A blanket over Maryam

A crime eats its own child.

(African Proverb).

        Last week, Maryam acquired a new warm blanket. Actually, her whole camp received new blankets, so the harmattan winds have been a lot more tolerable. Now the search for firewood by virtually everyone in the camp is not as desperate, and this is a relief because venturing further away from the camp where firewood is more easily available has become harzadous. A few more of the elderly in the camp have also been moved into new tents, so Maryam and a few of the females have taken up their former locations near the center of the camp. The camp on the whole is more comfortable, but no one is sure if it will get better or worse.

Maryam is about 14 years old. Too old to be a child and too young to be a woman, she has gone through experiences that have made it impossible to cry anymore. Virtually everyone who has heard her story from when her life as a member of a family in a small village in Adamawa State was ended, has been amazed by the calmness with which she reeled out the chronicle of the tragedy which her life has become.

This is her third camp, where she is some sort of a leader although some of the younger females are older than she is. When Boko Haram first attacked her village, they killed her father and elder brother and abducted her brother’s new wife and her elder sister who was nursing a baby. The baby was left behind. Her mother ran away with some women. She has not seen any of them since. The insurgents stayed in the village for two months, and then relocated with Maryam and about fifty young females and men to another of their strongholds. This was where Maryam was given out by the Amir as ‘bride’ to an insurgent. Three days after her ‘marriage’, her husband was killed in an encounter with Nigerian soldiers who subsequently occupied the village. The soldiers rounded up scores of young men and women suspected to have had links with Boko Haram. Maryam’s ‘marriage’ to a dead insurgent counted heavily against her. She was detained, tortured and abused by soldiers for months as a suspected informant and member of Boko Haram. In her fourth week of detention, Boko Haram captured the village, and its population once again came under a lowly but brutal Amir. He immediately put scores of young men to the sword, with the whole village watching, and then shared out young women, including Maryam, to fighters. Maryam’s second ‘husband’ helped her escape from the village when news filtered in that Nigerian soldiers were approaching. She was pregnant.

For six days, Maryam walked through the bush, feeding from the little supply her 'husband' gave her. Three days after her escape, she lost the pregnancy. She was rescued by some soldiers who took her to a village clearing that will be her first camp or, more accurately, gathering. It was an open space near a burnt-out village, with no water, food or shelter. Almost the entire population was made up of old men, women and children. Even husbands vouched for by wives and children were isolated or detained by soldiers. In the night, soldiers disappeared from the camp. No one was allowed to light fires in the night because it will attract Boko Haram.  The camp became Maryam’s prison. To leave was too dangerous, and staying exposed her to the elements, Boko Haram fighters or soldiers who worked them to the bones cooking or clearing. Young girls spoke in hushed tones about rape and other abuses in the night.

The rains made it impossible to continue to live in the gathering. Soldiers made contact with relief officials, and the entire gathering was moved in batches to an enclosure nearer a town. This was the first administered camp, with protection provided by a makeshift fence, vigilante and a military encampment nearby. Feeding was poor, with one meal a day for most people, and when it rained for long periods, there was no cooked food. For the first time since she left her own village, she was seen by a doctor who was only interested in examining her for wounds. He was a man. She kept her stories to herself.

Maryam matured in this camp. She assumed additional responsibilities looking after younger children, cooking and sharing food, and working with the elderly men to keep an eye on young men with predatory sexual tendencies. She stopped asking new arrivals of her mother and relations. She became stronger with the thought that she was entirely on her own.

In the last four months, traffic of help has improved in the camp. Feeding is better, but still poor. Medical facilities are bare, and almost on a daily basis, women deliver babies without medical help. The camp is becoming more crowded, in spite of the fact that people move out to stay in homes of relations or relocate to rebuild lives in liberated areas. There is a lot of suspicion that new arrivals are Boko Haram spies or defectors. There are still cases of sexual violence, and many females have learnt how to get more or better rations for themselves and their children from officials and guards.

Maryam’s new blanket came in a consignment donated by some foreigners. The camp also received tents, medical facilities and quantities of food. Before the donors arrived, the camp was kept busy clearing itself, digging new latrines and water storage facilities. There have been arguments and fights among the men and younger women over exposing cheating Nigerian officials, in the event that opportunities presented themselves. Fear of being ejected or labelled Boko Haram informants has kept most inmates quiet.

