THIS CREEPING MADNESS

“Some men go through a forest and see no firewood”

A Fulani Proverb

Governors from South South states are angry with the north over its temerity to hint that their States are sitting on, and developing on resources to which they are not strictly entitled. They express a widespread indignation across much of the oil and gas producing region which has followed the publicized intention of Northern Governors to demand for a review of the formula for allocation of revenue from oil and gas derived from off-shore resources of the nation. The anger of the governors from the South South is being further stoked by the utterances and posture of a group led by Dr. Junaidu Mohammed, to the effect that the north’s claim to a share of the off-shore resources is legitimate, non-negotiable and realistic. The governors think that Dr. Junaidu’s recent statement over the issue is insulting, provocative and ill-informed, and represents the type of arrogance which is “symptomatic of a pattern of thinking that has not helped the unity, stability and progress of this country.” They are particularly irked by the insinuation that revenue from derivation which goes to oil-producing states cannot be adequately managed by them, and the implied suggestion that it will breed corruption, while other parts of the country which deserve it as a matter of right wallow in poverty and insecurity.

Just to the north, the socio-political group, the Ohaneze Ndigbo has also challenged northern leaders to declare their true intentions behind the flurry of meetings on the insecurity situation in the north. The North has indeed been going through a frenzy of meetings and consultations in the last few weeks. First, the shoot-from-hip Junaidu initiative which sets a very visible agenda: prepare the north better to deal with its many problems, and engage the rest of Nigeria more constructively from a position of strength. To do this, it says it is willing to go where few would: to demand for a review of the manner off-shore revenues are shared out; and announce the willingness of the North to discuss all options on the structure and future of the Nigerian nation. It brought together an impressive array of northerners who defy partisan, cultural or religions boundries, a rare feat in the north these days.

Then very old people from the north, many long thought to have retired from any public or political outing on behalf of the north, met to look at its current security, economic and political situation. It was the type of meeting the nation had to take note of, and it said either of two things. Either the north is finally waking up to its damaging limitations and is now willing to find northern solution to its problems; or, the leadership deficit in the north is so acute that it requires these elders to step forward. That meeting was followed a few days later by another in Minna convened by General Abdussalami Abubakar, which had in attendance some people and interests that were involved in the Junaidu and Alh Maitama Sule initiatives, a many other. This initiative also had a similar goal: stop the bleeding of the north, salvage and rebuild its economy, and prepare it to engage more constructively with the rest of Nigeria. Seeing all these meetings, Ndigbo wants the north to say what they are all about. Many people will not miss the irony that northern leaders are being suspected for concerted efforts to deal with insecurity, when a few months ago all you heard was their silence and inactivity over it.

These are indeed very interesting times in Nigerian politics. They also challenge students of Nigerian history to find some puzzling answers to many questions. The quarrels around the questions over sharing revenue is taking place among governors and other interests almost entirely defined by membership of the PDP. Between the South South and the North, the PDP ¾ of Government of the nation, the vast majority of legislators and about over 70% of the resources of the nation. Yet the PDP cannot provide a framework for discussions on sensitive matters such as this, so that the nation’s temperature is not further raised unnecessarily. What does this say about the largest party in Africa, now being increasingly referred to as the cult of a few which is only good enough to buy and allocate offices? What do these quarrels say about Governors themselves, who are either hiding behind groups to demand for a few more crumbs or who are defending huge wealth without showing what they actually do with it? What is Ndigbo afraid of when it sees Northerners running around trying to put out a fire ravaging its economy and society? Could its curiosity be the result of its worry over where the 2015 PDP ticket will go, South-East or the North? Could there be some discomfort that finding a solution for the insurgency of Boko Haram, the decaying economy of the north and improving its capacity to negotiate a good deal in a Nigeria of the future may reverse the plan to keep it permanently on the margins? Are northern Governors in any position to raise issues regarding the fortunes and rights of the north, when they are largely responsible for so spectacularly bringing it to its present position? Would all these meetings, committees and resolutions issuing from many groups succeed in healing the damaging divisions which exist in the north; re-building its economy and re-inforcing its social and cultural structures to deal with the Boko Haram insurgency, which is prima facie an insurrection against the northern establishment?

There is a worrying vacuum at critical points in the Nigerian political system, which is why many worrying quarrels and posturing by people who should know better are compounding the problems of Nigerians. President Jonathan appears to have drawn rigid lines around his willingness to mediate in some of these quarrels before they become additional sources of insecurity. By the time Nigerians know whether he plans to run again in 2015 or not, the environment may be entirely beyond his capacity to handle. The polarization of the nation along political lines is becoming more pronounced, in spite of the dominance of the PDP in the political process. The failure of the north in managing its political and social pluralism, its economy and its security is providing an additional impetus for other parts to grow and develop. If the north can fix itself, it may challenge the position of some regions and groups which believe that it is history. But the nation as a whole will be the better for it. What represents the biggest threat to a holistic solution to a national problem, of which the poverty and insecurity in the north is only one aspect, is this creeping madness which is taking control of leaders. Tinkering with structures or revenue formula will not solve the national leadership deficit. A wholesale replacement of this quarrelsome group who fight each other when we are scared and hungry may be the most useful steps to take.