Fuelling Discontent

          All well-governed states and wise princes have taken care not to reduce the nobility to despair, and the people to discontent.

N. Machiavelli.

These horrendous petrol queues may disappear before 29th of May, the first anniversary of an election that held the hope for an end to a past marked by fuel shortages, incessant power failures, bombings and unspeakable levels of plunder and decay. If they do, they will leave scars that will be reminders that the journey to a nation that has fixed its most basic problems still has a long distance to cover. If they do not, they will serve as more potent sources of discontent and resentment that could unite all classes and segments in hostility to the administration. It will be difficult to hear the drumbeats in celebration of a major watershed in the nation's history through the groans and chaos of citizens searching for expensive fuel.

       On March 28th 2015, President Buhari was transformed from a symbol of hope and faith in good leadership into a political leader. Very few people appreciated the full significance of that transformation. Millions of Nigerians saw a man with an aura and an image untainted  by the prevasive corruption which had become synonymous with political office in Nigeria. The bar set by a Buhari victory involved widespread expectations that Nigerians will soon be safe and secure; the corrupt will be made to account and corruption will be severely curtailed; institutions will be rebuilt and the poor will find relief and comfort from governments that will oversee and manage economies that are poor-friendly.

        The rot was, however, much deeper than anyone had thought. The nation waited patiently as President Buhari, now burdened by what he sought and achieved, laboured with decisions and other challenges of leading a nation through the elementery stages of governance. Where does one begin? What can or cannot be done in a political context with pronounced boundries and barricades, some of them erected by interests that were central to the success of his  transformation from a symbol to a leader? Who can be trusted to work with him? What  will be policy priorities and realistic timelines? How does a larger-than-life image become routinized into governance with a face and a character? What is the nature of the opposition? Where are the potential booby traps?

         With two months to his first year as President, most Nigerians have more or less made up their minds about the Buhari administration. The clusters of opinion range from millions who blame past administrations  for all the current  woes of the nation, and see this administration both as its victim and the solution to our problems. These Nigerians retain deep faith that with patience and support, the worst Buhari administration will be better than the best of a past they had just jettisioned. Another cluster acknowledges the potential for real improvements under a Buhari presidency, but are frustrated by seeming inertia in the context of severely limiting economic challenges. A third cluster celebrates appearances of failures to make immediate and sustained impact, even as its champions suffer the same privations shared by all citizens.

         Ordinarily, these clusters of interests and opinions will be substantially preserved, or their boundries will shift on the basis of the manner President Buhari is percieved as a leader, and his administration's capacity to address basic problems are assessed. A worst case scenario is one which unites all three over one or two issues and creates a major, negative perception. This is the scenario that the  current fuel shortage has created for the administration. The vast majority of the poor who were President Buhari's political backbone had never benefitted from the plethora of policies on refined petroleum that have made billionnaires of a few Nigerians. Regulated pump prices have been a fiction preserved over the poverty of 7 out of every 10 Nigerians for decades. Rural populations bought the commodity strictly as offerred, and it is quite possible that this is the only area in the entire industry where the market was influenced by the basic laws of supply and demand.

         Not anymore. In the last few weeks, rural supplies have dried up as speculators sold to elaborate leaks in the system in towns and cities. Where it reaches villages, it  is hardly affordable,and  causes severe distortions in consumer proces,including food prices, making life a lot more intolerable. The high cost of petroleum is compounding a worrying rise in inflation triggered by a weak Naira. In towns and cities, economic production, a small middle class and a burgoening class of economic scavengers are groaning over the audacity of importers, suppliers and distributers who sell to jerrycan owners rather than to vehicle owners. As they wait for hours or days to get petrol at regulated prices, or they squeeze money away from other necessities, millions of Nigerians cannot believe that a Buhari administration will tolerate the situation they are going through. Everyone is at the mercy of events and circumstances which make it difficult to show empathy for leaders and managers of the economy. Life is difficult enough as it is, but this  petrol supply fiasco has made everyone desperate.

         Everyone, that is, except the massive industry that thrives on the nation's misery. Importers, distributers, transporters and regulators make huge amounts as millions of small outlets  jerk up prices as they please. Much of the parasitic layer that feed from the petrol fiasco also believe in, and support President Buhari's commitment to fix the nation, and most of the young men involved would rather have sources of livelihood that last longer than periodic shortages. But  life is good for now, and they do not want it to end.

         The current shortages and leakages that create high cost for petrol have united all classes in massive discontent against an administration that a year ago could confidently have said, never again. President Buhari's tendency to apologise over difficulties does register with many of his supporters, but apologies tend to be double-edged swords. People accept them on the understanding that  things will improve. On the other hand, they provide ammunition for adversaries who use them as evidence of failure. There is also the issue of who offers the apologies,  how often and over what issues. Even the most most committed supporter of President Buhari knows who is the Minister of Petroleum Resources, on whose desk the buck stops. This puts the President directly in the line of anger and frustration of citizens, and in the line of fire of an opposition of many colours, desperate to blunt the edges of the promises for change.

       More than any other issue, this petrol fiasco fast assuming dimensions of a major economic crisis demands a sober and holistic assessment. By all means necessary, these queues must disappear in the next few days. Panic measures that will add to the discontent, such as massive arrests of peddlers of a few liters should be discouraged. Major policy reviews and decisions regarding the structure and operations of the NNPC, deregulation and operations of the Ministry of Petroleum Resources and its agencies need to be made as a matter of urgent national priority. Between now and May 29th, this adminstration should convince Nigerians that it has a lot more to offer than apologies and excuses.