned to it. He is not moving to the APC for any reason other than to protest this injustice. His former party disagrees. It says he has a strong personal reason for defecting to a party which can barely feel the ground in his zone: he has his eyes on a possible APC  presidential ticket. His new party is not waiting to count how many people from his state he will deliver for baptismal in a region bursting with grievances but stubborn in terms of looking at new options. It is not showing signs that his arrival has raised more questions on its claims that it is not a party of a northern leadership on its way out, and a handful of politicians from the south west who are already showing signs of a bruising battle over a ticket no one is sure will be secured by anyone in the region.

Governor Umahi is either exclusively privy to a secret or an optimist with no equal. He says he knows that PDP will not zone its presidential platform to the south east. It is possible he also  knows that APC will surprise the long-suffering people of the south east  by offering them its  ticket. If PDP does choose a candidate from the south east, Umahi will not sip the champagne, and few people will remember his sacrifice because he will be in a party that will have its own problems in the zone and with Nigerians. If Umahi’s new party does not zone the ticket to the south-east, few people will remember his name, not to talk of the possibility that he could win a Senate seat. If both parties poison his zone with wealth of two tickets, he will be  in the midst of the scramble with a valid case that he offered to be the sacrificial lamb. That may not count for much in a region that is replete with quality and tested politicians who have remained slightly more loyal to their parties.

Umahi’s defection hints at the enduring tradition in Nigerian politics that values such as party loyalty and respect for rules are only useful if they serve an individual’s interests. The party he has just left has raised the standards of disregarding rules to the status of the holy grail, and much of the stress beginning to show in many camps is evidence of popular knowledge that nothing is sacrosanct. No politician in the PDP will hang his ambition on the certainty that the rotation principle in the party will be respected in 2023.Before 2015, it had suffered such injury from desperate politicians that the party’s bleeding from fights  around it contributed substantially to its defeat. In Port Harcourt in 2018, 12 northerners lined up to be selected as flag bearer. Southern PDP politicians salivated at the prospect that it will be  their turn 2022. They began to lose sleep when they began to hear rumours that the zoning principle was being re-interpreted to mean that someone from a region must win and exercise power before the other region smells an opportunity to field a candidate. The ghost of President Jonathan’s desperate effort to disown the principle was also being invoked to suggest that the principle of rotation had died from anemia caused by bad faith and desperation of politicians.

Threats of dire consequences that will follow the refusal of both parties to cede tickets to candidates from any of the three zones in the south do not appear to have impressed some powerful northern politicians or voters. A few of APC’s bigwigs have suggested that it will serve the interest of justice to have a candidate of the party from the south. These voices are being drowned by a torrent of indignation at the mere suggestion that the party will dare field a candidate from the north. There is a particularly strong sense of entitlement to the ticket from the south west, but the region is being seriously damaged by a civil war. There are also strong  cases being made by other southern zones that it makes better politics to plant the party in lands that will nourish it with appreciation and certainty that it will have life after President Buhari ceases to have any political relevance in the country.

If you have read this far, you may have noticed a number of key players missing. One in the northern voter whose choices irrespective of decisions of politicians will have a major influence on which candidate wins, irrespective of his identity. The Buhari administration would leave only one lasting legacy in the country, but particularly north: that leadership is vital, and  voters must be weary of voting into power people like him who ride on false mystique and see power as an end in itself. Second is the absence of options to the PDP/APC stranglehold  on the nation’s lifeline which will make a case for competent leadership that will run the country in a manner that addresses poverty, insecurity and distrust. The third is the silence on sensitive matters such as restructuring the country before new leaders emerge and reinforce the old order. Finally, the worry that without a decisive shift from the past, the two dominant parties may run the country aground in their attempts to ride it before the next elections.

 

Tough days ahead

 “ If the villagers are happy, look for the village head.” African proverb.

