“Ordinarily, elders like us would take comfort in the belief that God Almighty has rewarded our past endeavours with successors who should worry over matters of national security, the state of the economy and governance generally. It would have been their lot to find solutions to problems that confront our people today; and ours would have been to pray for them, and where necessary, offer some general advise...
But these are not ordinary times…”
-General Abdussalami Abubakar declaring open a Peace Seminar at Minna, 15th March, 2012.
It is arguable if there have ever been ordinary times for the north and Nigeria, but the frenzy of activities around the politics, economy and security of the north in the context of its relations with the rest of the nation will certainly qualify for its being treated as a development worth some attention. Suddenly, this frenzy of meetings and consultations, many involving the same interests or persons is gripping the nation’s attention. Many northerners are even daring to believe that the sleeping giant in the sun is about to wake up, but many more are worried that it will wake up to find that there is very little room for giants who slept badly, and for too long.
It is tempting to interprete this flurry of political activities as a reaction to the contempt and insults daily being thrown at a region and its people who are being blamed for wasting an opportunity to be great, and is now irritating the rest of the nation with its bombs, bullets and begging bowls. These insults and derision, and the seeming resolve in some parts of the country to keep the north permanently where it is today, or expunge it from the nation altogether do hurt. But they hurt even more when they come from its youngest generation who hear of huge opportunities leaders from the north had, but failed to steal the resources of other people and bring them to the north for development; or leaders who did steal, but kept it to themselves; or leaders who governed without vision, patriotism or honesty, and frittered away opportunities to develop the huge potential of the north in its land and people.
But there are more basic reasons behind these activities than the contempt with which the north is held today. Most of the key players in convening these meetings recognize that a loud statement was made by many parts of the north following the general elections in April 2011. No one yet has bothered to understand the nature of that statement, or is taking steps to address its roots, or ensure that the political and electoral process is fixed before 2015. Certainly, there are hints that ordinary folks have lost faith in a democratic process where offices are allocated; mandates bought or stolen, and the population is only useful around election times. The Nigerian electoral process has never been removed from a pronounced influence of violence; but 2011 marked a new high in the linkages between elections and widespread violence.
Then, of course, in the past one year, the escalation of violence under the generic cover of Boko Haram has assumed center stage in setting a political agenda of its own, and since the north has none of its own, this agenda written in blood has become the only game in town. It raises issues about injustice, corruption and impunity, but the solutions it provides are impractical, non-negotiable and do not seek a political process to be actualized.
The Boko Haram insurgency has up-staged the old northern establishment by repudiating it altogether. Its methods and goals are taking many casualties. Political careers are at risk, to the extent that elected persons, influence peddlers and fixers have all retreated in the face of its contempt for the political process. It is destroying what little there is left of the economy of the north, engineering massive capital flight and scaring away any prospects for investment. It is damaging inter-faith and inter-community relations, and re-introducing violence as the only method in resolving disputes.
The collateral damage of the post-election violence and the Boko Haram insurgency is just as disastrous. Most of the north is under virtual siege of military and police personnel, and the basic rights of citizens to decent treatment has been jeffisioned. Northern highways are a study in inept security management, and the vast majority of citizens believe that the countless military and police checkpoints are intended only to humiliate and inconvenience northerners. Night-time economies in many cities have been destroyed because of the banning or restrictions on two wheel transport or imposition of curfews. More people are therefore joining the ranks of the desperately poor and bitter. Religious, community and other leaders have shrunk in size because they cannot influence how the Nigerian state responds to the threat of the insurgency, or how genuine grievances of innocent citizens against security personnel can be processed. The rest of the nation has defined this insurgency as a northern problem, which, at worst, is a self-defeating position and at best, is an additional weapon to use against the north in this historic battle to permanently reverse its political fortunes. A nation which spends one quarter of its annual budget on security, much of it targeted at an insurgency cannot be indifferent to it, or treat it as someone else’s. It is also a bad mistake to assume that Boko Haram will cripple the north permanently, unless this thinking is informed by a plan to keep the insurgency alive for the foreseeable future.
Will all these activities which seek to limit the political and economic damage to the north produce the results they seek? To answer this question, the real interests behind them need to be understood. The Dr. Junaidu Group has a clear idea that the north will have to fight itself out of its corner by trading punches and adopting new techniques for avoiding being pinned against the ropes again. It has many people vastly experienced in the nuances and volatility of northern and Nigerians politics, and they are not shy to look the rest of Nigeria in the eye and say we want more resources because we are entitled to more. This group says the north wants any type of conference to discuss Nigeria, on its own, or on anybody’s terms. It plans to tap into the intellectual resources of the north, its political assets and its diversity to find northern solutions to northern problems. Its biggest liability is the appearance that it is a front for northern governors who do not have the guts or the autonomy to take on their fellow governors over resource allocation; or mobilize the north around political reforms. And northern governors are known for how little credibility they have, and are reminded at every turn that they are largely responsible for the recent misfortunes and setbacks of the north; or being the architects of the present poverty of vision and muscle to tackle its economic and social problems. Many people of goodwill are warning the people in the Junaidu Group that liaison with northern governors is dangerous to the health of their personal integrity, and the fortunes of the north.
The Danmasanin Kano initiative, which a friend jokingly referred to as the geriatric ward is also extremely suspect. It taps into a generation, that has very little say in what happens, and very little influence over those who determine what happens to people in the north: President Jonathan, northern governors and Boko Haram. These elders are a sad reminder of the leadership deficit of the north, and even for an African community which places premium and value on age and experience, and outing by these elders suggests either of two things. One, they are unwilling to yield space for a generation which should be trusted to take over from them. Or, two, they have no generation behind them which can be trusted to take over from them. Either way, it says a lot about the leadership question in the north, and raises serious questions over the wisdom of elders entering the ring, instead of coaching young wrestlers over the secrets of a successful fight.
The General Abubakar initiative falls somewhere between the bring-it-on spirit of the Junaidu initiative, and the lamentation of elderly men who insist on having a say in a different conversation. It has a foot in both initiatives, so it can suffer from the weaknesses of both. Its major asset is General Abubakar himself, although there are people who say you only need to look behind the General every time to see General Babangida. But he has a good record of staying out of the fray, and is trusted by many of the political elite. Its biggest drawback will be if it fails to cash in on the goodwill it enjoys across a wide spectrum of the northern political environment.
All these activities around the heart and soul of the north are evidence of real concerns to improve its capacities and fortunes to deal with its problems. But they avoid asking many awkward questions, which will be their major undoing. Any initiative to deal with security or economy of the north, or to prepare it to engage Nigeria as a strong partner must ask about why the PDP which controls 16 of the 19 State Governments, and northern governors who monopolize the machinery to dispense patronage, facilitate real change and development, and engage the Presidency and the rest of the country are not directly involved in the search for answers to the problems of the north. Unless all these initiatives intend to supplant our Governors and their Party, or push them into meaningful action, they will remain trees looking for a forest.
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