A stranger to recent political events in Nigerian politics would have been both curious and bemused to see President Jonathan on our television screens stand alone and answer questions in what is supposed to be a debate with his fellow candidates for the presidency of Nigeria. Even for those who have followed the maneuverings and the arguments around the presidential debates would have some strong opinions either in favor of the President’s solo performance, or against it. When the history of Nigerian politics is written, this curious phenomenon will be recorded as a footnote in the chapter which deals with the attitudes and strategies of people who plan to lead our nation.
Our earlier comments on the presidential debates have drawn attention to the fact that quite possibly, less than 1% of the voting public would have watched these debates. The other 99% either have no interest; or no electricity; or no television sets; or are too busy earning their daily bread to bother to listen to promises from people who have either failed the nation, or have no capacity to lead Nigeria effectively towards growth and development. Those who did listen or watched will find it difficult to distinguish between the candidates, largely because those who participated in the debates boycotted by President Jonathan and his deputy have had no experience in steering the ship of the Nigerian State. While they had visions, plans and programmes which may transform Nigeria, they had no chance to bounce them against a President whose Party has been in office and for the past 12 years, and is responsible for the current state of the Nigerian economy and society.
If the debate involving other contestants and their running mates, except the PDP’s, was a tame affair, the solo appearance of President Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo had even less value. Events which were to give Nigerians a chance to measure candidates against each other were turned into circuses, and while the candidates of the ACN, ANPP and CPC, among others had a chance to sell themselves, the PDP lost much ground for appearing to shun the challenge either for fear of looking worse than others, or because it is contemptuous of public and voter opinion. The President’s men may think that they secured for him a few hours of unchallenged and uninterrupted monopoly of the viewing audience by creating for him his own version of the debate, but they only succeeded in creating a damaging public relations outing for him. His rivals paid him back with his own coins by boycotting a debate of his own choosing, and, in addition, successfully made the argument that because the kitchen was too hot for the President and Vice President, they built their own kitchens where they determined the temperature. A confident President should engage his opposition, or have good reasons not to do so at all. If he wanted airtime to campaign as a PDP candidate, he should have sought for, and paid for one.
These debates have had little effect on the manner Nigerians will determine who becomes President. They are targeted at an elite, which is not easily persuaded by a televised debate in their selection of candidates. The overwhelming majority of those who will vote have not even seen or heard of the debates. But the debates do say something about the psychology of the Parties, particularly the ruling party. The impression being created is that the PDP is on the defensive in this election on all fronts, a position it has not been in since 1999. In the far north, there are large pockets of intense resentment against it, not just because of the large following of the CPC and, to a lesser extent ACN and ANPP, but also because of the residual anger over the issue of zoning and rotation. In the South-West, it is fighting for its life against the twin assaults of a resurgent ACN and Labor Party. In the Middle Belt, the CPC and ACN are threatening to uproot it substantially as the dominant party. In the South South, where one would expect a solid base for the PDP, it is being challenged by rival parties in such a manner that it is clearly unsure of its chances at all stages and levels of the elections. In the South East, where there are major dissentions among PDP chieftains, the PDP is also not showing much confidence.
The President appears to have acknowledged the shaky grounds on which the PDP is entering the contest, and this explains why he has recently targeted religious and traditional rulers, labor and organized groups in closed door meetings. PDP Governors have also all gone back to their drawing boards, and unimaginable quantities of money are being spent to plug loopholes in the PDP campaign strategy.
Still, the opposition will be wrong to write off the PDP. This is a party with the biggest spread and the largest war chest. It has people vastly experienced in the politics of electoral victory currently going over every fine detail to see how the party’s weaknesses can be turned into its strength. It has the largest number of people who stand to lose the most if the Party fails to win the Presidency and retain or gain more Governorship slots. There are many people in the PDP who cannot imagine Nigeria under a different Party’s leadership, and when push comes to shove, they will pitch in to salvage its fortunes.
The reality today is that the political space is much wider, and a few major political parties have a fighting chance of capturing substantial chunks of the political offices at stake. But all these depend on INEC and other agencies who will work with it to ensure that the votes of all Nigerians are counted well, and in the end, they will count in terms of determining who leads us. Millions of Nigerians, from those who suffered for days to register as voters; to those who campaigned for parties and candidates; to officials who trained to officiate during elections, to politicians who spent billions in campaign funds, have all invested heavily to see that these elections as free, fair and credible. Billions of our funds have been given to INEC and security agencies to make sure that materials are available; staff are recruited and trained; and security is adequate. All these investments must not be wasted by having an election which will be widely disputed. All Nigerians want is that those who are declared winners will be those who actually won. If this is done, no political party will complain, or urge its supporters to reject the result.
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