These are very challenging times for our nation. We have been living with challenging times for a long time, but these are particularly tough. These are days that make you look around and ask whether this is one hurdle we may not scale. The ‘we’ here refers to those who still habour genuine preference for the survival of Nigeria as one country, with all its current constituent parts. My feeling is that these are in the majority, but their numbers are diminishing under the onslaught of politicians and fringe elements who have found a niche in irredentist language for every ill or shortfall they see with the nation. The challenge of surviving breakup is only one threat facing the nation. Worse threats are surviving as one  insecure, poor and  deeply-divided nation. Even the most ardent supporter of one nation will place a caveat: the nation must have peace and security, and assure all citizens of justice and economic progress. As things stand, Nigerians face very difficult prospects. The country must be thoroughly re-engineered if it is to overcome its threats as one country, yet the prospects for this are very dim. In my view, there are fundamental pre-requisites that are needed to give the country some hope for continuing to survive, but  survive as a country worth  fighting to preserve.

1.       Addressing the fundamentals of our union

Nigerians designed the current structures under which we live, and Nigerians now demand that these structures be revisited and addressed. Our federal system insults the concept and practice of federalism. It causes massive instability to our political system by locating too much power and resources around a center that has proved distant, wasteful and incompetent. It provides the perfect cover for incompetence and corruption, while it feeds alienation and frustration among Nigerians looking for accountable and responsive leadership.

It is very unlikely that the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari will accept the historic challenge to initiate the processes for restructuring the country. Nor should the nation expect the legislators who form a major part of the beneficiaries of the damaging influence of Abuja in our lives to undertake anything beyond superficial tinkering  with the constitution. The real threat to the prospects of restructuring the nation, however lie in the absence of elite consensus and the cultivation of an informed public support for it.The current demand for restructuring is basically ill-fated for two reasons. It comes as an expression of demand and threats from Nigerian politicians who find their paths blocked by other politicians. Politicians who demand restructuring if the presidency slot will not be taken to their doorstep  miss the point that the nation needs to be restructured before the 2023 elections, or “their” son will be the biggest obstacle  to restructuring. Secondly, the cause for or restructuring is damaged by poor salesmanship. Nigerians need to understand its basics, its benefits and the manner it should be achieved. You cannot restructure the country to everyone’s satisfaction in one fell swoop. There are competing interests that will frustrate attempts to reform our basic structures. There are too many versions of what it means. Sadly, too many of the champions of restructuring the nation are people with very little respect, opportunists who hold on to it today because it is the only game in town. They are mostly tribal champions who feed fat from abusing other tribal champions for a little applause. Never in the history of causes has so much been wasted for lack of credible champions.

If the Nigerians  waste  precious time abusing each other over something no one has, but everyone needs, restructuring the nation will be an election item. No one vested with the awesome powers which the current arrangements bestow on leaders will lead the charge to whittle his powers. Nigerians need to find credible and respected champions to address the nation’s future. Nothing is more important and more urgent.

2.       Securing the nation

No one outside the Presidential Villa will argue against the reality that this country has never faced more sources and manifestations of insecurity. It is tempting to say that those who will succeed President Buhari will  fix the nation’s security. That will be, to be polite,  facile thinking. At  the rate Nigerians are becoming more exposed to insecurity, what type of leader will deal it, and how? The criminal and  small arms now have greater influence on how we live than the government. We have lost the war against a ten-year old insurgency by failing to defeat it.We are losing the war against other violent crimes such as banditry, kidnapping, cultism, armed robbery, rustling, piracy, and many other threats to lives and livelihood. Now we have a police that is half-way in and half-way out following the protests. Nigerians are virtually unprotected, and to wait under worsening circumstances for another two years for another president to fix our security will amount to passing a death sentence to our future as one nation. Who will fight to preserve or protect a nation under the influence of killers and rapists?

