In the build up to President Jonathan’s candidacy for the Presidential elections, the zoning and rotation principles of the Party came under the most intense and destructive disputes. Although they are enshrined in the Party’s constitution, their status and applicability became widely available for interpretation, depending on which narrow political interest was looking at it. In the end, the triumph of Jonathan as PDP’s candidate, even over a most formidable opponent raised by powerful interests in the north in support of the rotation and zoning principle, effectively put paid to any pretence that the rotation and zoning policy of the Party is still alive. The PDP and President Jonathan paid a heavy price for this seeming violation of a major pillar of governance, and even non-PDP northerners, right up to the elections, have not forgiven Jonathan for insisting on running on the PDP ticket in 2011.
Now, as the PDP prepares to rule for another four years, its zoning policy is under scrutiny once again. This time, however, the PDP wants to retain the old zoning policy irrespective of the massive changes in the political terrain which have occurred in the country. Not unexpectedly, this is raising some serious concerns in many circles, and it appears at this stage that the leadership will once again impose its will, and many sections of the country will try to resist this. The manner this dispute is resolved will tell Nigerians whether the PDP leadership has learnt any lessons from the recent past, or it will continue to govern as it had done in the past, irrespective of regional sensitivities and its need to demonstrate a transparent respect for its own rules.
The quarrels in the PDP over rotation and zoning will have a profound impact on the capacity of the government to achieve effective control of the nation’s competing interests and regions.
The most immediate impression which the quarrels in the PDP over zoning is creating is one which suggests that for the PDP leadership zoning is only relevant and applicable when the leaders say so. The attempt to force down upon the Legislature a leadership which is the making of the Executive and sections of the PDP leadership is in keeping with PDP traditions, and has been criticized over and over again. But the efforts to zone key offices without due considerations for history, tradition and current disposition of the PDP in all the six geo-political zones will be even more actively challenged, and will further undermine the value and efficacy of the zoning policy as an effective tool for integration and governance. It will give credence to the widely-held view that President Jonathan merely wishes to favor specific individuals, such as the President of the Senate, David Mark and former President Olusegun Obasanjo in return of their support for him. Conversely, it would also strengthen the view in some quarters that the leadership places much lower premium on the interests and loyalties of some zones, such as the South-East and the North – East. Finally, the insistence that some zones must have some specific offices, irrespective of their contributions to the current fortunes of the PDP, such as the case being made for zoning the Speaker of the House of Representatives to the South West in spite of the fact that the zone has no PDP Governor or Senator, and has only three Members in the House of Representatives will confirm the suspicion that the zoning principle is merely a source of patronage for the President to dispense on his personal whim.
What will be even more damaging to the PDP is the impression being created that the President is unable or unwilling to chart his own course as the leader, in spite of his fresh mandate. To insist that the old zoning formula must be sustained, even in the face of major shifts in the political ground, is to appear to choose the path of least resistance. The President will please the South South, which is already solidly behind him, and offend the South East, which feels it deserves more than a Deputy Senate President given its weight of votes. He will please the North Central zone which is substantially PDP and loyal anyway, and offend the North –East which believes that despite all odds, it did much better than the position being zoned to it, which is Deputy Speaker. He will please the South West which voted for him, but rejected his Party at all other levels, and further offend the North West which many in his Party feels had no interest in his candidature and political fortunes anyway. In all these calculations, there is nothing new, and even a superficial tinkering with the posts and the zones would have suggested a willingness to operate off the beaten track.
But by far the most serious problem for President Jonathan and the PDP is the impression being created that the values of leadership with honor, and respect for constitutions and laws are secondary to political expediency. President Jonathan and some leaders of the PDP who said the zoning and rotation principles are not sacrosanct will now attempt to force them down on many reluctant sections. Many party members who labored hard to get the President and the PDP will have to answer many awkward questions from Nigerians on why the zoning policy should be applied by President Jonathan today, when he rejected the rotation principle last year for this year’s elections. Many Nigerians will raise major concerns regarding the explicit criteria of religion in addition to geo-political zoning by the PDP, at a time when the nation appears to be paying a heavy price for politicizing religion.
The arguments around rotation and zoning will be won in the end by President Jonathan and his supporters in the leadership positions of the PDP. They will, because they already have the power to have their way. The rest of the Party and the nation will watch as key positions are zoned by the leaders as they wish. Many Nigerians will say that is how the PDP has always done things. But many Nigerians will also lament the loss of historic opportunities for President Jonathan to chart a new course for the nation that will effectively address its current challenges and allow him to govern as a President who has vision and courage to demolish old barriers, and build bridges in their places.
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