EMBARRASSING QUARRELS IN THE JUDICIARY

The nation is watching the unfolding of an embarrassing drama involving the highest echelons of the Nigerian Judiciary which could not have been more badly-timed. The published and undignifying letter from the President of the Court of Appeal, Justice Isa salami to the Chief Justice of the Federation, Justice Katsina-Alu and the National Judicial Council, as well as the alleged provocations behind the published letter are major sources for public concern. The quarrels are providing opportunities for many groups and individuals to further dent the image of the judiciary, or read their own meanings into the disputes. At a time when the judiciary is about to be engaged in massive adjudications of electoral cases, many with potentially very high stakes, these disputes are both unnecessary and unbecoming. The matter has now been made worse by the reported plea to a High Court to stop Justice Salami’s removal from the Court of Appeal by the Justice himself.  

This undignifying episode involving highly respected members of the Bench was triggered by the letter written and released to the Press by Justice Isa Ayo Salami, protesting plans by the Chief Justice of Nigeria to move him up to the Supreme Court as a Justice of the apex Court, from his position as President of the Court of Appeal. Ordinarily, this should be seen as an elevation, and if the proper procedures have been followed, there would have been little to quarrel over, particularly since there have been reported precedents. But both Justice Ayo Salami and his supporters argue that there are sinister motives behind the plan, and have raised all manner of technicalities to make a mockery of the attempt. Justice Salami himself has declared publicly that Chief Justice of Nigeria had made an unsuccessful attempt to get him to deliver a particular verdict on the Sokoto State Gubernatorial case earlier.

Justice Ayo Salami is protesting and rejecting the plan to appoint him as Supreme Court Justice because he alleges that the Chief Justice of Nigeria really wants to move him away from his present position in order to appoint someone else who is more amenable to the control of the Chief Justice. He complains that due process has not been followed in the matter, and, in any case, he is not interested in moving up to the Supreme Court. The language of Justice Salami and the combative nature of his protests suggest that there is some element of bad blood between Justice Salami and Chief Justice Katsina-Alu. The Federal Judicial Service Commission and the National Judicial Council which are all supposed to be involved in the process of appointing or elevating Judges and Justices have not commented on the issue. The Chief Justice of Nigeria has also not spoken publicly in response to Justice Salami’s letter, although Justice Salami claims that the Chief Justice has actually commenced the formal process of removing him from the Court of Appeal.

Nigerians are not going to be impressed by this development and the manner it is being handled, no matter who is right or wrong. The public domain is the worst place to settle a matter of this sensitivity, and people of the standing and position of these Justices should know better than to make their cases in public. Clearly, there is something seriously wrong in the professional and personal relationship of Justice Salami and Chief Justice Katsina-Alu. On face value, Justice Salami should be reprimanded for taking his issues with the Chief Justice to the public, because the only obvious conclusion to be drawn from his action is that he intends to politicize the matter, and embarass of the Chief Justice and the National Judicial Council. Now that he has gone to Court to challenge the attempt to remove him, we are dealing with an entirely new issue, which will suggest a major breakdown of the institutions which govern relations in the judiciary. 

But if indeed there are attempts by the Chief Justice to remove Justice Salami as President of the Court of Appeal for the type of reasons he claims, then the nation has much cause to worry. To imply that the Chief Justice wants a stooge he can control at the lower Court, at a time when the Court of Appeal is about to commence adjudication over many sensitive cases arising from electoral disputes is a very serious charge. The Chief Justice of Nigeria will not satisfy the concern of Nigerians by a silent response to this accusation, even though, of course, the earlier this issue is taken out of the public domain the better. It is even more worrying that Justice Salami is bringing back the infamous Sokoto Gubernatorial case, which had divided the legal and judicial community in Nigeria right down the middle, and is still before the Courts.

Without prejudice to the internal processes involved in appointments, promotions and discipline of Justices of the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court, the National Judicial Council must address the serious claims of Justice Salami against Chief Justice Katsina-Alu. The nation needs assurances that these are not preliminary skirmishes around the role of the judiciary in the April 2011 elections. Nigerians need to know the genesis of this dispute, and whether it is storm in a teacup or a gathering storm which will seriously damage the reputation of the judiciary and compromise the quality of the electoral process. If Justice Salami has conducted himself in a manner which requires some consideration for disciplinary measures, this should also be handled by the National Judicial Council openly and fairly.

As is in the nature of the legal profession, there are already many opinions on this matter, including attempts to get the Courts to stop Justice Salami’s move. These public debates are not helping the situation. What needs to be done can be done expeditiously and with maturity by the National Judicial Council and by the Chief Justice of Nigeria himself. Now that Justice Salami has taken his case both to the public and the Court, the highest levels of maturity and responsibility are needed to bring this controversy quickly to an end.

In the meantime, people in sensitive and important positions should keep in mind that Nigerians have genuinely high expectations that the elections in April 2011 will be conducted fairly and freely. Since the judiciary has a major role to play in settling disputes from these elections, it is a vital component of the electoral process which can determine the quality of the elections. This is why any development in the judiciary, especially a development of this nature in which the integrity of the leadership of the judiciary is being questioned or ridiculed publicly should worry Nigerians. We want an explanation for what is going on, and we want an end to any attempt to limit the capacity of the judiciary to play its key role in the forthcoming elections.       

PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION IN EGYPT

In early January this year a young unemployed Tunisian set himself on fire in public and died a few days later in order to show his bitterness at his personal circumstances. It now appears that he also lit the fires of revolutionary change in his country Tunisia, and across the entire North Africa and the Middle East. It took only two days of mass protests after his death in Tunisia for the President to flee the country. Since then, a new leader and cabinet have been installed after 23 years of the rule of President Ben Ali, and still Tunisians are demanding for more changes. The signs are that the Tunisian leadership will make more and more concessions until a democratic system which allows the Tunisian people to elect their own leaders under a liberal democratic constitution is firmly in place.

          The fire that was lit in Tunisia quickly spread to Algeria, Jordan and Yemen. But by far the biggest flames are those which have been burning across the ancient land of Egypt for the last two weeks in full view of a global television audience. President Hosni Mubarak, who has been in power for 31 years is being popularly and spontaneously challenged by the Egyptian people. The Egyptian people have impressed the world with their resolve, courage and contempt for a leadership which has taken its permanence for granted, and had never doubted for a moment that it can perpetuate itself in power as long as it pleases.

          When the people of Cairo, and then citizens from other cities in Egypt poured out into the streets, they had only one demand: that President Mubarak must step down. Millions of young people, and Egyptians of all sexes and ages overcame their fear of a regime which had used State power to repress them for three decades, and defied the leadership and its police and its army and hired supporters. Many have died since the uprising started, and thousands have been injured and detained, yet they will not abandon their occupation of public places, marches across cities, or the single demand that President Mubarak must resign now. Even when the President offered to step down in September, and attempted to introduce some changes in the ruling Party and promised that his son will not succeed him, the people stood their ground. Even in the face of threats by the military to flush them out of the city centers, with cold and hunger and the constant threat of state-sponsored violence facing them, Egyptian people are still adamant that President Mubarak must go now. Negotiations with elements of the opposition have not yielded much either, since the popular, spontaneous uprising cannot be claimed or monopolized by Mubarak’s traditional opposition. As things stand now, majority of Egyptians appear bent on seeing the immediate end of Mubarak’s rule, and he in turn appears ready to stay in power and leave only on his terms. Either the protests will die down because the people are too tired, too hungry or too weak to continue, or President Mubarak will eventually yield to the popular demand to go now. In the meantime, many regimes like Mubarak’s in Egypt are reading the writings on the wall, and will attempt to put in place cosmetic political changes, which however, will not work.      

