PARTS OF A WHOLE*

We could safely identify a number of fallacies which feed the current discussions around the nature of the present structure of our nation, and its future. All these fallacies are rooted in the historic tendency of the Nigerian elite to revisit the manner in which they compete, and the peculiar manner in which ethno-geophical and religious pluralism are manipulated in this competition. The current pitch of the debate regarding geo-politics, re-engineering the Nigerian State and its chances of failure, disintegration or survival is itself a function of a number of issues:

i. One is the destructive impact of large-scale corruption which is exposing the basic skeleton of the State in a most dangerous manner. The Nigerian leadership and elite are losing the last vestiges of credibility because of the routinized subversion of the democratic process, and the systematic pillage of the resources of the people;

ii. The threat posed by criminality and violence, which have stretched the security apparatus of the Nigerian State to a point where it is being seriously doubted whether the State can continue to perform one of the most basic functions of any State, which is the protection of the lives and property of citizens. These threats go way beyond the Boko Haram insurgency, although this particular threat represents its most potent and dangerous challenge. Routine and endemic killings in towns and villages, many with remote or immediate links to ethno-religions conflicts are also major threats. So are the routinized crimes of kidnappings and armed robbery which have taken up residences in many parts of the country.
¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬*Text of a Lecture delivered at the Symposium on “Political and Socio-Economic Challenges and the Muslim Ummah” organized by Muslim Ummah, Kaduna State Branch, 19th – 20th May, 2012.
**Visiting Reader in Political Science, Usumanu Danfodiyo university Sokoto, and Executive Chairman, D.I.T.V/Alheri Radio, Kaduna.
*** I have made comments on the current debate on restructuring Nigeria in my blog site, www.baba-ahmed.blogspot.com.

The latent threat of insurgency in the Niger Delta which has deep roots with politics in the area is also a major threat;
iii. Elite fractionalization which has become pronounced since 1997, and the increasing perception that it will be impossible to have a credible and crises-free elections and the emergence of truly national leadership in Nigeria;
iv. The failure of the political elite to provide solutions to all these problems, and hence the resort to historic tendencies to the old divide-and-rule elite tactics.

2. The fallacies which are fed by these underlying structural limitations of the Nigerian elite can be summarized as:

a. The falsehood that the Nigerian nation is built on the twin pillars of illegitimacy, and ethnic groups which have not yielded their rights to live alone or together in the modern Nigerian state;

b. The falsehood that the Nigerian federation is a federation of elites, States tribes or religions, and not of citizens and voters;

c. The falsehood that elites can determine whether the Nigerian State survives, fails, disintegrates or is restructured, and citizens have little say in the matter;

d. The falsehood that geo-political zones represent political sub-entities, and larger ethnic groups can be reference points to the determination of the nature and the structure of the Nigerian State, and the over 260 ethnic groups and 160 million Nigerian citizens do not represent basic factors in any discussions on Nigeria’s structure or future;

e. The falsehood that outlines of an alternative basis for new federating units are already emerging in the attempts to engineer a monolithic political entity in the South West; the efforts to entrench the new-found but fragile unity in the South South; the serious search for the illusive Igbo unity; the half-hearted and confused manner in which the middle-belt seeks to create an identity; and the two zones in the far north which are being identified by violence and poverty.

f. The falsehood that an elite conclave under a sovereign or whatever type of conference will address the most basic of the weaknesses of the Nigerian state, which are its increasing failure to perform the basic job of a state, and the consequent evidence that insecurity and poverty will rise and feed more of its problems.

g. The falsehood that political stability, growth of the democratic process, economic progress, peace and sustained security will only come about if an event which comprehensively examines the structural limitations of the Nigerian State is allowed to hold, or holds in spite of official opposition and has its recommendations implemented, with or without government support.

3. The basic outlines of the Nigerian State today can be identified as:

a. A State where massive disputes around political succession, the organization of elections and the absence of legitimacy have alienated a substantial portions of the citizenry. No region of Nigeria is immune from this basic failure. Indeed, the scramble to build walls around political enclaves is itself a function of the failure of the leadership to address a most fundamental requirement to govern, which is basic elite cohesion;

b. A State which is basically characterized by pillage of resources and corruption in its vital institutions. Citizens are distant from the State, and become increasingly more so as leaders systematically and routinely subvert all the values of leadership. Security is impossible to guarantee solely by use of State power and resources; and citizens who feel they have little stake in the system, or little to protect or defend, will distance themselves from state organs and institutions. The most vital of all the institutions, the democratic institutions, will be increasingly subverted by a small elite, to the extent that voters and citizens feel leaders emerge without being elected, and elective offices go to the richest, most powerful, or most corrupt.

