MANOEUVRES FOR A FUTURE

The Ijaw Leadership Forum, one of a number of groups which claim to speak for the people in the South South geo-political zones, published in some national dailies a paid advertorial on Wednesday, 21^st September, 2011, in which it lamented the state of the Nigerian nation, and demanded that the process of amending the Nigerian Constitution which will result in a major restructuring, including a provision for the right to secede, commence without delay. While stating that they sympathize with their brother, President Goodluck Jonathan who they claim has inherited a country devastated on all fronts by what they call a criminal cabal, the signatories said to other Nigerians, enough is enough. They claimed that Nigeria’s problem originates from being held hostage by a backward ruling clique from the far north since independence, and this clique is responsible for the manner in which the far north fed fat on the resources from the Niger Delta. Now, these leaders, according to the Ijaw leaders, have impoverished their own people; who are in turn rising in discontent. The Ijaw leaders are now demanding for constitutional guarantees that they can distance their people from this northern leadership, through the control of their own resources, and through the exercise of their right to secede from Nigeria, if they wish.

          The language and assertions in the advertorial by the Ijaw Leadership Forum are neither strange nor new. This has been the manner many spokespersons from the Niger Delta have addressed their grievances and demands from the Nigerian State and fellow citizens. Even when the entire region of the south south was being daily bombed and becoming swamped in criminality, the rhetoric was shrill and frightening, and other Nigerians, particularly northerners, were being blamed for the woes of the entire citizens of the region. Now that the theatre of violence has moved substantially away from the Niger Delta, the former militants and their leaders who have benefited immensely from organised violence and widespread criminality making the case for opting out of the Nigerian nation, either substantially or completely. Characteristically, the position is put forward as a demand, and a threat that should the demand fail to be met by other Nigerians, the Ijaw leaders will deploy any means necessary to defend what they call their own from any threats.

          The crude but familiar posturing by self-styled leaders of Ijaw people is intended to serve two purposes. The first is to suggest that widespread violence under the cover of the Boko Haram group is the product of northern leaders’ negligence, and represents a political statement that some sections of the north intend to undermine the government of President Goodluck Jonathan; and ultimately, to live only under Sharia Law. The goal appears to portray the government of President Jonathan as the victim of a northern assault, which must be resisted. The second purpose of the paid outburst is to register an agenda for a future constitutional conference; and to do so not as a negotiating position, or the views of a few people, but as a non-negotiable demand which other Nigerians must concede to. The far north in particular is being put on notice as the historic enemy; and it will be held responsible in the event that the demand of the Ijaw leaders are not met.

          Since President Jonathan announced plans to proceed with his plan to seek major constitutional  amendments, including changes in the tenure of elected leaders, creation of States, electoral matters, revenue allocation, State police and Local Government system, among others, Nigerians have been reminded by many self-appointed spokespersons of old regional agendas. The South West has dusted up its old demands for a Constitutional Conference with real powers which must result in a massively-restructured federal system to give the federating units greater autonomy. The South East is reminding Nigerians of its demands for additional States and improvements in constitutional guarantees that should give Igbo people greater say in the affairs of Nigeria, and equal rights wherever they live in the nation. The South South is gearing up to fight for greater ownership and control of resources, and, as the leaders of the Ijaw people now demand, constitutional provisions for secession by any of the federating units.

          In sharp contrast, the silence from the three zones in the North, which make up more than half of Nigeria, is deafening. No one is putting forward a northern agenda; or even claiming to know what it is. The so-called far north which is generally perceived by some elements in the south and the middle belt region as being responsible for the state of the Nigerian nation is on the defensive and in disarray. Its leadership structure has collapsed, and its cohesion is being threatened by constant efforts to pull the north central zone away from the far north. It is being weakened by problems in Jos, Bauchi, Kaduna, and the threats and impact of Boko Haram violence. It is, quite possibly in its history, completely in opposition, a position so unfamiliar that it appears unable to come to grips with it. It is bleeding from bad leadership, crushing poverty and debilitating corruption. The north has never been weaker, and the rest of Nigeria appears to know this very well. This is why self-styled leaders of Ijaw people can speak in the manner they do, to a people in a region which for decades had been their best allies. They, like many other self-styled ethnic and sectional leaders seem to believe that there will be no response from a politician, or political group from the north, thanks to the complete disarray occasioned in part by the 2011 elections in the north.

          The planned constitutional review will be threatened by outbursts and demands such as those being made by Ijaw Leadership Forum. It will be threatened by the appearance that it will merely alter the structure and operations of the Nigerian State to favour a specific group and weaken others. It will be threatened by the widespread perception of an absence of a leadership with the legitimacy and mandate to undertake a major amendment in the nature of the Nigerian State. But all these should not make the north complacent. Many parts of Nigeria perceive a major weakness of the north, and they will attempt to take advantage of it. A weak north is a liability for northerners, and a threat to all Nigerians. The north needs to understand the nature and source of the threats to its position in Nigeria today, and in the future. It needs to re-engineer itself to engage the rest of Nigeria effectively and constructively in the current manoeuvres for a future.