Prominent politicians, eminent lawyers and other leaders appear to be spoiling for a bruising fight with President Goodluck Jonathan over his reported plan to push through a constitutional amendment which will give elected persons a single term. It is being reported that across the length and breadth of the land, meetings and consultations are being held, as many groups, particularly in the opposition, appear to have smelt some blood, and are preparing to take the President to the cleaners over the issue. Some of the groups being reported to be mobilizing against the planned amendment include the Northern Political Leaders Forum which was involved in the ill-fated PDP consensus project; a Lagos-based group made up of lawyers and politicians called the National Consensus Group; and a host of other Civil Society Groups and Non-Governmental Organizations. It is not unreasonable to assume that many more groups will also the resistance to the idea, even before it becomes real. It is also to be expected that others sympathetic to the President’s initiative will galvanize support for him and the idea.
After Mr. President’s lengthy exposition on the genesis of the single-term idea before his Party’s National Executive Committee meeting last week, during which he appeared to say that he is still at the early stage of consultations on the idea, and that the idea was the product of some earlier work involving other political Parties more than two years ago, it would have been expected that some of the sting in the attacks would have been taken out. Alas, all Mr President’s explanation appear to have done are to confuse the situation even more and raise the levels of suspicion and cynicism of many Nigerians on the issue. In the first place, the President’s explanation were grossly at variance with the statement of his spokesman, Mr Reuben Abati, which explicitly stated that the President is about to send a bill to amend provisions on tenure and even giving details and justifications. The President did not distance himself from Abati’s rather categorical statement, or even refer to it before his party’s National Executive Committee. Then some of the parties and persons involved in the inter-party committee which the President says contemplated and recommended the single – term idea denied that they did so. Thirdly, the media reported such a deluge of criticisms against the idea that many people would have bet the shirts on their backs that the idea would be denounced by the President himself.
All these apparent setbacks ought to have made a difference either in the manner the opposition is assessing its strategy, or in the manner the President plans to proceed. They apparently have not. On the contrary, the opposition is becoming move active and organized around challenging the plan, while the President’s people are examining better options to spin the idea and whittle down the resistance. There are a number of possible explanations for this.
One explanation is to do with the very low levels of trust and faith of many Nigerians in President Jonathan. Obviously, much of this has to do with the circumstances under which he contested for the Presidency against his Party’s zoning policy. There is also a strong residue of resentment in some parts of the country over the perception that the elections were not credible. And they have therefore bought for President Jonathan a permanent army of hostile citizens on every issue. Then there are also endemic inconsistencies of quite a few of the people around President Jonathan, such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who only last week said that the zoning principle of the PDP which he denounced earlier is so sacrosanct and that the Speaker of the House of Representatives must step down for someone from the Southwest. Former President Obasanjo himself had failed in his bid to secure a constitutional amendment for a third term, so his relationship with President Jonathan will not exactly be a plus when credibility and political integrity are at stake.
A second explanation for the increasing resistance against the tenure proposals is related to the sheer irrelevance of the issue under our circumstances, and the suspicion that it has a major, sinister motive. When people cannot understand why a President, fresh into his mandate is seeking to affect a change in the constitution to prolong the life of elected leaders, and he says he is only interested in improving the quality of our political process because he will not be a beneficiary, they are not likely to believe him. The more sinister they suspect the motives to be, the more they will resist the President.
The danger with the manner this controversy is being handled is that it is capable of making both sides more desperate to win in the end. President Jonathan and his supporters may see a loss over the single tenure issue as a do-or-die affair, and his opponents may also will see it in the same light. An issue which has no relevance to the current challenges which Nigerians face, at least on face value, is therefore capable of becoming a major source of political friction and much energy and attention will be diverted from the real issue.
It will be difficult to see how President Jonathan will sell the single term idea to Nigerians without polarizing the nation completely. Late Sani Abacha and former President Obasanjo attempted to tinker with the constitution around issues related to their persons and ambition. They failed. Nigerians do not trust their leaders enough to believe that this issue has no hidden agenda. It was dead on arrival, and the nation should not be made to expend energy and attention beating a dead horse.
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