Steve said so

“His indecision is final” Anon.

Most people who have no familiarity with the inner workings of President Jonathan’s administration may be surprised that Dr Doyin Okupe virtually repeated the passionate denunciation by Steven Oronsaye, of the Report of the Petroleum Revenue Special Task Force headed by Malam Nuhu Ribadu during its  presentation. Mr Oronsaye who said “so what?” to the President’s demand for the report to be presented right before the same President, had lambasted the timing of the submission, conclusions and recommendations of a Report he had no hand in writing but could have if he had wanted. He did not participate in deliberations of the Report, and did not write a Minority Report if he disagreed with majority views and recommendations. But he had enough muscle to publicly and emphatically discredit a Report put together by highly respected Nigerians on a very sensitive issue. The President, whose demand to receive the Report Steve said need not have been complied with, saw nothing wrong with an obvious attempt by an absentee – member to perform  a hatchet job on the work of many others. Even before he had seen the Report, Steven Oronsaye had told him and the world that the Committee’s work was incomplete and its recommendations suspect. Anyone who knew how much power Steve packs in his punches in this administration would have known from that melodrama that Malam Nuhu Ribadu and his colleagues on the committee have wasted their time.

Now Dr Okupe says it officially: he described the report as “jumbled and fumbled.” He says it has been destroyed by the committee itself when it said in its “obvious disclaimer” that it could not verify some of the data. That statement, says Okupe has rendered it severely defective and unenforceable. The presidential spokesman says the committee has left the most important of its task to the same federal government which set it up to complete. Without further work on the report, Dr Okupe says" it will be impossible to indict or punish anybody.” As for Malam Nuhu Ribadu, Dr Okupe says he has contributed to “public disinformation” around the report.

The Presidency could have chosen to hold back its spoiler in Steven Oronsaye, receive the report, and then go public with its shortcomings, including those its says were forced upon it by lack of time. It could also have received the report, thanked the members, and made the best use of it, in spite of its imperfections. But it did not. Mr Oronsaye wanted to flag off a serious  discrediting mission against the report, which was basically about recoveries of amounts fraudulently paid, withheld or stolen from revenues. Either the presidency could not hold back Mr Oronsaye from his mission, or it wanted him to cast the first and fatal stone. It could also have given the report to Steve after receipt, so that he can say what he wanted done with it. After all, he was member of the committee, although he did not participate in its work; he is on the Board of the NNPC and the Central Bank of Nigeria; he chaired the committee on rationalization of government parastatals and agencies; and he is generally regarded as the one-man-think tank of the administration.

The official statement that a report on recoveries has no reliable data will render the committee's work useless. If government could   “verify” data relating to illegal or irregular payments and deductions, including those involving the NNPC where Steven Oronsaye (and his one fellow dissenter) serve as Board member and Director respectively, why would it have been compelled by public opinion to appoint a committee to do so?

The way things stand, it will be virtually impossible to salvage anything of value from the Nuhu Ribadu report. Alarm bells should also begin to sound around the work of two other committees appointed to look into the structure of the oil industry and operations. This is the kind of conclusion which Dr Okupe complains are put out as “major public disinformation deliberately calculated to overheat the polity and cause opprobrium against the President for doing what is right, what is needful and profitable for the nation.”

Words like these will not stop Nigerians raising questions regarding the sincerity of the administration to plug massive loopholes which allow corruption to drain our resources in the oil and gas sector. If it pains Dr Okupe that President Jonathan is unable to turn the tide of cynicism over his sincerity or capacity to tackle waste and corruption in the sector, he could take a little time to look inwards. He may find answers in the decision of the President to appoint a man to serve on  a committee whose work will intensely scrutinize the NNPC, then appoint the same man to the Board of the same NNPC, without asking him to leave the committee. He could find answers in appointing a man to both the Board of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the NNPC, two organs of government which have represented the biggest sources of friction between the executive and the legislature over budgets. He could find answers in appointing a man into the Boards of the NNPC, CBN, the Nuhu Ribadu Committee, and then as Chairman of a Committee to advise on the fate of hundreds of parastatals and agencies of government. He could find answers in the manner he appoints the same man into the most sensitive positions, many with potentials for conflict of interest, including his own interest. He could find answers in the manner serious issues are being raised in the manner government ministers are feuding over how to handle importers alleged to have diverted huge amounts under a highly fraudulent subsidy regime. He could find answers in the dithering over the P.I.B, or even in the unseemingly-intimitate relationship between extremely wealthy and powerful businessmen and this administration.