There is much talk of people moving out to their liberated villages to start a rebuilding process in the midsts of fear and uncertainties. Maryam, however, is not part of these discussions. She has nowhere to go. She is suspended in time and space, a suspect in some circles, and a victim in many others.

Maryam is real. She is the nation’s open wound which festers from erratic attention and serial abuse. It feeds off the on-going battle between the Nigerian state and an insurgency that has many faces. It does not heal with the success of the military against Boko Haram, because it has taken on a life of its own. It is a gaping hole that attracts attention from caring governments with limited resources, and a global community with heavy hearts, deep pockets and enlarged concerns over corruption and abuse in the management of Internally Displaced Persons. Two million people is a large number to cater for. Yet, they have to be catered for, if the war against Boko Haram is to be won. Unless towns and villages are rebuilt, basic infrastructure rehabilitated, schools reopened, policing restored, families reunited and protected, farms ploughed, children play freely in the open and Maryam's hope for a better life is restored, Boko Haram will claim victory against the Nigerian state. It is a victory it does not deserve.

2016: A watch list

        Like a chameleon, one eye on the future, one eye on the past.

Malagasy proverb.

          This year will define the basic character of the administration of President Buhari and highlight opportunities and limitations that will challenge the administration and the nation. In this first, full working year of President Buhari, a number of major issues should be kept under watch.

1.      The economy

The Nigerian economy will be severely challenged in 2016. The dramatic fall in crude prices and uncertainties around attracting increased foreign investment will slow down growth. Plugging major leakages in revenue collection could improve available funds, but institutions involved in raising revenues need to be strengthened and their capacities improved. The pro-poor provisions in the 2016 budget are ambitious and bold, but their successful implementation will be predicated on quality conceptualization, planning and sustainability. Major fiscal and monetary policy decisions will represent areas of intense interest, as all social segments will feel the effects of an economy that will go through a difficult period. APC and PDP legislators will test their strengths on budget debates, and the legislature as a whole may fight against some of its provisions which affect them

2.      Security

The Boko Haram insurgency is damaged, but not crippled to a point where it will not continue to threaten populations. There are questions about the credibility of the military’s successes, principally because of conflicting narratives over the presence of insurgents in Sambisa forest, in towns and villages as well as cells in many areas that can strike with guns or suicide bombs. The captive Chibok girls will continue to haunt the fight against Boko Haram, and managing two million IDPs will be a major challenge for the administration.

The investigation of former militant leaders will trigger a resurgence of violent activity in the Niger Delta. Increased military presence in the area will pitch the militants and the military in direct confrontations under an administration determined to stamp its authority against violence. The Biafra agitation will be tested in terms of its support and capacity to take on the Nigerian state, with the on-going trials of its leaders. The Shiite movement in the North will continue to be a source of stress and tension, and the manner the state handles the detention and trial of its leader will be a major factor in determining future Shiite – government relations. Managing national security in the context of increasingly limited resources will be a major problem for the administration.

 3.     Fighting corruption

The administration enjoys popular support in its fight against corruption. Spectacular revelations about massive theft of public funds in many sectors of the economy suggest that many high profile individuals, including some who are pillars of the ruling party investigated and prosecuted. There are concerns over the degree to which the legislature will support the President in this ever-expanding campaign, with many legislators likely to be fingered, or have their cases re-opened. There are also legitimate concerns regarding the integrity and capacity of the judiciary to process possibly hundreds of cases. The possibility of the state being stonewalled by a weak and compromised judiciary and powerful interests with considerable mileage in avoiding penalties is real. Nigerians  will be frustrated at the pace of investigations and trials, and there is a genuine possibility that too much of the administration’s time and energy will be devoted to pursuing corruption cases at the expense of imaginative and productive policies that should  rebuild the economy and strengthen institutions of governance.

4.      Public institutions                 

The Buhari administration inherited weak and compromised public institutions that are vital to re-engineering the economy, plugging leakages and reducing corruption. It will need to radically improve basic policing institutions to turn the tide against crime and internal security challenges. The public service has been very badly damaged by the previous administration, and it will need an extensive review of its basic philosophy, operations and leadership to bring it up to the required level as the key institution in protecting public interest and serving as  the foundation of good governance.

5.     Governance and politics

The real character of the All progressives Congress will begin to show as the spoils of victory are distributed and the real business of running the country becomes the major focus. Key elements in the APC, such as the character and persona of President Buhari, the often-conflicting interests of very powerful office-holders who hold varied opinions over the real meaning of the ‘change’ mantra, the chieftains from parties who led and submitted to the merger, and Nigerians who expect dramatic and quality changes in the conditions of their lives will clash or reinforce each other this year. The manner President Buhari relates with the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be an important factor in the degree to which he succeeds in pushing through critical legislation, or is frustrated in the fight against corruption.

