Timing and context in politics

          Do not call a dog with a whip in your hand. African proverb.

What appears to be the resumption of organized violence against the Nigerian state from the Niger Delta should worry Nigerians and the international community who are encouraged by efforts to improve the state of national security and management of the nation's economy. There is wide consensus that Boko Haram has been severely contained, although its retreat has revealed the magnitude of the humanitarian disaster it had created with over two million displaced persons and destruction of basic social and economic infrastructure in many parts of the north east. As Boko Haram retreated, the new presidency was taken up by a group from the south east, seeking secession. Internal security challenges such as intra and inter-community conflicts and kidnappings also exposed a nation burdened by illegal weapons and virtually non-existent policing institutions. There was also genuine concern that the fight against corruption will trigger a response from threatened powerful interests with knowledge and influence over some of the nation's security fault lines.

Then  hooded and armed gangs who like to be called militants from parts of Niger Delta rolled out boats and joined the queue, destroying oil and gas infrastructure, engaging the military and further endangering an economy desperately attempting to come to terms with crashed crude prices. To be sure, no one believed that organized violence had permanently resigned from politics and public life in the Niger Delta. Attempts to settle and  co-opt the long line of the aggrieved into the political process and the economy showed their limitations as violence continued to run the political and electoral processes during the 2015 elections and during every other election in the region since then. The reappearance of dynamites, bombs, boats and heavily-armed men with a long list of demands written in blood and threats will compound worries over whether  INEC will ever succeed in organizing all the outstanding elections dotting the region. More specifically, the sabotage of oil and gas gas facilities threatens the national economy which depends on dwindling revenues from sell of crude oil. Sabotage of gas supplies to power generating facilities will keep generation levels low and unpredictable.

If there is some thinking behind the escalation of violence in the Niger Delta, Nigerians will be entitled to ask how much attention it is paying to the issue of timing and disposition of the leadership as well as the current  mood of the nation. It would appear that someone is getting contexts wrong, and neglecting to read historical circumstances well. This  strategic miscalculation will cost the nation dearly, but deliver very little in terms of the goals of these neo-militants. Perhaps the nation is dealing with groups similar to IPOB which reincarnates a historical relic to fight for modern spoils. It could even be the case that a few people believe that they have an inexhaustible cause that can be tweaked at convenience. Then again, someone could be overestimating the place of terror in a nation just walking away from being a victim of the worst forms of violence.

For nearly two decades, Nigeria lived with major provocations around a cause in the Niger Delta. It was impossible to dismiss the evidence of cumulative abuse, neglect and insensitivity for which governments, local leaders, oil companies and armed groups were responsible. The case for redress and restitution from a people who deserved a lot better was heard and adopted across the globe, and then forced upon reluctant sympathies of the Nigerian government and oil companies. From that moment, the flood gates were opened to every demand to be made. Violence was bought with billions, but the means of violence were tucked away. Terrible crimes were pardoned. Billions released for infrastructure development went into pockets of politicians and local muscles with fancy titles like community leaders. Voices raised in protest at the cost of peace were drowned by more violence and greater damage to the national economy. More and more was conceded to a region that was basically at par with most of the rest of Nigeria, until a President came from it, and a large chunk of the nation's resources went to it.

The nation, it seems, was wrong in assuming that it had paid its dues to the Niger Delta. When Nigerians voted to reject the farce that was the Jonathan administration, to put in its place a leadership that will secure the nation and stop the institutionalized pillage of the commonwealth, they did this along with people of the Niger Delta. If they actually voted, their votes showed that most of them preferred a continuation on the Jonathan presidency, which was their right. They lost out to other Nigerians who had had enough. The world applauded the choice for change that pulled the nation away from the margins of collapse.

Now the bombs are going off in the name of a cause that will not accept that the nation can move on. Those behind this current blackmail will find that they are choosing the wrong President to threaten. President Buhari leads a nation that has neither the patience, the resources to play with nor the luxury of time to wait for this threat to play itself out. He enjoys the support of Nigerians and the global community to secure a nation that is facing one of its worst economic crises. The military under his watch had rolled back Boko Haram. IPOB met stiff resistance from a President not given to ceding part of the nation or submitting to crude blackmail. Communities in the Delta region are unlikely to provide the type of support to violent groups as they did in the past, if the outcomes will only be the destruction of oil and gas assets and the prospects of living with a full-blown military presence. They will be even more reluctant as they learn how much was pocketed for the little they got as communities. The world has little stomach for the resumption of hostilities in the Delta, after prodding the Nigerian government and oil companies to make substantial improvements in the lives of communities. Elites from the region have done it no favours, going by the plunder of public resources that is being revealed daily. An abandoned ten kilometer road near Ituoke that was to cost one billion Naira per kilometer is a screaming testimony to the legacy left behind by leaders from the region. This is the region where three trillion Naira was supposed to have been spent under Jonathan.

Most Nigerians would welcome an end to the violence and damage to oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta, and they would prefer that real grievances are processed through the institutions of state. No one will accept that the nation must remain perpetually at the mercy of violent groups from the region. If they were in the mood for it, fellow Nigerians from the north east will make people from the Niger Delta weep with their versions of life in the last four years, and a future that does not go beyond the next meal. Many Nigerians will tell them of life resting on deepening poverty and escalating insecurity. Armed gangs who blow up facilities and kill security people are not fighting the administration of President Buhari. They are fighting Nigerians in a war they cannot win.