It is very likely that many Nigerians will believe that President Goodluck Jonathan is a good man who means well for Nigeria. Many others also sympathize with the fact many of the problems he is having to deal with have their roots in previous administrations. But he will not get sympathy over the type of people he trusts to help him work. The fiasco which he sat calmly and observed involving Mr Steven Oronsaye and one other against other members of a committee he had appointed to do a good job reflected very badly on him. He cannot wash his hands clean of people like Mr Oronsaye, and no damage control strategies can alter the perception that he has very powerful people who continuously muddle his waters.

Boryobe Republic

“People in temper often say a lot of silly, terrible things that they really mean.” P. Gilliatt

A national newspaper on Sunday November 11^th headlined with a story in which the Borno State Commissioner for Information, Mr Inuwa Bwala claimed that the federal government has abandoned the people of the state. The Commissioner told The Nation newspaper that no federal political office holder had visited the state either to assess the security situation, or to symphasise with the state government and its people. The paper said he complained that the President and his Vice have refused to come to the state to boost the morale of the people, or to show that they care and remind the people of the state that they are part and parcel of Nigeria. “We have been left on our own. For some time, nobody has shown that they really care, nobody has visited to show solidarity with us,” he said. Although a team made up of the National Security Adviser, (NSA) and Chief of Defence Staff had visited, the Commissioner said the people of the state have been left on their own, “as if we are not part of Nigeria. That has been our grouse against the federal government.”

For a spokesman of a government which has walked the tightrope of supporting agents of the federal government and dealing with the consequences of their activities while exposed to the now patently-partisan assaults of the Jamaatu Ahlil Sunnah Diddawati Waj Jihad (JASLIWAJ) (a.k.a. Boko Haram) this public outcry against the neglect of the state by the federal government is bound to make its mark. The cry against seeming insensitivity and neglect by the highest public office holders, one of whom is a northerner will sound even louder against claims by the same commissioner that Borno State is functioning pretty much normally. He said markets and banks open, workers go to work, economic activities go on, flights come and go fully booked everyday.

Perhaps the Commissioner was lost over what issues he wanted to raise in a rare opportunity to dispel the impression that Borno and Yobe State have been virtually grounded by the JASLIWAJ insurgency, or as he claimed, by criminals and political assassins who have hijacked the cause of the insurgency. He was doing the job of an image maker, but he was doing it badly. If life in Borno is virtually normal, what is there to complain over the failure of President Jonathan or Vice President Namadi Sambo to visit? How can things be normal in a state where being a prominent ANPP member is a virtual death sentence, and in which even the recent assassination of General Muhammadu Shuwa is speculatively linked with partisan interests?

The attempt to create the image of normalcy will do great injury to reality, and the life and circumstances of the vast majority of the population which lives particularly in Borno and Yobe States. These circumstances under which millions of Nigeria citizens and thousands of soldiers, policemen and other security personnel live in these two states ought to have impressed upon the President the need to visit and commiserate with them.

It has been nothing short of bewildering that President Jonathan has not been able to visit Borno and/or Yobe States all this while. The Commander-In-Chief of the Nigerian Armed Forces can demand near-perfect cover and protection to visit Maiduguri, even if he will be limited to the airport. No one believes that the airport is unsafe for the President to land and take off any more. He could summon the entire State Executive Council, Council of Chiefs, Commanders of the JTF, community leaders civil society groups and even school children to Maiduguri airport to meet with them, in case his security advisers caution him against driving into Maiduguri.

If the President is advised that Borno State is so unsafe that he cannot visit under any arrangement, then  the war and the circumstances of the existence of the people in Borno and Yobe needs to be fully reassessed. It should not be lost on the administration that the dispatch of a Minister to condole the people of Borno State over the assassination of General Muhammadu Shuwa has been very poorly received by most people. Why, for instance, couldn’t the President himself, or the Vice President, lead a delegation to show sympathy and concern over the loss of a genuine elder statesman whose murder has tremendous symbolism for this war?

By the day, the life of people in Yobe and Borno States is becoming more imperiled. The cry for help from fellow citizens in the region is responded to with more violence from both sides. Their elders and leaders have cried to the high heavens against high-handedness; and have been routinely reminded that they are the key to finding solutions to the very problems they complain over. They have seen an uprising blossom into a sophisticated insurgency, consuming their young people, their social structure, economy and civilization. Their young either join the insurgency, or pay the price for it as perennial suspects, or targets of bullets and arrests. Citizens run between the JTF and an insurgency which is deeply embedded in their communities, and live with endemic fear of both. State governments cannot protect them. The federal government is the JTF, at every doorstep with finger on triggers, and suspicious of everyone. Well-to-do people migrate in droves by the day. Politicians are targeted and shot, and rich people who choose to stay are rumoured to pay for protection.