If there are people left in this country that the president listens to, they need to exercise that rare privilege and advise him to place security as the nation’s first priority. The nation needs to restructure in part because policing is such a vital issue that requires addressing. It is too important to leave this issue to the whims of the federal government, and Nigerians should be weary of do-it-yourself policing which some politicians tout as solutions. We need to re-invent a fighting military, policing institutions that are effective and accountable, and a leadership that will plug the entry of small arms into every hamlet and criminal dens. If we cannot make substantial inroads into improving national and citizen security, the future of this country will be even more seriously threatened.

3.       Fixing the economy, fighting poverty

It is unlikely that the federal and state governments will find the will or the means of improving the economy. This administration has never been an expert at breaking new grounds in managing the economy or fighting poverty. Between worn-out excuses about a past, the impact of COVID-19, and the absence of quality advise and management, the economy will worsen. We saw glimpses of  poverty and the perceptions of a leadership which does not seem to care during the riots and looting that followed the protests. Poverty levels will rise, as more and more policies which cushion poverty and basic economic activities are released on the public. There is little point in asking this president to improve his responses to the challenges of the economy. This may be one issue that will have to await new leaders, but it is also the most important reason why Nigerians must elect leaders who bear absolutely no resemblance with our current leaders. If the next leadership does not have a vision, the competence and a programme for re-inventing the nation’s economy and radically reducing poverty levels, the future of a nation where citizens are safe is extremely uncertain.

4.       Different leadership

 I wish it were possible to place this item first, but even the best leaders will be severely challenged by massive insecurity, dysfunctional systems, a crumbling economy and rampant poverty in a country with a young population. It is important to say, though,  that those who will succeed our current leaders must be as different a breed as we can produce. No one needs to remind us that we are where we are today basically because of the choices we made in those who should lead us. We still have that power, but this time we must use it better. No one should be elected because he is from a part of a country, because  of his ethnic group, his religion or his party. These factors have been used by politicians to hurt us and destroy the country. We need competent leadership that will work for all of us. We need people with the energy and the hunger to serve. We need Nigerian leaders who will fix Nigeria.

America’s naked dance in the market

 “When the roots of a tree begin to rot, they spread death to the  branches”. African proverb.

It is tempting to poke at the current state of the United States of America and derive justifiable or perverse pleasure at the distress of a nation that resembles a bully who is thoroughly humbled or dusted. This is not one of such tempting trashings. The developing situation around the democratic traditions and values of the US is too serious to be made fun of. It is a very serious challenge to the democratic system in all its variants and imperfections, a system we are bound  with in a fundamental manner. How the US deals with this current challenge to its foundations and credibility will impact a world it is substantially responsible for shaping. A weakened America scrambling to come to terms with the basics of democracy will threaten a world in which it has unparalleled influence, while a new world order without the dominant presence of the US will not easily step up. The world watching the gripping drama for the soul of America is not wasting its time. Friends and foes know that this is one of those moments in history that reminds humanity how frail its arrangements and  systems are, and how it must never rule out the possibilities of lurking threats or opportunities at every turn.

Like all human societies, America was built on stresses and tensions, and its history in particular is a study in man’s struggles to achieve progress by the manner these tensions and stresses are resolved by creating the foundations of new threats and opportunities. The nation’s modern foundations were laid by strands which spoke of one of the highest ideals of humanity. One was to live under the freedom from oppression and rights to freedom of worship. However, to take root in a strange land, it involved the virtual extermination of an indigenous population and expropriation of its land and negation of its culture, a basic negation of the edifying philosophy of the universality of the rights of the human being to live in dignity. The seeds of a capitalist system that released unprecedented energy to build a new economy were watered by the worst crime that mankind had committed: enslaving another race from another continent and putting them to work to build the foundations of a modern economy which had no place for them. America had to fight a civil war to resolve a basic contradiction over what type of capitalism it wanted. One side won and the nation moved on to other battles to wrest more of the dreams of founding fathers from an establishment that was notoriously resistant to major changes.