Disgruntled party chieftains can be ignored only up to a point. The lessons from the damage done to the defeated PDP by its members who defected with much of its assets will need to be carefully read and understood. Intra-party disputes will become more pronounced, and will be made worse unless the party is made strong and relevant by all political office holders at all levels. The administration will need to pay close attention to managing regional and religious threats, and its disposition to elites with capacities for mischief or improving popular support will be tested. Ambitious politicians with an eye on 2019 could divert attention and energy from creating synergy in policies and programmes at all levels of government.  

6.      People Democratic Party (PDP)

The PDP is unlikely to recover from its many and varied challenges any time soon. Its internal schisms and the large numbers of its present and former leaders who are being mentioned in scams of all types will deplete its capacity to re-invent itself. It is unlikely to benefit from disputes within APC, or provide an effective opposition outside the legislature. Nonetheless, its members in the National Assembly are a vital asset, and they could exploit intra-APC disputes to damage the administration’s plans and programmes.

7.      President Jonathan

The noose is increasingly tightening around President Jonathan's neck, with more and more revelations about scams and outright thefts that took place under his watch. It is a matter of time before his personal role and others, such as Dr Okonjo-Iweala, Allison-Maduekwe and other key ministers and officials are more closely scrutinized. President Buhari seems bent on extending the frontiers of enquiry into the management and abuse of public funds and other assets. It is unlikely that President Jonathan and former senior ministers will evade complicity in some of them. President Buhari may have to raise the profile of the fight against corruption and the inmates in E.F.C.C holding cells by nodding towards the investigation and possible trial of the former President and key ministers.

  

8.      The Buhari factor

Nigerians will become better acquainted with the persona and character of President Buhari. So far he has come across as determined and focused. He has been the face and voice of his administration, and has shown a personal trait of intolerance against corruption and threats to national security. In 2016, Nigerians will see whether he plans to yield some space to his Vice President and some of his ministers with solid accomplishments, to complement his image of strong personal integrity and unbending will. His temperament and disposition will be tested by the capacity of corrupt people to fight back, to be frustrated by compromised or weak institutions, or by the imperative of making compromises where they become necessary. President Buhari will retain wide popular support as he fights corruption, but in 2016, he also has to lay the foundations of solid socio-economic achievements. These will be his asset as an elite steeped in a tradition of pillage and plunder fight him back.

Not Amusing

A newly-committed crime awakens sleeping ones.

African proverb.

If we were not talking of almost N600b ($2.1b) of public funds that is being chased around Nigeria by the Economic and Finance Crimes Commission, (EFCC), the reaction of some of those accused of collecting from this largess will be amusing. It is even less amusing that these were funds reportedly meant for purchasing weapons to fight Boko Haram by the last administration. The stories of this and quite possibly similar audacious pillaging are not entirely told yet, but it already promises to be major issue from a past that will very much be a part of the future. 

            If not for the tragedy involved in this outrage, the image of a Falae, Yakasai or a number of those on the list of beneficiaries sitting smug with indignation over suggestions that they collected illegal funds and should now pay back will be amusing. Of the range of reactions to E.F.C.C’s flat demand to pay in full without equivocation (and still quite probably face prosecution), Brigadier-General Lawal Jafaru Isa’s will rank among the more dignified, even if he paid only in part. Olisa Metuh’s hunger strike and other antics will represent the other extreme. Most of the others specifically mentioned owned up to collecting, perhaps more because of the solid nature of the evidence than any altruistic reason. People like Fani-Kayode are putting a brave face, saying the N1.7b he received was properly allocated to his committee to improve Jonathan’s sellability through media and publicity. Baba Yakasai and Falae say they were merely conduits,and  no one will accept that they received blood money to get Jonathan re-elected.

