ROADMAPS AND ROADBLOCKS

“By trying, we can easily learn to endure adversity. Another man’s, I mean.”
Mark Twain, 1897.

The second South South Economic Summit was concluded last week in Delta State. The Delta State government had wanted the President to land in Asaba, its capital, and was going to spend over N7billion to clear a sandy hill which in its judgment, was an obstacle to its desire to have the presidential aircraft land in Asaba, rather than in far away Uyo or Benin. In the end, President Jonathan did not attend the Summit. He was represented by Vice President Namadi Sambo. It will be interesting to know what the Delta State Government intends to do with the offensive pile of sand which it says obstructs large planes such as Mr President’s from landing. It could call off the expensive venture, or it could go ahead and remove the sand, and very likely spend more money to have the runway properly constructed for presidential aircraft. It is anybody’s guess which other planes will be expected at Asaba when President Jonathan ceases to be the No 1 citizen.

In any case, the Summit will be judged the usual success. It will be one in a series of geo-political fora which are being organized to design or unveil roadmaps and blueprints for the consolidation of development efforts in geo-political zones. The nation is marveling at the elaborate and inspiring blueprint being discussed by Yoruba States, which, if it were to be implemented, would make the southwest of Nigeria a highly integrated economic unit with a massive potential to develop. It also hints at a strategic option, a Plan ‘B’ for the region to go it alone in the event that the future of the Nigerian state cannot be salvaged or guaranteed. The region already has a critical precondition for economic integration and development: substantial political integration under the ACN.

The south east is also actively looking inwards, and its considerable number of citizens living outside the country are pushing for some space to make inputs into the design for roadmaps and blueprints. The region’s split personality is however still a problem, and it is being weighed down heavily by crime rates which make lawful and secure existence almost impossible. Nonetheless, it is actively tapping into the goodwill and good fortune of the south south, and for now, it sees a future around a 2015 presidency, and improvements in its political fortunes from possible constitutional amendments.
The south south is making its hay while the sun shines. It enjoys near solid unity under the PDP, and the substantial clout of an incumbent President. It alone receives about 50% of revenue from oil and gas, an amount large enough to allow Delta State government attempt to remove a sandy hill for N7billion without anyone batting an eyelid. The region is in a hurry to translate its considerable revenues into sustainable investable capital, durable infrastructure and an industrial base which will operate with substantial autonomy from the oil and gas industry. It could focus on a Jonathan presidency until 2015 as a critical target to achieve maximum impact, or it could plan to push for another term for him after 2015. It must be building this incumbency factor into its roadmaps, plans and strategies, because it is obvious at this stage that if anyone becomes President of Nigeria after 2015 under a PDP platform he will be expected to behave as if his zone is the only part of Nigeria which matters. This is what the PDP zoning formula has done to Nigeria. The sun follows PDP presidents, and most others live in darkness and bitterness.
Even the north central zone is making efforts to create a mental image of a region which can achieve some measure of coherence and uniformity. Its plethora of groups are constantly looking for allies in each other, and a few months ago, they even succeeded in hosting a security “summit”. This most diverse part of Nigeria has a massive crisis of identity, and quite a few of its thinking citizens believe it can and should focus on the most essential elements, such as resolving just how to treat each other legally, socially and politically, and how to relate with the rest of Nigeria.

The rest of Nigeria outside these areas have no roadmaps to a prosperous and secure future. They have roadblocks every few meters. The northeast and substantial part of the northwest are defined by violence and decaying infrastructure. They have become substantially de-industrialized in the last 20-odd years, and the most dominant party in the region, the PDP, has no room or need for this leaders. Most parts of the northeast, northwest and parts of Niger and Kogi states are effectively living under military occupation, and yet are daily exposed to the violence of Boko Haram. While leaders and intellectuals are planning how millions of fellow citizens will live in 10 or 20 years in some parts of Nigeria, poor citizens in the far north and parts of the middle belt live without guarantees that they will see the next day.
Significantly, the National Security Advisor, General Owoeye Azazi chose the second south south economic summit to offer an insight into the critical linkages between politics, economy and security. The NSA said the PDP’s zoning and rotation policy, a devise which effectively precludes entire populations from aspiring for the position of President, breeds bitterness and unhealthy competition. He said the current levels of violence can be traced to disputes regarding the Nigerian who, only by reference to his ethno-geographical (and religious) origins can become a candidate or a president. He was reported to have said that there are political linkages to the Boko Haram insurgency, and implied that these linkages are so deep that even if all the leaders of the insurgency were arrested today, there are no guarantees that this will end the problem. He was explicit in linking the failure of some politicians to realize their ambitions with the resurgence and improved capacity of the insurgency, and he made it clear that unless we address poverty and inordinate political ambition, the roots of the insurgency will sprout sooner or later. He did not sound optimistic about 2015, and hinted that current jockeying for positions will compound the current security situation.

Now, give or take the issue of whether General Azazi was acting as a spoiler in a forum which was intended to showcase the achievement of the administration and the PDP, his comments (which I hope he does not retract) say a lot about our current situation. He is right of course on the contribution of PDP’s rotation and zoning policy to the challenges of governing the Nigerian state. So long as the PDP continues to dominate the political landscape, the nation will continue to pay heavy penalties for an arrangement which has lost all credibility, and which offends the very foundations of a democratic system. The zoning arrangement will continue to generate the worst elements of our political system: the tribalization of our highest offices, and dangerous panderings to our divisive elements. Every political contest will have a bitter end, and will fuel more crises.
But General Azazi spoke about a lot more than the danger in the zoning principle of the PDP. He hinted that there is a strong correlation between the last elections and the current sophistication of the Boko Haram insurgency. As a key adviser and one who should know, the nation will welcome some evidence that links politicians with Boko Haram in a direct, substantial manner. The price the North and the nation are paying for this threat are unacceptable, and we need to go beyond innuendoes and conjectures to expose any possible linkages between politicians and Boko Haram. Certainly, if the Advisor himself says so, he must be standing on firm ground. He should let us know, because blaming faceless politicians and politics alone for a problem we live with on a daily basis just isn’t good enough.
Twelve years ago, Nigerians looked ahead with faith and optimism that the democratic process will provide the context for releasing the nation from its cumulative and damaging political liabilities, and unleash our creative energies to rebuild a nation we can all be proud of. Tragically, these twelve years have created many parts of a nation, some forging ahead, others regressing dangerously. Yet all the parts are so intimately interwoven that the roadmaps of the southwest and south-south are actually hostages to the hundreds of the roadblocks of much of the north. The link is a political process which increasingly perverts the democratic values and institutions which we should be building. Yes, General Azazi is right. The PDP is a threat and a danger to the nation. So is the Boko Haram insurgency. The PDP should not continue to breed insecurity, and Boko Haram should not continue to threaten the very existence of the Nigerian State.