Modern America championed freedom, but fought vicious wars to compel other peoples to adopt its versions of freedom. It had a glorious history of fighting for its own independence, and an inglorious history of propping up imperialism, racism and neo-colonialism against others. It built  a powerful economy by tolerating extremes of wealth and poverty, the latter bearing the imprint of the black and other non-white races. It welcomed and provided opportunities for people from Europe to live the American dream while its poor citizens lived a nightmare of an existence in a nation that had little compassion for the weak or the poor. It espoused lofty ideals of equality under the law and justice for all, but lived with systemic racism and violence and crime which created many nations in one. It appeared to have moved away from its history rooted in racism, inequality and violence, but it never got to the point where these did not represent a hard core in its character that haunts it to this day.

The journey to the current threat to the US’s standing, not to speak of threats to its internal security and the damage to its vital democratic institutions have very deep roots in the DNA of the country. The tensions between a liberalizing America and the resistance against it  have always been the major issues behind most of the monumental changes in a nation that preferred to be seen as the model liberal democratic country and global champion of all the best human values. It is sufficient to draw a line on another, more recent turning point at the election of a black president and son of an African student, Barrack Obama. The America that had been custodian of old values with clear ideas about race and its place in the scheme of things was awakened by the cheering of another America which thought it could sight the ultimate promised land of the founding fathers. Eight years under a black president and the prospect of another presidency, this time under a liberal woman was enough to arouse its indignation and resistance. It did, defeating Hilary Clinton and installing a right-wing President Trump who said and did all the right things to give right-wing and a huge chunk of mainstream America some comfort that history is reversible in America.

Trump’s four years as president was a spectacular success at playing to a very powerful gallery. His successes at managing the economy propped up a cult of the strong man on a journey to restore America’s glory and offer no apologies. Trump went about the business of restoring his version of America amidst deafening cheers from a huge, hard core of supporters and shocking outrage from others who were deeply offended by his persona, his cultivation of the fringes and debasing of the hallowed office of President of the United States. Then a virus descended on a world and an America that had never been more divided. Trump had the misfortune of having to face an election and sustain a posture in the fight against a pandemic that was ravaging a country with a shocking array of statistics at the same time. He lost the war against the virus and against Joe Biden, as Americans turned out in record numbers to  have a say on his leadership and on their fears.

Trump’s legacy will take a long while to register fully. He has awoken a powerful sentiments that are unlikely to go back to sleep even after January 20th when Biden will be sworn-in. Long after him, right-wing politicians will feed these sentiments and keep America weaker and dangerously divided. His attempt to de-legitimize vital democratic processes and institutions will fail with some damage to their mystique of infallibility, but they will do serious damage to a US which has made itself the leading, global standard-setter in the integrity of electoral and democratic processes. His supporters will have powers to draw boundaries on politics, and liberal America will look over its shoulders for a long time to come. The divisions Trump deepened will frighten even the bravest bridge builders, and the world will look at the US with less awe. Trump’s nation will have a second chance to confront COVID-19 with more, better-informed seriousness, but it would have to pay a huge, undeserved price for his follies. In the meantime, the US can only hope that the damage Trump has the powers and the right to do to US interests and the world will be minimal. The world will keep going round, but the US will have to struggle to catch up with it.

#SecureNorth

 “There are two ways of meeting difficulties: you alter the difficulties, or you alter yourself meeting meeting them”. Phyllis Bottome

Her name was Aisha Mohammed. Remember that name, so that she does not become another statistic. She was 30, a graduate of computer science from Bayero University, Kano.Newly employed,she  was living with her husband and three children in  Barakallah, a suburb of Kaduna adjacent major   Nigeria Air Force  facilities. On Tuesday last week, when  it became obvious that armed people were intent on forcing their way into their house in the middle of the night, her husband left through a back door to alert the local vigilante and possibly air force personnel nearby. The kidnappers managed to break through the gates and succeeded in dragging her out of her home .Threatened by the response of the vigilante or air force personnel, her kidnappers shot her and abandoned her near an uncompleted building. When she was found, she was alive enough to say she had been shot. She died with her unborn baby in the hospital.