          Whichever way the uprising in Egypt is resolved, it would have set the stage for an irreversible political change in the largest Arab country in the world. Mubarak’s days are numbered, whether he leaves now or in September. Egyptians will never tolerate another dictatorship and a repressive regime such as Mubarak’s. No one can be certain of what political forces will take over Egypt, but the nature of the popular uprising of the people today will suggest that whoever governs Egypt in future will have to do so with the genuine mandate of the Egyptian people.

          Across the entire Arab world, politics will change radically. Arab people have been repressed for too long by leaders who are supported by the Western powers to guarantee political stability in the Middle East at the expense of real democracy for the people. Arab people have been sacrificed, and dictators, many of them barely alive, have been allowed to rule them for decades under the dubious claim that Arabs cannot operate democratic systems. The cost for guaranteed Middle East oil and security for Israel was the right of Arab people to live, like all other people, under democratic systems. Now the Western powers are unsure over what to do. Ordinary citizens have demanded that their repressive and corrupt leaders step down. Many of these leaders have built up long-standing personal and strategic relationships with the US and its allies, which has also supported them through their main structures, which is their military. Major re-thinking is going on in Western capitals over a future Middle East without aging dictators, and a nations of people free to express themselves under democratic systems. 

          History is being made by ordinary men and women in Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan and Yemen. These changes will spread to Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria and many other Arab countries. There are also many non-Arab African countries where elections are routinely-rigged, or widely disputed. The lessons from these fundamental changes taking place are many; but the most profound is that leaders who take their own people for granted will pay a price, sooner or later. For us in Nigeria, what is happening in Egypt and neighboring countries is a reminder that the April elections must be absolutely credible, free and fair. This is the only guarantee that our people will not rise up in anger as we are witnessing in neighboring Arab and Middle Eastern countries. We can do this, and we must do it!

WHAT YOUR REGISTRATION CARD MEANS

Now that the Registration of Voters Exercise is over, and the next stage of the electoral practice is about to commence, citizens who labored to be registered as voters need to understand the value of their registration cards. But first, every Nigerian who registered as a voter needs to be commended and congratulated for his or her patriotism and commitment to our growing democratic process. The overwhelming turnout of people, majority of whom had to withstand much delays, frustrations and hardship, is a clear indication that our citizens believe in the democratic process, and even though many are skeptical that the elections will be free and fair, they have turned out in their millions to register to vote. INEC and those politicians who are used to subverting the will of the Nigerian electorate had better take note.

          Those who have not bothered to register have also exercised their democratic rights not to register. But they should know that people who cannot bother to register and vote to elect their leaders often lose the moral basis of judging those leaders in terms of their competence or integrity. But this does not deprive them of the right to be led by competent and honest leaders. There will also be those who refused to register because they will claim that their experience has taught them that votes do not count, and that elections in Nigeria are always rigged. Such people have already defeated themselves, because they have rewarded the election riggers twice over. They have dropped out of the process of selecting leaders, and they have deprived the nation of their vigilance and anger which would have been translated into a more effective citizenry which should police the electoral process. Still, these people have a role to play.  They should encourage those who are voters to go out and vote, as well as join in any lawfully process that will shield this elections from being rigged. Those who are unable to register trough no fault of theirs should wait for another opportunity, but they are still important to the electoral process.

          For those who have registered, their future is in their hands. They now have the power to decide who will lead them, either by making laws or by implementing them. They have the power to settle arguments among Parties and candidates over who is better. They have powers to punish Parties who fielded weak and unpopular candidates. They have power to express their opinions on zoning and rotation, on the internal democratic process of their Party, on former Party leaders, on the use of money and grassroot support, and on religion, tribe and region. In short, those who will vote are now the most powerful group of Nigerians.

          What makes them powerful, however, is their voter’s card. This card is your ballot, and your ballot is your power to speak as a citizen. It must be protected by everyone who has registered, among the most valued of our possessions. It must be protected against loss, theft or damage. Above all, it must not be sold for a small amount of money to people who will use it to rig elections. The possibility that voters’ cards will be bought and sold by citizens and merchants of voter’s cards are real. In the past, many corrupt politicians have waited until citizens register, then they move in with money, fertilizer, salt and sugar to buy these cards. They then issue them on polling days to others who then vote. This is rigging of the worst type. It involves impersonation and the denial of citizens of their rights to vote. It capitalizes on the poverty of our people to disenfranchise them, while using money to foist unpopular candidates.

          Yet another method used to rig elections in advance is when politicians buy hundreds or thousands of cards from poor or unpatriotic citizens and then destroy them. They do this particularly in areas where they think their opponents are strong. On voting days, very few people are available to vote for their opponents, and they have used money once again to subvert the electoral process.

          Citizens who have labored to vote must also be vigilant and speak out on polling days again under-age voters. If you have gone through a lot of hardship to register and vote for candidate and party of your choice, and yet you turn a blind eye on underage voters, it is quite possible that the politician who sponsored under-aged voters is working against your candidate and party. One man or woman one vote really does mean that only citizens who are entitled under law can vote, and all of us have only one vote. Twenty under-aged voters can make a major difference in a poling unit, and many of them in many polling-units will succeed in rigging an election.

          Now that candidates will cover the length and breadth of Nigeria to solicit for our votes, it is important to remember that they will do this only because we are voters, and we can and will decide their fates. It is the card in our hands that gives us this power. Lose it or sell it, and you are a spectator in a major issue which will determine the quality our lives and the destiny of our nation.      

       

REMOVING TRUCKS FROM OUR HIGHWAYS

Nigerians will be very pleased with the news that the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency, FERMA, has awarded contracts for the provision and fencing of seven pilot Truck Parks at Tafa on Abuja Kaduna Road and Maraban Jos on Kaduna – Zaria Road. Other places where the Truck Parks will be provided include Akiyele in Oyo State, Umuchieze in Abia State. According to the Managing Director of FERMA, each Truck Park will be equipped with conveniences, rest areas, vehicle repair and servicing facilities, filling stations and restaurants that will be of international standards.

          Although the Managing Director did not mention when these Parks will be ready, most Nigerians who use our major highways will hope that they will be completed very soon. The danger which trucks pose in these places mentioned are known to everyone, and yet Nigerians have come to live with them, and many have died as a result of them. Many people actually believe that no Government can do anything about the drivers who have turned our highways in Tafa, Maraban Jos and other places into death traps. Many people have died on these dangerous spots simply because; it appears that the petrol tanker drivers in particular choose to park anywhere at anytime, and sometimes in their hundreds. They block highways, leaving barely enough space for one vehicle to pass, and when they park or drive out, everyone must wait while they maneuver their dangerous vehicles around. In many instances, the drivers themselves merely leave these vehicles to young touts to park and maintain, while they retire to their long-term sex workers in these towns. No one dares touch these people, because at the slightest provocation, their unions threaten strike, or they use one or two trucks to block our highways for hours or days.

