ELECTION TRIBUNAL VERDICT: WILL JONATHAN WORK NOW?

          The Presidential Election Petition Tribunal on Tuesday 1^st of November, 2011 in Abuja upheld the election of President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo in the April 2011 general elections. The tribunal dismissed the petition of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), saying that the President and his deputy were elected in accordance with the Electoral Act 2010. The President described the judgment as a triumph for democracy and an affirmation of the sovereignty of the Nigerian people. His spokesman, Mr. Reuben Abati said the President hopes that General Buhari and the CPC will accept the decision of the tribunal, put the past behind them and support his administration’s efforts to transform the nation. He said that Jonathan’s administration is resolved to continue to provide good governance anchored on the strong foundations of honesty, transparency, hard work and fairness to all. But the national chairman of the CPC says the party will appeal the judgment.  Former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Malam Nasir El-Rufai was reported as saying that the CPC will appeal not because it thinks it can win, but because it wants posterity to judge.

          There is a long way to go before this case will be finally disposed. If the past and current trends are anything to go by, the higher levels of the judiciary are likely to uphold the verdict of the election tribunal. President Jonathan and the PDP would prefer that the CPC doesn’t go the whole hog in the appeal process, but that will be an unproductive wishful thinking. They will say that they need the rest of their term to concentrate on governance and delivering service to Nigerians; and that further litigation will merely divert its attention from executing its mandate. They will appeal to Nigerians to prevail on the CPC to accept defeat, and to respect the verdict of Nigerians. They will do all these because in Nigeria, elected people tend to blame the exercise of the right of the opposition to challenge their defeat in court for not doing their jobs as they should. Indeed, so serious is the assumption that prolonged litigation diverts attention and resources from governance; and that it often allows the wrong people to govern for unacceptable length of time, that the Justice Uwais Panel on Electoral Reform proposed the disposal of all cases before elected people are sworn in. It is now history, of course, that this proposal along with most of the other good recommendations were thrown out by the “YarAdua/Jonathan administration.      

          The lack of impact, resolve and vision of President Jonathan’s administration since it was inaugurated five months ago will be difficult to explain away with the excuse that it was facing judicial challenge over its victory. Given the circumstances of its assumption of office and the background of the President, most Nigerians will be disappointed by the record of President Jonathan so far. Here you have a former Vice President who assumed the office of the President with tremendous sympathy and goodwill, as well as a hands-on experience of running the nation. Yet when he is handed a fresh mandate all of his own, the President disappeared behind slogans, spokesmen and security checkpoints. This is a Presidency which emerged from the most divisive and bitter campaign, complete with the resurgence of the most primitive sentiments Nigerians thought they had long left behind; and a bloody uprising in parts of the country which still has many victims. Yet rather than serve as an impetus to work towards building bridges and neutralising his enemies and opponents, the President appears today as shell-shocked over the events of April and May 2011 as he was when they occurred. Nigerians conducted an election which substantially polarised the nation along dangerous faultiness, but we appear to have elected a leadership which has drawn a very narrow safety zone to operate from. So the causes and the consequences of the crisis are still very much part of nation; and like every ailment, it will grow and expand with neglect.

          The Lemu Panel has submitted its report, but it is doubtful if those issues it chose to make public will be tackled with the seriousness and resolve needed to deal with them. Poverty and pervasive injustice have alienated a substantial proportion of Nigerians from the democratic process.  A panel of inquiry may remind the President that they are the reasons why people yearn for radical change; but he should know that already, having been a deputy Governor, and a Governor from a region where frustration over neglect and injustice led to widespread and endemic violence; and where relative peace has been achieved only at great cost. Five months is more than enough time for an administration born amidst violence, fear and bitterness to have set bold plans to tackle poverty and hopelessness. Nigerians will not accept the excuse that the challenge of the CPC is responsible for the absence of any serious initiative or programme to reduce latent hostility from the young and the poor; or the yawning gaps which are appearing in relations between ethnic and religious groups; or the distances between government and citizens.

          In the last five months, the security of Nigerians has been more challenged than perhaps any other time. President Jonathan saw through the rest of the term of the late Umaru ‘YarAdua, whose directive to destroy the Yusufiyya movement may have had the unfortunate effect of radicalizing it even more. Most people would have expected that President Jonathan would borrow a leaf from the late ‘YarAdua’s brave decision to set in motion a battery of initiatives to deal with the criminality and militancy in the Niger Delta, which included the hugely expensive Amnesty Programme. Nigerians had hoped that President Jonathan will explore and leverage all avenues and strategies to deal with the threat of the Yusufiyya movement, and not just throw more of the military to Borno State and the erect Closed Circuit Televisions in Abuja. Today, every Nigerian lives in fear of this group, and the bombs that went off at the Police Headquarters in Abuja, the United Nations Building and many other places are still going off in Maiduguri and other towns. You only need to say Boko Haram, and everyone starts to panic from Maiduguri to Calabar. President Jonathan’s administration cannot blame the litigation over his victory for this spreading insecurity.

          In the week before the verdict of the election tribunal, State Governors were threatening to sue President Jonathan over the Sovereign Wealth Fund. The meeting over the allocation from the Federal Account broke up because States say federal government is deducting too much of their funds illegally. The Labor movement and sundry opinion leaders were threatening fire and brimstone over the plans to remove the oil subsidy. Salaries have not been paid in many federal ministries. States are laying off staff just to be able to afford the N18, 000 minimum wage. Northern Muslims are being told by Niger Delta communities to leave, and some are reported to be leaving.

          Even the best friends of President Jonathan will not say that Nigeria today is safer and better-off economically than it was in May this year. The challenge by the CPC at the election tribunal cannot be used as an excuse to explain this. So what will the nation look like by 29^th of May next year? Are there grand plans and programmes and ideas to move this nation beyond grief and security checkpoints? If they exist, it will be useful if the President steps out and says so.