Remember her, and remember the unborn child that died with her. Remember the children and husband she left behind. Remember her, because she is one out of hundreds or thousands whose deaths are footnotes to the circumstances under which northerners in villages and cities live today. She should remind us of   thousands of women who cannot sleep in the night, or sleep at home, because kidnappers and bandits have encroached into grabbing distances  of towns and villages in the North. She should remind us  of men who are unable   protect their families, proud and brave men who  can hear gunshots and screams nearby or  at their doors, but  run or sit and pray  and wait for the inevitable. She reminds us of all the women who are abducted and go through unspeakable horrors in the hands of bandits, kidnappers and insurgents. She speaks of flowing tears and tears that cannot flow anymore. She speaks of our abject helplessness at the rising confidence of the criminal. Pray for her and the family she left behind. Pray for thousands more who could be her. Pray for those who are in hands of bandits and kidnappers waiting for huge amounts to be paid for their damaged freedom.

She was alive when young northerners marched with placards demanding that northerners should be made more secure. She might  have  followed the #EndSARS protests until they were stolen by criminals. She could  have followed social media frenzy around the protest, the geo-political dimensions they took and the  sorry state of their end. She might have watched President Buhari’s address to the nation days after  the protests, or watched images of stores  and warehouses being looted by citizens and criminals alike. Long before the #EndSARS protests, brave and angry youth in Katsina State had made brief appearances in anger at the permanence of the bandit and kidnappers and rapists in their lives. They were scattered away by the police or elders who promised to do something .Every northerner must have followed that address, watching out for clues that the young people who had marched briefly in the past and during the protests in the north  for more security for northern lives would have made enough  impression on the president  to warrant a mention.

Now that we have prayed for Allah’s mercies on her, should we  just wait to pray for other victims as well? Muslim clerics caution against protests and demonstrations by Muslims. What they do not explain sufficiently to an angry and hard-pressed citizenry is what Muslims who are aggrieved by an indifferent, incompetent, unjust and corrupt leadership should do. The overwhelming consensus here is that uprisings and other activities that could  threaten social order even under unjust or incompetent leaders are not allowed. Unjust rulers have expiry dates, but crises that could be set in motion by  uprisings and revolts  against them could cause more damage than even their injustice. Those who are persuaded by religious injunctions also know that God does not close all doors. He gave us the power to challenge injustice without causing more damage. We elect leaders. We can keep them on their toes while they wield power over us, or throw them out during elections. Even more significant, every bad leader reminds us that we have the power to elect better leaders.

It has become painfully obvious that the North may have to wait for a miracle or  the next elections to see serious improvements in its security and its economy. The miracle will be in the form of a president who will wake up to the reality that under his watch, the North has become one of the most dangerous places on earth  to live in. It will involve his acceptance that he, and no one else, has responsibility for the current state of the North. Not past administrations; not his opposition; not subversives and protesters. Just him. He controls the military, the police, the secret services, a legislature that asks ‘ how high?’ when he says ‘jump’, and awesome powers to use them. He has powers over all these, but he chooses to use pass-the-buck governors, his appointees and traditional leaders with no powers to try to engineer sympathy and point accusing fingers in the wrong direction. When the presidency creates a chorus line on an alleged attempt at regime change and the dangers of social media, you see evidence of pronounced denial of responsibility for the causes of the protests against insecurity, particularly in the north. You saw that in the president’s address; in the communique released after the meeting in Kaduna  involving  the highest levels of northern leadership;  in the levels of sympathy extended to losses from the south by northern leaders, even as northerners there were killed and their assets stolen or destroyed and places of worship destroyed.

