Former military President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida is reported to have written to the national secretariat of his Party, the PDP, threatening to resign from the Party, unless it accepts and implements its own power rotation and zoning formula. The High Court in Abuja had last week ruled that the rotation formula is binding on all members, but declined to enforce it, insisting instead that it is an internal Party matter. If the Party implements the rotation formula on the grounds that it is legally binding and enforceable, it will bar President Goodluck Jonathan from contesting for the Party’s Presidential tickets. However, since the Court stopped short of enforcing the formula, it is left to the party to accept or reject it, or for the member who went to court to seek for its enforcement to appeal. It is already clear however that the party will not accept even the moral verdict against it, and has chosen to ignore the Court’s half-hearted attempt to deal with a patently political and sensitive matter.
Former President Babangida complains that the leadership of the Party is guilty of gross violations of its own Constitution, and that this will make it impossible for many members like him to remain members of the Party. He insists that the National Executive Committee of the Party must enforce the constitution of the Party in its totality, which includes the policy on rotation and zoning of party and public elective offices, right up to the office of President.
This is not the first time President Babangida is demanding that his Party enforces the rotation and zoning policy, which would preclude President Goodluck Jonathan from contesting for the PDP’s Presidential ticket. Indeed, this is what informed his campaigns and involvement in the efforts to procure a northern PDP consensus around a single candidate. When he lost the bid to become the northern consensus candidate, former President Babangida appeared to have submitted to the decisions of the Northern Political Elders Forum, and some of his former close associates are now part of the Atiku campaign team. In fairness to him, former President Babangida who in actual fact was the only real threat to Atiku in the consensus arrangement, has so far, been true to his promise that he will accept the consensus verdict, and not work against it.
Nonetheless, no matter what spin is placed on the outcome of the consensus arrangement, the fact is that former President Babangida lost the selection process to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. His political profile and influence have been severely diminished by this loss, because Nigerian politics has no place for also-runs, only winners. Whether he was schemed out or lost to a better candidate in a selection process, it is still a fact that majority of Northern Political Elders believe that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar will provide a stronger challenge to President Goodluck Jonathan than former President Babangida.
This is not to make case that former President Babangida has also lost his right to play important roles in his Party and the nation, although it could be argued that his standing and impact would have been much higher if he had not ventured into this contest which he lost. After all, many people have made the case that he would have made a much better elder Statesman and kingmaker like Adamu Ciroma, than a Candidate in a selection process which basically would have made him a tribal or regional candidate. The real question to ask is what impact former President Babangida’s threat would have. It is now obvious that most people are convinced that the Party leadership will not stop President Jonathan from running. Why, it should be asked, therefore, is President Babangida making this threat, knowing fully well that it will have no impact? Is he at the point of leaving the PDP and is therefore looking for an excuse? If former President Babangida acts on his threat and leaves the PDP, how much damage is he likely to inflict on it, or on Atiku’s chances of defeating President Jonathan at the Primaries? Is he looking for another political platform to contest for the Presidency? How much political capital does President Babangida have, and is it wiser to invest it in the PDP and help support the chances of a northern candidate, or better to invest it in his own personal ambition, possibly in another Party? Even if Babangida leaves the PDP and does not join another Party, is it not likely to be seen as a subversion of the consensus arrangement? It is also possible that former President Babangida is strengthening his hand and credentials as a leader of the North, and is therefore keeping the zoning issue on the hot burner for the PDP N.E.C’s meeting.
It is now beyond dispute that the PDP’s internal fights over its zoning and rotation formula will have a decisive and negative effect on its chances. Every effort will be made by the opponents of President Jonathan to stop him from securing the Party’s ticket, and former President Babangida’s threat is one of such efforts. Similarly, President Jonathan will leave no stone unturned to secure the ticket, even against strident complaints that he has no moral or legal right to do so.
The fight for the PDP ticket will be a bitter one indeed. This is why many observers will see Babangida’s threat as a mere attempt to break ranks with the resistance against President Jonathan’s ambitions. At any rate, if given the fact that Babangida’s political fortunes have diminished as a result of his loss to Atiku, many of his friends would have advised him to stay in the PDP and join forces with Atiku Abubakar and fellow losers to challenge President Jonathan. His political enemies will see his threat as vintage Babangida, a player who cannot be trusted not to have another card up his sleeve. At the twilight of his political career, it may be necessary for former President Babangida to think of how history will remember him, and the manner he deploys his considerable survival instinct and intelligence will be important in this regard.
For the nation, it is necessary to remind our leaders to pay very close attention to what is going on in Cote d’Ivoire where a disputed election between a Northern and Southern Candidate has resulted in a dangerous political stalemate, and has brought that country even closer to an all-out civil war. Nigeria’s only chance to avoid being another Cote d’Ivoire lies in our leaders respecting the rules of the game, operating within the laws of the land, and exhibiting the highest levels of maturity, patriotism and responsibility. The records of our leaders, especially those in the PDP in this respect is so far, is not reassuring. Nigerians should tell them in very clear terms not to destroy this country in the course of their pursuit of their personal ambitions.
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