Nigerians of interest

                A large chair does not make a king. African proverb.

        The subject of this column was triggered by the impressive national turnout at the tenth year anniversary celebrations of the reign of Sultan Saad Abubakar III. This event lived up to expectations that it will provide a vast rally for leaders and politicians to identify with an institution many of them look at with a mixture of discomfort and awe. The Sultan's first decade has been eventful, not so much because he had struggled between the instinct to chart a new course as his personal values and life experiences dictated, and the pressures to preserve an institution that had been hemmed in by political forces over which it had little influence; but because it coincided with major developments in the welfare and security of the millions of Muslims whom it claims to represent. There were many Nigerians who will define the character of his second decade in power at the anniversary, and a few were not, but they will also influence and shape the next few years and the future of a nation at many crossroads. These are a few of such Nigerians of interest, in no specific order.

1)     President Muhammadu Buhari.

      President Buhari is struggling with an economy in deep recession which is threatening to overshadow his notable achievements in rolling back an insurgency and taking on deeply-entrenched corruption. Old ghosts stoking political violence in the Niger Delta are  assuming new lives, and his administration risks being mired in deeply destructive skirmishes in the creeks, or submitting to  demands it cannot meet in return for peace and safety of assets which cannot be guaranteed. His political platform is weakening as close allies shop around for a political future on new or re-engineered platforms. He appears set to preserve a style of administration and a circle of influence which have come under widespread criticism. His opposition will build its assaults around policies and key office holders that do not appear to address the gravity of the state of the economy. If the President can successfully demonstrate the beginning of a reversal in the fortunes of the economy in the next one year, his supporters will sustain their deep faith in his ability to change the basic character of the Nigerian political economy.

2)     President Obasanjo.

President Obasanjo has maintained his perennial visibility in the political horizon, and so far, he has publicly stuck with his support for Buhari. Nonetheless, he courts intense speculation and curiousity by his tendency to pander to all tendencies that beckon. The potency of his actual clout is widely debated, but many Buhari supporters will pray that he does not write one of his infamous letters to the President before 2019.

3)     President  Babangida.

        A central pillar in the military influence on Nigerian politics going back to 1966, President Babangida, along with Obasanjo, Buhari, Danjuma, and a score of aging generals still retain an active interest in Nigerian politics. Buhari's election had stirred this residual military influence in all its manifestations, in spite of efforts to paper it over. This undercurrent will haunt the Nigerian political culture and process until, in all probability, the end of the Buhari presidency.

4)     President Jonathan.

President Jonathan is testing the waters to establish whether he is on permanent parole from his past, or he will eventually be held to account for some the transgressions for which many of his aides and associates are being investigated or tried. Whether he uses his freedom to be part of the political process and the rebuilding of the PDP or he puts some distance from active partisan activities depends on how firmly he feels the political ground under his feet.

General Danjuma.

        This General has just assumed a major, sensitive responsibility to bring relief to millions and oversee rehabilitation and reconstruction of lives and livelihoods in the north east. This is a job requiring immense trust from President Buhari, and the international community will watch very closely how he performs, because so much of their goodwill and resources which could go to that region is contingent on improvements in the integrity and competence of institutions and persons involved from Nigerian governments.

Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

        Much of the restiveness within the All Progressives Congress(APC) and the excitement in the remnants of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) are results  of signals that Atiku is rallying forces out of the two parties towards a new platform. So far he has maintained a studied presence and a registered distance from the leadership of the APC and the government, a position politicians like Atiku tolerate with extreme discomfort. In the next few months, he will have to show his hands.

Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

        The Asiwaju is fighting another of the many turf battles he had fought in the past. Spirited efforts are being made to dilute him out of the future of south west politics, and he is being reminded by many signals that the top has less room for him than he thought he was eternally entitled to. Those fighting him know they are dealing with a veteran, the type of politician a philosopher said you either crush completely or pamper permanently. No one should write off Tinubu, but he knows by now that this battle for his political survival could be his last if he loses.

Senate President Saraki.

         Saraki bears more scars than any politician today from the pursuit of his ambitions and the resistance from quarters which felt threatened or offended by his single-minded determination to grab power where others wait to be given, or join queues to beg for it. He is at the heart of current manouvers to reposition ambitions and interests, and much of what he does today is informed by a close monitoring of other powerful interests in his party and laboured calculations around 2019 and beyond. He is likely to resist showing his hands prematurely given his current position and his vulnerability, but he will be under some pressure to signal where he stands in the many emerging permutations and realignments.

Minister Rotimi Amaechi.

        This former governor of Rivers State and a powerful minister is a recurring factor in all developments and rumoured calculations and manouvers towards 2019 and beyond. His party's  recent victory in Edo State has avoided  a potential whitewash by the PDP in a region where he claims as his source of power and relevance. Rising political violence tends to question relevance and utility all political holders from the region, and generally creates parallel sources of power. If Amaechi's rumoured interests in 2019 and beyond are genuine, he will have to rediscover new and additional sources of influence, or dig deeper trenches to fight Buhari's war in the south south region.

Chief Edwin Clark.

       Those who thought Chief Clark had returned when he recently led a delegation to President Buhari to discuss terms for cessation of hostilities with groups destroying the nation's oil and gas assets in the Niger Delta are wrong. He was never away from events and developments in the region. Whether this is the cause or the consequence of the underdevelopment of the region's political poverty can be debated, but a long term and lasting solution to the circle of violence, corruption and poverty in the region will have to be sought without people like Chief Clark.

     

Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

          This former governor of Kano State has tall ambitions, but they will be crushed if he loses his current battles with his former deputy, now governor. He could make peace by yielding Kano to Ganduje in return for the recovery of his prime constituency for higher office or enhanced value in negotiating a future, but this will be a risky and expensive option. Kwankwaso's entire political assets will be needed in the next few months to save him from total political extinction.

         Abubakar Shekau.

         Shekau leads a faction of Boko Haram that has been pinned to enclaves, but still retains the capacity to hold off a total defeat and the freeing of all civilians under their control. Hundreds of thousands of civilians will take years to relocate and resume normal lives and livelihood as a result of the continued resistance of this insurgency. So long as this insurgency holds territory and communities, the war against Boko Haram would not have been won. The General in President Buhari will know this more than any one.