There are three basic things our  leaders are doing wrong. One is that they are not responding appropriately to deep malaise created by poverty, absence of transparency and accountability in governance and the dangers of assuming that problems will walk away if sufficiently ignored. Whatever spin you put on the protests, there are real lessons and opportunities related to good and poor governance that should not be swept away with the debris. Two, they are confusing  means of expression with the rights and freedom of expression. Hashtags that criticize  leaders can also praise them. Social media cannot be condemned only on grounds that  they allow citizens to   criticize governments. It  certainly should be vigorously policed to protect society  from dangers of incitement and other abuses, but only governments competent to do this  and willing to tolerate dissent and criticism should do this. Our governments do not fall in this category, so they should adopt  more effective  solutions  to the discomforts of social media: good governance, higher levels of accountability and transparency. Three, they take northern communities for granted. There is an identifiable tendency to assume that the northerner is weighed down  by culture and tradition from expressing discontent over his circumstances. All too often, today’s leaders forget that Boko Haram insurgents were typical northerners a decade ago. Today's bandits were largely Fulani herders and Hausa peasants a few years ago. Criminals who rustle, kidnap, rape and  kill without any qualms were your run-of-mill northern poor who  themselves may have  been victims of other criminals not too long ago. It is not in the human character to keep submitting to abuse and injustice, because the human character always finds options.

Those who worry that our leaders are increasing the  size of the desperate and the hopeless in the North should resist with all  lawful pressure, and stop them or their kind from ever exercising power in future.

FGN Vs ASUU: try mediation.

“If you are building a house and the nail breaks, do you stop the building or do you change the nail?” African proverb

 

This newspaper splashed a rare, indignant front page comment two days ago, saying to the Federal Government and Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), “enough is enough!” It was the kind of intervention that compels you to read it, and you will be forgiven for believing that the comment provides additional sources of worry for both parties, the type that will provide strong incentives to bring another routine waste that both have perfected to a permanent end.

As would be expected from an exhortation deserving front page, there was a sharing of blames all round, lamentations over untold waste and hardship over matters that are not beyond resolution, appeals to  make sacrifices and lower egos in the interests of the nation and all stakeholders in university education and finally a plea to President Buhari to play father to all and bring this strike to an end.

You cannot blame this paper for not breaking new grounds in terms of providing new angles to a very old routine. Enough has never been enough to put an end to the fight-to-death involving  the federal government and ASUU on the one hand, and university education on the other for the last four decades. There is nothing to prove  beyond screaming evidence that academics make the worst  labour unionists, and when you scratch  their surface, you see all the negatives that have held back this nation from pursuing a sustained path of growth and development. The federal government has never pretended that higher education is not on its list of priorities, and its lack of respect for Nigerian academics is eminently supported by facts which  prove that they have no moral high ground to give them an advantage over those who make policies on University education.

Left to themselves, ASUU and the federal government will take their time to do exactly what they had done many times before. They will go through the motions of negotiating, wait for public sentiment to demand an end to young people sitting idly at home and upbraiding a government that does not care, knock together an agreement that puts  a little more money into pockets, record  promises to honour past promises, secure a commitment to improve funding everyone knows will not be honoured, and then resume, knowing very well that in a year or two, the circle will be started all over again. They should not be left to themselves any longer. If events in the last few weeks in the country have taught us anything, it must be that we have given too much room to leaders and governments to run the country aground. It should not be a matter of choice or convenience  for the federal government to ensure that universities stay open, funds are made available for teaching and research, and ASUU is treated as a partner and not an adversary in the development of university education. ASUU itself needs to understand that it occupies the lower rungs of social hierarchy of respect, and is barely distinguishable from looters of the future of our young, as well as the faith of students that their teachers at least will be redeeming elements in a country where aged generations have been condemned to  permanent odium by history. Both parties need to submit to third party, neutral mediators to  advise them on freeing themselves and the nation from being increasingly enslaved by a past.