c. A State at the mercy of threats which understand and exploit its weaknesses and fault lines. The Boko Haram insurgency raises the issue of the absence of justice, equity and honesty in governance, although it does this in a manner which presents these issues as if they affect only Muslims. Ethno-religions conflicts are products of unfair distribution of political and economic resources, as well as the cynical exploitation of the failure of the Nigerian State to effectively mediate relations between ethnic and religious groups. Violent crimes and others such as kidnapping exploit a weak and corrupt security network. The linkages between politics and organized violence are becoming more pronounced, as the competition for elective offices and the resources of the State increasingly moves away from the ballot box and becomes determined by buttets and bullion vans.

d. Frightening levels of corruptions, not only of huge resources, but of basic values and institutions. As the political and democratic process becomes increasingly dependent on vast resources stolen from the public, the leadership and value systems they produce merely keep the vicious circle going. Stolen money provides stolen mandates; which are then used to steal more money. And the circle goes on;

e. Dangerous gaps which are daily increasing between the citizen and the Nigerian State. Stolen resources prevent the State from registering as an important factor in the lives of citizens. Failure to provide security and welfare for citizens erodes legitimacy and respect for leaders. In many parts of the country, new political arrangements as the solutions to poverty and insecurity are being falsely peddled. Yet the leaders who do so are from the some stock as the leaders from the zones from which distance is being created.
4. There are genuine reasons why Nigerians should worry over our current situation, for which we are told a conference or restructuring will provide a solution. What we need to appreciate are:

a. Nigeria has too many roots and branches in every village, community, state or region to be dissected and restructured along ethno-religions lines. This nation is much more firmly rooted than our elites and leaders like to believe, and every farmer, trader, artisan, housewife or labourer; and every village and community has paid its dues in the last 100 years to have a nation which should survive our current problems;

b. Our unity and survival as a nation has not been surrendered to elites and politicians with questionable legitimacy to do with them as they wish. Our nation will not fail because politicians fail to sort out their basic disputes. We will not be re-assigned, re-allocated, re-designed or re-organized on the basis of the wishes of a few members of the elite who see these as easier means of control.

c. Our unity is a unity of people with diverse ethno-religious identities, an organic unity of people, who are citizens of one nation.

d. No part of Nigeria will be safe or will progress beyond the insecurity or poverty of the others. The nature of our current challenges can only be addressed in a holistic manner;

e. The resources which God gave us belong to all of us. The tendency to seek for arrangements which keep more for a region, and deprives others of basic development resources is dangerous and self-defeating. The foundation for peace in any nation is a function of the manner the richest and the poorest are accommodated; and the degree to which wealth and poverty do not threaten unity or equity. No restructuring or isolation will make the citizens of the South West or South South safe from the negative effects of poverty in the north. Similarly, progress in parts of the country which encourage them should be welcomed, because affluence in the South West means northern farmers can sell more onions and cattle there; and use profits to expand. The prosperity, from legitimate income, of the South South should be welcomed in the north, because it boosts the strong economic ties between the regions, and is a solid source of resources and income for the north. Poverty and insecurity in the north is a serious threat to capital and enterprise from the south east, which is heavily dependent on investments and consumption in the north. Any threat to peace and security in the north central zone which affects the production and distribution of agricultural produce will severely damage the nation’s economy. All these are reasons why the nation’s foundations as a united country should be encouraged, not subverted by elites who solve problems by creting more problems.

5. All these are not to say that the Nigerian State is not showing pronounced signs of failing. Failure of the Nigeria State, which is actually a worse fate than break up or restructuring, will be the case when the Nigerian State fails to provide security, protect its territory, fails to prevent balkanization, produces multiple leadership and loses the monopoly over the use of violence. The Nigerian State will fail if its leaders fail to sustain a coherent and cohesive leadership over its critical institutions, including its security institutions; and civil society fails to organize a comprehensive resistance against failure. Those who advocate tribal conclaves or some other type of meetings to discuss our political structures and future use the fear of failure of the state as justification for their demands. The fundamental weakness of this position is that the elite who preach national conferences, restructuring or break-ups are basically the same people who are responsible for what the nation is today. Even if they do not, or have not exercised political power, they fail in terms of providing the wrong solutions for the wrong problems. For so long as the type of leaders we have continue to dominate the political level, it makes no difference how you restructure Nigeria; or how you break it up. It will remain the same, or all the parts will remain basically the same as they are.

The real challenge in terms of stopping the dangerous decline of the nation is to go beyond the agenda and schemes of fractions of the elite. A national political movement must emerge to raise real answers to the very serious questions which need to be asked of our nation. Some of these questions include:

a. What are the sources of the basic weaknesses of the Nigerian State?

b. Can we solve basic problems of unity and security by re-organizing the nature of the federal system?

c. Where should we locate our collective resolve and anger at the State of our nation, and how do we channel them constructively and productively?

d. In the event that state failure becomes an imminent reality, what can civil society do?

