Managing Constituencies

Prefer a leader who comes to you.

Ugandan Proverb.

A mandate is a sovereign authority to exercise power. This was what the Nigerian people gave President Muhammadu Buhari last year. How he manages that mandate is a function of many factors, principal among which is his ability to build and sustain popular support behind his policies. There are many other factors that are substantially conditioned by the manner political, economic and security issues influence perceptions and disposition of major interests in the country. At this stage of his administration, President Buhari ought to be critically assessing the state of his mandate in a context which has made governance decidedly more challenging.

A useful starting point will be to enquire into the state of the President's Nigerian constituency. His election had seen the nation move beyond some of its worst nightmare. This included the possibility that the elections could be rigged or botched, triggering an uprising on an unprecedented scale that would plunge the nation into irretrievable crises. It could also have gone the way of a largely discredited leadership that had run its course, leaving the nation with nothing other than a continuation of a kleptocracy without even the elementary capacities to cover its tracks. A coalition of parties and powerful persons had worked together to assure the nation that its elites can still reach out to each other to bridge gulf and distances which their scramble for its resources very often create. Millions of people desperate to make their votes count towards changing their lives had toiled and kept faith with an electoral process that had a very suspect past. Nigerians cheered as former President Jonathan conceded, making history as the first incumbent president to lose an election and concede defeat. The nation gave itself a new lease of life.

It will be comforting to believe all these. Most of it was true, except the references to the whole nation. Millions who did not vote for Buhari waited to see if they will be part of his political constituency. Voices were raised from these quarters, alledging injustice, marginalization and discrimination. In the East, neo-Biafra agitations took a new life. In the South-South, political resistance against Buhari's APC dug in, with violence scuttling many repeat elections in those few places where other parties did not win. In the last few months, violence by armed groups with patently political goals has wrought massive damage on oil and gas infrastructure in the region, threatening to shut out much of the nation's ability to earn revenue from that source for many months to come. In much of the North, millions of peasants, artisans and young people held up their 'Change Wanted' placards. Boko Haram retreated leaving behind an incredible record of its presence in millions of fractured lives now sheltering in camps. It kept its spoils in the Chibok girls as the nation waits for some definitive signals on its status. Powerful and connected people who had ripped the nation of billions shuddered every time news came that one more in its elite circle was being investigated. The PDP moved from crisis to more crisis as its unfamiliar role  sank in.

President Buhari will be well advised to visit his national constituency and improve his political presence in it. Elites from the East who are available to engage on the remote and immediate causes of some of the seeming hostility to the administration should be encouraged to put these issues on the table. The President's political presence in the East should be reinforced by additional appointments of people who have some grasp of politics from the region. Neo-Biafra agitation and even the anti-'Fulani Herders' sentiments are very likely to be symptoms that a quality and sincere engagement may unravel. The president is quite capable of distinguishing between submitting to blackmail and responding to postures that suggest that some basic needs that will not threaten the nation's health require to be addressed. If there is a current engagement with people who have taken up arms again in the name of resource control, it should be sustained. The president's constituency around security of assets and welfare of local communities needs to be strengthened in the region. The challenge is to be imaginative in establishing the exact nature of the interests behind this latest round of violence, and then taking steps to engage them in a manner that does not sacrifice the core interests of the administration. Voters who put President Buhari in power from the North need constant reminding that he is not taking their continued support for granted. They also want what all other Nigerians want: positions, resources and influence.

The constituency in the fight against corruption is solid, but there is a marked degree of restiveness over concerns that a fight back is registering some success. Improvements in efficiency of investigating agencies and creative collaboration with the judiciary to process cases better and faster will be important if public confidence in the outcome of this important pillar of the administration is to be sustained. Management of information on anti-corruption activities and results also need to be improved. Reforms of public institutions to block leakages and vulnerability to the type of plunder and abuse Nigerians are daily hearing about should also be prioritized. Whispers that petty graft and abuse of basic processes are still prevalent under the administration could become louder if Nigerians do not see a marked improvement in the willingness of public officers not to ask for  or collect bribes. The fight against corruption must enlist States. The President  cannot fight corruption behind a firm and fixed line. He must lean hard on governors and national legislators to walk with him on this issue.

The constituency around creating an economy that works for the people is President Buhari's largest constituency. It is also the one most affected by the crash in crude prices, damaged oil infrastructure, major reforms that make lives a lot more challenging and heighten uncertainties that change for the better will happen in their lifetimes. There is no magic that will transform an economy in recession, but a fair and disciplined management of funds and other opportunities  will reduce the hardship most Nigerians experience. Substantial investment in areas that will transform the structure of the economy in the longer term will keep this constituency in line. Power is a major irritant in citizen-government relations. If the administration cannot improve the quantum of power available, government should make sure that the new owners of this vital utility are not also  ripping Nigerians while they stay in the dark.

There are many other constituencies that need more attention or rebuilding. The security sector needs to be seen to be responding to threats. Young Nigerians waiting for employment or opportunities to be productively engaged need attention and imaginative policies and initiatives before they walk away from expectations that the democratic system can promise and deliver. The President's party is wilting from neglect and internal schisms. A few of those who had walked with him are beginning to ask if they have arrived, or the destination has been changed. These constituencies can be made to feel important by a President who can do a lot more by exercising powers he was given by Nigerians. He can do this better if he scrutinizes his management and political capacities and takes steps to improve them. Nigeria is a large and complex country going through some trying challenges. It trusted Buhari to lead it through thick and thin. In the days ahead, his abilities to expand his assets and reduce his limitations will be contingent on the manner he negotiates with his key constituencies to retain enough control to lead the nation out of these very trying times.