          Because of the brazen lawlessness of these tanker drivers, the towns they have chosen to make their rendezvous have also become high crime areas. Commercial Sex Workers, drug peddlers, thieves and robbers all find hiding places in these places.  Security agents, such as the Police rush to be posted to these places, given the high crime activities and huge financial turnovers. Sexually transmitted diseases, child prostitution and all manners of petty crimes have become endemic in these areas. In short, these places where Truck and Petrol tanker drivers do not only offend our safety and security, they also represent major sources of moral and cultural corruption.

          It is a great pity that the situation has been allowed to develop to its present state, where it is not even certain that the construction of these Parks will make these drivers stop parking their dangerous vehicles on our roads. Why do we need to wait for years for these Parks to be ready when the Federal government, which owns the Right of way, can enforce regulations on the use of our roads, and in particular, the illegal parking on highway shoulders by trucks, which deprives other road users the use of this important safety facility? Why shouldn’t the Federal Road Safety Commission collaborate with the Police, the National Road Transport owners and workers and the traditional authorities in these towns to force trucks and trailers to park away from highways? Why won’t the government penalize major distributors of petroleum and gas and other products for the action of their drivers? Is it because everyone who can stop this dangerous practice is benefiting from it, and Nigerians die daily because of it?

          We should demand, as a matter of priority that these trucks and trailers should stop parking on our highways. There are enough places even in Tafa and Maraban Jos where they can park safely and move out whenever they wish. Any Policemen assigned to these places who lets even one of them to park should be disciplined. Government should enact stronger legislation to punish both the drivers, and the owners of the products in illegally parked vehicles. Government must immediately engage Transport Owners and Workers Unions to agree on the need to clear this expanding danger from our highways.

          The important point to note is that even when these Parks are completed, truck drivers who already think they are above the law may refuse to use them. That is why it is important to begin to enforce laws which protect the lives of ordinary citizens, and which Truck Drivers believe have no effect on them. 

REMOVING TRUCKS FROM OUR HIGHWAYS

Nigerians will be very pleased with the news that the Federal Roads Maintenance Agency, FERMA, has awarded contracts for the provision and fencing of seven pilot Truck Parks at Tafa on Abuja Kaduna Road and Maraban Jos on Kaduna – Zaria Road. Other places where the Truck Parks will be provided include Akiyele in Oyo State, Umuchieze in Abia State. According to the Managing Director of FERMA, each Truck Park will be equipped with conveniences, rest areas, vehicle repair and servicing facilities, filling stations and restaurants that will be of international standards.

          Although the Managing Director did not mention when these Parks will be ready, most Nigerians who use our major highways will hope that they will be completed very soon. The danger which trucks pose in these places mentioned are known to everyone, and yet Nigerians have come to live with them, and many have died as a result of them. Many people actually believe that no Government can do anything about the drivers who have turned our highways in Tafa, Maraban Jos and other places into death traps. Many people have died on these dangerous spots simply because; it appears that the petrol tanker drivers in particular choose to park anywhere at anytime, and sometimes in their hundreds. They block highways, leaving barely enough space for one vehicle to pass, and when they park or drive out, everyone must wait while they maneuver their dangerous vehicles around. In many instances, the drivers themselves merely leave these vehicles to young touts to park and maintain, while they retire to their long-term sex workers in these towns. No one dares touch these people, because at the slightest provocation, their unions threaten strike, or they use one or two trucks to block our highways for hours or days.

          Because of the brazen lawlessness of these tanker drivers, the towns they have chosen to make their rendezvous have also become high crime areas. Commercial Sex Workers, drug peddlers, thieves and robbers all find hiding places in these places.  Security agents, such as the Police rush to be posted to these places, given the high crime activities and huge financial turnovers. Sexually transmitted diseases, child prostitution and all manners of petty crimes have become endemic in these areas. In short, these places where Truck and Petrol tanker drivers do not only offend our safety and security, they also represent major sources of moral and cultural corruption.

          It is a great pity that the situation has been allowed to develop to its present state, where it is not even certain that the construction of these Parks will make these drivers stop parking their dangerous vehicles on our roads. Why do we need to wait for years for these Parks to be ready when the Federal government, which owns the Right of way, can enforce regulations on the use of our roads, and in particular, the illegal parking on highway shoulders by trucks, which deprives other road users the use of this important safety facility? Why shouldn’t the Federal Road Safety Commission collaborate with the Police, the National Road Transport owners and workers and the traditional authorities in these towns to force trucks and trailers to park away from highways? Why won’t the government penalize major distributors of petroleum and gas and other products for the action of their drivers? Is it because everyone who can stop this dangerous practice is benefiting from it, and Nigerians die daily because of it?

          We should demand, as a matter of priority that these trucks and trailers should stop parking on our highways. There are enough places even in Tafa and Maraban Jos where they can park safely and move out whenever they wish. Any Policemen assigned to these places who lets even one of them to park should be disciplined. Government should enact stronger legislation to punish both the drivers, and the owners of the products in illegally parked vehicles. Government must immediately engage Transport Owners and Workers Unions to agree on the need to clear this expanding danger from our highways.

          The important point to note is that even when these Parks are completed, truck drivers who already think they are above the law may refuse to use them. That is why it is important to begin to enforce laws which protect the lives of ordinary citizens, and which Truck Drivers believe have no effect on them. 

2011 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

The nation now knows who the candidates of the major Parties for the Presidency of the Federal Republic of Nigeria are. President Goodluck Jonathan is being fielded by the PDP along with Architect Muhammad Namadi Sambo, the Vice President. General Muhammadu Buhari and Pastor Tunde Bakare are the candidates of the Congress for Progressive Change. The All Nigeria Peoples Party is fielding Malam Ibrahim Shekarau and the Former Governor of Edo State, John Odigie-Oyegun. The Action Congress of Nigeria is fielding Malam Nuhu Ribadu and Dr. Sunny Ugochukwu.

          The stage is now set for monumental battles, which will test the resilience of the emerging democratic traditions of our country. The P.D.P as the dominant Party will be confronted by three other Parties, each with a claim to some credible chance of having its candidate elected. The campaigns will be both interesting and challenging, in view of the events and developments which have substantially altered the political terrain in the last one year.  

          The PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan have mixed fortunes, and their chances of success will largely depend on the degree to which they address their obvious limitations. One of these weaknesses is the perception that President Goodluck Jonathan has deprived the North of an opportunity to field another Northerner as a PDP candidate for the 2011 elections. There are many people in the North who will not forgive him for this, and very dirty campaigns against his candidature will emphasize negative elements of treachery in his character and his religions faith. He will also have to contend with hostility from strong people in the old PDP brigade who had rallied around Atiku Abubakar, and who may still nurse grievances against the manner of his loss, and the orchestrated humiliation of the North by PDP Northern Governors who supported Jonathan. He may substantially overcome these limitations in the manner he targets major sources of hostility and limiting their potential damage by positively engaging Northerners who have relevance in religious and community affairs. He will also have to move quickly and decisively to limit the damage which the Party suffered as a result of its Primaries. He will also have contain the spreading fire of insecurity in many parts of the North which threaten to show his concernment as incompetent. He will also have to keep Niger Delta secure and peaceful to show that he has support at his backyard.    

