“It is not enough to succeed. Others
must fail.” Gore Vidal.
President Goodluck Jonathan says 2013 will be the year
of his greatest impact. Most Nigerians will hope so. Leaders of the opposition
and skeptics who hope he will disappoint again will pay for their hostility
with higher costs for diesel for their generators, higher costs to protect and
secure life and limbs, and uncertainties over whether a President who performs
badly all through his four-term will allow a free and fair election to
determine his fate in 2015. If 2013 will be the year President Jonathan will
affect our lives most, what factors will be in play in shaping it?
1.
President Jonathan
The President’s character will be a major factor in
terms of what he does in 2013. It cannot escape him that the vast majority of
Nigerians are resigned to his rating as the least effective Nigerian leader,
and their levels of cynicism over his capacity to alter it are alarming. He
could transform his persona and generate new levels of personal courage,
commitment and zeal to deal more decisively with many problems threatening to
swamp the nation. If he can do that, he will then focus on overhauling his
decision-making machinery. Key Ministers involved in managing the economy and
infrastructure are now serious liabilities. Many others are content to just tag
along without adding value to the quality of governance. He has too many
powerful people without specific responsibilities but massive influence over
decisions and policies. Some of these are what Alhaji Asari Dokubo recently lashed
out at. The President needs to clean up his Augean Stable which is now a veritable
source of corruption, tardiness and incompetence. If he does not do this, he
will achieve even less in 2013 than he did since 2011.
It is also important that he evaluates his position in
relation to running again in 2015. The more he keep the nation guessing, the
more he will attract latent and active hostility and opposition from members of
his own party, especially governors from the north nursing ambitions;
south-east politicians and an opposition receiving a major boost to merge from
his perceived ambition. The President’s best bet is to renounce any ambition to
run in 2015, and make that decision public. He can then tackle serious problems
with a single-minded devotion, and step on toes which will otherwise hide
behind his ambition.
2.
Governors
Governors will constitute a major influence in shaping
2013. Together, they can frustrate the President’s plans on Sovereign Wealth
Fund and other key policy instruments around the economy, and possibly around
constitutional amendments. They have many sources of conflicts among them,
principally around resource allocation and constitutional amendments. These
will reduce their potency as a group, but only slightly. Some PDP governors among
them have presidential ambitions, and if they can lean on each other and trade
favours, they will be the most decisive influence in determining the outcome of
the fight for the PDP flag. They are likely to be influential in determining
President Jonathan’s plans towards 2015 which will have to be made clearer in
2013.
3.
The opposition
The opposition will be influential in 2013, provided
current talks end up producing a genuine merger, and leaders that can threaten the
PDP and Jonathan’s ambitions. Sticking points in negotiations such as who will
emerge leader and flag bearer in 2015 will be difficult to resolve, but if they
go beyond 2013, they are unlikely to result in any serious challenge to the
PDP’s dominance.
4.
Insecurity and Crime
Threats to national security from the insurgency of
JASLIWAJ (Boko Haram) are likely to continue to challenge the nation. If the
administration sustains its current basic strategy of deploying large numbers
of security personnel around locations and highways in 2013, it will expose
them to more localized hostility, with little impact over the capacity of the
insurgency to continue to threaten citizens and the state. If, on the other
hand, government undertakes a radical review of its strategy with focus on
intelligence gathering as well as involvement of communities in managing the
crisis, it could substantially limit the capacity of the insurgency to wage war
in 2013. Review of strategies may include tapping into communities to build
bridges with the insurgency, and engaging it in discussions within the year.
Serious crimes such as kidnapping, crude theft, armed
robbery and piracy will most likely escalate in 2013, unless the administration
addresses major weaknesses in its law and order assets, particularly the
police. Substantial part of this asset has been compromised by corruption and
chronic incompetence, and violent crimes are feeding off its weaknesses at
alarming rates. Small arms availability is now a bigger threat than even the Boko
Haram insurgency. Unless major steps are taken to restructure the nation’s
policing capacity and improve discipline and professionalism, life for most citizens
will become even more insecure in 2013. The military is being stressed and
exposed to dangerous levels, and the year will likely highlight the impact of
this exposure.
5.
Corruption
The image of the administration as weak when it comes
to dealing with corruption will be made worse unless genuine results show in
the efforts to prosecute subsidy and pension scams and other reported cases of
corruption around official circles. The perception is that the administration
harbors too many untouchables with powerful positions and intimate
relationships with the presidency. Of all the issues which the President needs
to stamp his authority on, none is more important than dealing with run-away
corruption. 2013 will be decisive in this respect, because 2014 will be a
campaign year, and tills will be seriously raided for resources to prosecute
the 2015 elections, whether Jonathan is a candidate or not.
6.
National Assembly
2013 is likely to witness more frictions between the
presidency and the legislature, particularly the Representatives. Disputes over
budget performance and implementation, the P.I.B, constitutional amendments and
corruption will pitch the executive against the legislature in more noisy and
untidy disputes. As the year runs out, political ambitions will tamper with
these quarrels, and both sides may sheath swords or raise voices over the
accumulation of resources for campaigns, or in deference to considerable
muscles of the party and governors.
7.
The Media
The administration has been fighting a losing war with
the Nigerian media. Its perception of being assessed by a biased and
intrinsically-hostile media may make it less-disposed towards improving its own
image, or performance. A marked improvement in performance in the first half of
2013, though unlikely, will alter the manner the media portrays the
administration. Failure to do so will leave the administration even more
poorly-assessed by the nation’s media.
8.
The elements
2012 was a bad year for millions of citizens affected
by the floods. It was only a matter of good fortune that massive losses were
not compounded by severe food shortages. The nation cannot pay the same price
for another disaster in 2013.
9.
The Super Eagles
If the Super Eagles win the Africa Cup of Nation in
South Africa in 2013, they will redress the alarming decline and waste which is
now a feature of the nation’s sporting fortunes. If they fail, as the nation’s
Olympic Team did to justify the huge cost of supporting their campaigns, more and
more Nigerians will write off our sporting legacies in 2013
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