Why Stella may get her groove back

“It is better to escape with difficulty than to be caught with difficulty.” Hausa Proverb.

A 1998 movie titled How Stella Got Her Groove Back, adapted from Terry Sullivan’s bestselling novel of the same title was a huge success. It was about a married, successful woman who went on a vacation alone and then fell in love with a much younger man. The gripping drama showed the woman struggling between submitting to her desire for love and companionship and responsibilities to her family and career. She made difficult decisions which allowed her to rediscover her priorities and core loyalties in the end. That was how she got her groove back.

I am being reminded of that movie by the events around the Minister of Aviation, Mrs Stella Oduah. Our own Stella is going through her own personal crisis and could quite possibly get her groove back as well. This Stella has many things going for her, and it is not so much a question of what choices she makes now in the context of the crisis, but how other factors influence the outcome of her crisis.

The story of the two bullet proof vehicles allegedly bought at highly inflated prices without following prescribed expenditure guidelines, using funds from an agency of the Ministry, violating decisions of the national assembly, threatening to end careers of a few civil servants, agitating anti-corruption activists and mobilizing the Minister’s kith and kin to defend her are all too familiar to Nigerians. The President was reportedly angered and embarrassed by revelations involving a Minister he is particularly close to. A powerful panel of three was set up to investigate, before both President and Minister Oduah travelled to Jerusalem to pray for peace and good governance for Nigeria. The public, meanwhile, has been daily regaled by new ‘facts’ and discoveries, including the outpourings of an enraged legislative committee. Now that Mr President, Stella Oduah and a member of the three person investigation panel, the National Security Adviser are back, perhaps the investigations, at least from the executive arm, could commence. But it is safe to caution Nigerians not to expect too much out of all this heat. This Stella too could get her groove back.

This is not an administration with a distinguished record for going against loyalists, and this Stella has earned her stripes of loyalty in more ways than even the administration can reveal. The President had sacked Ministers identified as having conflicting interests; or failing to curb insurgencies, or botching an interest in a youth organization; or being nominees of rebellious PDP titans. But he has not touched Ministers and other powerful officials who sit over gaping holes in revenues from oil and gas resources, or the management of our economy. The pension and fuel subsidy scams are scandalous not just by their sheer scale and audacity, but by the fact that it is conceivable that powerful interests behind them are yet untouched.

It must be a new low we have struck as a nation, when the President will ask a former Head of the Civil service of the Federation, the National Security Adviser and a military officer to investigate allegations that a minister purchased two vehicles illegally. The President only needs to call in the DG of BPE, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry and his Director of Finance and head of Internal Audit, the Auditor-General of the federation and the C.E.O of NCAA and his officials if he really needs to get personally involved in the investigation, because Stella Oduah is no ordinary Minister. In one sitting, he would have all the facts around this purchase. Better still, he could direct a discreet investigation if he wanted to put some distance between him and the investigation, and he will still have all the facts.

As the investigation panel gets ready to sit down, it should brace itself for some possible surprises. It could hear that the Minister had nothing whatsoever to do with the purchases. She could claim that everything was done by officials below her. Documents can go missing so much so that there will be no evidence at all that the vehicles were purchased with the approval or consent of the Minister. Different documents can surface that contradict each other to the point where serious doubts will be cast on every element of the transaction, particularly cost and purchase transactions. Officials will swear and deny roles and blame other officials without supporting documentary evidence. In fact, the committee could come across evidence that there were no bullet-proof vehicles bought for the use of the minister at all. Monies will still be in accounts, intact. Enemies and mischievous civil servants and spokesmen will be blamed for creating an elaborate falsehood.

The national assembly will huff and puff, but it will be stymied by the same tactics. Its integrity will be stretched and challenged by a stonewalling strategy which will only allow it to recommend that the President sacks Mrs Oduah and a few public officials. He won’t, if he is not convinced that it is in his best interest. There are others just within reach with the same sentence, still waxing stronger.

This is a very bad time for the President to lose proven loyalists. Mrs Oduah may quite possibly have crossed a few lines, but there will be many in the inner caucus of the presidency watching very closely to see where the President will draw his own line. With opposition buffeting the ship and political sharks swirling around at the smell of blood, would the purchase of two vehicles, or even an entire fleet by Mrs Oduah justify her sack? What will the President gain by sacking her? Will it improve his record for intolerance against corruption? Will it make other Ministers and government officials sit up and take notice of a new regime in place at the Villa? Will he sack her over vehicles when her cheerleaders say she had done well, in spite of recent air crashes? Will he sack her and risk losing a trusted ally who may be central to the harvest of a necessary war chest for the 2015 elections? Will he sack her and risk the ire and support from her and kith and kin who will think that he is playing to the wrong gallery?

It will be comforting to say that the case of Mrs Stella Oduah will test the President’s commitment to accountability and integrity of political office holders. But the administration’s record in dealing with breaches at the highest levels by loyalists is not exactly enviable. Loyalty has been a major currency in this administration. Loyalty, that is, of the President to valued allies such as Alamieyeseigha, or loyalty to the President by Ministers and senior officials. It will be difficult for the President to replace a loyal ally such as Stella Oduah at this time when he needs loyalty more than any time. For this reason, this Stella may get her groove back with a few bruises. But then, again, the President could surprise the nation.