          On the other hand, his strength may lie in the support of PDP Governors, who will also expect him to reciprocate by working for their success at the polls. This is a very sensitive area he will need to handle with great care, because the Northern Governors in particular are aware of the depth of feeling over what is perceived by people as their loyalty to either Jonathan or to the North. Their own fortunes may depend largely on how they are seen to relate to the Jonathan campaign. Many Northern Governors will work a very tight rope, balancing their own interests against an overt, active support for President Jonathan.   

          President Jonathan may also count on the support of the South-South and, to a lesser extent, the South East, going by the result of the PDP Convention, but even this is not an absolute given. A delicate negotiation and understanding on whether he will also run in 2015 if he wins in 2011, and if the South East will produce the next PDP Presidential candidate will have to be handled with sensitivity. The South West will be a difficult terrain for President Jonathan, given the massive influence of the ACN and the Labor Party in that zone. President Jonathan will also expect to benefit from the growing distance between the Muslim and Christian North, although, again, there are still significant residual sentiments about a political North among the old Northern brigades. Vice President Namadi Sambo will need to be very busy mending walls and limiting the damaging divisions along ethnic and religious lines in the North, as well as selling President Jonathan as a credible and genuine leadership material under whom the North will have both peace and prosperity. But the major battle will have to be fought by President Jonathan himself, who has to leave the comfort of Abuja and cover the length and breadth of Nigeria and assure citizens that he can find solutions to insecurity, lack of basic infrastructure and underdevelopment of the ordinary Nigerians citizen. He will not win the Presidency by remote control. President Goodluck Jonathan has a good chance to win, if he can exploit the weaknesses of the North, and heal the damaging raptures that are evident in his party arising from the Primaries.   

          General Muhammadu Buhari and his Party, the CPC started with a tremendous promise, but has lost a lot of steam in the manner they failed to capitalize on his immense popularity. The General is very popular among the ordinary citizens in the North, and many other Nigerians who believe that he can provide good leadership for Nigeria in a different direction. His running mate may mitigate the negative perception the General has in many parts of the North and other parts of Nigeria over his religious faith. But mainstream Christian North may not feel comfortable with a Pentecostal Pastor as his running mate. The CPC has lost huge political capital in the manner it mishandled intra-party issues, and over its failure to achieve a strategic electoral alliance with the ACN much earlier than now. As things stand now, the Party will pay dearly for lost opportunities and the subversion by its members in many States such as Kebbi, Katsina, Kano and many other parts of the North. The situation of the CPC will be aptly captured in the Hausa proverb which laments that a good party  can not be attended because there is no appropriate dress to wear.

          The CPC has a formidable Presidential team which can challenge the PDP, but it has to work very hard to assure Northern Muslims and Christians that they can find peace and accommodation under its leadership. It has to reach the South-East and South-South and sell the messages of a new Nigeria, with the pristine record of Gen Buhari and the impeccable courage and commitment of Pastor Bakare at the helm. It has to mend many fences, and re-integrate many of its disillusioned members that it is the party of the masses and the future. To do this General Buhari leader who has become captive of a clique in his Party.

          Malam Nuhu Ribadu and his running mate can make major inroads if they are successful in selling the message of a National rebirth. They represent the hope of young Nigerians, and their Nigerian elders who worry that they are leaving behind a terrible legacy for their children. Malam Ribadu’s ACN has a strength in the South West and has made serious advances into other parts of Nigeria in the recent past. While it has reduced its limiting image as an ethnic party therefore, it still has to fashion out winning strategic alliances with one other Party which now does not seem feasible. As it stands, both the ACN and CPC have wasted excellent opportunities to engineer winning electoral strategies long before now. Whatever the reasons for this historic failure, and they do not go beyond the sad fact that only General Buhari in the CPC and Governor  Bola Tinubu call the shots in the ACN, the fact still remains that today both Parties have Presidential candidates, and both have to fish in the same small ponds. They are more likely to damage each other, than damage the PDP, unless they can agree to urge their members to votes en bloc for the other candidate given the rather disappointing and bitter end to the protracted negotiations, these two parties will go into the field as enemies, not friends.

Malam Shekarau’s ANPP would appear to be the weakest of the four major Parties. This Party has suffered seriously from the defection of General Buhari and his millions of supporters and opportunists, as well as the dominance of its State Governors in its affairs. Its Candidate, Malam Shekarau has a very good record of accomplishment as Governor, but it is doubtful if Nigerians in sufficient numbers can trust him and his Party with the nation’s leadership. This is a pity, because Malam Shekarau may be precisely the type of leader Nigerians need to break from the past, and build bridges across communities, restore human dignity, honest governments and faith in leaders.

For those who are interested in geo-ethnic equations, the facts on the ground are that three candidates, all Muslims from the far North, will challenge one candidate who is both Christian and from a minority tribe in the South. The North will be torn to shreds by the vigorous campaigns of President Jonathan, and the three other northern Candidates, all of whom will take a major chunk of the North. It is not difficult to predict that PDP’s Candidates will have easy ride, because northern politicians have made it easy for them.

But, parties do not elect themselves. Citizens will exercise their choices, and with a free and fair election, any of the candidates that convinces Nigerians that he will offer the best leadership will win. In the end, it is only a free and fair election that will determine the President, not his tribe, religious faith, or his Party. This is why every vote in the 2011 elections must count.

ONE-TERM JONATHAN

In far away Ethiopia, President Goodluck Jonathan informed a group of Nigerians that he has no plans to run for another term in 2015. He stated that he will ensure free and fair elections from the April polls this year, and if voted in for the next four years, he will ensure significant improvements in key sectors of the economy such as security, power, education, roads and health, among others.

This is the first time that President Jonathan himself will state that he has no plans to run after 2015. On a number of occasions, his aides and campaign managers had mentioned this, but on all those occasions, little attention was paid to these claims, largely because Nigerians thought they were part of the campaign for the PDP Presidential ticket. Some of his spokespersons and campaign managers raised the issue of one more term to assuage the fears of the North and other parts of Nigeria that he, and by extension, the South of Nigeria, would likely govern for 12 years, if he runs and wins again in 2015. The South East PDP in particular was becoming concerned that if President Jonathan runs for another two terms, and the Presidency moves to the North, it will then have to wait for another 20 years to have a shot at the Presidency. This was becoming a major obstacle in terms of securing the PDP South-East bloc votes for the President.

Another set of campaign managers raised a legal issue. They argued that the Constitution of Nigeria does not permit anyone to be sworn-in more than twice as President of the Federal Republic under any circumstances, and if the President were to seek for another term after 2015, assuming he wins in 2011, he will be violating the Constitution. This interpretation was intended to assure all Nigerians who were apprehensive that he will disregard the two years he took to complete late President ‘YarAdua’s term, and seek for two fresh terms of his own. Needless to say, this position has not been subjected to a rigorous legal scrutiny, and there is no guarantee that the Constitution itself will not be amended to make it possible for Presidents to be sworn-in more than twice in future.

President Jonathan’s promise to serve for only one additional term if elected in 2011 can still be seen in the context of electioneering campaign. Among those who will believe him, the promise may lower some hostility against him in the North, since it may be assumed that the Presidency will move to the North. Those who will find comfort in this assurance and assumption obviously do not understand that President Jonathan’s candidature has effectively killed the zoning and rotation principle in the PDP. Whether he serves for four years, if elected in 2011, or eight years, issues regarding the rotation of the Presidency will be irrelevant. The position of the PDP Presidential ticket is now an all-comers business, and the PDP North will be ill advised to put any political value to it. Indeed, given its numerical superiority, if the North achieves political unity, it should be in the forefront in the fight against rotation, and for the institutionalization of credible, free and fair elections. That the North today is abjectly making a case in the favor of a rotated Presidency is a reflection of its political poverty.

