Dangerous maneuvers.

“If you do not want to relate or be touched, do not go to the market”. African proverb.

By the time you read this material the fire lit in Ondo  and Oyo States in the last few weeks would be smoldering  or lighting up other fires. A lot, at this stage, depends on responses of many people with responsibility to pull back the nation from a major crisis. The stakes are very high, and many of the key players have played their hands in a manner that leaves them very little room for maneuver. Events have moved at frightening speed since the killings in Oyo State and the ultimatum in Ondo State, and it will be difficult to undo some of the damage that has been done.

Even setting out a background to these latest assaults on the stressed foundations of the country is now hostage to entrenched parochial interests. The one version I am comfortable with says the governments and people of Oyo and Ondo States, like all Nigerians, have been increasingly worried over escalating incidents of kidnappings and banditry, most of them attributed to armed Fulani criminals. A few weeks ago, Amotekun operatives reportedly killed members of a Fulani family. Everything about the killings has been hotly disputed, except evidence of the killings itself and actual victims. The State governor, Commissioner of Police, Alafin of Oyo, Amotekun leaders, Fulani communities and groups, prominent locals, ethnic champions and social media influencers all weighed in on the killings, making investigations and establishment of facts and bringing the law to bear on the situation virtually impossible.

In the case of Ondo State the Governor met with representatives of Fulani communities and then issued them a week’s notice to vacate a forest reserve in the State. Here too, the trigger was suspicion that the forest habours criminal Fulani who are barely distinguishable from their kith and kin, Fulani headers. Fulani herders, although more familiar to communities all over Nigeria are not entirely without their own mountain of sins, and are now widely suspected of harbouring and providing cover for their criminal elements as well. Governor Akeredolu’s quit notice was precisely the type of action that will instantly attract overwhelming, popular endorsement, and politicians will do virtually anything for it these days. Murmurs of protests rose, and were met by a stout defence of the legal basis of the governor’s action. When President’s spokesman, Garba Shehu stepped in with his charges of unconstitutionality of the decision and a lot of fancy words which appeared to suggest that the basic rights of the Fulani community had been violated and should be restored  by rescinding the quit order, the murmurs became an  uproar denouncing President Buhari for habouring people like Malam Garba Shehu, for  being insensitive to the plight of ordinary Yoruba  citizens, for  backing his Fulani kith and kin and a lot more in a noisy reactions guaranteed to set ethnic blood boiling. Groups representing northern interests warned of dangers of the type of action being taken by leaders in the West, and these were met by more defiant rhetorics reminiscent of situations where entire populations were being prepared to be engaged in a war.

That, more or less, was where the nation stood until the meeting involving Governors of States in the South West, two from the North and Miyetti Allah on Monday 25th.From all appearances, the meeting was intended as a major damage control initiative, but the nation must wait a while to see if it succeeds in controlling any damage, and whose damage it controls. First, those who expected that the meeting will break grounds around the issue of the welfare and future of Fulani communities in Yorubaland will have to look hard to see if assurances that Fulani are welcome in the West, banning open grazing, night grazing and mandatory registration for all Fulani will restore a healthy  balance between host authorities and Fulani communities who have been shaken by a combination of popular hostility and governments seeking to reap from it. If Fulani stay put as they will most certainly do, even with additional conditions and restrictions, those who have sympathy for them will read a little victory. If threats and attacks cease and enforcers retreat, Fulani and their sympathizers will celebrate surviving a major scare. If Fulani rebuild relations with host communities and police their settlements against bandits and kidnappers to the satisfaction of host authorities, there could be hope of a near-total recovery of the space lost by good relations between communities in the South West.

There are sound reasons why there are many ‘ifs’ here. Governors have lit a fire that will burn up more of their standing in their States. There will be many  influencers  that will pass the word around that Yoruba governors have capitulated and Fulani have won this round and will resume normal activities which, in this case, include banditry and kidnapping. Somehow, the impression that the South West must be a no-go area for Fulani or nothing appears to have taken root in the midst of all the heat and passion generated recently. People like Sunday Igboho (and there are quite a few of them) have tapped a strong, popular sentiment that Yoruba security and dignity are at stake on this particular Fulani matter. The idea that a Yoruba nation can stand up against Buhari’s pampered Fulani and win, and then move on to other victories has deep roots in millions of minds. The distance between politicians who decide their own boundaries around this problem and folks who prefer to listen to local champions has widened spectacularly. Politicians, from Tinubu to governors and all others whose voices have not been heard to say what the rabble wants to hear are in very serious trouble.

This is why the Governors’ solution will not be sufficient to provide the type of assurances everyone needs to feel that justice and commonsense have prevailed. Governors will be hard put to stop communities seeking to enforce the lines drawn by them around the Fulani. Sunday Igboho still walks around in spite of orders to arrest him, a shouting testimony to the existence of severe limitations which Governors have. If police cannot, or will not arrest Igboho, and killers of Fulani in Oyo State are still at large, and youth who destroy Fulani settlements are roaming free, who will protect Fulani if enforcers or entire communities feel that Governors have not leaned hard enough on the Fulani? Governors, local communities and Fulani can try , but they will not stop banditry and kidnappings. Northern Governors and communities from which these elements deflected into violent crimes know this. Fulani in the West will be at the mercy  of bandits and kidnappers’ activities, and local communities and enforcers  will not leave them in peace if they continue to connect them will criminals.

Ultimately, the federal government has to be more actively involved in deepening the foundations of co-existence between Fulani and host communities. It is difficult to see a continuation of the practice of herding across the length and breadth of the country with the type of spreading hostility generated around Fulani herders. A serious federal government will have to engage all major stakeholders in security and the future of the national assets which livestock represent. It should be a matter of extreme urgency that federal and Northern Governments invest in large scale ranching in parts of the North. Until that is done, the Fulani herder will remain a roaming threat to himself and national security.