How elections threaten democracies

Tell me, I may listen. Teach me, I may remember. Involve me, I will do it. Chinese Proverb.

There are likely to be major concerns by United States government officials who monitor and influence the growth and development of liberal democratic systems in developing democracies, over the impact of the comments of the Republican Party candidate in the November elections, Donald Trump, which question the integrity of US presidential elections, and his threats to reject the outcome if he loses. Even in the current context of an intensely-polarized atmosphere, the shock of Trumps's near-sacrilege is deep. Those who thought Mr Trump had exhausted his considerable capacity to shock and abuse all settled wisdom on presidential candidates and contests are having to move back a bit more to make room for his latest assault  on some hallowed values in American politics. In the unlikely event that he wins the elections, Trump would have been elected, by his own admission, through a rigged electoral process, but he will accept the outcome. If he loses, he will weigh his options in responding to losing in a rigged election, but he has not said those options include accepting the loss and  moving on. If many familiar African politicians will not protest at the insult, you could almost say Trump will find good company among them.

Mr Trump's journey to a historic point where he threatens to re-write elementary history of American politics belies a deeply worrying undercurrent that most Americans will wish the world not to notice. His long and eventful journey hugging the outrageous and the unseemly fringes of  American politics has been made possible by its uncanny ability to tap into widespread divergence over America's pluralism; its challenging positions in world security and the global economy; its history of efforts to set standards in dealing with racism, sexual politics and conduct of leaders; and its claims to leadership in the global progress and triumph of liberal democracy. Mr Trump has landed a very heavy blow on what is normal in American democracy, whichever way his journey ends. Without any pretense to contributing to the quality of persons who become US presidents, he has also substantially exposed his opponent, Hilary Clinton as a poor alternative in a nation which is still undecided over whether electing a two-term black president was progress or a glitch. Now he brings US politics to the levels that used to worry US diplomats in small, poor countries where politicians work at being elected while routinely preparing for heavily disputed  results.

Mr Trump has raised the world's stake in the outcome of the US presidential elections rather dramatically. If he loses and cries foul, his voice will reverberate across the globe as a verdict that will come to haunt the US in the global community. This will not be an argument over a dot or two on ballots and a presidency decided by a few thousand votes in Florida. He has prepared his grounds well, the way many politicians we are familiar with here in Africa do: work hard to discredit the electoral process even as you campaign to win through it. If he wins, he will substantially lower the moral threshold of a mature democracy that is vital in intervening and resolving election disputes, or shutting up aggrieved politicians who will rock the boat. A US led by a president who wins a rigged election, even if he commits to reforming the process, will find that the billions it spends in improving the integrity of electoral systems across the world will pay less dividend. Powerful nations like China and Russia, nations without the pretensions of operating squeaky-clean democracies may feel a little more comfortable partying with a US president willing to simultaneously operate at many levels.

Elections represent the most vulnerable points for most developing democracies. In other words, political systems under which a huge portion of mankind lives, routinely exposes them to periodic crises and stresses that threaten lives and livelihoods, and discourages the prospects that it could improve itself. Rigged elections and disputed results have been the most common causes for violence in most developing democracies. Widely contested or illegal transitions have stunted the growth and development of democratic values and institutions, governance structures, social and cultural inclusiveness and cohesion and the emergence of quality leadership. Leaders who emerge from rigged elections create more desperate oppositions, and then cling to power by rigging more elections to avoid the consequences of losing power to bitter and vengeful oppositions. Stolen mandates erode legitimacy, encourage resistance, including violent resistance, and the creation of desperately poor economies. Rigged and disputed elections have set back the gains made by most of Africa in eliminating military regimes, by replacing military dictators with leaders whose elections are marked by massive bloodshed, alienated populations, civil wars and low intensity, prolonged conflicts between ethnic groups or regions. In West Africa alone, a handful of elections are being anticipated in the manner of a troubled pregnancy. In the US, a disputed election is most unlikely to go beyond the courts and the possibility of a few rednecks being arrested. In Africa, whole nations are threatened by electoral disputes.

The US government's role in facilitating the conduct of credible elections and a peaceful transition in Nigeria's landmark elections of 2015 is without a parallel. From support for improving the capacity of INEC to conduct improved elections, to very involved interventions to ensure that the elections were credible and the results were uncontested, the US worked with respected Nigerians and Africans, the African Union, UK government, EU, and many more centers of global power to avoid an bigger crisis than one that followed the disputed 2011 elections. No  foreign nation had ever been as involved in our domestic affairs in peace time as the US was in the run-up to the elections of 2015.The targeting of President Jonathan and (the then General) Buhari to personally commit to accepting the result was intense, and not a few Nigerians resented the summoning of our President and his rival to Lagos by the US Secretary of State to Lagos to give personal assurances that they will accept outcomes of elections both suspected to contain in-built designs to rig them out. The pressure on Buhari was for a commitment that he will not encourage or support an uprising in the event that he lost. President Jonathan was put under pressure to commit to accept an outcome that looked increasingly like a historic defeat of an incumbent, an end to his party's hegemony, and a worrying life dealing with consequences of this watch. Both gave commitments on the condition that the results were true reflections of popular will. With little to challenge the credibility of the elections, an incredible flurry of activities and energy was deployed towards getting the obvious loser, President Jonathan to concede. The jury is still out over whether this has earned him a lifetime of freedom from all suspected and provable official transgressions. Other African leaders rigging their ways into perpetual stay or contemplating respect for popular ill are watching the Jonathan experiment  and experience very closely.

It may not get to a point where President Buhari picks his phone and advises Mr Trump to submit to the verdict of the American electorate, but Nigerians should watch this important election in the US for many reasons. One of them is that our admiration for American democracy and its unique  presidential system should be tampered by an acceptance that it does not necessarily put the best of its citizens in the Oval Office, and that it has not gone beyond some elementary limitations. Another is that in 2015, Nigerians and our friends in the global community raised the bar in the quality of our elections and a transition to elected administrations without the traditional spilling of copious blood. That bar must not be lowered in subsequent elections. Nigerian politicians with eyes on 2019 will be well advised to focus attention on winning popular support, as opposed to rigging their ways into power. If our citizens are spared the nightmare of being dragged into fights over elections, and politicians can focus on improving electoral acceptance because our elections are not part of our major problems, we can concentrate on building a nation that could address other fundamentals like reducing poverty and improving security.