PHEW!

“Don’t pay any attention to the critics; don’t even ignore them.”
Sam Goldwyn

Even President Jonathan will be forgiven if he is not sure whether his cup, at the end of his first year as president elected on his own, is half full, or half empty. To say the least, it has been an eventful year; and it will not be an exaggeration to say it may yet be his easiest year of the four he has been sworn to serve. If this has downed on him, it will be a sober President Jonathan who will be celebrating the first anniversary of his own Presidency tomorrow. If it downs on the people with whom he shares responsibility of running the nation, we should hear less of achievements, and more of a stronger commitment to fix the gaping holes in the administration’s record.

Two developments in the last week both define the character of Jonathan’s administration so far, and appear to be the basic issues which will determine his agenda in the future. The first is the emerging story about how $1.1 billion belonging to the Nigerian people from the sale of an oil block which belonged to Malibu oil was shared by private companies owned by people close to the presidency. The second is the statement credited to Chief C.K Clark, the President’s political godfather, that President Jonathan will run for the Presidency again in 2015.

The emerging story about the manner over N150 billion was shared out by private companies on instructions from top government officials will cast a pall on festivities and celebrations. In a nation whose citizens have been shocked beyond belief by scams and outright theft of incredible amounts, these last revelations will cap it all. It will be explained or rationalized, of course, and there may even be a token commitment to investigate. But Nigerians will not believe it. Instead, people are likely to cry once again to the high heavens for heads to roll. The same way they are demanding that heads roll from the fuel subsidy scam. The same way they want heads to roll over the pensions scam. The same way they want all the revelations from the investigations of the National Assembly to be followed up faithfully and culprits brought to book. The first year of Jonathan’s full-bloodied presidency may be recorded in history as the year of huge resistance against anti-people policies, and of monumental theft. A cynical citizenry will become even more distrusting as the administration subjects finding, reports and investigations to further scrutiny, which will allow suspects regain composure and confidence, and cover tracks with good lawyers and bureaucratic lethargy. Between the insurgency of the Jamaatu Ahlis Sunnah Lid da’awati Wal Jihad (Boko Haram) and corruption of unspeakable proportions carried out with chilling impunity, there will be little left for Nigerians to cheer in this anniversary.

It may have been noted by the President and his close advisers, but it needs restating that in two basic areas, this administration has failed very badly. These are in the areas of securing lives and property of citizens and promoting their welfare; the two basic functions of any government. The manifestation of organized violence and rampant violent crimes have rendered life for all Nigerians more precarious. The national assembly has moved into the vacuum created by incompetence and weak political will of the administration to expose how improvements in citizens’ welfare have been hijacked by rampant and entrenched corruption. The President lost much of his turf to organized violence and crimes, and the opportunism of politicians in the legislative arms. He will find it increasingly difficult to put out policies which involve additional hardships for the public, such as the forthcoming review on electricity tariff, if Nigerians hear only of stolen billions.

The second element which has defined the character of President Jonathan’s presidency, and is likely to define his agenda, is his political future beyond 2015. By now, when old man Clark speaks, the wise listen with rapt attention. When old man Clark and Pastor Oritsejafor say the same thing only the most foolish will be indifferent. And both say the only obstacle between Jonathan and another term from 2015 is a stubborn northern resistance, but it will be successfully challenged. Jonathan will run again in 2015 as it is his right to do, and in his interest to do. Others have done it before him, and those opposed to him are only doing so because he is from where he comes from. Nothing about competence, track record, ability or proven capacity to govern an increasingly difficult nation.

So Jonathan’s presidency will have one eye on managing an economy under assault from large scale corruption, and a polity threatened by organized violence and debilitating crimes; and the other eye on consuming maneuvers for 2015. How does he intend to handle these two simultaneously? Or, more significantly, what does he have that will enable him do this successfully? He certainly cannot rely on his public service to shore up deficiencies in integrity, competence and courage, when it is being routinely assaulted by arbitrariness, impunity and corruption. His entire arsenal of institutions and mechanisms intended to prevent the types of outright theft and fraud we see have been rendered laughable by the public stunts of the legislature which uses its oversight powers to show how a poor manager President Jonathan is. He will find it difficult to rely on the nation’s security asset to put an end to the insurgency which is crippling the north and threatening the rest of the nation, because it is more a part of the problem, than its solution. And though the brand new PDP leadership he has just helped install may give him some comfort, his party’s stranglehold on the nation’s political terrain is by no means guaranteed.
The problem for President Jonathan is that Nigerians are not sure who he is, or what he can do. If what they have seen of him in terms of managing crises, the economy or corruption is the Jonathan who wanted so badly to become President this time last year, they won’t be impressed. If there is more to President Jonathan than what Reuben Abati, C.K Clark or Pastor Oritsejafor say, he should show himself to Nigerians. The nation must not be run all the way to 2015, the way President Jonathan has run it so far.