It is now painfully obvious that neither government nor Boko Haram will accept that it is losing the war which is bringing unprecedented pain to the nation. In the last few weeks, the Boko Haram insurgency has escalated its campaign of terror, and has claimed that it is doing so in response to arrests, killings and detentions of its members in Maiduguri, Kano and Kaduna, among other areas. It also claims to have issued threats to people in Sokoto through their leaders that it will attack the city if its members continue to be arrested. The government, on the other hands, has intensified its crackdown on members, and has made many arrests. There are allegations and accusations in Maiduguri that suspected members of the Boko Haram were being killed extra-judicially by soldiers after being arrested in their homes. Many members of the group have been arrested and are undergoing interrogation, but neither the attacks nor the proganda from the group is abating. The audacious attack on military formations in Kaduna on Tuesday February 7th which is coming in the midst of the unceasing attacks on police stations in Kano is a reminder that the group’s intention is to continue to wage war against the Nigerian state and its agents, and if innocent citizens, muslims or christians get caught in the crossfire, it is just their ill-luck.
The manner this conflict is developing will leave all citizens extremely worried. With all the human, technical and legal resources at its disposal, government appears incapable of preventing spectacular and devastating attacks on security agents and the public. Its intelligence, if it is has any, is obviously severely faulty, when it cannot prevent a large and coordinated attack on many targets in Kano, and the subsequent attacks almost on a daily basis on police stations. This failure had already been amply demonstrated in the nature of the endemic assaults in Borno and Yobe States in the last few months. But the attacks on military formations in Kaduna will expose the weaknesses of the government and security agencies even more. These attacks remind the citizens how vulnerable they are; and the reported attempt to blow up the Kawo overhead bridge may indicate that the insurgency is beginning to target critical civilian infrastructure.
On the other hand, the Boko Haram insurgency must by now be acutely aware that the general population is both afraid and angry with it. It is fighting a war in the name of Islam and muslims, and many of its victims are muslims who just want peace. It wants the same thing most muslims and christians want; which is a just and fair Nigeria where leaders live as God decrees, and where lives are not taken at will without punishment. Overwhelming majority of muslims still believe that suicide and murder are irredeemable sins, so they are unlikely to find overwhelming support among the muslims umma when they claim that all they do is in the interest of Islam and muslims. Millions of muslims share the pain of the mass murder of muslims in Zangon Kataf, Zonkwa, Jos and Yelwan Shendam, but most muslims cannot see how the killing of chrisitans and fellow muslims, as well as policemen and soldiers with bombs today will avenge those atrocities. Most Nigerians also doubt that Boko Haram will succeed in bringing the Nigerian state to its knees, and forcing it and all Nigerians, muslims and non-muslims alike, to live only under the Sharia or risk living in perpetual conflict. Similarly, Boko Haram is operating in an environment which gives all muslims the comfort that if they are murdered, Allah Subhanahu wa Taala will visit their sins on their murderers, and they, in turn, are assured of Aljanna Firdausi, while their killers will be condemned to hell. There is also the danger that the insurgency will suffer splits fatigue and a dilution of its essence, leading it to an inglorious defeat, or a long war with itself.
Unless there is a dramatic improvement in the capacity of the Nigerian state to obliterate all traces of Boko Haram activity in the next few months, or a radical re-think on the part of Boko Haram to renounce all hostility, this conflict looks likely to drag on and take more casualties. Both are highly unlikely. Boko Haram leaders have very deep suspicions of the government’s offer to discuss their grievances, provided they can reveal themselves. They know that it expose themselves is to give up their strongest weapons; and they say that past efforts to discuss with the agents of the government have betrayed them. Government, on the other hand, will not admit to a failure to bring the insurgency to an end, and will continue to throw troops and barricades at it. In the meantime, young people willing to commit suicide during missions seem to be more and more available to the insurgency. The ability to make local bombs appears to be spreading. The sophistication and intelligence of the Boko Haram field operations appear to be improving. Their access to weapons, uniforms and detailed intelligence against the Nigerian security agents is improving. Above all, they are succeeding in terrorising host communities into silence and enforcing acquiescence, which makes their capacities to operate within innocent localities easy, but tends to attract hostility and some heavy-handed treatment from security agents.
It is time to re-examine other options for both government and the Boko Haram insurgency. If both of them agree, it may be useful to accept a three-month moratorium, during which all hostilities and arrests should cease. In these three months, avenues should be explored to put arrested Boko Haram suspects through the judicial process, and where it serves the law and public interest and security, they may be released from detention. The insurgency leaders should also demonstrate their control over their people by ceasing all attacks, and perhaps, in this manner, they may expose criminals widely suspected to be killing Nigerians and attacking churches and banks and making it appear as if Boko Haram is responsible. It may help to assure the nation that Boko Haram’s claim that it attacks only agents of the state and those who betray it is, in fact, true. After all, Boko Haram says many killings and destruction are done by agents of the state.
A three month moratorium on hostilities and arrest should be used by both the government and Boko Haram leadership to intensely explore options to their current strategies. Respected Ulama and other leaders should also get involved in mediating between the two, with firm assurances that their safely and integrity will not be compromised. The period should be used to explore genuine avenues for resolving the core grievances of the insurgency, and no options should be excluded. By the end of the moratorium, a formal and structured platform should emerge which may allow an all-inclusive dialogue and a roadmap towards a resolution.
The proposal for a moratorium on hostilities, arrests and trials is just about the most useful suggestion which could be offered in the current stand-off between government and the Boko Haram insurgency. It should be given serious consideration, because the only other option is a continuation of current hostilities which are threatening the lives of every Nigerian in the short term, and the future of the nation as one entity in the long term. There will be some Nigerians who will scoff at the idea of the ceasefire and dialogue with Boko Haram insurgents, but they should be reminded that it was dialogue and massive concessions that brought a resolution to the Niger Delta insurgency. There may be some in government who will feel that government is capitulating. They should be reminded that the government is actually losing this war, and it shows no capacity to win it in the long run, going by its present disposition. There may be some in the Boko Haram leadership who will insist in fighting on. But they should know that fighting alone, without some objectives which are achievable, is a wasteful exercise. The nation has taken note that Boko Haram has a grievance, and a capacity to force attention to it. It is time to consolidate on this, and not fritter it away in a war that is fast taking its toll on it. Above all, it is time for all Nigerians, particularly those respected by the people as men and women with unimpeachable integrity, leaders of opinion and the ulama to stand between the government and the Boko Haram insurgency, and broker a ceasefire for at least three months.
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