The
year 2021 is very likely to be one with the dubious distinction of entirely
carrying over the problems of the year before it, and doing so with
considerably worse results. Its outlook is likely to disappoint millions who
think the year 2020 was the modern world’s worst nightmare. It was the
beginning of a nightmare, but 2021 is very likely to bear the major imprints
and character of 2020.If humanity is to make 2021 better than 2020, it will
have to have prepared well to deal with the impact of COVID-19 as it caught a
completely unprepared world. The global community and all nations have to
improve responses to the pandemic and adjust to its impact on social and
economic relations, as well as prepare to deal with a phenomenon that will
remain with mankind for the next few years. In addition, routine life has to be
sustained, albeit in a new context that will show the normal in substantially
different form. The most successful strategy for all nations will be
designed by an informed understanding of new challenges, identification
of realistic priorities and mobilization of resources to achieve them.
For Nigeria, the year will be difficult. The
combination of a depressed economy, impact of the virus on social relations,
lives and livelihood; insecurity and governance challenges should demand a
regime of disciplined and focussed policy initiatives, management of resources
and innovative approaches to dealing with major problems in familiar and new
contexts. At all cost, the temptation to run the economy and basic governance
policies along familiar lines should be avoided. Strong political will, fresh
ideas and a sense of urgency and mission are needed by leaders to pull the
country through a period that could worsen the precarious state of the nation’s
political economy. These will be some of the issues that should be prioritized.
1. Governance and administration.
President
Muhammadu Buhari’s disposition and approach to governance is central to the
success or failure of the nation to avoid deeper crises. The quality of his
administration particularly in the areas of security and economic management
will need to be substantially improved. It cannot improve unless he assumes
firmer control over the decision-making process, a willingness to address
issues, personnel and policies that require changing to improve effectiveness
and accountability, and an awareness of his place in history. He has two years
to turn the tide of decline and hopelessness that are becoming the hallmarks of
his administration. Legislators at the federal level will need to raise their
levels of accountability to the people they represent and utilize their powers
to improve the quality of governance.
State governors and legislators still have huge powers and resources to make
real difference in the lives of citizens. They should lead with a new sense of
purpose and re-order their priorities to address poverty, insecurity and development
of social and economic infrastructure. All leaders should attach great emphasis
to restoring trust and faith of the people in authorities. The fight to limit
the damage of the virus cannot be won unless citizens are involved in a context
that makes them willing stakeholders. All governments must assume direct
responsibility and deploy resources towards fighting this pandemic and
mitigating its damaging consequences on the population.
2. Public spending, managing the
economy
The design of federal and state 2021 budgets do not suggest an awareness of the need to operate outside the old normal. Substantially, all budgets have followed traditional patterns, except for noticeable increases or reductions reflecting anticipated revenues. The federal budget in particular sustains its fiction around anticipated revenues and the crippling tendency to allocate resources in a manner that guarantees that they will not be released or used productively if released. All budgets need to be re-visited with the objectives of establishing priorities that are informed by current and future realities.
Key
concerns should be sustaining basic economic activities, mitigating the effects
of COVID-19 pandemic (including provision of preventive and curative support
for all segments of the population), providing support to the most needy,
building of social and economic infrastructure and payment of wages. Executing
or supporting the fight against pervasive insecurity should be a national
priority that should be supported with substantial resources. The federal
budget in particular should substantially improve allocations to defence and
security, education, poverty mitigation, fighting the scourge of the virus and
funding vital infrastructure. The scope available to the private sector to
contribute to design of basic economic policy should be improved. Sustaining
current employment levels and regular payment of wages is vital. Management of
anti-poverty programmes needs to be made more transparent and accountable. Close
attention should be paid to food security because of its relationship with
insecurity.
3. Security
The threats to state and citizen security have been increasing, and they will become worse in 2021 as armed criminals take up more space and from the state. Leadership of defence, security and public safety institutions have proved incapable of stemming the tide, and the clamour for major changes at leadership levels of these institutions will intensify. President Buhari should accept to undertake large-scale changes in management of security and public safety institutions not only because there are good reasons behind the demand, but because this is vital to re-engineer public faith and confidence in them. Funding and expansion in numbers and capabilities should be accorded the highest priority, and current allocation in 2021 budget should be improved. Policing has been made worse by the effects of the #EndSARS protests, and it is vital that its most important challenges are addressed with minimum delay. Constitutional amendments should be put in place to provide for regional and state police.
The fight against Boko Haram has taken another major casualty from Nigeria: its territorial integrity. Regional cooperation in this fight should be re-invented, and the administration should re-assess border security and the movement of persons and weapons into the country as a matter of great urgency. The single track strategy of fighting the nation’s multiple threats needs an informed re-assessment. Options which exist in dealing with threats and conflicts should be explored. Banditry in particular has a potential for being productively engaged, and the insurgency itself needs to be re-assessed in terms of the degree to which it is amenable to political resolution.
4. Education
Federal government’s universities have gone through a routine, painful ritual during which a largely indifferent government and universities that are run by inept labour unionists rather that academics flex muscles over money. This edition of the ASUU strike is over, but universities are unlikely to resume full activities without substantially compromising the safety and health of their communities. Education as a whole requires huge investment in technology to prepare it to operate under the demanding conditions of the pandemic. Funding of universities also needs massive and sustained improvement which should start from 2021.A critical segment of young Nigerians’ only access to an uncertain future is public university education. The nation must improve funding and quality of the education available to its young if it is to reduce the rising tide of bitterness and alienation among its future generation.
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