LURKING WITH INTENT

“The public say they are getting cynical about politicians. They should hear how politicians talk about them.” George Walden

General Muhammadu Buhari’s assertion that there will be crises if the elections of 2015 are not free and fair have drawn a torrent of reactions which are profound in their revelations. The General was reported to have said that if the government, or the government and INEC, (or “they”) fail to organize credible elections, there will be, as in Hausa language, a bloodletting involving the dog and the baboon. The expression is usually made in situations where fights draw substantial blood from all parties, and there are difficulties in identifying outright winners. The use of the word “blood” appears to have drawn the biggest flack from his opponents. Fellow members of the opposition have also rallied around him, denouncing criticisms against him and further justifying his comments.

Suddenly, the political atmosphere hit a high temperature, certainly the highest since the riots which followed the announced victory of President Jonathan in last year’s Presidential elections. The deluge of condemnation and stinging criticisms from President Jonathan’s stable and his party were matched by strident defence and equally scathing criticisms of General Buhari’s critics. A nation watched a drama involving very strong emotions and words, and wondered what the fuss is all about.

And the nation is justified in asking what all this excitement is about, and may have reached some conclusions already. One of these may be that General Buhari represents a potent source of concern in government and PDP circles, perhaps the most potent around. Just when you thought the aging General may be preparing to honour his word that he will not contest another election after 2011, the political limelight is thrown squarely on him over remarks millions of Nigerian have heard from him and from many others many times before. It couldn’t possibly be merely a reaction to comments which hint that a rigged election triggers massive social unrest, and that the biggest lesson of the aftermath of 2011 is that 2015 must be better. Could it be, then, the result of a perception that General Buhari’s long silence is over, and he may be preparing the grounds for his campaign in 2015? Could it be that talks of political alliance between the CPC, ACN and possibly a few more parties in being taken very seriously by the administration and the PDP? Could it be the result of worrying concerns that the pervasive nature of violence in the lives of Nigerians is already a major challenge, and a nervous administration abhors any further hint at another dimension to our already violence-driven existence?

Whatever he intended to achieve by the remarks he made, General Buhari has made much more capital from them than would have been reasonably expected. Given the manner of the reactions to his comments, we can discern two possible explanations. One is that General Buhari has squarely re-positioned himself as the issue in Nigerian politics. The second, related, explanation is that he will now find it very difficult to resist the pressure not to run again in 2015. Although the President’s corner had made efforts to rope in people like el-Rufai in the salvos they fired at Buhari, their reactions merely showed the General in greater limelight.

But it is important to seek a deeper understanding of the reasons behind the reactions of the administration and the PDP, other than being knee-jerk. If General Buhari is condemned for suggesting that blood will flow if the 2015 elections are rigged, it is reasonable to ask why anyone will believe that blood will not flow if elections are rigged in 2015, whether General Buhari says so or not. Could the administration be living under the illusion that 2011 was a mishap, a glitch and a one-off event that will not recur, if the same circumstances are recreated? Is it possible that no one in authority is looking into the remote and immediate causes of the riots which followed the Presidential election? Could it be the case that the administration and INEC see those events merely as the product of the hysteria which General Buhari created, and the manner citizens literally translated his demand that votes must be protected all the way? Could someone be operating under the illusion that election – related violence, particularly riots which follow announced results were created by General Buhari, and will die as soon as he does not even hint that people should protect their votes?

The comments and reactions to General Buhari’s comments should worry Nigerians. In the first place, the suggestion by General Buhari that there are people out there who could choose to conduct free and fair, or rigged elections is very worrying. If someone like the General could hint that the electoral process is under the control of interests which cannot be influenced or affected by him, his party or even the Nigerian people, it is reasonable to ask what will motivate the administration and INEC to conduct elections that are better than 2011? Secondly, the comment is likely to distance more citizens and voters from the electoral process. What is the point, many voters will say, when they labored to register; labored to vote; and some of them even protested and rioted when they thought the results were not reflections of popular will, and now they are hearing that 2015 will not necessarily be better; and if it is not, there will be even more blood on the streets? Thirdly, many of General Buhari’s supporters will be frightened when they hear him talk of violence in 2015.

No one has gained anything from the riots of 2011. Not a single vote was re-allocated; not a single seat was gained by all the fire and the blood; and all the committees and enquires have not shown how the political and electoral process should be re-engineered to stop the poor from spilling their blood and the blood of others at every election. Finally, General Buhari may not have been responsible for the dangerous maneuvers in the PDP which produced Jonathan as candidate but which exposed the nation’s critical faultlines; he may not have been responsible for the weaknesses and the shortcomings of INEC; but he should know that damaging propanga has irretrievably linked him with the riots that followed the 2011 elections in the minds of many Nigerians. For a man who may still aspire to lead a nation, or at least have his party work to replace the PDP, his image and standing, particularly in the south and some parts of the north will not be helped by his insistence on being personally responsible for providing the linkages between political contest and the dangers of routinely-rigged elections.

Which brings us to the issue of General Buhari’s political future. Now that the flack he has drawn seem to suggest that he represents a major threat to the PDP, the hands of those in the CPC who argue that he should stay firmly in the fray and contest again in 2015 would have been strengthened. His body language also appears to suggest that he will solve the emerging rancour over his successor by choosing to remain active. It is safe to say that if General Buhari does stay active, and chooses to fly his party’s flag in 2015 possibly in an alliance with the ACN, the PDP will dig in deeper in its resistance against this potentially-winning combination. President Jonathan’s yet-to-be-declared, but active interest to run again in 2015 will receive a boost from a south-south/south-east alliance. The nation will again be polarized, perhaps more dangerously then it was in 2011. In that event, both Buhari and Jonathan will be serious political liabilities in a nation desperate for some means to re-invent an all-inclusive political process.

The quarrels over the possibility that 2015 elections will be rigged, and that this will create massive bloodshed should focus the nation’s attention on preparations for credible elections in 2015. The main problem at this stage is that the administration, INEC, many sections of the country which support Jonathan, and sections of the international community which says any type of election is better than strife in Nigeria, insist that the 2011 elections was one of the best organized. Many others disagree, including Buhari and his supporters. So if 2011 was good, what should be improved? Are we going to go to 2015 with same candidates, the same bitterness, the same INEC, and a citizenry which takes its pound of flesh instantly every time it feels cheated at the polls?