The April 2011 elections have provided some deep insights into the nature of political relations between major groups and sections of the polity. To move on from the current problems and challenges which the elections exposed, it is vital that Nigerians understand the nature of these relations and their implications for the nation’s survival as a unified and secure political entity. The leadership in particular needs to be sensitive to contemporary dispositions of major groups and sections, and build its strategies for governance around the visible and relevant manifestations of the political outlines of the sections and interests of the nation.
Fifty years into political independence, Nigeria has come full circle, with its politics bearing an uncanny resemblance to the immediate pre-independence era, as well as the period of independence before the military coups of 1966. Broadly speaking, the Western Region, now the South West geo-political zone was firmly in the grip of the Yoruba party, the Action Group. The Eastern Region, now the South East geo-political zone was securely under the control of the N.C.N.C, the Ibo party. The southern minority groups, now the South South geo-political zone lived under the multiple domination of the NCNC, the AG and the might of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) which exploited their weakness to build alliances with them, thus limiting the power of its rivals, the AG and NCNC. Even at that, the people of the South South showed periodic resistance, and demonstrated a desire to break free from the dominance of the major groups and their politics. The Northern Region, now represented by three zones, the North West, North East and the North Central was largely under the dominance of the Northern Peoples Congress, a largely Hausa Fulani-led Party with substantial minority participation. But the NPC also faced serious challenges from the minority groups in the middle belt and the North East, as well as a radical party in the heartland of the old caliphate, the N.E.P.U.
The elections of 2011 appear to have recreated the old order in a nation desperately searching for evidence that its unity is resting on stronger foundations, and that the ruling party’s 12 years in power may have created a framework for integration. Today, the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN is virtually a mirror image of the old Action Group, and it speaks loudly of the retreat of Yoruba people into their old roles of providing political opposition at the center while keeping a firm grip on its region. The complete routing of the PDP in the South West is sufficient testimony to this, while the region’s overwhelming support for a Jonathan Presidency appears to be a reincarnation of the old Western and Northern Region rivalry. The surging force of the All Peoples Grand Alliance (APGA) in the Ibo territories which is threatening to obliterate the PDP is evidence of the Eastern Region’s return to the old NCNC days. The dominance of the PDP in the South South is evidence of the return of the politics of security and survival through alliances with the strong and powerful, a strategy perfected long ago by leaders of the minorities of the South South. In the old North, the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is looking more and more like the old NPC, while the dislocations between the far North and the Middle Belt suggests the reinvention of the old, tenuous relations between them. The dominance of the PDP in northern minority areas and the survival of the ANPP in the North East and some parts of the North reminds the nation of the days of the United Middle Belt Convention, the Borno Youth League and the NEPU as political groupings which gave the old North its heterogeneous and fairly advanced political character.
These are, of course, rather broad categorizations, but they do represent some factual and disturbing evidence that the Nigerian people are retreating into tribal enclaves. This, for a nation which has raised the pursuit of political survival and unity to the highest levels of its priorities, and even had to fight a civil war to preserve them, says much about the failure of political leadership in the past. We need to look for answers to the difficulties and challenges which have resulted in the fragmentation of the political terrain around primordial loyalties. We need to build bridges to these political enclaves which our recent political experiences and conduct have created, but we need strong, enduring political material and leadership to do this. First we need to ask whether Nigerians have lost faith in the Nigerian project, an endeavor which requires considerable trust and faith from citizens, and political maturity and competence from the leadership. Second, we need to scrutinize the quality of the leadership, and establish whether we only have leaders who can wear small shoes, and have therefore broken up the larger shoes left by our great leaders of the past in order to govern us. Third, we need to ask if our federation has a future as it is, or whether we need to re-visit our federal system to reflect contemporary dispositions of the Nigerian people. Forth, we need to ask whether, in the manner the PDP has governed this country in the last 12 years, it has not contributed to the emergence of primordial sentiments and loyalties. If we find the answer in the affirmative, the nation needs to hold the leadership solely responsible for the political crises we face, including the manner we seem to be drifting apart, and demand that it finds answers to these problems through purposeful, effective and all-encompassing governance strategies.
The current political tendencies which have exposed the nation’s structural weaknesses must be addressed boldly and comprehensively. The elections and the post election violence we witnessed are both the cause and the consequence of our weakening political foundations. Thousands of Nigerians are victims of this weakness, even as we speak, and many hundreds have lost their lives as a result. We cannot continue to live like this, with caricatures of each other in our minds, and tribal leaders calling the shots when we should be a stronger, and more united nation. If we are largely where we are today because of the 2011 elections, Nigerians have a legitimate right to fear what will happen before or after the 2015 elections. Those who have ears to hear should do so. Politics has brought Nigeria to its knees. We must not allow it to destroy our nation for ever.
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