It will be difficult to take this debate to a national level without an increase in the crisis level of the Nigerian State. At this moment, our elite and leaders all tend to think that problems are regionalized and limited, and they can build walls around them or distance themselves from them. At some stage, the citizens of Nigeria will have to engage each other in some serious damage control, and it is reasonable to expect that issues which feed the current clamour for restructuring or balkanization of the Nigeria State will feature. Parts of the nation have issues and problems they will need to seriously thrash out before they engage the rest of Nigeria. In my view, these are some of the issues which will represent a genuine agenda of issues and concerns which the Nigerian people should take up:

i. The North should undertake a critical self-assessment in terms of its failure to manage its socio-cultural and political pluralism. It needs answers to questions over why faith has become a central issues in its politics, and the manner competition for political and economic resources are increasingly determined by faith. It needs to ask serious questions about the character of the faith of its Muslim population and its relationship with a secular western or Christian values and institutions. It needs to understand the feelings of simple Muslims, their dreams and aspirations, and the manner in which they can be processed through the political and democratic process. It needs to appreciate the changing nature of power relations between Muslims and Christians in many parts of the North, and of the critical linkages between the nature of our democratic process and the patterns of distribution of power and economic resources.
The north needs to understand why it has failed so spectacularly to develop its best two assets: its large human resource and vast agricultural potential. It needs to understand the dynamics of the Nigerian political economy, and take full advantage of its strength while limiting its weaknesses. It needs to appreciate the manner in which political competition exploits its cultural pluralism, and how it can build bridges among its communities and faiths. In a situation where it has majority of the population and voters, the north only needs a guaranteed fair electoral system to ensure that it remains a key actor in political competition.
The West will need to come to terms with the fact that it is nowhere near the politically and culturally homogenous entity it likes to believe it is. Attempts to paper over historic and contemporary cracks which exist will fail every time short-sighted opportunism and the challenges of responding to stimuli from the rest of Nigeria come calling. The West can build an island of relative economic prosperity, but it will be substantially dependent on the extensive linkages between its economy and the rest of the Nigerian economy. Politics will continue to expose the fragile nature of Yoruba politics, and it is easy to forget that only a few years ago, the PDP controlled majority of Yoruba State. The West needs a new roadmap on relating with a North with which it has deep, historical and cultural ties; on relating with the South South which it needs to stay in Nigeria as a safe and secure source of revenue and security; and on relating with the South East which it needs to deepen already extensive economic relations with. It should rid itself of the dangerous illusion that it can go its own way, because no other part of Nigeria is more Nigerian than the South West.

The South South needs to sober up over its current euphoria over a semblance of political unity, and economic prosperity. No region is more vulnerable to instability and threats of subversion than the South South. None needs Nigeria more than the South South. It cannot compete in isolation; or survive potentially damaging political squabbles, or the resistance from the rest of Nigeria if it moves too far away; or the machinations and strategic interests of the Western world which will emasculate it. The south south is tempted to threaten Nigeria with destruction of oil and gas resources, and could use this as a bargaining tool. But no region is as dependent on oil and gas resources as the south south.

The south east need Nigeria to prosper, but it has to do some serious self-appraisal. It is the most exposed zone in terms of presence in every part of Nigeria; but its towns and villages are virtual dens of crimes, forcing citizens to live nightmare existence. The moral and ethical tone of the people and communities needs a very critical self-assessment because the fabled industry and enterprise of the Igbo people is severely compromised by the endemic nature of crime in their communities. The Igbo believe they have not developed to their full potential in
Nigeria, and an Igbo presidency and additional states will unleash this potential. Yet the zone is in a deadly competition with the North for 2015, which could do serious damage to both regions. The south east is attempting to build a tribal enclave like the Yoruba are attempting under the ACN, but it suffers from a perennial split personality defect which will not let it decide whether it wants to go with or against Nigeria.

2. Nigerians should demand that real substantive issues be examined by the current initiatives to reform the constitution. These must include:

i. The cost of government;

ii. The structure of the federal system, and in particular, the need for a
structure do that does not serve only to produce leaders who steal public resources;

iii. The need to curb corruption;

iv. Improvements into the electoral process;

v. Improving national security, and the creation of outlets against periodic and inevitable ethno-religious conflicts;

vi. The creation of a nation that allows the unhindered expression of the faith and beliefs of individuals and groups;

vii. The identification of mechanisms and processes which will guarantee that all Nigerian children receive quality and affordable education.

I thank you.