Trouble dey sleep…

“Something unpleasant is coming when men are anxious to tell the truth.” Benjamin Disraeli, 1804 – 81.

For the next few months, Nigerians will thoroughly scrutinize the contents of Malam Nasir el-Rufai’s book, The Accidental Public Servant. The portions of the book made public have already become subject of intense controversy, but may very well be only the tip of the iceberg. Major players whose lives, records and deeds or misdeeds have been chronicled in the book are lining up to respond to el-Rufai’s version of events. There will be many who were generally part of the critical periods or events mentioned by the author, who may simply reserve their comments. The problem with a book is that comparatively few Nigerians will read it. Majority will lap up selected portions, sensationalization and interpretations of others. There will be many opinions on the selected parts of the book, and Malam el-Rufai may spend a considerable amount of time explaining his opinions or defending them.

This is generally what happens when a man like el-Rufai, who has covered much milage in a relatively shorter lifespan, decides to let it all out. The major players in a complex and controversial series of events and developments all tend to be alive and kicking. And kick they will, particularly if Nasir’s version of events will harm their interests. The exact point which the author aims to achieve is difficult to identify. If it is a mid-life record of a high achiever, an icon the world cannot wait to hear from, you will expect a narrative that is focused on rudiments of qualities, breakthroughs and achievements. If it is intended as a specific narrative around an event or development, you would expect a focused and intense comment on the issue, and less on the author.

Stubborn and strong-willed as he is generally perceived, it is safe to assume that el-Rufai must have measured the value of exploding a bombshell that will overshadow a narrative on an exemplary rise through life, against a restrained or a measured delay. As it is, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the book was intended more as a provocation than a record of the life of a bright and accomplished young man who was thrust into the inner recesses of power, and spent all his time there stepping on toes. It could not have escaped Nasir’s attention that he has been in the eye of the storm for more than a decade, and in that period has made an awful amount of enemies, as well as friends who admire his courage and intellect. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has already hit back against el-Rufai. It would be most strange if Atiku does not, especially since both of them are now politicians in opposing camps, desperate to acquire power and attention. There are others like Malam Nuhu Ridabu who may be harmed by revelations that he was involved in fishing for evidence against Yar’Adua, at a time he prefers to be seem in a light that enhances his records of personal integrity. Atiku has his eyes firmly on 2015. Malam Nuhu Ribadu is a chieftain in ACN, and will like to be seen as the face of the future in Nigeria politics.

The queue of people who may feel maligned by el-Rufai’s book is long. President Obasanjo has not had his say yet. President Yar’Adua’s people may feel the urge to respond to comments made about him when he is not available to respond. President Jonathan’s people, who have already made a vocation of trading punches with el-Rufai are likely to have a hefty go, but may wait until the ground is softened by other critics. There are key players, Ministers and shadowy but powerful people who once walked the power corridors with el-Rufai in Jonathan’s camp. If, as he claims, many of them envied or resented massive powers which Obasanjo gave him then, you can be sure they will provide some ammunition in a fightback against a former colleague and friend who now takes on their principal as a daily routine. Then you have families of people like Justice Bashir Sambo, and thousands of families whose shacks and huts were bulldozed by el-Rufai’s F.C.T restoration schemes who will use the book as another opportunity to hit back at him. There are also hundreds of thousands of hostile twitters, facebookers and other young people who feed daily on a staple of el-Rufai bashing, as much because it carefully choreographed, as for the fact that he has a pronounced, partisan and an in-your-face presence in the political terrain.

And it will get very dirty. el-Rufai is already being primed by some sections of the Christian community as disrespectful of their faith, following a re-tweet he posted, over which he profusely apologized. Those elements will now pounce, as did Atiku, on el-Rufai every time he breathes. His adversaries in the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) now in a proposed merger will use soured relations between el-Rufai and Atiku and Obasanjo to freshen-up their warnings to General Buhari that el-Rufai is a serial betrayer who should be kept well beyond arm’s length.

It is fair to ask therefore, what persuaded el-Rufai to publish a book that will most likely earn him a lot more enemies than friends. A politician that he is should ordinarily court sympathy, admiration and support, and avoid dissipating goodwill and good image. An autobiography will pass harmlessly by if it does not ruffle major feathers in the lives of those who share the same space with the author. el-Rufai himself says he wrote the book to throw light on governance, and set a standard on openness. He admits it is frank precisely because that is the only way Nigerians will see and appreciate the complex inter-relationship between politics and governance. The book, clearly, is intended to chronicle failures and achievements of people and institutions at a period when Nigerians desperately needed a democratic process which will be a marked improvement on the past. Unfortunately, much of the positives in achievements will be known only by those who read the book. Many of these are part of an elite from whom el-Rufai draws the bulk of his enemies.

If el-Rufai had written a book on the challenges of managing a and a political economy characterized by dominance of powerful leaders with massive egos and dangerous ambitions, deep and spreading corruption and the effects of failures of core values to limit damage, it would have been a valuable contribution to an understanding  of contemporary challenges of leadership and governance. If he had written an autobiography of a life of a bright and ambitious Nigerian who had chalked up a lot more in his youth than accomplished Nigerians, the book would have served as a reference material in mentoring and developing values of hardwork and commitment among the young.

As it is, el-Rufai chose to write a book that will raise a storm, make him a little more money, and earn him a lot of enemies. It is possible that he will gain a few more admirers as well, but they will have to fight many layers of hostile interests to get to him now. Just reflect on this. Five of the most powerful people whose image, integrity, interests, ambitions or fortunes will be affected by this book are all around. Obasanjo, Jonathan, Atiku and Buhari and Ribadu will all have something to say. Buhari is mentioned, because he had been on record as showing an uncharacteristic level of trust and affection towards el-Rufai. He now has to revalidate his faith and trust in his younger protégé, or create some distance between them.

The greatest value of el-Rufai’s book is that it will remind Nigerians that our nation has not moved far from its most basic problems. Obasanjo, whose exit, according to el-Rufai was anything but an example of how leaders should leave power in democracies, is still a dominant influence in Nigerian politics. Yar’Adua’s controversial, if brief emergence and stay in power, and its spin-off in the Jonathan presidency is still haunting the nation. Atiku’s ambition to become President is stronger now than it has ever been. Buhari lost three elections, but no one can say if he will not give it a shot again in 2015. Nuhu Ribadu may be tempted to ask for another mandate from Nigerians. A former Minister who walked the corridors of power with el-Rufai is demanding that Jonathan explains what happened to trillions in foreign reserves. It will be useful if the positive elements in el-Rufai’s book can be grasped, because the book could end up looking more like an accidental discharge than the memoires of a former technocrat who found himself in powerful positions by accident. Above all, it will be useful if others will publish their version of events. This way, the search for what is wrong with the systems we run will be easier to accomplish.