In any case, if President Jonathan’s promise not to seek a third term in 2015 is intended to gain him some political capital, its value will be very limited indeed. The manner in which the rotation principle of the PDP was subverted by the President and his supporters, many of them key architects and beneficiaries of the principle, will create genuinely founded doubts in the minds of many people. President Obasanjo’s failed attempt to tinker with the Constitution and give himself a third term is also fresh in the minds of many people. The sad fact about power is that it is difficult to give up, and Nigerians are not blind to the transformation of Vice President Goodluck Jonathan into a President who is fighting with all the resources at his disposal to win a second term.

President Jonathan is a candidate who will have to convince Nigerians that he is better than other candidates to be elected president. Nigerians will judge him on his pedigree and his antecedents, including his performance as a President. Matters relating to what happens in 2015 are too far in the minds of Nigerians. What the nation wants from president Jonathan now is an absolute and transparent commitment to a free and fair election in April, and the creation of a secure enabling environment, which will allow all citizens to vote freely, and for their votes to count.    

     

EMERGENCE OF PARTY CANDIDATES

As the Electoral Act prescribes, all Parties have just submitted the list of their Candidates for all elective offices for the April elections.  The only notable exception is the absence of the Borno State ANPP Candidate, who was murdered in cold blood in broad daylight last week. INEC has granted the Borno State ANPP an additional 11days to produce another gubernatorial candidate. The submission of the Party Candidates’ list will both mark the conclusion of an important stage in the electoral process, as well as the beginning of major quarrels and intense campaigns for the votes of the electorate. Without any doubt, the processes that produced the final list of candidates for the major Parties reflect the lowest standards of intra-Party democracy, and the decreasing quality of our democratic system. In the run-up to the Primaries, and during the Primaries and Congresses, the nation saw the most flagrant abuses of the rules governing intra-party contests. Selection of delegates was monopolized substantially by Governors and Party executives, which virtually guaranteed the victory of favored candidates. Delegates were heavily compromised in many instances with money in full view and knowledge of all; and candidates that paid the most won the elections. In fact, many Partymen and women merely sought to be selected or elected as delegates because they knew they would make a lot of money from one or two candidates. Even where delegates and party officials were induced to vote for a particular candidate, there was no guarantee he or she will eventually emerge victorious, because at any stage in the many layers of decision-making in the Party, party officials could substitute him or her at will. But by far the most damaging assault on intra-party democracy was embedded in the amended Electoral Act, which gave parties unquestionable powers to submit any candidate to INEC, and precludes INEC from rejecting any candidate forwarded by any Party under any circumstances. This provision has left many Nigerians bewildered, in view of the elaborate provisions in the Electoral Act giving INEC powers to supervise and ensure that Primaries, Congresses and Conventions are conducted in accordance with the rules of the Party; yet the same Act virtually destroys all these provisions by giving Parties the power to decide who is their candidate, irrespective of what transpires at the Primaries. The provision is what has been responsible for the long drawn-out disputes over Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates in many States and Parties, such as Katsina, Kano, Bauchi, Oyo, Ogun and Kogi, as well as many other parts of the country. Aspirants fought desperately to emerge as Candidates, sometimes by forcing many re-run elections, or preventing re-runs. Party officials assumed huge powers to decide on who is the winner, knowing that neither INEC nor the Courts will challenge anyone whose name they forward. Between the 15th of January when going by the law, Party Primaries came to an end, and the 31st of January when the list of candidates had to be submitted, Parties had a free hand to decide who to forward as their candidates. The bitter contests, and the quarrels over their legality or otherwise moved to State and National Party headquarters, and the role of ordinary party men and women who exercised their choices were forgotten, as powerful aspirants battled each other among party officials. Nigerians will be very surprised at what the final list of the PDP and the CPC in particular will look like. Many will be angry, and many party loyalists will turn their backs against their Parties as a result of the decisions of the Parties. Party leaders will defend their decisions in the interest of the Party, and electoral fortunes, and in some instances, they will insist that candidates whose names have been forwarded to INEC actually won at the Primaries. INEC will have to accept the decision of the Parties, and even those who emerged after primaries held after January 15th are likely to squeeze through, because INEC is not likely to have the will or the time and resources to take up the might of the PDP in potentially complicated legal battles over candidates, with literally a few weeks to elections. Among the lists forwarded by Parties, there will be many who have won their Primaries in a free and fair contest. To these, we wish the best of luck. There will also be many whose emergence as Candidates is the product of the subversion of party rules, the violation of the will of party members, and a veritable source of division and conflict within the parties. Many powerful party aspirants will now campaign against their Parties, since they cannot change ship at this stage. For those who are now candidates, the second stage of the contest will now begin. They will have to fly their party’s flags while fighting opponents from within and outside their parties. Many parties will lose elections because of the choices they made in their Candidates. Many Nigerians who participated eagerly in the Primaries will be disillusioned once again because what they thought are popular and election-winning candidates have lost out. Indeed, many Nigerians are curiously waiting to see how many members of our State and National Assemblies who lost at the Primaries will be returned by their Parties, since they have been boasting that they will be back. If the standards of our intra-party democratic practices have not developed sufficiently to form the bedrock of free and fair elections, there is very little hope that the quality of our elections will improve. A major yardstick for assessing the impact of the absence of intra-party democracy on the overall quality of our democracy will be how the Parties, or the PDP in particular, handles the fate of the large numbers of their legislators who lost at the Primaries. Every Nigerian will hope that the Party that prides itself as the pacesetter in Africa will respect the will of its members, and forward the names of those members who defeated their sitting legislators as candidates. If the Party fails to do this, it may pay a huge electoral price, which is its business. But it is the business of the nation when large numbers of people who will make laws for Nigerians are given undeserved advantages against the rules of their own party, and in violation of the rights of other party members. If citizens cannot nominate and vote for people of their own choices, democracy will mean very little to them. Those who doubt this should note what is happening in Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Yemen and Sudan. The citizens of those countries are just like Nigerians. We all want to live under the authority of people we elected freely and openly.  

AREWA CONSULTATIVE FORUM’S BELATED COMMUNIQUÉ

Yesterday the Arewa Consultative Forum, a body of people which had always maintained that it is politically neutral, released a communiqué rejecting the outcome of the Presidential Contest of the PDP which produced President Goodluck Jonathan as the winner. The Forum observed that the emergence of Dr. Jonathan as PDP Presidential candidate is legally and morally wrong because it is a violation of that Party’s constitution which clearly requires that by the zoning and rotation formula, a northerner must be returned as candidate in the 2011 general elections. In this regard, and in accordance with its own self- proclaimed principled stand on fairness and the rule of law, the forum said it rejected the outcome of the Primaries. The Forum also condemned the total absence of internal democracy in most     of the major political parties, and the widespread evidence of manipulation, intimidation and other illegalities. The Forum warned that these practices will greatly undermine our democracy and make it almost impossible for otherwise credible people to participate in the electoral process in future. Finally, the Forum expressed its concerns over the current provocative sermons and preaching going on in some mosques and churches in parts of the North as well as the circulation of hate messages through texts and other electronic media.