            It will be amusing, if not for the need to retrieve every kobo literally stolen, to ask how E.F.C.C plans to ask people who say they received campaign funds to refund the amount in full. Obviously Mr Magu has never been exposed to election campaign or the manner campaign funds are used. Virtually everyone on his list of recipients will swear on the Bible or the Qur’an that the funds were duly distributed as intended. Alhaji Tanko Yakasai has already reeled out an expenditure outlay mentioning some very influential persons whose visit was facilitated by the money he received. He did not exactly say the eminent Nigerians he visited and requested to support peaceful elections received any of the money. So we should assume it was all spent by him and his committee on logistics and accommodation. How do you retrieve that? It will also be impossible to get Fani-Kayode to give  a full, accurate and defensible breakdown of the N1.7b his committee received and expended. No matter how much you press Bafarawa, how do you get him to account for the millions he received to seek spiritual help in getting Jonathan re-elected? Just ask him to refund or go to jail, unless you want him to say that even the spirits were against a Jonathan re-election, in spite of being lavishly fetted. Perhaps EFCC knows that most of those funds were not spent by people who knew Jonathan was un-electable.

            The mind boggles over just how much the PDP and the Jonathan administration spent towards losing the last election. It will take a long time for Nigerians to forget the elaborate billboards and posters, slick advertisements, targetted inducements and thousands of groups falling over each other and tons of money to sell Jonathan. Now we know, that campaign was substantially paid for with lives and limbs and the tragic destruction of whole communities in the fight against Boko Haram. Dulled by the pervasive nature of corruption in our lives, many Nigerians would have shrugged off allegation that companies, media organizations, prominent Nigerians with mixed personal records have received large sums from government to sell a sitting president. It is not new, only the  scale differs. But this blood money may be where Nigerians draw the line.

            The unfolding saga around the $2.1b (N600b) will swallow more and more people. If the president sticks to his position that he will not interfere in the investigation and possibility of prosecution, and E.F.C.C. stays within its rigid stance  that all recipients must refund in full, it will be safe to assume that E.F.C.C will require new or additional holding cells, and the courts will be inundated by the sheer numbers of cases that will be presented to them. From the opening skirmishes, a few of the recipients such as newspaper organizations have been willing and able to make refunds. Will E.F.C.C believe their stories that they did not know they were given blood money as compensation for losses suffered when president Jonathan's administration jackbooted their circulation for days on end? Why would the E.F.C.C believe the newspaper owners, and refuse to believe   Yakasai, Isa, Falae and Anenih, Mohammed and others when they claim that they did not believe they were receiving stolen funds?

            The trails following the N600b arms funds will lead this administration to mixed fortunes. It now has the best evidence that the Jonathan administration was bleeding the nation dry, literally. Funds meant for purchase of weapons for a military that was being pressed to confront a better -armed and motivated insurgency were being diverted in the same manner that billions were stolen through oil subsidy frauds, power-sector swindles, oil theft and all manner of scams that make sense only if you believe you were being governed by people who were confident that they will never be held to account. Now the fight against corruption will tap that popular nerve that is vital to its effectiveness and sustenance.

            But how far will it go and at what cost? At this stage, even the PDP leadership is attempting to put as much distance between it and the scandal. It says everyone who collected blood money is on his own. In fact it is asking President Jonathan to clarify his role in the processes involved in the release and distribution of  the funds. If you want to be uncharitable, you will smell a whiff of sour grapes from leaders of a party in disarray which saw a large chunk of its job taken away and handed over to a man and an office whose job was to advice on national security. If INEC bothers, it could ask them to account for the other billions they spent.

            There have to be answers around the process by which these funds ended up in a hundred hands, pockets and accounts. Since $2.1b did not just up and walk out of the vaults of the CBN, we have to ask who had responsibility for custody, approval for release and accountability from President Jonathan, Coordinating Minister for the Economy, CBN Governor, Accountant-General of the Federation, Auditor-General of the Federation, civil servants and security officials. How much is the administration of President Buhari willing to go in creating access to investigation around President Jonathan and other senior officials of his administration? How much of its attention and political capital  will be taken up by pursuit of corruption cases, in a context where it has to defend its action to friendly and hostile interests alike, as well as deliver on basic governance commitments? How much will the issues arising from the arms funds and other large-scale corruption cases test President Buhari’s commitment to the rule of law? How will the administration respond to the severe limitations of the judiciary? How strong is the commitment of the legislature to the fight against corruption?

            The arms funds diversions will engage the nation’s attention for quite a while. There will be people who received huge amounts that will be tried and quite possibly go to jail if government can prove that they broke laws in receiving and spending the funds. President Buhari should brace himself for corruption's fight-back, complete with parallels with 1983-1985. He may be forced to extend the battle to fronts he may not have envisaged. There is plenty of drama ahead, and the nation would be amused by some of it, if it is not so vital to our future.