Participants who attended the North East Summit on Peace and Security a few weeks ago were bemused by the drama which surrounded the insertion of a sentence in the address of the convener, Alhaji Bello Kirfi, which said that the people of the north east region may consider leaving the federation altogether owing to a feeling of being abandoned by the rest of Nigeria. Frantic efforts were made to distance the forum from the statement, which was “withdrawn” by the author. Which was just as well, because a forum of that nature has no mandate, legitimacy or credibility to decide the future of the beleaguered people of Borno, Yobe and neighboring states. What it could have done, in the light of a revealing mindset from an elder statesman who had given his entire life to the service of his nation, was to devote the whole event to discussing strategies on how to reclaim Borno and Yobe State, and integrate them into the rest of the nation. Many people in that hall must know that most people in Yobe and Borno feel abandoned, whether it was said so or not at the forum.

Millions of citizens in Borno and Yobe States are caught up in a destructive stalemate. There are no peace-making initiatives in sight; and no evidence that either the state or the insurgency will win this war soon. They have missed out on the recent hearings on how the constitution of Nigeria should be amended. They see their President visit flood victims, commission projects in States, or summon elders in states feuding over oil wells to settle them. Their only contact with the Federal Republic of Nigeria is the JTF. They should be forgiven for thinking that they live in a different country, where violence alone determines how they live or die. The flicker of hope that a negotiating offer has been put out by the insurgency has now been snuffed by genuine doubt and deep suspicious that the crisis is being manipulated for narrow, selfish ends. This failure should spur other credible Nigerians, particularly those from the North to step up and come to the relief of millions of fellow Nigerians who are living under intolerable conditions.

Peace makers, mischief makers

“I must follow them. I am their leader.” A. B. Law 

Not surprisingly, General Muhammadu Buhari’s party and allies have expressed reservations over the possibility that he will accept the nomination to mediate between them the JASLIWAJ (a.k.a Boko Haram) insurgency and the government. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) says the PDP created Boko Haram, and will use Buhari’s acceptance to mediate as evidence that he is the sponsor of the insurgency.

It can safely be assumed that this is General Buhari’s final position on this matter. If, therefore, the JASLIWAJ genuinely does have a spokesman who nominates mediators for government, and the group, and then lists preconditions for the talks, he will by now know that the insurgency has to look for a replacement for General Buhari. It is not clear what the reactions of the other people nominated will be; although it is safe to assume that they will all have some very difficult questions to ask, and quite possibly some concerns regarding perceptions over their qualifications to mediate, or chances for success.

Many cynics were quick to dismiss the genuiness of the claim by the insurgency that it is now ready to negotiate, and that it has confidence in a number of Nigerians to broker some talks with the government. In the light of the evidence that the insurgents were intensifying activities in Damaturu, Potiskum and Maiduguri, many people thought the Saudi Arabia angle was a ploy by the government to cause disaffection within the insurgency, or create the impression that it was making progress in its search for peace. The battles between the insurgency and security agencies have never been more intense or bitter, and from all appearances, the two sides are locked in a no-win situation. The international observer community and media are raising voices over horrendous crimes they claim are being committed by both sides. Prominent politicians from the region are reliving the bitter feuds between the ANPP and PDP which provided the roots of the insurgency in the days when it was made up to young clerics, idealists and political muscle.

So, in addition to the context of the offer to talk, the timing is also suspicious. Except for State governments, it would appear that the JTF has completely alienated the entire community’s support from it. A few functionaries of government whisper into the ears of the JTF some words of caution in the manner it relates with the community, and then says publicly that it is doing a good job. PDP Senators and ANPP big-wigs accuse each other of being active sponsors of the insurgency. In the meantime, bombs go off, bullets find targets and young men are arrested and taken away.

In the midst of this escalation, the offer of peace talks from the insurgency will suggest that it is feeling the heat more than the government. The devil in this assumption is in the details. First, the demands for restitution, rehabilitation and reconstruction are not new, or impossible to meet. The question is whether these should happen before, during or as outcomes of the talks? There is also the demand for release of all detained members; humane treatment, feeding of detainees, the rights for visitation and worship and cessation of molestation of wives. Detention of children and women held in lieu of husbands should not even constitute an item for discussion at a peace talk: if they are being held, they must be released immediately and unconditionally. There is also the tricky demand for the prosecution of the former Governor of Borno State Ali Modu Sheriff, a man who curries a lot of favour from the administration and is covered in many political layers.

