CONSPIRACY IN CONSENSUS

“If God had wanted us to vote, he would have given us candidates”

Jay Leno, Comedian.

The just concluded National Convention of People Democratic Party which produced a new set of its leaders is a study in the perversion of all the core values of the democratic process. It is significant not just because it has extended a tradition in the party which has successively replaced popular will with elite conspiracy, but because it makes a very clear statement on how events are likely to unfold towards 2015. Anyone who had hoped that the many lesson which are crying to be learnt from 2009 to date will be disappointed. Many other Nigerians have since resigned themselves to the fact that the ruling party lives by its own rules; and these are not the rules which give life and sustenances to the democratic process.  

The PDP now has a national chairman who was rejected by a small caucus at his base and political home; but was dusted up, spun around and installed by a stronger, and quite possibly smaller clique which has higher ambitions and stronger stakes in his chairmanship. He will work with other officials who are products of the muscle of big men and powerful vested interests. None has had their popularity or acceptability tested among card-carrying members of the party who will not get close to former President Obasanjo, President Jonathan, Governors or the legion of fixers. These will be people who emerged on the skeletons of many ambitions sacrificed on the alter of very narrow ambitions, and who will be constantly reminded that they owe their positions to a few men who forced down many competitors so they can take theirs.

The current leadership of the PDP is the product of a consensus of the few against the popular will of the members. It will lead a party which is willing to submit to everything except elections to test the popularity of its leaders. It will know that the nation will not be fooled by the spin put behind this perversion that an agreement among a few strong men which is termed consensus is superior to an open and free election at every stage provided for by the spirit and letter of the constitution of the party. These leaders will be the same people the nation will expect to uphold the rules that are central to the protection of intra-party democracy. They will lead their party to contest for offices in an electoral process which places a major burden on political parties to respect their own rules. They will take many decisions, and deal with many intra-party disputes on the basis of rules which require to be respected. If they carry the consensus mentality which brought them into offices, the nation will be in even greater trouble than it is. And why shouldn’t they? Consensus solves the problems which are associated with free and open contest that may lose a position powerful people desperately need to garner more power. It provides a cover for many anti-democratic practices which are undertaken without which you cannot guarantee nomination or the elimination of opposition.

Consensus among largely northern elite brought President Obasanjo to power. He systematically and assiduously dismantled the basic power structure of the north which installed him as President in 1999. Thereafter, he became the consensus. There was only one source of power from 2002 until 2007. His power rolled back the AD in 2003, and until he met his nemesis in Tinubu, he may still be relevant in the southwest today. It was consensus personalized around Obasanjo that produced President Yar’Adua and Jonathan, and it was the Northern PDP consensus candidate misadventure that created the underserved sympathy that was in part responsible for the Jonathan Presidency. Wherever you see the PDP, you see consensus, and it invariably means some monumental subversion of the will of the people is at play.

So what could be the motive behind this latest manifestation of the contempt for internal democracy in the PDP which is being touted as the victory for democracy? Could it be the case that President Jonathan’s desire to run again in 2015, whether the constitution gives him the right to be sworn-in three times or not, is already being pursued? Even if, in the unlikely event that he doesn’t run, he retains the power to decide where the Presidency “goes”: southeast or north, a national party leadership wholly loyal to him will be vital. Could it be the case that the President is already involved in weakening potential opposition, such as Atiku Abubakar, in the manner the leadership of the party is installed? Could these be opening skirmishes between the President and Governors which will test who has powers to decide who runs and who doesn’t, in a party where outright blackmail and unimaginable uses of money and official powers have secured many victories, without a single ballot cast?

The hope that the electoral process will be improved by the manner political parties improve their own internal democracy will be further diminished by the last PDP convention. As it is, the political terrain is replete with evidence that the nation is not learning the appropriate lessons from the setbacks suffered from 2009 to date. The only viable opposition is the ACN, but it is too busy building tribal fortresses against the PDP, and in reaction to signs that the nation is heading for massive structural instability under this administration and beyond. Its champion whose 60^th birthday is being celebrated, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, has chased Obasanjo out of the southwest, but has no illusions of turning his party into a credible option to the PDP. The CPC has suffered massive post-traumatic stress disorder, and although it is currently undergoing critical self-assessment and examining strategies for renewal, it is  losing ground and space at a rate that should alarm it. Only last week, it lost an entire edifice in Kebbi State, complete with the candidate challenging the election of PDP’s candidate with just days to the re-run elections. If the PDP wrote its own script for dealing with the opposition, it couldn’t have done a better job. But what is it doing with the unexpected spoils? It carries on as usual. It has little time for intra-party rules; candidates who should test popularity at their constituencies, or even the opinion of a nation which is routinely told that consensus is the best form of democracy. It “dashes” zoned positions to powerful people, and even a 60 year old man has been made youth leader by his godfather.

The future of Nigeria’s democratic system is bleak. The nation is agog with debates about conferences and restructuring, and is grappling with monumental security challenges. All these have their roots in bad governance. The party which has led this nation for the last 12 years has shrunk the democratic space dangerously. When a friend credited the PDP with holding together Nigerian democracy in the last 12 years, I observed that it sounds like saying that the hyena ate up the goat to keep it safe. The only problem bigger than the PDP is the absence of real opposition to challenge it to raise the bar, or replace it altogether and breath a new lease of life in this system in which big men rule us by their consensus.