In the last four days, the security situation in the country has deteriorated to a point where it is legitimate to ask whether our governments have lost control over the means to protect our lives and property anymore. Last week Thursday, a major conflict flared up in Tafawa Balewa, Bauchi State, with a distinctly religious character. Lives were lost, places of worship and houses were destroyed, and the community now lives in fear of another flare-up, in spite of the arrests made. On Friday last week, the ANPP Gubernatorial Candidate in Borno State and six others were shot in public and in broad daylight, and, as has now become familiar with similar killings in Maiduguri, the murderers merely drove or rode away, and are still at large. The following day, Jos flared up again, this time around a major confrontation between Students and the community and security agents who were attempting to prevent another round of bloodbath in this beleaguered City. Many people were shot, and many places of worship as well as businesses and homes were burnt. The people of Jos have fought one more battle, and will fight again, since the bitterness and the fighters on both sides are still alive and have merely retreated into their communities.
Slowly but surely, the circle of widespread violence with heavy political and religious undertones is spreading in many parts of the North. Old flashpoints such as Tafawa Balewa are merging with the dangerous fires which have burned in Jos for more than two years, as well as the creeping insurgency on two wheels which has made Maiduguri a most dangerous place to live in, especially for soldiers, policemen and politicians from a particular political party. Now bitter conflicts around disagreements over Party Primaries or conflicts between political parties will provide additional fuel for these crises. By the end of this month, when all Political Parties would be required to submit the list of their candidates to INEC, the nation will witness a major upsurge in restiveness among the public, when public anger at some of the nominated candidates will be expressed in different forms. As it stands now, the law allows political parties to forward any candidate they choose, and prevents INEC from rejecting such candidates on any grounds. Many people will be both surprised and angry at the candidate who will be forwarded by the major political parties, and although they will have the opportunity to exercise their rights to reject them at the polls, many will choose a violent option to express their anger; and they will be well-supported and funded by politicians who have lost out, and who will also throw in an army of thugs into these conflicts.
There is no doubt that politics has a major influence over the escalating violence in many parts of the North. The massive defections of key PDP people in Plateau State into other Parties will weaken the already ineffective control of Governor Jang over the security and administration of Plateau State. The situation in Jos and the whole Plateau State will only get worse, unless the Federal Government declares a State of Emergency in that State. It is also beyond any doubt that the so-called Boko Haram people in Maiduguri are settling scores with the Governor and Government of the ANPP and security agents in Borno State. The failure of the Federal and State Governments and the security agents to arrest these guerillas on two wheels from operating almost at will, will also suggest that a drastic step needs to be taken in that State. It may also be necessary to consider the imposition of a State of Emergency in Borno State, particularly in view of the fact that the State Government appears to be the prime target of this faceless group that is only known as Boko Haram, but obviously has clear political goals in mind. Unless decisive steps are taken in the next few days to deal with the deteriorating security situations in Plateau and Borno State, places like Bauchi, Gombe, Kaduna and Kano will live on dangerously-high tensions, and it will only take a small trigger, such as a fight over a snooker table, to start major conflicts. Political competition will worsen the situation, and many politicians may seek to achieve their own goals under the cover of existing conflicts.
The prospects that the April 2011 elections will be conducted under a secure atmosphere are very poor. President Jonathan must go beyond routine condemnation of bombings, killings, riots and a creeping sense of national insecurity, and act with courage and firmness to deal with this dangerous decline with anarchy. If Governors are the problem, either directly because they cannot handle the security situation in their State, or because they represent major targets of conflicts, and cannot therefore isolate their office from these conflicts, there are legally-prescribed procedures for dealing with them. Major breaches of security that go unpunished merely encourage others to cause more breaches. Prolonged assault on the capacity of governments to protect lives and property erodes their legitimacy in the eyes of citizens, and encourages people to assume responsibilities for their own security and safety. This is the best recipe for chaos and anarchy.
The vast majority of Nigerians want to live in peace. They are looking forward to the April elections when they believe they can make a difference. They are terrified that the creeping violence in some parts of the country may reach and affect them. They need firm and decisive assurances that the Federal and state Governments will protect them from death in the hands of rampaging mobs or assassins. Those with responsibility to secure peace and security in our nation need to sit up and do their jobs before the whole nation is engulfed in an irreversible conflagration.
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