          The Forum’s rejection of the outcome of the PDP Convention is belated, irrelevant and even more damaging to the interest of the North. If the Forum had any influence over political affairs in the North, or sufficient concern over its political fortunes, or the required levels of unity to act as a pressure group, it should have acted well before the PDP Convention, to warn PDP Governor’s not to support President Jonathan. To come out weeks after the North was humiliated by its own Governors to condemn a development over which the Forum itself has long been divided simply shows that the ACF has lost focus and relevance. If the ACF is attempting to play to the gallery, by tapping into the anger of many Northerners over the outcome of the PDP Presidential contest, the Northern public will not be fooled. It has been an open secret that the ACF has been divided over this issue itself. This will explain why it was unable to bring any pressure to bear on PDP Governors and Delegates to support Atiku Abubakar, and not President Jonathan. This will explain its long silence since the conclusion of the Convention. This will explain why it does not specifically condemn PDP Governors for voting against the principle of zoning and rotation. Instead, it condemns the outcome of a process which clearly was the making of Northerners, led by Governors.

          The ACF would have served the interest of the Northern if it had kept mute over the PDP Presidential contest. As it is, its belated statement has merely exposed the weaknesses and political poverty of the North. Now it is clear for all to see that the Northern political elite is more divided than ever. Those elites in the ACF are condemning the action of Northern Governors, who in reality are the architects of Jonathan victory over Atiku. All three political parties in the opposition, that is, the CPC, ACN and the ANPP are fielding Northern candidates, and all efforts so far to get them to yield ground to one or two of them have proved fruitless. This means that the North will most likely present three Presidential candidates against one from the South. Northerners have not seen any efforts on the part of the ACF to broker some type of understanding among these Northern contenders a development which will almost certainly result in the victory of President Jonathan.

          The tragedy for Northern Nigeria today is that it has no leaders with the political clout and prestige to protect its interest. All the self-appointed leaders who claim to speak or act on its behalf, from the Northern Political Elders Forum, to the ACF, and our Governors are merely small fish in small ponds. The North has never been more divided than it is today, and this will explain why those who use text messages to sow the seed of hatred and further divisions  among Northerners, which, like many others, the ACF also condemns, are succeeding. When President Jonathan’s spokesmen dismiss the ACF as irrelevant, they may very well be reflecting views which are widely held in many informed circles in the North. Certainly its belated condemnation of the PDP Presidential contest amounts to locking the gates after the thief has bolted.

          In these days when the political fortunes of the North are dwindling by the day, there may still be a place for the ACF. But the Forum needs to re-discover its mission, and resolve its internal contradictions to achieve focus, relevance and power in the manner Northern interests are projected and protected. Right now, the greatest challenge facing the North is to halt the frightening decline into conflict and anarchy which is being promoted by its own people and its detractors under the guise of religion and tribe. The historic strength of the North has always been its population and  its ability to provide a united political front on most issues. Now the population has been split along religious and ethnic lines, and its famed political unity has been battered by shortsighted opportunism by its leaders, and this is compounded by its economic underdevelopment. If the ACF wants to be important to the lives of the average Northerner, this is what should constitute its main concern.                                 

EXTENDING THE PERIOD FOR VOTER REGISTRATION

From all appearances, the National Assembly has resolved to amend the Electoral Act to give INEC additional time to register prospective voters. The two chambers adopted unprecedented measures to pass an amendment which reduces the period within which INEC must produce a voters register from 60 days before the elections to 30 days. This means, subject to the assent of Mr. President, that INEC will have an additional 30 days to conclude the registration, although it is by no means certain that INEC will accept and utilize all the additional period being made available to it. What is clear at this stage is that the National Assembly appears to have acted promptly to respond to the intense and widespread complaints over the pace of the Registration exercise which, on the basis of the present arrangement, will end at the end of the month. The INEC Chairman himself had told senate that with one additional week, about 65 million voters would be registered, going by current trends and statistics.

          This effort to respond to the national clamor for extension of the period for registration is commendable, although it has its own disadvantages. Clearly, INEC’s preparations, from its technology to the training of the staff, mostly National Youth Service Corps members, to the distribution of other materials has left much to be desired. For an exercise which was limited by law to last for two weeks, INEC should have been better prepared to deal with faulty or non-availability of machines, incompetent personal and poor security cover among many other problems which have been identified in the last 10 days of the exercise. In many instances, its responses to observe lapses such as the length of time it took to register people at the early stage of the exercise were hesitant and limited to crisis management. It is inexcusable for INEC to have underrated the overwhelming response of the public to the exercise, or that the first few days will expose many problems. To leave matters unresolved for days into the exercise when complaints are piling up also shows an unexpected level of incompetence and insensitivity. In the end, INEC is entirely responsible for all the problems identified so far, and this is all the more disappointment given the very high expectations of the Nigerian public and the huge amount spent on the exercise so far.

          It is beyond any doubt that without extension, many prospective voters would have been disenfranchised by INEC’s inadequate plans and shoddy arrangements. Now that it appears that an extension is in the horizon, the nation has a right to raise a number of issues. One major concern and a source  of the problem is the technology INEC is using. Even with improvements and adaptation, these machines are too slow, too inadequate or two fragile, because many of them break down too often. So an extension of time without a major effort to address these machines, their speed at registering people, and the widely-reported non-availability of printing ink  and paper must be addressed, otherwise the extension will have very little impact. A second major concern regarding the extension is the competence, availability, remuneration and morale of the registration officials. If the extension will have any benefit, INEC must pay very close attention to payment of allowances for the extra days paying personnel for monies they claim they used to buy ink, as well as monitor their moral, exhaustion and the potential to abuse the exercise under the influence of corrupt politicians.

          A huge amount of money must now be sourced to pay allowances and other logistic requirements for additional days; and any delays, or suspicion of delays to pay NYSC personnel will result in widespread disruption or even sabotage. A third issue that has to be devised is exactly how much time needs to be added to the two weeks. The longer this exercise stays in the field, the more it will be exposed to potential abuses and hijack by politicians and thugs. Many Nigerians are likely to relax the moment they hear that an extension has been given to the exercise, and win them rush in the last day or two to overwhelm the registration officials.

          Chaos is the last thing this exercise needs, and with everyday this exercise lasts, more and more of it weaknesses are becoming obvious to those who may want to hijack it and rig the elections through the abuse of the registration exercise. The fourth and perhaps the most important factor to consider is that a long extension will deprive INEC of the opportunity to utilize the technology to weed out multiple registrations. The process of scanning finger- prints to eliminate multiple registrations is vital to the quality of the voters register, and to go to the elections without putting all thumbprints through the process will amount to a huge waste of resources and the register that INEC will produce will have little value. INEC will also need time to display the register for claims and objections, and thereafter clean it up all in good time for the elections, as required by all. These are major considerations when discussing an extension of time for the exercise.

          The public which is concerned with being registered may not be worried by these factors mentioned above; but it should. If the April 2011 elections are going to be credible, free and fair, the starting point is the production of  a credible register which not only registers all Nigerians willing to register, but which also eliminates abuses and shortfalls of past attempts to produce credible registers.