The real problem is with the demand that all detainees must be released, presumably before talks are held. Almost certainly, government will be advised against releasing all detainees by security agencies, battling and losing men by the day. They will also advise government against letting go its trump card, particularly when dealing with an insurgency that places very high premium on the welfare and freedom of its members. Of course, some negotiated, staggered releases of detainees can be arranged; but government will demand commensurate concessions from an insurgency whose credibility lies in its sustained capacity to fight the state. What will the insurgency give in return?

But by far the most questionable aspect of the offer to talk is the inclusion of General Muhammadu Buhari among the people who the insurgency wants to negotiate for it. Given the persistent claims and perceptions in many official and quasi-official quarters that the General somehow has a hand either in the origin or current dimension of this insurgency, it is difficult to believe that this offer will be accepted by him. If indeed the offer was made by the JASLIWAJ, it shows a poor understanding of the Nigerian political situation. Even assuming that the General will put aside his considerable political antenna which advises against unpopular and risky ventures to take up the assignment, how will it affect his ambition to either lead this nation in future, or facilitate the emergence of a leadership that will radically differ from the PDP administration? Does he share or accept the vision and strategy of the insurgency? If he does not, how much justice is he likely to do to its cause? If he declines to take up a questionable offer to mediate, the administration or the insurgency, or both, will accuse him of refusing to help when asked.

It is altogether easier to believe that the nomination of General Buhari to broker peace talks between JASLIWAJ and government is either the product of poor judgment or outright mischief. If someone thought that linking the General with the insurgency in a manner which suggests that he has some credibility with or influence over it will damage his standing, they are also guilty of some very lazy thinking. His personal qualities of integrity and honesty are not in doubt; but he has not availed Nigerians of his detailed thinking on the philosophy, tactics and goals of the insurgency. What is clear is that if he had won the 2007 or 2011 presidential elections, he would have had the unenviable task of protecting the Nigerian constitution, a document and a symbol which the insurgency repudiates.

In spite of all the shortcomings of the purported offer of the JASLIWAJ, it serves as a reminder that prominent politicians and other citizens, and the leaders of the muslim community have not played as effective a role in mediating this conflict as they should. Northern and Muslim leaders have let their people down very badly, to the extent that they sit in their comfort and relative security waiting for JASLIWAJ or government to ask them to get involved in mediating. General Buhari is a highly respected Nigerian. There must be other Nigerians like him. Why do they need Boko Haram or the government to invite them to broker peace?

We are at war

“History is littered with wars which everybody knew would never happen.” Enoch Powell

An uprising by followers of a young preacher followed altercations with police and authorities about five years ago in Yobe and Borno States. The leaders of the uprising, leaders of the community and politicians involved in this uprising were well known to each other, and had been partly spawned by bitter partisan politics between the ANPP and PDP in the Borno and Yobe States. The vast majority of the followers of late Yusuf Muhammad believed they were involved in a venture that will purify their communities and their faith of imperfections, abuse and corruption; or least create enclaves where they can live their lives as good Muslims. Many were well-educated in western and Islamic knowledge, and quite a few were attending schools and universities. Some of their leaders had been exposed to partisan politics, and had received promises that politicians would support their passion for improved sensitivity by the state to the demands of the Islamic faith on Muslims. Many others had been armed, funded, or supported in one form or the other against oppositions in the past.

That uprising, the twin product of naivety and overconfidence on the part of Yusuf and his followers; and tragic failure of the state to react to it in a manner guaranteed to contain and eliminate it and its sources, blew up into the present insurgency. Security agents of the Nigerian state, with experiences from Zaki Biam, Odi, Kano and some parts of the Niger Delta, as well as a mentality of “peace-keeping” in parts of Africa where brute force alone made impact, tore into the uprising, killing hundreds and murdering its leaders. They demolished mosques, homes and lives, and retreated in the confidence that they had solved the problem. A few voices were raised against heavy-handedness and killings of innocent people which were all duly denied. The local community buried its dead. Followers of Yusuf who survived run away, and like all Nigerians, heard and watched the gruesome murder of their leaders as reported by a foreign television network many months after the events.

