A war of sorts

“The wrong war, at the wrong place, at the wrong time, and with the wrong enemy.” Omar Nelson Bradley [On extending the Korean war into China].

In the last few days, a number of major developments around the complex and increasingly threatening insurgency have left the nation bewildered and more frightened than it should ever have been. In quick succession, nine governors from states which plan to merge into a political party walked into the lion’s den which Maiduguri has become, and came out with an armful of political capital and acclamation for courageous leadership. Two days after that, one of the leading lights of the North and a major rallying point for a large segment of its plural community, General Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma, told a Special Convocation at the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria that the insurgency which has ravaged the North is actually a civil war being fought with covered forces and unconventional means. Then the leader of Jamaatu Alhil Sunnah Lidda’awati Wal Jihad (JASLIWAJ), Imam Ibrahim Shekau re-emerged after a long period of silence to denounce all of the statements and offers supposedly put on out on his behalf by self-proclaimed deputies. While reiterating the familiar refrain of the insurgency in its fight against the Nigerian state and all it stands for, the video reportedly contained images of the slaughter of an informant, and threats for more.

The decision to meet in Maiduguri by 10 opposition governors was seen either as an act of monumental foolhardiness or exemplary statesmanship. After they went to Maiduguri, held their meeting, walked around in one of the most dangerous spots on earth, (the Monday Market), walked down streets, travelled in one bus, heard of the blasts of a few bombs the way locals do virtually every day of their lives, made donations and travelled back safely to their states, it is fair to say that the visit to Maiduguri was an act of supreme courage and unparalled political opportunism. It will be most uncharitable to ask whether some form special arrangement had not been made with local commanders, rogue elements, JTF and community leaders to ensure that everyone held fire during the visit. But it will  equally offend commonsense to believe that a tempting target such as nine governors walking or driving around in Maiduguri will be ignored by forces which have struck almost at will at politicians, students, security personnel, traditional rulers, traders, neighbours, civil servants, suspected informants, schools, medical personnel, communication masts and markets. This is not an idle speculation. It is expected that the governor of Borno state would have taken extraordinary measures to ensure that his colleagues were safe. Presumably, that would have included elaborate assessment of security arrangements, and improvements where it was needed. It is safe to assume that JTF would have been intimately involved in the all arrangements for the security of the V.I.Ps, and that it played its part in the success of the event. Could some elements of the insurgency, or those who exploit their presence to wreck havoc also have been involved in understandings on holding fire for those two days? Since the governor is limited in terms of his capacity to control, deploy or influence the JTF, what magic did this outfit perform to ensure that it protected such high profile guests against forces that will strike just to make the point that it can hit at sensitive parts of the state?

It must have meant a lot to the government and people of Borno State and its neighours to have been visited by such high profile dignitaries, since their President will not visit. It would also do the JTF some credit that no major breaches involving the VIPs were recorded. But an uncomfortable set of questions are demanding to be asked. If nine governors can drive on Maiduguri streets, go to the market and shake hands with the public, why can’t simple folk who just want to live in peace be protected? Does the government and the JTF have some handle on this violence, such that they can influence at least when and where it does not blow up? The governors and just about every prominent politician in Borno and Yobe States say local politics is the fuel of the insurgency. Is the key to the resolution of this insurgency to be found in local politics? Does JTF have different capacities for different threats, when it can protect nine governors and yet fight daily street battles with gunmen? Could the entire visit have been an elaborate public relations gimmick to show that opposition politicians are safe, Borno state can be safe but some politicians and other citizens and foreigners are not? Could the Borno State and the Federal Government do more to improve security of lives and property as they did during the visit? What do they need to do this?

Just when you thought that the visit of nine governors to Maiduguri sent positive signals that even the insurgency has no-go areas; or, as the security people like to say, has had its back substantially broken, General Danjuma sends our spirits plummeting down. He described the fight against the insurgency as a northern civil war which needs a major effort from the region to resolve. When a General uses the term civil war, you cannot say he does not know what he is talking about. He says that people of the North are fighting faceless enemies in a war with no defined boundries and in which no one has immunity. This war has many casualties, which include the economy and social assets of the region. There is a war in the North alright, but it is not, strictly, a civil war. It is a war in which christians have been attacked and killed for being christians alone; and Muslims have been killed for every known and unknown reason by people who claim to be waging a war in the name of Islam. It is a war being fought against the Nigerian state, its laws and its agents by people who repudiate its foundations. It is a war in which the enemies multiply at a frightening speed. The JASLIWAJ now fights against the state alongside ANSARU and possibly other splinter groups. The Nigerian state itself quite possibly habours fifth columnists and rogue elements, and there are widespread suspicions that it is itself a major player in the war against the security and integrity of the state. It is a war that flows and ebbs on the logic of force and greed alone, and mediators are attacked as the enemy. But it is not a civil war. Certainly northerners are not fighting each other. They are all victims of an insurgency which holds everyone up as an enemy. The theater of conflict is the North. The insurgency and the non-combatant victims are northerners, Muslims and christians, all ethnic groups. The Nigerian state has flooded the North with military personnel, which apparently has never heard of guerilla warfare and how to fight it.

It is fitting that General Danjuma chose a Special Convocation at the Ahmadu Bello University Zaria to speak out with such passion against the fire threatening to burn down all of the legacies of the North, as well as its future. It is also fitting that he sees a solution in the capacity of northern elites to rally around and put it out. The frenzy of activities among northern elders and younger professionals and politicians suggests that Northerners recognize the fact that no one will put out this fire for them, if they do not do it. The threats the North and Nigeria face can be overcome, but they need resolute political energy and sincerity on the part of leaders to succeed. General Danjuma in one of the elders who should lead the way.