General Muhammadu Buhari GCFR

“A wrongdoer is often a man who has left something undone, not always one who has done something.”

Marcus Aurelius AD 1281 – 80

Penultimate Sunday, General Muhammadu Buhari made a two and half hour live appearance on DITV and Alheri Radio Kaduna. The unusual and marathon audience he granted to the public in an interactive programme during which all manner of questions and opinions were thrown at him was revealing. It is quite possible that even the General may have been taken aback by the patterns of comments that came from his supporters, and it is safe to assume that his strategists must be pouring over the comments, nuances and the appeals that came through during 2½ hours.

Since the resumption of the aborted 2010 alliance between the ACN and CPC, the most significant development from the opposition had been the composition of negotiating teams, and the signing of a document signifying the intention of the CPC, ACN, ANPP and APGA to merge. Given the very public and intense liaison between General Buhari and Chief Bola Tinubu before the merger talks actually commenced, the public would have been forgiven for believing that only the two parties would merge. Many were surprised, therefore, when ANPP and APGA joined the negotiations. General Buhari told his audience that the talks involved parties that have elected representatives and office holders. In that case only the Labour Party was left out, among parties with any significant elected members.

Not surprisingly, a large number of callers during the programme took up the General over the inclusion of particularly the ANPP in the planned merger. Many callers reminded the General that the ANPP leadership cannot and shouldn’t be trusted; that most of it is PDP covered in a different color; and its inclusion will guarantee the subversion of the party. It was obvious that these plaintive appeals for caution and expressions of deep concern touched the General who must have been warned by some of the more senior members of his party of widespread discomfort at the level of the rank and file.

It was a sign of the depth of commitment of General Buhari to the merger issue that he painstaking responded to every cynical and disturbed caller with an appeal to be patient, and to recognize that only a merger of all parties can defeat the PDP in 2015. On fifth columnists and former betrayers, he advised people to be vigilant and respect the rules of the new party which will emerge. Those rules will specify how its leaders and flagbearers will emerge, how intra-party matters should be handled, and how party discipline will need to be enforced.

The most revealing element of the marathon media exposure was the depth of the General’s faith that the merger will succeed, and that this will dramatically improve the possibility that Nigerians will be rid of the PDP. He believes that with the current levels of hardwork and commitment being shown by all parties (even making allowances for some disarray at the level of the leadership of APGA), it will be possible to register a new party well before the 2015. He believes that the new party can hold together in spite of the co-existence of people who had inflicted massive injuries on each other in the past, resist rigging and defeat the PDP. He cautioned that old stereotypes should be discarded, old enemies accommodated  but a watched, and that the CPC fire and spirit can survive in a merged, bigger party.

The most persistent question from many callers, however, had to do with whether General Buhari will run again in 2015 or not. Or, to be more exact, their demands that he must run, merger or no merger. It was obvious that the General was nursing a serious personal difficulty. He had said after the 2011 elections that he will not run for the presidency or go to court to challenge the results, although his party was free to challenge them. Then, after months of silence, he informed the nation that if his party insists that he must run, and as a loyal partyman, he could not decline. Now that his party is involved in a merger, a development that is likely to put everything on the table, his supporters want to know if he would run, or could be prevented from running as a result of the merger. He pleaded that it was too early in the talks to speak of candidates. It did not work. He said the talks were best conducted without preconditions. It did not work. He then said if the new party asks him to run, he will not decline.

For majority of his supporters, this is the issue. A merged party without Buhari as its flagbearer means nothing to them. They got a tiny bite at the cherry: he not only says he will remain in politics till death, but he will also accept a ticket from the new party if offered. The more discerning members of his party who see his candidature as the only tangible hope in 2015 and for Nigerian democracy will be involved in some critical scrutiny. Once the CPC merges with others into one party, it ceases to be CPC and will, at best, be an interest bloc. What will it leverage to have the new party field General Buhari as its presidential bearer? His phenomenal following in many parts of the North is intact, but it has failed the most critical test in 2011: being converted into electoral success. Whether it was rigged out or it bungled its fortunes away is a mute point now. What is important is that what the CPC will bring to the table is General Buhari's followership, and a party with massive problems. The CPC will meet, at the same table, an ACN with awesome organization but restricted followership; an ANPP fighting desperately to erase a questionable past and involvement in a suspected, illicit romance with the PDP. APGA is already a questionable participant in the merger, and it will do the new party much damage to have bits and pieces of factions of a party which has some clout in the south east. The ACN will attempt to block out the Labour Party permanently out of the merger, and the PDP will utilize its access into the merged party to cause massive problems.

In strategic terms the playing down of General Buhari’s candidature in 2015 as the irreducible minimum for the CPC will pay a lot of dividends. In a merged, larger party, there are likely to be a lot of smaller fish in a larger pond; but there will still be sharks among them. General Buhari may not have an automatic ticket, no thanks to a surfeit of young turks who will be encouraged by interests in the party and be put forward as more sellable candidates. It will be a mistake to give the impression that the CPC is only interested in the merger so that General Buhari will have a larger, better-spread platform. There will be powerful interests even in the new party being formed that will be hostile to his candidature, and it is by no means certain that the CPC bloc will play its politics in a manner designed to dilute this hostility. More important, it amounts to an injury to the values which are identified with General Buhari to continue to equate his person with democracy or to insist on the position that he alone can improve integrity and accountability in government.

The followers of General Buhari who had opportunities to speak with him a few days ago did two things. They reminded him that they still hold him in the highest esteem as their redeemer. Then they informed him that they have a say in what becomes of the CPC. The media outing must have reminded the General of the perception that he is the CPC, and the CPC is him. How he leads his party through some of the delicate turns and twists involved in the merger will be watched very closely. He would do well to accord some credit to those who suspect that he and his party could face a last-minute gang-up to prevent him from flying the new party’s flag. He should also respect sensitivities of supporters who think he is being unduly trusting of some of the elements in the merger talks.

The greatest legacy General Muhammadu Buhari can leave is to lead his large following to share some of his vlues. This will include the fact that the democratic system is improved by good and competent leaders; but it is at all times greater than even the most accomplished politicians and leaders. As he leads his party to work with others in a genuine merger, he will also need to remind his followers that politics involves a lot of give and take, and that other parties in the merger have their own interests and members as well. If he does succeed in putting together, along with other leaders, a strong opposition that will survive internal schisms, external subversion and unbridled ambition, the nation may see a genuine change at all leadership levels in 2015.