“You can tell a good
Friday from the Wednesday preceding it”.
Hausa Proverb
This
watch list focuses on issues, activities, developments or actors with the
potential to affect the Nigerian political economy in the period, July to
September, 2012. It is not exhaustive, and the criteria for selection have been
informed by current national concerns, developments and linkages with other
issues outside the list. The watch list is meant strictly as a guide towards
areas or issues that may inform government policy or shape public opinion.
10. The Rainy Season
The
rainy season in Nigeria has always had two contradictory impacts. It is the
period during which the nation’s major investments in agriculture are made. It
is also the season which tends to expose the weaknesses and limitations of
basic physical and social infrastructure, as well as the capacity of the state
to respond to them. The rainy season in this quarter will bring widespread
damage to socio-economic infrastructure which governments have ignored to fix;
and widespread complaints, particularly from the northern part of the country,
that fertilizer is still too expensive for small producers to access.
9. Ngozi Ononjo-Iweala
The
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy is potentially a
very powerful person in the management and reform of the nation’s economy. Her
first year in office has been marked by massive turbulence around issues
relating to deregulation and liberalization policies. This quarter should
indicate the degree to which she is succeeding in pushing the frontiers for
reform, or accepting the limited space and scope with which she has operated so
far.
8. The Sovereign Wealth Fund
The
fate of this instrument intended to shield national resources from endemic
plunder and creating a stable resource base for real investment may be decided
this quarter. The deadlock between the federal government and governors over
the size of the fund and the existence of serious political issues around a
consensus towards achieving at least $10b in the fund will
either cripple it substantially, or be resolved by more effective political
negotiations.
7. The Federal Cabinet
There
has been much speculation over the fate of many ministers in a rumoured shake up.
Elaborate details have been leaked and denied by the administration, leading to
intense lobbying and loss of morale among ministers. The period under review should
indicate whether the President is willing to bring on board fresh and more capable
hands, or even sack untouchables in his cabinet who represent major sources of weaknesses
in his administration.
6. Fuel Subsidy
Investigation
The
federal government has just set up another committee to investigate, verify and
reconcile the findings of the technical committee earlier established by the
Federal Ministry of Finance to conduct a detailed review of all subsidy claims
and payments that were made in 2011. The committee has only one week to
conclude an assignment into an issue over which many other committees have also
been involved. The national assembly’s effort have registered a major casualty
among its ranks, which has quite possibly fatally injured its own report. There
are many other reports of investigations, and even the E.F.C.C. is supposed to
have received information which could be acted upon to prosecute those involved
in the subsidy scam.
This
period should indicate the sincerity of the federal government in exposing
those involved in the scam, and willingness to tackle widespread corruption in
the oil and gas sector.
5. National Security
Adviser
The
new National Security Adviser may substantially improve the prospects for some
type of truce and commencement of engagement with JASLIWAJ (a.k.a Boko Haram),
or he may turn out to be even more powerless than his predecessor. The frenzy
of contacts, visits and media engagements in which he has been involved since his
appointment suggest that he believes that governors, traditional rulers and
public opinion are critical to his success. If he is wrong in identifying these
as sources for the resolution of the issues raised by the insurgency, he would
have missed a critical period within which to make an impact. Major indicators
for gauging his success include the degree to which he influences activities of
security agencies, and whether he represents a credible mediatory avenue,
either on his own or with others. The caliber, clout and pedigree of the person
to be appointed Minister of Defence will also be an important success factor
for the NSA.
4. Jama’atu Ahlil Sunnah Liddaawati Wal
Jihad (a.k.a Boko Haram)
With
the Ramadan fast starting in July and a new National Security Advisor
vigorously waving olive branches, this period should indicate whether this
insurgency has the cohesiveness and foresight to take political decisions that
go beyond fighting state agents and christians. If it calls a truce during the
Ramadan period, and it is able to sustain it, it could strengthen its hands in
any discussion with the government. Its continuing threat and potential to
cause widespread havoc has been amply demonstrated in Kaduna State recently.
3. The Elections in Edo
State
All
the indices for a bitterly-fought gubernatorial election in Edo State have been
registered. The PDP is desperate to defeat the sitting governor, and even
President Jonathan has had to undergo a personal humiliation at the palace of
the Oba of Benin in his bid to enlist influential support. The governor himself
will throw everything at the PDP, and the electoral process will be severely
stressed in this election. The fallout of these elections will be registered
well beyond the elections themselves, and politically-related violence will
most likely rise. The Edo elections are critical because they have a direct
relationship with 2015.
2. Northern Governors
Northern
governors have retreated substantially from effective governance since the
middle of 2011. Serious incursions of JASLIWAJ (Boko Haram) activities in many
parts of the north have introduced a heavy and crippling federal presence
through security agencies’ activities in the North. Declining resources to make
any real impact, (especially with the N18,000 minimum wage burden) have made
northern governors largely irrelevant in terms of development and politics in
the north and Nigeria. The period under review should either see an initiative
to recapture lost ground by the governors through populist rhetorics or use of
proxy groups, or a further decline in their influence as they retreat from the
threat and damage of JASLIWAJ and the poverty of their citizens.
1. President Goodluck
Jonathan
President
Jonathan has not demonstrated a strong political will and character to lead
this nation out of its severely crippling challenges and limitations so far.
Deepening and expanding corruption and the increase in the scope and damage of
the JASLIWAJ insurgency have created the image a weak and ineffective President.
This period should indicate whether the President can generate and deploy a
stronger will and demonstrable competence in managing the affairs of state; or
he will continue to operate in a manner that suggests that the solutions to the
nation’s problems may come from anywhere else, but him.
General Overview
The
third quarter of 2012 is likely to be marked by intensification of violence by the
JASLIWAJ insurgency and efforts to frustrate genuine efforts to expose and deal
with corruption which occurs substantially around the administration. There are
likely to be issues around ineffective and weak implementation of the budget, and
wider clamour for improvements in accountability by leaders. Real improvements in
the quality of governance or effectiveness of policies to eradicate poverty and
insecurity are not envisaged.
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