          The best solution for all patriotic and concerned Nigerians who are yet to register is to go out and withstand whatever difficulties and inconveniences to register now, extension or no extension. An extension may only give you a very shim chance of being registered, and with a few more days to go, it is important that people do not sit back and wait for it. INEC needs to have the courage to State just how mush extension it needs and avoid a situation where it keeps the exercise in the field for such a period that it becomes vulnerable to abuse, or too expensive for the nation. Every Nigerian would hope that INEC has learnt enough lessons from this registration exercise to avoid repeating the same mistakes in the April 2011 elections.       

                                    

NORTHERN GOVERNORS’ CROCODILE TEARS

Seven out of the nineteen Northern Governors met in Yola on Thursday, 27^th of January, in continuation of their resolve to abandon the traditional Venue and Secretariat of the Northern Governors Forum, which has always been Kaduna. The other 12 Governors were represented by their Deputies and Secretaries to State Governments. In the history of the current Northern Governors Forum, this meeting is one with the least number of representation by substantive Governors, and it is evidence of a deep-seated crisis in the politics of Northern Nigeria.  

          The Communiqué released by the Governors lamented the divisions created in the North by the last PDP Primaries, and appealed to all politicians and religious leaders to stop using religion or ethnicity in the current dispensation. The Governors also set up a three-man committee to comprehensively articulate the challenges facing the North, and proffer recommendations. The Governors also agreed to convene a special meeting in early February to discuss security challenges facing the North.

          The meeting of the Northern Governors, on a day which coincided with a serious outbreak of violence in Tafawa Balewa, Bauchi State, and only two days after the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) condemned the outcome of the PDP Convention which produced President Goodluck Jonathan as flag bearer, is significant in terms of the current political fortunes of the North.  It is noteworthy that only seven out of the nineteen Governors attended this meeting, the first they are holding since the PDP Northern Governors substantially aided the victory of President Jonathan at Eagle Square. Many of these Governors went back to their States to face intense outpourings of hostility and resentment although, of course, most of them will defend their positions as being consistent with their responsibilities  as Governors and leaders of their Parties and People.

Most of the destructive campaigns being waged in Mosques, Churches and mobile phones through text messages were consequences of the bitter campaigns for PDP Presidential tickets, and its aftermath. Many PDP Northern Governors have been called disparaging names which questioned their commitment to their faith and the core interests of the North, which is most unfortunate. It is not clear how much effort the Governors in the North have put towards engaging the sources of these hate campaigns, and lower the tensions which have gripped the North since the Convention. It is obvious, going by events on the ground, however, that not much has been done by these Governors, perhaps because they are the problem, in the perception of many people, and cannot therefore be the solution. If Northern Governors are serious about tackling the serious threat to security in the region which these hateful sermons in Churches and Mosques pose, they should be more active in engaging the members of their Parties who feel disappointed by their conduct, as well as religious and community leaders who may be contributing to the escalating divisions between Christians and Muslims in the North. Releasing Communiqués at the end of their meetings will not do.

          The Governors also need to pay very close attention to the linkages between current political issues and security. Right under their noses, Jos is getting worse by the day. Bauchi state was burning even on the very day they met in Yola. There are daily killings in Maiduguri, and Gombe State is reportedly tense. Many other States in the North will be on the alert following events in Jos and Bauchi. As Chief Security Officers of their States, the Governors are well-placed to move quickly to douse the tension in the region. But they need to realize that their politics is a substantial impediment to building bridges across people, or reaching out to their colleagues in other States and prevailing on them to address major sources of conflict.

          The next few weeks will be very difficult for northern leaders, including Governors, in the manner they handle political and security issues. Political campaigns in an environment of intense insecurity and widespread violence will worsen the security situation. There are many flashpoints in the North, and governors are vital in terms of ensuring that these flashpoints do not lead to complete and widespread breakdown of law and order. Statements emanating from the Governors Forum, which has very little value in terms of the current political concerns of the North are not anywhere as effective as Governors assuming direct and effective control over security matters in their States. In fact, given the present low esteem which their Forum enjoys among key stakeholders in the Northern political environment, it may be more useful if the Northern Governors Forum abstains from speaking for or about the North.

The damage being done to the unity and security of the North by its elected and self-appointed leaders is creating a major source of concern to many citizens. Just two days ago, the ACF condemned the outcome of the PDP Convention, without however, having the courage to specifically mention that it was Northern PDP Governors who made President Jonathan’s victory possible. The attempts by the PDP elders under the name of Northern Political Elders Forum to create a consensus around Atiku Abubakar was humiliatingly defeated, largely by northerners themselves in full view of the nation and the world in Eagle Square Abuja. As at today, the disunity in the North is further compounded by having three candidates from the region who will contest against President Jonathan. One of these is a serving Governor. 

          Under present political circumstances, everyone knows that Governors, especially PDP Governors are powerful people. They are certainly powerful enough to decide who flies their Party’s Presidential Flag, and may even attempt to use their powers of incumbency to get re-elected. But the people who will decide their fate at the polls in April are also powerful. They will, ultimately, have the last say on the actions and dispositions of Northern Governors. But between now and April, every citizen should resist the pressures to become a casualty of the hateful sermons, messages and other provocations which are being engineered by people who want ordinary people to fight and kill themselves for their own ends. At all cost, every Nigerian must work for peace and security, and resist the temptation to turn these forthcoming elections into a religious or tribal war in which no one will be a victor.  Under free and fair elections, which are conducted under a peaceful atmosphere leaders who have betrayed the mandates of their people can be thrown out, and others who will be more sensitive to the needs of their people can be voted in. The Northern Governors have made their bed; so they should sleep in it.         

NORTHERN GOVERNORS’ CROCODILE TEARS

Seven out of the nineteen Northern Governors met in Yola on Thursday, 27^th of January, in continuation of their resolve to abandon the traditional Venue and Secretariat of the Northern Governors Forum, which has always been Kaduna. The other 12 Governors were represented by their Deputies and Secretaries to State Governments. In the history of the current Northern Governors Forum, this meeting is one with the least number of representation by substantive Governors, and it is evidence of a deep-seated crisis in the politics of Northern Nigeria.  

          The Communiqué released by the Governors lamented the divisions created in the North by the last PDP Primaries, and appealed to all politicians and religious leaders to stop using religion or ethnicity in the current dispensation. The Governors also set up a three-man committee to comprehensively articulate the challenges facing the North, and proffer recommendations. The Governors also agreed to convene a special meeting in early February to discuss security challenges facing the North.

          The meeting of the Northern Governors, on a day which coincided with a serious outbreak of violence in Tafawa Balewa, Bauchi State, and only two days after the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) condemned the outcome of the PDP Convention which produced President Goodluck Jonathan as flag bearer, is significant in terms of the current political fortunes of the North.  It is noteworthy that only seven out of the nineteen Governors attended this meeting, the first they are holding since the PDP Northern Governors substantially aided the victory of President Jonathan at Eagle Square. Many of these Governors went back to their States to face intense outpourings of hostility and resentment although, of course, most of them will defend their positions as being consistent with their responsibilities  as Governors and leaders of their Parties and People.

Most of the destructive campaigns being waged in Mosques, Churches and mobile phones through text messages were consequences of the bitter campaigns for PDP Presidential tickets, and its aftermath. Many PDP Northern Governors have been called disparaging names which questioned their commitment to their faith and the core interests of the North, which is most unfortunate. It is not clear how much effort the Governors in the North have put towards engaging the sources of these hate campaigns, and lower the tensions which have gripped the North since the Convention. It is obvious, going by events on the ground, however, that not much has been done by these Governors, perhaps because they are the problem, in the perception of many people, and cannot therefore be the solution. If Northern Governors are serious about tackling the serious threat to security in the region which these hateful sermons in Churches and Mosques pose, they should be more active in engaging the members of their Parties who feel disappointed by their conduct, as well as religious and community leaders who may be contributing to the escalating divisions between Christians and Muslims in the North. Releasing Communiqués at the end of their meetings will not do.