There are good grounds to consider the value of agreeing to mediators to look at the issues that have kept universities closed in the short term, and clean up a cluttered past that keeps coming back to haunt the present and future. First, though, a number of major issues need to be agreed to. The federal government cannot both continue to fund its universities and settle arrears it may have agreed to pay just to get classes open. Government finances are in dire straits, and it will make more sense to negotiate on what can be secured and move on. This means some commitments that could not be honoured should be written off, and those that are central to the management of academic activities in the future should be accepted and built into funding processes henceforth. The arguments over IPPIS and UTAS are at best silly, and at worst a demeaning comment on the competences which the federal government deploys in dealing with its universities. It also says something about the arrogance of ASUU, the same mindset that deceives it into thinking that it is the exclusive custodian of university education in the country. What  is at stake is not payment systems and processes. It is deep distrust founded on strong evidence  that corruption is rampant in both systems. Both sides need to submit their systems to experts and neutral people who understand the peculiarities and basic requirements of university systems and designing systems that have higher levels of integrity.

It is vital to appreciate that this nation needs to do things differently in many facets of its existence. Federal government in particular must change an ingrained attitude that the way it runs the government is good enough for every Nigerian, unless they are sworn opponents or unrepentant subversives. Too many good, decent citizens are frightened away by the rapid collapse of governance standards, particularly in the light of mounting challenges around security, the economy,  alarming levels of alienation and anger of the young and opportunists who benefit from these to question the value of our survival as one country. Our politics is now our biggest liability. Our politicians think digging while they are in a ditch and throwIng the earth into opponents’ faces earns them some benefits. Those who think President Buhari is doing a good job lie to him, and worse, they do a great disservice to a nation in deep trouble. Others who think they should make things worse to spite him are worse than him, for, between them, they are creating a nation whose future is fearful and depressing for all.

In the hope that we are willing  to explore alternatives to our national regression, could we try utilizing mechanisms of mediation, a process that involves neutral, informed and honest citizens to advise on resolutions of some of our disputes? Starting with the ASUU-FG dispute, the suggestion is for both parties to agree on the process, agree on a small team of mediators, deploy trust in the process, submit their cases to them and commit to considering their advise with open minds? There are Nigerians out there who have integrity, knowledge of university systems, challenges of management of public finance, payment systems and public policy who will be willing to take a few weeks to vindicate our fading hopes that the nation can solve its problems.

It is important to remind both the federal government and ASUU that they do not own our universities. The education of our young is too important to leave to these two who know each other the way very old couples know each other: they quarrel like hell, but stay together because no one gets involved. It is time to try something new.

US: voting on a virus

“Do not marry a widow until you know what killed her husband”. African proverb.

As you read this, the final word over who wins the US Presidential elections is being awaited in more or less the same manner people wait for results of COVID-19 tests. America has a very complex electoral process. Nigerians will find a few of the key features of the US system particularly odd. The US does not have the equivalent of  INEC, that monolith which has responsibility for conducting all our elections, except for  Local Government Councils. Elections in the US are organized by States, county and city officials.US has no central voters register. Voters are registered in locations by local councils and States. There are many different ways you can vote in the US, unlike our system here where you can only vote by turning up at a polling center, getting accredited and casting your vote in the box. These are decided by local-level authorities. Popular votes, unlike the way most of the world have it, do not determine the winner. The US has a peculiarity called the electoral college, a hazy and complicating mirror image of the popular vote which can and does cancel the popular votes on rare occasions. In 2015, the candidate of the Democratic Party, Hilary Clinton won the popular votes by a margin of more than three million votes, but lost the elections to President Trump who had more of the electoral college votes. To win the elections, a candidate must get at least 270 of the 538 electoral college votes.

