President Jonathan was widely reported to have warned of an impending revolution in the country he leads, unless the current rate of unemployment and level poverty is severely curtailed. He was speaking at a rally organized by his party the People Democratic Party (PDP) on the eve of the gubernatorial elections in Kogi State. Even given his unenviable record for putting his foot in his mouth on the most important of occasions, the prediction of a revolution from a democratically elected president will raise the bar for President Jonathan. No one would have quarrelled with the President if he had said his administration is on the verge of revolutionizing the nation’s economy, so that the crushing burdens of insecurity, poverty and corruption will be lifted. But he did not. And he did not say he will lead a revolution against hopelessness and a sense of drift which pervades our psyche, so that we can reclaim our faith in our nation; and the confidence that our leaders will find solutions to our many problems.
Perhaps Nigerians should not be unduly worried that President Jonathan is predicting a revolution without stating how it can be avoided. We have two options in responding to his prediction. One option is to say the President knows what he is talking about; and we will have a revolution unless a miracle happens which will change the fundamental structures and values of Nigerians in the next few years for the better. The other option is to say that the President is literally abdicating his position by identifying a problem and failing to assume personal and primary responsibility for finding a solution for it. Neither of the two options will give Nigerians any comfort.
A revolution is a process which involves fundamental changes at the political, economic and social levels, and almost invariably involves a repudiation of the legal basis of the status quo. This is one of the reasons why our constitution prohibits a revolution, or any change of government which is not prescribed by the constitution. An uprising triggered by massive economic problems will sweep away Nigeria’s young democratic experiment, and the leadership which it produces. It may involve a class war, a situation which will set the poor against the rich, and the population against the regime. In the Nigerian context, tragically, it is unlikely to ape the Arab spring, when entire population rise up against regimes. In our case it is likely to take ethnic and religious dimensions, among many others, and will be difficult to be concluded as a national revolution. So it will be an unending war that will destabilize the entire West African sub-region, and affect the entire African continent very badly. It will carve out areas for religious groups who want faith-based governments; tribal leaders who want to be small fish in small ponds; opportunistic leaders and communities who may want to keep national resources all to themselves; and all of them will fight each other in a terrain which will be difficult to control. It will bring in the ambitions of China on the African continent; the greed and desperation of the US and its allies to secure sources for oil and gas; and disparate groups which are already fighting the West will find new opportunities and frontlines.
What President Jonathan foresees is not a revolution, but the failure of the Nigerian State. A revolution will usher in a new order. The failure of the Nigerian state will end a bad old order, and usher in a worse state of affairs. No one will win in the event of a failed Nigerian state, but history has recorded many successful revolutions which gave nations new energies, focus and purpose. The President should know the difference between the two. He had, himself, said on a number of previous occasions that he does not accept the thesis that Nigeria will fail in the next few years. But the President is guilty of more than just poor conceptual clarity. Millions of Nigerians will have their current levels of fear over the future compounded, when their leader says things will get worse, without assuming responsibility for the situation. Six months into his elected term, the nation is today a lot more insecure than it was before he was elected. The nation is earning more than it ever did from the export of crude and gas; yet the President says the economy will collapse unless petroleum subsidy is removed. Most Nigerian say the President should remove corruption and greed around the subsidy, and not the subsidy itself. But it is obvious that the president has made up his mind. And Nigerians do not trust that the removed subsidy will be insulated from the corruption which has cost them the subsidy. And they do not believe that the removed subsidy will be invested into areas of the economy and managed well enough to guarantee jobs and a functioning economy that will grow, and not just produce a few more billionaires.
The prophecy of a revolution from a President who promises the nation transformation is curious. But President Jonathan is right in one respect. He puts his finger on one of the most explosive issues which threaten the nation: the unacceptable levels of poverty and political alienation in most parts of the country. We run a political system cornered by cult-like political parties that produce politicians who cannot and will not lead. Most citizens equate our democracy only with elections; and they do not see any roles for themselves beyond being mobilized by money or fear to vote along prescribed lives. So the people do not own the process, and don’t see it making a real difference in their lives. Young Nigerians, even those who acquire the very poor quality of Nigerian education have no jobs, no faith in the future; and no power to change their circumstances. Democracy cannot be defended by people who have no stake in it. It can only have relevance and utility for those who will exploit its weaknesses to acquire political power and wealth.
Perhaps President Jonathan intended to alert Nigerians over the sheer magnitude of the challenges facing the nation. But he close the wrong language. Even if he was carried away by the sense of occasion, he most know that Nigerians will ask him what he will do to head off a revolution in Nigeria. If he wanted to say Nigeria has problems, he should tell his fellow citizens what he will do about them. After all, he asked for our mandate to govern a democratic, secure and prosperous nation. When he mentions revolution, he simply compounds our fears that he has no solutions to our problems.
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