A hostage economy

"You become wise when you begin to run out of money".Ghanian Proverb

A few weeks ago, President Buhari appeared in full military uniform when he visited a major military exercise in Zamfara state. The symbolism was important. The exercise was to signal the start of a major offensive against large bandit communities that had taken permanent residence in the vast stretches of forests that run through a number of states in the north, with pronounced presence in Zamfara and Kaduna States. The exercise looked impressive, and reports  later said  soldiers wrought a lot of damage on bandits who had had the run of forests, highways and farming communities for decades. A few weeks later, the bandits resurfaced, attacking villages, extorting, raping women and killing informants, vigilantes and local authorities with greater venom as they re-established their authority. Villagers abandoned homesteads, farms and animals, or adjusted to a life they had been familiar with, buying some security from bandits and submitting to horrific periodic violence as normal existence.

Our forests, ordinarily valuable assets, have been turned into major sources of threats to communities and the economy. At the height of the cattle rustling frenzy which has now decimated much of the large-scale ranching industry in the north, forests provided the cover and security needed by rustlers against a state that was too thin on the ground to take them on. A brave effort involving some state governments in the north freed rustled cattle and pushed the bandits further away, restoring some territory to the communities. Without adequate and sustained police presence and a motivated vigilante that can be freed from farming on a permanent basis, the gains made by interventions such as this were soon lost. Farming suffers as villagers are made to choose between paid protection to bandits for the  privilege to farm, or virtual starvation. Movement is severely restricted, so the low level of economic activity shrivels further. Herders stay away from these traditional sources of subsistence, and then add pressure on non-traditional sources, thus compounding existing frictions. Many villagers relocate entirely to places where they enjoy temporary physical security without means of livelihood. Where they stay put, many families move out into the bushes at night and leave homesteads for bandits when they visit.

Now there are rumours that factions and bands of Boko Haram being flushed out of forests in  Borno state  are moving into forests in other parts of the northeast which stretch all the way to Kaduna State. The damage done to the economy and millions of lives in the northeast will take a  decade to repair, even if the insurgency is effectively eliminated in the next one year. Elsewhere, from Abuja to Kaduna and Zaria and parts of Niger state, the forests  habour dens of kidnappers who have apparently graduated from rustling to kidnapping. The scales of the kidnapping industry fast catching on in the north, Its organization and sophistication are frightening. The fear of being kidnapped is taking a terrible toll on large scale farming by wealthy farmers who cannot venture a few hundred meters off highways. What was, until recently, a Fulani-on-Fulani crime involving kidnappings for guaranteed ransom to be paid from sold cattle has assumed a much bigger dimension on highways and even within towns and cities, with routine mentions of millions paid as ransom. In many other parts of the nation, movement anywhere is a risky business, and many families have paid up and retrieved kidnapped relations, ignoring police advise not to pay, or simply ignoring police entirely. Kidnapping strikes at the soft underbelly of the nation: any one who can move about is a potential victim. It makes instant millionaires out of a few criminals, and generally takes out the cumbersome nature of rustling or the dangers of armed robbery.

Our economy is becoming a hostage to violence. Much of the southeast has lived under the gun for much of the last three decades. In the south-south, violence is threatening to shut off a vital national resource in oil and gas. Crime has acquired sophisticated weaponry, boats and knowledge to destroy assets, attack military and law-enforcement agents and bring entire communities under its control. In any one week a dozen cases of killings and attacks take place in many parts of the nation's central belt. Fights involving complex motives and combatants with multiple identities rage in villages and communities. Farming is threatened as farms become dangerous to access. Cattle herders represent a threat at sight, and are threatened if they move, and threatened if they don't. Women and children become refugees while the men prepare for revenge missions, or to protect slippery victories. Military and police break up fights, and then become part of the problem as many of the combatants accuse them of taking sides. Everyone is armed, and there does not appear to be any signs that supplies of firearms will dry up. Local industries which illegally fabricate crude but effective weapons are booming. Manufacturers now fight the state for the privilege to continue supplies unhindered.

It is now clear that our economy has also  been largely hostage  to complacency, greed and corruption. Freeing it from deep seated corruption, rent-seeking and dangerously-narrow foundations and placing it on a stronger footing will involve massive dislocations and difficult choices in an environment that is politically unforgiving.  Managing the economic crises arising from the crash in revenues and the attempts to destroy the infrastructure in the oil and gas industry is challenging enough for any administration. Fighting a war against Boko Haram and a full-scale onslaught on destructive bands in the Niger Delta will severely stretch the capabilities of the government. Ideally, the  on-going discussions with armed militants should be pursued until they reach a productive outcome. The state should have other options, nonetheless, and they should include containment strategies that limit the damage to national assets in the event that the nation cannot afford the price of peace with militants. It is reasonable to expect that very close attention is being paid to the current state of the crisis at leadership levels of Boko Haram and the current thinking within the Shiite movement in Nigeria. The Nigerian state needs to be steps ahead of these threats, and improve its response capabilities in relating with them. The three million IDPs who are hostages to activities of  the insurgency, poverty and corruption should be the focus of serious concern. Major initiatives need to be taken by governments to empower states ,communities and their traditional structures to improve security management at local levels. Substantial investments in thinking and resources need to be made to address major sources of frictions among and between communities. Basic policing needs to be literally re-invented in Nigeria.

Violence is becoming a major factor in the manner Nigerians relate with each other and the state. Of all the key requirements necessary for economic reconstruction, growth and development today, none is more important than radical improvements in the security of producers, investors and economic assets. Nigerians can  live with poverty, but a poor and insecure life will call to question the basic value of the Nigerian state in the minds of many citizens. That is a threshold we must take very seriously at a time when many talk glibly about the utility and relevance of our union.