Trump's America: Tiger by the tail.

If you close your eyes to facts, you will learn through accidents. African proverb.

There are times and occasions for prolonged grieving. For most of the world reeling from the shock of Donald Trump's earth-shaking triumph, this is not one of them. Some people can afford deep introspection, some anger and even expressions of intentions to resist a legitimate process. These will be Americans, some of whose choice is still sinking in a world fundamentally influenced by the USA.  The rest of the world will be roughly split between those who will submit entirely to a Trump presidency, and others who will look hard at how they can live with it, or in spite of it. Most of the world  will be well advised to maintain the highest levels of vigilance over US politics in the next few months before deciding whether to run, stop and fight, or vindicate the philosopher who said in all power relations, the strong will do as they wish, and the weak will suffer as they must. 

A Trump presidency is actually less fearful than the powerful undercurrents which it stirred and rode to power with, leaving much of the world stumped. Somewhere between the outrageous and the improbable, the Trump presidency will find a place that will leave friends and foes searching for those elements they thought will define it. Some of its outlines will linger longer than others, but it is safe to say that America will bear a Trump stamp for the next generation. Millions of voters, and quite possibly millions more who did not vote appear to want an America which shapes the world after itself. They want an America that will be comfortable with its historic negative character expressed in racism, prejudice, bigotry and hate. They want to re-visit settled wisdom around the progress America has made towards cultural and political inclusiveness. They want to interrogate globalization, world security founded on extensive cooperation and collaboration with allies and some accommodation with traditional foes, and a world in which America shares space with sworn enemies and forces it cannot defeat. They believe it is possible to permanently defeat deeply entrenched political establishments, remove the stranglehold of corporate America from its politics and reverse policies which attempt to bridge wealth and income gaps by taxing the rich. They are against dealing with inner city violence and decay by reforming policing and re-engineering local economies; against welfare policies that improve access of the poor to social nets; against reducing the dominant white colour of America; against foreigners and Muslims and people who draw boundaries around acceptable attitudes and conducts by leaders. They want an America that chooses which battles it will fight, and they want an America that wins all of them.

Something had happened to America nearly two decades ago that few people had noticed. Since the end of the Bush  presidency, it had began to look like it will reflect all its defining characteristics, but the Clintons' dynasty and the Obama presidency aroused a resistance that only needed a catalyst to create what Trump called a movement. Mumbling poorly-articulated sentiments and outrageous provocations, he struck a cord among millions of Americans who thought America can be remade. Now that movement will have to be channelled through a governance process that will attempt to balance huge expectations against fierce resistance by US citizens, political establishments, allies and foes. A Trump presidency will find that its traditional allies already have their hands full from the sharp turn to the right which their politics is taking. Between Brexit and a resurgence of far right political parties and sentiments, Europe is  divided between those who believe in building walls to keep out deeply-integrated economies and  foreigners, and those who see economic progress and security in stronger alliances and regional groupings that entail some limitations to sovereignty. The far right will see a Trump presidency as a boost to its designs to reverse the gains of globalization, particularly in the creation of a global labour force and dilution of cultural and racial character of nations. The resistance against re-writing fifty years of unrelenting assault on national boundries, economies and texture will be fierce. 

A Trump presidency will challenge the world, but it does not have to be all doom and gloom for many. The bloodletting in Iraq and Syria and Yemen and Afghanistan will continue as US military top brass argue over what options to pitch to a Trump presidency that may just prefer that the wars will all go away, or go on without American boots, dollars and blood. Russia will reap from indecision and weak American will to assert itself in areas where it is currently competing with it. Europe could re-invent itself with less US muscle in its defence, dusting up quarrels over trade and economic policies with the US. China will push on, building on the weaknesses of advanced industrialized countries. Neighboring nationals that Trump threatens to wall out will seep through, prodded by hostile governments now less inclined to work with US on controls and economic cooperation. ISIS and other faith-based enemies will find inspiration from a president with registered hostility towards Muslims. They will benefit from the distance of US support and collaboration in fighting armed, home-grown groups in Europe. Belligerent regimes will find new and additional ways to test US might and mood, and nations which count on US cover against them will feel the impact of its retreat, indifference or indecision. In many of the worlds theaters spilling blood and hope, the position the US takes in the next few months will decide whether thousands of people live or die.

Africa should not expect any favours from a Trump presidency. African nations will have to watch stores very closely as the new US administration scrutinizes all policies and programmes involved in Africa-US relations, just in case they reflect elements of the Obama heritage that Trump and his supporters find so offensive. Africa can wait, bowl in hand, for Trump to decide if will continue to receive US bailouts for its weaknesses and limitations, or it can re-discover its capacities to limit damage and improve its bargaining capacities. Africa could build new foundations for a US-Africa relationship by engaging the new administration in a forward-looking exercise that sensitizes it to its importance. By any standard of judgment Africa is of major strategic importance to the US. From the massively-subsidized military regime in Egypt, to the war against Boko Haram in Nigeria and its neighbours, the campaign against Al-Qaida in the Maghreb, the global efforts to limit the dangers of climate-induced poverty in Africa and the scores of conflicts and tensions dotting the continent, the US has become a major partner in African security and development, a partnership less informed by charity than by the imperatives of protecting the position of the world's leading power. China represents a real threat to US economic and strategic interests in Africa, and a re-engineered African Union and strong regional groupings will make much impact in leading Africa through difficult maneuvers to exploit competition for its markets and resources. Africa should work with the rest of the world to limit the potential damage of a rampant US administration that deports thousands of non-citizens, and should even raise its voice in defence of African-Americans whose prospects of progress in a nation more defined by colour are likely to dip. 

Leading African nations such as Nigeria need to adopt positive and enlightened postures in dealing with new challenges from a Trump presidency. The absence of a Nigerian Ambassador to the US and a Permanent Representative at the UN at this moment is most unfortunate, and should be addressed immediately. Nigeria should deploy all goodwill towards the new administration, and seek to reinforce US support for the war against Boko Haram as well as efforts to sustain the development of its democratic institutions and long-term political stability. The US needs to understand the nature of Nigeria's current recession and their implications for its security and unity. It needs to  appreciate the central position of a Nigeria in Africa, as well as respect its capacities to lead Africa in challenging US interest in the Middle East and other parts of the world that are not consistent with Africa's. US voters made their choice over how their nation should relate with the world. The world now has to decide how it lives with that choice.