Who has the President’s back?

Histories are more full of examples of the fidelity of dogs than of friends. 

                         Alexander Pope.

 

The 2016 budget proposals submitted by President Buhari is a study is liberal optimism. In many ways, it is like all budget proposals: full of hopes and projections, signifying a stab at a future that could be anything from favourable to outrightly hostile. How you manage the difference depends a lot on the degree to which you prepare to deal with shortfalls and absorb shocks. Favorable contexts which bear out assumptions and projections are good, but they also pose their own challenges, chief among which are the propensity to indulge in luxuries and planning badly for the next year. The 2016 budget has many novel and ambitious elements, which is as a first budget from an administration that promises change in basic philosophy and institutional framework for governance should have.

 

If President Buhari substantially implements a N6.08 trillion budget he would have achieved a rare feat of triggering expansion and growth in a context which is decidedly hostile to it. True, it will have a deficit of N2.22 trillion, a fact that will not escape notice of people who will worry over the possibility that government is building its political capital by depleting a future which is not it's to tinker with. This will not bother more than the opposition and professional worriers if government does radically improve non-oil revenues which it projects at N1.45 trillion. Its plan to spend N1.8 trillion on capital projects, and N2.65 trillion on recurrent expenditure should also come as relief to those who worried that President Buhari may be tempted to buy into the reckless rhetoric which pushed for deep cuts on recurrent expenditure in one fell swoop.

 

The devil in the budget is located in some of the key assumptions. Oil benchmark of $38 per barrel with projected output of 2.2m barrels per day will invite many to knock it down. While the benchmark is unlikely to radically rise above the $38, it could conceivably go down to as low as $30, but is most likely to hover around the $30 - $35 band. The projected 2.2 barrels per day will be contingent on severe restrictions in oil theft and an aggressive pursuit of markets. Significantly, the President is sticking to fancy language to insist that subsidy on imported  petroleum will remain to preserve a price of N87 per litre. The commitment to sustain the fiction of N87 per litre will pose a major problem for President Buhari. His apology to Nigerians over long petrol queues will touch a nation long used to excuses and indifference. But his apology will not register the same sympathy in a few months’ time if the queues persist, and the pressures to acknowledge that he has missed a great opportunity to do what is both necessary and feasible begin to mount. The social welfare programmes promised in the run-up to the elections appear to be ready to be rolled out next year. The conditional cash handouts to the poor, school feeding programme, massive employment of teachers from the scandalous pool of unemployed graduates  will require available funds and very careful management so that they do not create crises of expectations and large pools of disappointment.

 

The 2016 budget proposals represent the first major step of the APC/Buhari administration towards changing the direction of governance in Nigeria. Until now, the nation had tolerated an administration that had set for itself three basic targets: to roll back the Boko Haram insurgency’s grip on our lives; to blow the whistle on corruption and outright pillage of our resources; and conclude a long-delayed process of selecting a key management component in Ministers. Now the difficult job of governing in a most economically-challenging environment is about to commence. If he had made the right preparations and right choices, President Buhari will soon find out. Chances are that he is likely to find out that delivering on promises is almost as difficult as winning elections he tried three times earlier to win. No President had stood out as the sole issue in success or failure than Buhari, because no President has been elected as much on his personal character and integrity as Buhari. Similarly, no President needs as much help and support as Buhari, because his character and integrity alone will not move the mountains he needs to move.The Presidency is a source of tremendous power, and a very lonesome place when things do not go well.

 

So who has got the President’s back, as he forges forwards to lay the foundations of responsible and accountable government? Does he have the solid support of major political 'stakeholders,' those illusive Nigerian politicians who will be there when patronage is being distributed, and go missing when pots dry up, or accolades become rare? The fight against corruption will involve a lot more than retrieval of stolen funds, and successful prosecution of corrupt people. It will involve reinforcing systems and processes which prevent theft and subversion of public interest in the conduct of government affairs. How many of the key stakeholders are willing to submit to a transparent and honest procurement process and open government where loyalty is not rewarded with stupendous sources of additional wealth? How many will live with lean and hard times that will face Nigerians, and how many will walk away and build spare structures in anticipation that public opinion and mood will punish an administration which promised much and delivered little? How deep is their loyalty to Buhari the President, as opposed to Buhari the candidate? How much flak are they willing to take for a leader with a registered difficulty in shifting positions?

 

How many of the President’s management team share his basic philosophy and are willing to live a comparatively spartan existence in return for a future that will remember them for changing the nature of the relationship between public office and social standing? How quickly and effectively will his ministers, advisers and principal officers fall in line and shield him from avoidable heat and impatience of Nigerians? What role, if any, will the Party play in governance? Will it be treated as a liability while it rots in crises, or are there plans and the political will re-engineer it to cheer-lead the government and keep the PDP and the fight back by corruption at a fairly-ineffective level? 

 

Where will APC governors stand when the going gets tough as the President warns it will? Will they align philosophy, policies and programmes to reinforce Buhari, or utilize the pronounced space President Buhari plans to create between his government and theirs’ to pursue their own paths, including preparing new personal political agenda? Will the shivering senators waiting for the anti-corruption war to reach them close ranks to frustrate the President, and use their considerable powers to protect friends and associates from the Buhari onslaught? Is the judiciary a friend or foe? How much sympathy does he have from the media?

 

Having someone’s back means being unconditionally loyal. Buhari will soon find out if he has the support he needs to fight insecurity, poverty and corruption, or he is basically alone. He says he will make some tough decisions in 2016. One of them should be to look behind him and engineer the type of loyalty he can count on in this battle to make a difference.