          The Governors also need to pay very close attention to the linkages between current political issues and security. Right under their noses, Jos is getting worse by the day. Bauchi state was burning even on the very day they met in Yola. There are daily killings in Maiduguri, and Gombe State is reportedly tense. Many other States in the North will be on the alert following events in Jos and Bauchi. As Chief Security Officers of their States, the Governors are well-placed to move quickly to douse the tension in the region. But they need to realize that their politics is a substantial impediment to building bridges across people, or reaching out to their colleagues in other States and prevailing on them to address major sources of conflict.

          The next few weeks will be very difficult for northern leaders, including Governors, in the manner they handle political and security issues. Political campaigns in an environment of intense insecurity and widespread violence will worsen the security situation. There are many flashpoints in the North, and governors are vital in terms of ensuring that these flashpoints do not lead to complete and widespread breakdown of law and order. Statements emanating from the Governors Forum, which has very little value in terms of the current political concerns of the North are not anywhere as effective as Governors assuming direct and effective control over security matters in their States. In fact, given the present low esteem which their Forum enjoys among key stakeholders in the Northern political environment, it may be more useful if the Northern Governors Forum abstains from speaking for or about the North.

The damage being done to the unity and security of the North by its elected and self-appointed leaders is creating a major source of concern to many citizens. Just two days ago, the ACF condemned the outcome of the PDP Convention, without however, having the courage to specifically mention that it was Northern PDP Governors who made President Jonathan’s victory possible. The attempts by the PDP elders under the name of Northern Political Elders Forum to create a consensus around Atiku Abubakar was humiliatingly defeated, largely by northerners themselves in full view of the nation and the world in Eagle Square Abuja. As at today, the disunity in the North is further compounded by having three candidates from the region who will contest against President Jonathan. One of these is a serving Governor. 

          Under present political circumstances, everyone knows that Governors, especially PDP Governors are powerful people. They are certainly powerful enough to decide who flies their Party’s Presidential Flag, and may even attempt to use their powers of incumbency to get re-elected. But the people who will decide their fate at the polls in April are also powerful. They will, ultimately, have the last say on the actions and dispositions of Northern Governors. But between now and April, every citizen should resist the pressures to become a casualty of the hateful sermons, messages and other provocations which are being engineered by people who want ordinary people to fight and kill themselves for their own ends. At all cost, every Nigerian must work for peace and security, and resist the temptation to turn these forthcoming elections into a religious or tribal war in which no one will be a victor.  Under free and fair elections, which are conducted under a peaceful atmosphere leaders who have betrayed the mandates of their people can be thrown out, and others who will be more sensitive to the needs of their people can be voted in. The Northern Governors have made their bed; so they should sleep in it.         

THE DESCENT TO ANARCHY

In the last four days, the security situation in the country has deteriorated to a point where it is legitimate to ask whether our governments have lost control over the means to protect our lives and property anymore. Last week Thursday, a major conflict flared up in Tafawa Balewa, Bauchi State, with a distinctly religious character. Lives were lost, places of worship and houses were destroyed, and the community now lives in fear of another flare-up, in spite of the arrests made. On Friday last week, the ANPP Gubernatorial Candidate in Borno State and six others were shot in public and in broad daylight, and, as has now become familiar with similar killings in Maiduguri, the murderers merely drove or rode away, and are still at large. The following day, Jos flared up again, this time around a major confrontation between Students and the community and security agents who were attempting to prevent another round of bloodbath in this beleaguered City. Many people were shot, and many places of worship as well as businesses  and homes were burnt. The people of Jos have fought one more battle, and will fight again, since the bitterness and the fighters on both sides are still alive and have merely retreated into their communities.

          Slowly but surely, the circle of widespread violence with heavy political and religious undertones is spreading in many parts of the North. Old flashpoints such as Tafawa Balewa are merging with the dangerous fires which have burned in Jos for more than two years, as well as the creeping insurgency on two wheels which has made Maiduguri a most dangerous place to live in, especially for soldiers, policemen and politicians from a particular political party. Now bitter conflicts around disagreements over Party Primaries or conflicts between political parties will provide additional fuel for these crises. By the end of this month, when all Political Parties would be required to submit the list of their candidates to INEC, the nation will witness a major upsurge in restiveness among the public, when public anger at some of the nominated candidates will be expressed in different forms. As it stands now, the law allows political parties to forward any candidate they choose, and prevents INEC from rejecting such candidates on any grounds. Many people will be both surprised and angry at the candidate who will be forwarded by the major political parties, and although they will have the opportunity to exercise their rights to reject them at the polls, many will choose a violent option to express their anger; and they will be well-supported and funded by politicians who have lost out, and who will also throw in an army of thugs into these conflicts.

          There is no doubt that politics has a major influence over the escalating violence in many parts of the North. The massive defections of key PDP people in Plateau State into other Parties will weaken the already ineffective control of Governor Jang over the security and administration of Plateau State. The situation in Jos and the whole Plateau State will only get worse, unless the Federal Government declares a State of Emergency in that State. It is also beyond any doubt that the so-called Boko Haram people in Maiduguri are settling scores with the Governor and Government of the ANPP and security agents in Borno State. The failure of the Federal and State Governments and the security agents to arrest these guerillas on two wheels from operating almost at will, will also suggest that a drastic step needs to be taken in that State. It may also be necessary to consider the imposition of a State of Emergency in Borno State, particularly in view of the fact that the State Government appears to be the prime target of this faceless group that is only known as Boko Haram, but obviously has clear political goals in mind. Unless decisive steps are taken in the next few days to deal with the deteriorating security situations in Plateau and Borno State, places like Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna and Kano will live on dangerously-high tensions, and it will only take a small trigger, such as a fight over a snooker table, to start major conflicts. Political competition will worsen the situation, and many politicians may seek to achieve their own goals under the cover of existing conflicts.

          The prospects that the April 2011 elections will be conducted under a secure atmosphere are very poor. President Jonathan must go beyond routine condemnation of bombings, killings, riots and a creeping sense of national insecurity, and act with courage and firmness to deal with this dangerous decline with anarchy. If Governors are the problem, either directly because they cannot handle the security situation in their State, or because they represent major targets of conflicts, and cannot therefore isolate their office from these conflicts, there are legally-prescribed procedures for dealing with them. Major breaches of security that go unpunished merely encourage others to cause more breaches. Prolonged assault on the capacity of governments to protect lives and property erodes their legitimacy in the eyes of citizens, and encourages people to assume responsibilities for their own security and safety. This is the best recipe for chaos and anarchy.

          The vast majority of Nigerians want to live in peace. They are looking forward to the April elections when they believe they can make a difference. They are terrified that the creeping violence in some parts of the country may reach and affect them. They need firm and decisive assurances that the Federal and state Governments will protect them from death in the hands of rampaging mobs or assassins. Those with responsibility to secure peace and security in our nation need to sit up and do their jobs before the whole nation is engulfed in an irreversible conflagration.