THIS TIME LAST YEAR

          It is difficult to recall that this time last year, our nation was at major crossroads, and had a chance to sink deeper into decay and hopelessness, or rise above its limitations and challenges. So much has happened in the last one year to change the nature of our political system, that a visitor will hardly recognize the nation’s political terrain today. It is difficult to recall a year in our nation’s history in which much was promised and premised; and so much was wasted. 1966 will come close to the last one year, but it is important only because it marked our descent into the political abyss, and did not reflect a single flicker of hope that things could get better. This time last year, Nigerians were full of hope and expectations. The year is ending with bombs, looming crises over economic policies and bitter disappointments that our democracy has made us more insecure and unsure of our future as a nation of civilized people.

This time last year, the nation was full of hope that the new leadership of INEC was going to give the nation a substantially free and fair election. Professor Jega’s task appeared daunting, but the nation was assured that he was up to the task. President Jonathan was fighting for a ticket on his party’s platform against a formidable opposition which said he had breached party rules and could not be trusted. He was rallying PDP Governors around his cause, and as captain, he was threatening to sink the ship if they abandoned his ambition to run. The northern consensus contraption was ranting and raving, and raising primordial sentiments around its cause. The Nigerian political elite which had maintained a tenuous hold over the political system had lost that control, and the elections looked as if they will be held in the midst as massive controversies with religion and region playing pivotal roles. President Jonathan’s campaign was raising sentiments around his origins, his religion and the appearance of a northern resistance against a southern candidate. Spirited efforts were being made to tinker with the Electoral Act and secure some advantages for sitting legislators. General Babangida was threatening to quite the PDP unless it stood by its zoning policy. President Jonathan was threatening to deal with former Vice President Atiku Ababakar for quoting Frantz Fanon who said those who made change impossible, were making violent change inevitable. He said the statement was treasonable, and a threat to the security of the nation. Atiku Abubakar in turn accused Jonathan of ill-advised ambition which was threatening the polity. General Muhammadu Buhari was threatening not to go court if he lost the election again; and thieves had stolen the DDC machines which INEC intended to use to build up a good register of voters. Our churches and mosques had become arenas of bitter political contest, and text messages were inflaming passions and scaring many people who just wanted to vote for new leaders. On the whole, this time last year, Nigerians were in the throes of an election campaign that was unprecedented in terms of its levels of bitterness and dangerous polarization of the nation around historic faultlines.

          In the last one year, we held an election that was hailed by some sections of the country and international community as free and fair. It was also the trigger to widespread violence in many parts of the north. Some of the victims of that violence are still camped in refugee camps; the bitterness and pains it caused is still fresh in many lives. Deep suspicion and resentment created by the cynical manipulation of faith pushed many communities further apart. Old flashpoints and battlegrounds came to life, and old wounds were opened. Nigerians scurried back into primordial holes, and began building barricades and walls around limited and limiting objectives which demeaned all of us. The north became polarized along ethno-religions lives, and paid a huge price for mismanaging its pluralism. The west rediscovered its pan-Yoruba formula, and retreated to consolidate as an ethnic group. The east built up UPGA as its tribal front, and supported Jonathan to reinforce its dominant role in its relationship with the south south. The south south built itself around its new-found economic affluence and a chance for more under a presidency of one of its own.

          The 2011 elections produced winners, but not leaders. The Jonathan presidency was a victim of the circumstances of its own creation. The violence which predated it and provided the context of its emergence haunted it from the very beginning. The panel set up to establish the causes of the election-related violence made vague references to the need to address poverty and meet the yearnings of Nigerians for genuine change. Nothing has come out of it. Unable to rally the nation and galvanize it towards his transformation vision, President Jonathan resigned himself to the management of a nation which is being dragged down by widening violence, corruption and massive alienation from the democratic processes from many parts of the nation.

          This time last year, the nation was poised for a possible renaissance. All we needed was a credible election which will provide solid support behind leaders. The elections failed to do so. The leaders it produced could have found the courage and the vision to steer their ways around the hostility and indifference of much of the citizenry. They did not. The citizenry could have moved beyond the 2011 elections and waited for 2015. It did not. Nigerians became convinced that the democratic process benefits only successful politicians, while it exposes them to much danger. Then, in the midst of all this cynicism and dejection, Boko Haram raised its levels of hostility. It attacked agents of the Nigerian state almost at will, and put forward demands that are virtually impossible to meet. It repudiates the Nigerian state, the constitution, and the democratic process. It attacks security agents and christians and their churches, as well as fellow muslims. And it says it will not stop its campaigns. Token gestures such as the Galtimari Committee have said poverty and injustice are behind Boko Haram, and that government should negotiate with them. As we speak government plans to spend over N900 billion on security, and has little answer to questions over how much it will spend on the causes of the widespread insecurity in the nation.

          Wise counsel would have prevailed on President Jonathan to limit the number of issues which will pitch him against mainstream Nigeria pubic opinion at this time. That counsel would have advised against embarking on the removal of petroleum subsidy in the face of the huge security challenges which the Jonathan administration has to deal with. Apparently President Jonathan had no access to that counsel, or has chosen to ignore it. The Christmas day bombings, and the ill-advised reaction of the President in his reported statement that the nation has to live with these bombings for some time have made matters a lot more complicated for the President. Perhaps for the first time in his presidency, muslims and christians, northerners and southerners alike are united around some issues, one of which is their condemnation of the state of security in the nation. There is widespread suspicion that an attempt is being made to get christians and muslims to fight each other in an unending and pointless war; and the government’s responses are not giving citizens much comfort. The President is also providing a rallying and uniting platform and opposition around the issue of removing subsidy, a plan fro which the nation has clearly been ill-prepared for. The nation will be shaken to its foundations by the resistance to this plan, and the atmosphere which it will generate will be the least conducive to dealing with the escalating threats of violence. A hostile public opinion and pervasive sense of insecurity will unite the nation against President Jonathan’s administration.

          This time last year, the nation had a historic opportunity to more beyond its basic limitations and launch itself on the path to regeneration. Now it is obvious that the opportunity has been lost, or frittered away by incompetence and the absence of a strong political will to break new grounds in meeting new challenges. President Jonathan is uniting the nation in its opposition to his seeming inability to give them security and pursue their economic well-being. If he loses the subsidy removal battle, his administration would have been dealt a fatal blow in terms of his credibility to lead. If he wins, it will be a victory that will be difficult to justify by its gains, in an environment where most Nigerians feel abandoned by the President.

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