The frenzy of the last few weeks of campaigning was targeting  a tiny number of undecided voters, getting fringes into frenzy  and influencing the numbers of electoral college votes. There are key States and    electoral seats   at stake, and those at congress (federal)  level are vital in the manner they impact on the electoral college and the control of the two chambers. In the last few weeks, tens of millions of votes have been cast. Millions more will be counted only after close of polls yesterday. Then the  electoral college will give its verdict, which is final, unless there is a tie, or a party challenges the results in the courts. The result can be challenged all the way to the US Supreme Court, depending on the nature of the challenge. The possibility of the final verdict being tied up in all sorts of legal tangles and dragging the judiciary into a messy electoral dispute, and even post-election violence is real. Certainly, President Trump has laid the foundations for rejecting  the outcome of the elections if he loses. The US is bracing for the possibility of serious violence or a prolonged constitutional crisis following the elections. 

Nigerians will be less interested in the how, than  who becomes the next US President. But we will all  recognize the passion, the bitter contests and the suspicions over the electoral process.While some will have a wry smile at the realization that the most powerful democracy in the world bears some resemblance to ours, many will be worried that America’s democracy has exposed the nation’s  bare skeletons to a world that had deep reverence for its dignified protection of its vital elements. Americans had long been weaned off any pretenses that  this election would add value to US’s credentials as a leader among nations that aspire to live up to democratic ideals. The gloves came off with the elections of Trump, and the trajectory had been increasingly  unedifying since then.

The US elections are holding at a time of great concern over the rate of infections and deaths from COVID-19 virus in a country with the technology and resources to have no business with its statistics. In many ways, this election is about this virus. It is a plebiscite over Trump’s management of the virus from when it made its presence in China to this period when it is locking down half   the world for the second time and taking thousands of American lives weekly. The result will, in part, show whether  Americans approve  what appears to the cavalier manner Trump approached the entire threat of the virus, or if majority  of them believe he could have taken it more seriously, prepared for it better, respected the science around it more, and taken  difficult decisions that were the only ways of limiting its damage. It was inevitable that this virus will wear a political colour with an election around, but it assumed pride of place in the elections only because Trump adopted a style that suggested that his interpretation of the threat was unconventional and  superior, and it was not possible that he could be wrong. Against all the evidence on the ground that things will only get a lot worse in the next few weeks for US citizens  and the economy, Trump insists that a solution is round the corner, and concerns by those who disagree with him are unfounded hysteria. In the meantime,  about 1000 US citizens will start election day alive, and die before the day is over.

There is a virus afflicting America  that is more dangerous than Covid-19.It will be the real virus that will determine the outcome of the elections. This is the virus that affects the core character of the US, and threatens  to change it substantially, or even beyond recognition. It could give the US a chance to recover, although its vitals have been dangerously exposed and it will have to manage without full health. Its early symptoms have been manifested in a president who is anchored in a vey strong base that is comfortable with the cult of a leader who is committed to re-designing the basic elements that have made America what it had been, warts and all. This virus has damaged much of the values that the US had held out to the world as its sources of strength, even if had  not itself always  lived up to them. These include leadership  that  inspired  a nation with many divisions and limitations to believe in an America that holds a promise to be just, fair and compassionate; a nation with strong democratic institutions and processes that defy the ambitions and contempt of a president; an America with  global leadership capacities and credentials that should both protect its core interests and keep other ambitions at bay; and a US that serves as a model in a world where there are many competing attractions.

There will be millions of Americans who will dispute this interpretation with their votes. Their views are no less important than  those who think Trump represents everything that America is not and should not be. They will insist that Trump is what America needs at this moment: brash, unapologetic and unconventional in redressing the balances between an America that lives by its founding values,  and those imposed upon it by liberals and do-gooders who have made it weak. This election is a contest for  a major paradigm shift. It is an opportunity for Americans to put a stop to Trump’s vision of an America which bears his personal character, and another America that will recapture the ideals and the  challenges of the pre-Trump era. Do not put good money on either side winning. Americans have a very challenging future, fighting a run-away deadly virus, a deeply-divided nation and rediscovering a source of strength in a world becoming increasingly competitive and complex. Its  future will be worse if the elections themselves are disputed in a manner that will worsen its damaged image in the world.