Yusuf’s supporters regrouped, more bitter and better organized. Their former political godfathers became their targets, and every agent of the Nigerian state became the enemy. The community watched as more and more of their young defied parental and social restraints to join a growing movement that promised to make them heroes in this world, and martyrs in the eyes of Allah. The State responded by flooding communities with soldiers and policemen, and an insurgency grew out of the inability of the state to defeat it totally, as well as the tendency of the JTF treat the entire community as the enemy.

Key turning points were missed in the course of the development of this uprising into an insurgency, with which the nation is now at war. Reported overtures at negotiations by the insurgency were dismissed by an administration which was convinced that it could crush it. Efforts by people with credibility to negotiate were scuttled by people who quite possibly benefitted more from its continuation than from ending it. Spectacular successes by the insurgency and its persistent efforts to undermine sensitive ethno-religious faultlines drew attention of the international community, which generally advised against evident strong-arm strategies, and in favour of negotiated settlements. Demands by community leaders that security agents should be restrained from offending the basic rights of citizens were dismissed as exaggerated falsehood from the very people who haboured and nurtured the insurgency.

As the insurgency grew, more and more breaches to national security began to be registered using its franchise. Some attacks were blamed on people other than the insurgents. There were allegations that subversives were attempting to pitch muslims against christians in a war with partisan political objectives. Claims were being made that the incredible amounts being spent around national security, a lot of it specifically on fighting the insurgency, will make it difficult to defeat it. Security agencies fell over each other competing for resources and attention, and the war has taken as casualty a Minister of Defence, a National Security Adviser and one or two Senators and a former Governor who are being investigated or prosecuted.

The epicenter of the battles shows all the scars of a bitter war. Hundreds of thousands of the civilian population have relocated. The economy in Borno and Yobe States has all but collapsed, and Kano, Kaduna, Bauchi, Gombe and Adamawa State are being crippled by the day. Thousands of young men have died, or are in detention. Hundreds of soldiers and other security agents have died, and many more have been injured. Prominent politicians, civil servants and community leaders are being shot in broad daylight, and they have no hiding place. Citizens are have no privacy, rights or security as they are searched, humiliated or taken away by security agents. Bodies are deposited at morgues without explanations, and citizens live in fear of both the Joint Task Force (JTF) and the Jamaatu Ahlil Sunnah Lid Diawati Wal Jihad (JASLIWAJ). Politicians trade blames, and every now and then, the deep roots of this conflict in partisan politics are exposed. International media and monitoring groups say horrific crimes against the civilian population are being committed. Government says it is not involved. By any standard of judgment, our military is fighting a bitter war, and both sides are taking no prisoners.

Now this uprising which exploded into a seemingly intractable insurgency has taken the life of General Muhammadu Shuwa, a man who successfully contributed in the execution of the Nigerian civil war. Amnesty International says the Nigerian security agencies are involved in extra-judicial killings, and the activities of the JASLIWAJ will qualify for being crimes against humanity. A spokesman of the JASLIWAJ claims that he has the authority of the insurgency to offer to negotiate, but makes pre-conditions for the negotiations virtually impossible to accept by government. It is also doubtful if those nominated by the insurgents will accept to participate in the search for settlement on its behalf. Security advisers are unlikely to advise President Jonathan to release all detained suspects as a precondition for talks.

Our nation is at war, and has long forfeited the legal luxury of declaring it to be so. The way it has developed to this stage, it will be difficult to assume that either the government or the insurgency will win this war. Government is more likely to intensify doing things the same way it did them before: return fire, and lean hard on the community to fight an insurgency which is intricately interwoven with it. The insurgency will draw inspiration from its success in pinning down the might of the Nigeria state; and the progress it is making in creating hostility against the agents of the state in the communities. Huge numbers of the population moving out of Yobe and Borno States, and the insurgency reminds the nation every now and then that it can strike in places like Kaduna and Kano when it wants.

Prominent Nigerian citizens, the leadership of the Muslim community and civil society organizations should now engineer a platform which should assist both government and the insurgency to explore genuine options to end this war being waged around us without any ground rules. The times for lamentations, trading blames or fence-sitting are over. It should be clear by now that government has no clear strategy to win this war without creating more of the enemy. It is equally clear that the insurgency cannot defeat the rest of the nation, and its tactics of hurting the very constituency it claims to be fighting for will not win it this war. Let us begin by challenging those politicians who think they can run this country better than President Jonathan to rally around other people of goodwill and love for peace and progress to see if they can create a national momentum to bring this war to an end.