Timbers

“The man who burns down his store of grains knows where ash is expensive.” Hausa Proverb

If you could feel pity for the People Democratic Party (PDP) there was no be better occasion for it than a few days ago when it compained over the aggressive drive by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to enlist its rebellious elements into its fold. The largest party in Africa was reduced to abusing a resurgent opposition into a territory that had been left substantially unprotected by the PDP. APC, the PDP complains, is a party of hypocrites driven by desperate and blind quest for power and not by any ideology geared towards serving the interests of the people.

Coming from any other quarter, those words will hurt an opposition which claims to be set to change the Nigerian political setting entirely. But the accusation of opportunism from a party which holds the patent to the tactic will not hurt the APC. The art of poaching, whose fine points included the PDP’s wholesale absorption of an entire state opposition literally on the eve of elections, has been the monopoly of the ruling party since 1999. It built its formidable forest of political timbers all over the country through a ruthless strategy, of decimating the opposition by poaching its best candidates, causing massive splits, enticing its best and brightest with political appointments and contracts, and an awesome grip over the electoral process. It will hurt the PDP to see the opposition turning the table on it, and it must now see itself in the unfamiliar role of the hunter being hunted.

It was interesting that APC leaders admitted that they are involved in a “ruthless recruitment drive,” during a high profile visit to Governors of Kano and Jigawa States. “Ruthless” may be an apt description for what they are involved in, at least to the extent that it appears to be hurting the PDP enough for it to cry in public. But ruthless campaigns tend to create many casualties, and victims often include the assaulting party. The campaign to entice the PDP governors off the wall into the APC camp appears to have gathered fresh momentum since the return of General Buhari from medical treatment a few weeks ago. It is also receiving fresh impetus from additional sources and developments as well. One of these is the seeming lack of any capacity for self restraint on the part of Alhaji Babanga Tukur, the PDP national chairman. Almost single-handedly, this gentlemen has been the author and the actor in a drama that could not have been written even by the PDP’s worst enemies. You would almost think that Alhaji Bamanga believes that the best strategy for Jonathan’s re-election in 2015 is to hound and abuse the nPDP governors out of the party and into the opposition.

At this stage, it is safe to assume that a real and lasting reconciliation between nPDP and Jonathan’s PDP will be impossible, even with Governor Babangida’s flip-flop. Although they say in Nigerian politics anything is possible – a most unfortunate characterization of the process which should build and develop the nation – the two camps appear to drift apart literally by the day. But this tragedy which has befallen the PDP should not be attributed to any one interest outside the party. This time last year, the two were one and the same thing, with one eye on personal ambitions and concerns for lives outside power, and the other on the opposition which today is rolling out the drums of welcome. 

The crisis in the PDP is entirely its own handiwork, and for those who look for trends and patterns, they will find them in the manner the PDP centered its entire strategy only on choosing candidates that will become President and Governors and bestow massive patronage from state resources. It is easy to forget that the nPDP governors were active players and beneficiaries of this system. They also actively worked to install President Jonathan as President in 2011. Their grouse is not over the basic philosophy or ideology of the PDP. It is not about the seeming failure of the party to arrest the creeping insecurity in the land, reduce corruption or rebuild infrastructure in the country. It is not about the alarming decline in the quality of life in the North, its decaying infrastructure and the restiveness of its tens of millions of angry, uneducated, unskilled and unemployed young people. Their best defence against the state of the North is that it is beyond their powers. Others will argue that they are partly responsible for it. 

For whatever they are worth, the APC sees the nPDP bigwigs as a major asset to take over. It is difficult to counter the excitement of its leaders over the prospect that anywhere between six and eleven additional governors, complete with nPDP factions and massive resources will join their party. As politicians, they know the value of spread, structures and financial resources. They will also know what it will mean for the their party’s prospect in 2015 when it has most of the North, the South west and a few strongholds in the South South and South East.

It will take a large dose of courage therefore to dampen that excitement with a few words of caution. Veterans of many battles with the PDP in the APC should not be shouting Hallelujah yet. First, the nPDP are not safely and finally out of Jonathan’s PDP yet. Or, to be more specific, they are not in APC’s net yet. And they have options, which may be why APC is rolling out its carpets now. They may have difficult questions that need answers before they say yes to APC. Many of the timbers in parties which merged into the APC are also wary of the future in the same boat with former bitter foes and adversaries. Their grievances cannot be dismissed out of hand, and they will require serious efforts to address. Far from being assets, the nPDP recruits can become the APC’s biggest liability if the manner they find space generates its own crises right up to 2015. Perhaps this, and only this, is the source for comfort for the PDP, especially in the North.

The PDP may not have exhausted its legendary bag of tricks against the nPDP insurrection. It has a huge reservoir of sleeper support and goodwill in many quarters in the North, which can be activated and galvanized with massive resources, to sway the nPDP from defecting out of the PDP, or joining the APC if they want to. Its capacity to intimidate dissenters and challengers using institutions of state is still a source of fear. It can make life very difficult for the nPDP people, even when they think they are in the safety of the opposition.

In the next few weeks, the Nigerian political environment will be very interesting to watch. It is important to keep in mind that nothing is settled yet. nPDP governors and Atiku could stay in the PDP and run Jonathan out, or activate a third option and deprive the APC of additional potential to pull the carpet from under PDP’s feet. The APC could absorb the nPDP and go through a massive crisis of identity as it attempts to digest a huge lump of PDP. Jonathan’s PDP could restrategise in a manner that will cause serious upheavals in nPDP states. Many timbers standing today may not be in their places in the next few months. Some would be uprooted, others will just be smaller timbers in a large forest of big timbers. All, however, will be wary of a forest fire in 2015.