JONATHAN’S SHOES

“Next time a man asks you to vote for him because he grew up without shoes, just buy him a pair of shoes and move on.”

A recent Nigeria joke about President Jonathan.

 

Because he had failed to take ordinary Nigerians along in the run-up to his decision to remove subsidy on petroleum, millions of Nigerians saw President Jonathan’s action as cruel and insensitive. Many remembered his inaugural speech which touched a sympathetic nerve, when he reminded the nation that he started as a schoolboy who went to school barefoot in his village. Many Nigerians who saw themselves or their children in the life and experiences of President Goodluck Jonathan thought the lessons and benefits of his remarkable journey will not end in the Presidential Villa in Abuja . They were told to expect a fundamental changes from the past, and transformation from a man whose humble beginnings and fairytale journey to the top could only mean that they will have a government that will address poverty, hopelessness and fear.

President Jonathan’s comments since the beginning of the subsidy removal fiasco indicate that the knows many simple and poor Nigerians are angry and disappointed with him. A well read friend of mine said if the poor knew philosophy, they will describe their betrayal by Jonathan as that of politicians like him who, according to Oscar Levant, double-cross bridges before they even come to them. Poor Nigerians said President Jonathan took away their tattered shoes now that he has many of his own. His assurances that things will get better was cold comfort to many who think they will also lose their feet by the time things improve. President Jonathan must feel like the former US President Harry Truman who in his many battles with Congress and the opposition over the economy said, “I never give the pubic hell. I just tell the truth, and they think its hell.”

President Jonathan’s best friends will hope that he can fill the big shoes required to deal with the consequences of his decision to remove subsidy on petroleum, because he has won one battle, but has a long way to go to win the war. In many ways the challenges he will face will be even more demanding than those he and the nation have just come through. The poor manner the subsidy policy (which predated Jonathan) was handled, and the even poorer approach of President Jonathan to its removal have thrown up fundamental questions about governance. Nigerians now know just how murky the waters are around the petroleum sector. They want a radical reduction in the size and cost of governance. They want higher levels of transparency and accountability in leadership at all levels. They want to know how budgets are made; who decides how much is spent on who; why so much should be spent on selected areas and not others; and what their elected leaders earn and why. Nigerians want to know what comes to their governments and from what sources; who is giving up to the public purse and who is withholding; who is underpaying and who is exempted from paying. They want to know how much our leaders set aside to eat and entertain themselves; to travel or buy planes and bullet-proof cars; to buy diesels for their giant generators and drugs for their clinics. They want to know what the additional income to government from the removed subsidy will be used for. They want answers to their poverty, insecurity and massive unemployment. Young Nigeria want to see a glimmer of hope that they have a future as productive adults in a nation which should secure and guarantee it for them.

The involvement of many civil society organizations and other groups as well as the political opposition in demanding for answers to these questions will keep President Jonathan on his toes, and on his feet. This, in a way, is why his shoes must be tough enough for the assignment. Just dealing with endemic corruption around petroleum sector community which ties up NNPC, PPPRC, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Ministry of Finance, Nigeria Customs Service will require the deployment of the strongest political will. Beyond investigating past violations of the law and due process, a matter over which Nigerians have a registered cynicism, raising the levels of transparency and accountability in and around the petroleum sector will be a major undertaking. Many legitimate questions have been raised regarding the capacity of Jonathan’s administration to tackle both corruption and deep reforms around the petroleum sector, with many of the key players sitting smugly on their seats. Then there are basic issues about the budgeting process, and the hard questions which Nigerians will demand answers for. Why, for instance, should we spend N1 trillion on security when the police cannot prevent the escape of a high profile suspect in a Boko Haram bombing? How much comfort should we derive from a N1 trillion spending on security when Middle Belt leaders are shown on television discussion how they can improve their own security, complete with a briefing from an Israeli? Nigerians will ask why we have to pay elected leaders so much, when workers had to go through very difficult struggles to get a minimum wage of N18,000, which the increase in petroleum price has now rendered virtually useless? Then there are many valid questions around the size and redundancy of government Ministries, Departments and Agencies; hundreds of political appointees who do virtually nothing to add value to the quality of governance, and an entire federal structure which merely serves to absorb and spend public funds around leaders.

The post-subsidy saga has put President Jonathan in a real spot. He will have to reclaim lost ground in political terms, which has been caused by two developments. One was the unfortunate outing by Ijaw leaders and youth which exposed his base in its narrowest form. The second is the resort to strong arm tactics to bring to an end the subsidy strikes, which included the invocation of security concerns and the virtual occupation of Lagos . He has further alienated the leadership of the Yoruba, and has offended many northern christians who voted for him at some cost, and who being among the most impoverished segment of society, will feel that he has rewarded their loyalty with hardship. He has made enemies with the vocal elements of civil society organizations, and the dormant political opposition is stirring.

In economic terms, President Jonathan will be expected to perform near-miracles. He will be expected to deliver on the palliatives he has promised, at a time when there really isn’t spare cash to put aside for them. All because subsidy has been removed (President Jonathan will say partially removed) Nigerians will expect a higher performance rate in rehabilitation of basic infrastructure, particularly power, roads and rail transport. They will expect a radical improvement the overall performance of government in terms of delivering service, as compensation for the radical rise in the cost of living. They will expect a reduction in terms of the threats to their lives and property; and they will expect to see their leaders make sacrifices the same way they do.

The shoes that President Jonathan wears now should enable him go the distance to deliver on his promise to transform Nigerian. It will be fatal for his administration and the nation if he fails to do this, particularly at a time when Nigerians’ faith and trust in politicians is at its lowest ebb. Former Soviet Union leader Nikita Khrushchev once described politicians as people who promise to build a bridge even where there is no river. President Jonathan has no luxury of a honeymoon period, and he certainly cannot afford further decline in popular perception regarding his competence to run the country. His job as President has been made more difficult by his recent decisions, and by the impression he has created that it will be well for Nigerians in the long run. Since he now has shoes, Nigerians will expect him to cover the distance, and win the race against cynicism, opposition and a weak political capacity.