Meltdown

          “It is better to lose the saddle than the horse”. Proverb

Ordinarily the spat involving General Gowon, President Obasanjo and President Jonathan over remarks made with reference to dealing with current security challenges would be put down as another symptom of systemic decay which pervades every facet of our national life. It will rank alongside the unseemly quarrels which broke out among senior clergy and simple folk after the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (C.A.N) Pastor Oritsejiafor joined select Nigerians who now own their aircraft. Public disagreements at these levels among people who should know better are not new, and many people have resigned themselves to living in a nation without statesmen, elders or moral standard-bearers. The involvement of General Yakubu Gowon in this quarrel is uncharacteristic and unusual. For a man who had largely resigned himself to praying for the nation as his contribution to national survival and unity, General Gowon’s criticism of Obasanjo was more than a slap on the wrist. President Obasanjo would not have felt a slap on the wrist, anyway; and this perhaps explains the choice of words such as irresponsible by the General who by any strand of imagination cannot be seen as an errand boy. It must have made some mark on President Obasanjo, who responded with a stout defence of his comments, and complained over the choice of words from the aging former Head of State.

These are not ordinary times, and the quarrels involving a sitting President and two former heads of state must be seen as evidence of a national meltdown (credit to Modibbo Kawu). At the heart of the issue is the seeming failure of the Jonathan administration to find solutions to the insurgency known popularly as Boko Haram. President Obasanjo started it by invoking a genuine dark spot in our recent history: the killing of soldiers and policemen in the town of Odi, and reprisals by soldiers which was however sold-off as firm and decisive response. It was not a good example to bring up, because it reminded the nation of another budding insurgency which had enough confidence to kill many policemen and soldiers; and of an administration which was willing to go far beyond arrest and prosecution of culprits, so that appropriate lessons were learnt by “militants”, communities and the nation. It was easy for President Jonathan to deny Obasanjo’s claim that Odi set standards for successful state response to threats to national security, because, indeed, criminal activity in the Delta after Odi took on a life of its own. So what were all those lives lost for? He did not even need to state how his own strategy, if he has any, is better than Obansajo’s at Odi, or Zaki Biyam.

President Jonathan’s repudiation of Obasanjo’s claim over the impact of Odi which was given fillip by General Gowon begged the question. If strong arm tactics and blitzing forays into communities only create more problems than they solve, what is Jonathan’s grand strategy to deal with Boko Haram? He had used the same media chat to denounce both Obasanjo’s claims on the impact of Odi, and to state categorically that there are no discussions with leaders of the insurgency. They are faceless, he said, and you do not negotiate with faceless people. A few days later, his government puts out huge sums as bounty on all its leaders, who are identified by names and aliases. Two days after this, two bombs went off in a church in Jaji military cantonment, an event comparable in its audacity with the bombing of the U.N Headquaters in Abuja.

It would have done General Gowon’s current standing greater service if he had both advised General Obasanjo to be more circumspect over some of what he considers his achievements, and advised President Jonathan to be more resolute in finding solutions to the insurgency. These very important people exchanged hot words over a problem that just gets bigger. A few others in their class will resist the temptation to join the fray, and opportunities to offer wise counsel and advise in private must be obviously rare these days.

The nation’s assets in elders and statesmen is virtually depleted. General Gowon’s last salvo which was answered by President Obasanjo’s many irreverent spokespersons may quite possibly take a while to be heard again. President Jonathan and Obasanjo will turn the nation inside-out as they fight for the heart and soul of the PDP with eyes towards 2015. Foot soldiers of the two will raise the stakes at every opportunity, and even the very serious threat of the insurgency is likely to continue to be exploited in this fight. There is hardly any Nigerian elder who has not lined up behind some intensely-divisive issue, principally matters to do with ethnicity or region.

Without support from former heads of state who have all faced major challenges during their watch; and in the absence of a solid, united national resolve by the elite to rally around and push the nation beyond its dangerous stage, even at the risk of working with President Jonathan, the ship of state will not just drift, it will quite likely run aground. The Boko Haram insurgency, or its many variants and opportunists will continue to damage the credibility and capacity of the Nigerian state to assure citizens that they are safe. Massive exposés around corruption will further dent citizen confidence in the integrity of leaders. Isolated events such as the killing of people in Bichi over a reported mispronounciation, and the events in Nassarawa state in the last two weeks, and many more of such incidents all over the nation reinforce the perception of a state which cannot provide security over lives and property.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the Nigerian state has lost control over the exclusive monopoly of violence. The Boko Haram insurgency has registered a major success: the ability to capture public attention. But it has done worse. It may be responsible for sending signals of a weak state, or one which is indifferent to the plight or security of citizens. In these circumstances, public fallouts by eminent persons who should be part of the national resolve and consensus are extremely damaging. The nation is facing imminent meltdown. It needs every hand, particularly hands with experience, patriotism and commitment, to play less to the gallery and get off fences, to help save it from a real meltdown.