2017: An optimist's nightmare.

In its first full year in charge, 2016, the Buhari administration registered a major success in fighting the Boko Haram insurgency and signaled a determination to fight endemic corruption. During the year, however, just about every index for judging the success of an administration that had raised massive expectations will be solidly in the negative. A combination of obvious success in the fight against the insurgency and pronounced failures to shield the citizenry from the effects of an economy in deep recession will be of some comfort to an optimistic  projection, the type that starts on the assumption that things couldn't  possibly be worse in 2017 than they were in 2016.Sadly for the country and the administration, there is no solid basis for this assumption. In spite of the evidence of  strong will, it is evident that much of what the administration requires to make a major difference are  vaguely-articulated, poorly-supported by strong institutions and processes, and deeply contingent on a political environment that is not being well-managed. In 2017, President Buhari will have an opportunity to reverse a perception  of poor management of an economy in deep recession and convince Nigerians and the global community that the nation is secure and safe for citizens and foreign investment respectively. It will be a  make-or-break year, because 2018 will be mostly about the elections of 2019.

The reported success of the military in capturing the last stronghold of Boko Haram in Sambisa forest represents a major achievement for the administration. The challenges beyond this major milestone are going to demand the same level of political will to deal with, and massive resources to sustain the fight and deal with the horrendous humanitarian crises that the insurgency has spawned. The capacities of the military and intelligence services will be challenged to design strategies for dealing with an insurgency that could mutate, adopt strategies suitable to a threat without captive territory or survive as low intensity conflict that will frustrate the speed of recovery, resettlement and rehabilitation. The military will need to maintain presence and vigilance and improve liaison with the military and intelligence services in neighboring countries. The Nigerian military will be stretched to provide essential service in many other areas such as the Niger Delta, numerous outfits designed to secure or preserve peace, as well as areas of emerging threats such as Southern Kaduna and extensive forests that are providing cover for crimes such banditry, cattle rustling and kidnapping. Without a radical improvement in policing capacities and a willingness to explore options to the use of force in dealing with many internal security challenges, Nigerians will be exposed to serious threats to lives and livelihood in 2017.

The administration will need to examine the value of engaging the Shia in charting a course towards a peaceful co-existence between a faith and a nation founded on laws. The  current stand-off amounts to an escalation of a conflict with frightening implications. The commitment of President  Buhari's administration to the rule of law will be tested by the manner his government responds to judicial orders such as those related to release of leader of the Shia. Real dialogue with armed groups destroying oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta will have to involve more than the high profile Dialogue Committee which currently says it represents the communities in the region. The administration's political presence in the South East will need to be strengthened to effectively engage or isolate the threat of IPOB. Significantly, the tendency to consign security issues to judicial custody should be discouraged, and, in 2017,the administration will have to improve its capacities to deal with threats with imagination, decisiveness and an awareness of the intimate linkages between politics and national security.

Managing national security under multiple challenges and an economy that is unlikely to operate with marked improvements in 2017 will sharpen popular perceptions regarding the Buhari administration. In spite of improvements in the price of crude towards the end of 2016,the price in 2017 is unlikely to rise well beyond current levels. Export levels will still be affected by the activities of armed groups and the success of the signaled intention of the administration to engage these groups in dialogue to stop sabotage of assets. Nigerians will blame the administration for rising cost of living, in spite of attempts that will continue to be made to blame the past for the state of the economy. More stringent demands will continue to be made for better policies and quality of Ministers and key officials. By the end of 2017,Nigerians will largely have made up their minds regarding the competence of President  Buhari in managing the economy. It is unlikely that beyond the hardest core of his supporters, many Nigerians will accept excuses and apologies over rising levels of poverty.

The administration will also be challenged to prove that its anti-corruption campaigns have yielded more than a  list of people facing trials against corruption. Nigerians will use convictions, forfeitures  used to mitigate revenue shortfalls, evidence that the campaign recognizes no partisan boundaries as well as the  outcome of the investigations of high-ranking officials which the President has just ordered to judge the impact of the anti corruption campaigns. The pressure for immediate gratification could divert attention from painstaking and substantive institutional and other reforms that should reduce the nation's vulnerability to corruption in the long run. The National Assembly could be a major asset or an obstacle to the fight against corruption, depending on the manner legislators perceive their interests and their fates in the 2019 elections.

The politician in President Buhari will be severely challenged in 2017.He does not appear to have paid much attention to the state of his party, the APC, and the next few months will reveal how much damage has been done to an election-winning coalition if many pillars on which it rests relocate ambitions or re-design strategies, leaving his charisma, now interrogated by the challenges of exercising power, badly exposed. On the whole, it could be said that history, and a seeming reluctance to push the frontiers for change have combined to suggest that the administration is unlikely to break many new grounds in 2017.But then again, President Buhari could manage adversity to make history again. If he will, he will have to make 2017 the year to make a real start.