Signs and blunders

“History never looks like history when you are living through it. It always looks confusing and messy, and it always feels uncomfortable. John W. Gardner

It should surprise no one that the issue over whether President Jonathan will run in 2015 was made more or less a settled matter in the last two weeks. The emergence of Chief Tony Anemih as opposed to his other rivals for the position of Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the PDP was a significant factor in the jockeying for positions. The Chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur himself more or less affirmed the President’s plans to run. The President’s wife rallied PDP women around to mock the opposition and in her inimitable way, challenged 100 parties to try the PDP for size.

Then you had the familiar disclaimers from people who a few weeks ago were all over the place strutting as northern champions for the position. First governor Sule Lamido told a bewildered nation that he had never nursed an ambition to contest for the presidency. People shook their heads in amazement, and a few who had seen it all before concluded that old tricks were being pulled out of the bag. The travails of members of his family were being rumoured as screws being tightened to squeeze him out, and it was working. Then governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu screamed blue murder at attempts to smear and blackmail him over his much celebrated accusation of the President as a promise breaker. Whatever is being done to or against governor Aliyu, it is likely to be a while before he puts up his hand again when potential contenders are asked to show themselves. The one or two less courageous PDP governors who were also gearing to go will almost certainly lower their heads and profiles a bit more now.

But by far the fiasco around the attempts to remove the governor of River State, Rotimi Amaechi as Chairman of the Governor’s  Forum is the most significant indicator that the President will brook no challenge or opposition in the ranks. Known for some relative independence of mind and with a record of steeping on some very powerful toes, Amaechi’s sin in being mentioned as part of a north-south presidential ticket triggered a massive fight. The PDP turned inwards in a civil war involving its generals. The party and the Presidency pulled out all the stops to prevent his re-election as chair of the Governors’ Forum, that self – created behemoth which Chief Clark said represents a virtual opposition to his godson, the President. Twenty five PDP governors fought each other and others tagged along to pick up the pieces and reinforce their opposition against Jonathan’s administration. The primary constituency of the President, the south-south was torn to shreds, and the President’s men walked away licking their wounds after a bruising and unsuccessful fight. Amaechi himself and his supporters achieved a small victory, but they were reminded by their own bruises that President Jonathan’s people also pack a punch. Everyone got a tiny breathing space, but the fight is by no means over.

The alarm bells should start ringing, among those who worry over what 2015 portends. It does not make much sense now, when people say the President has not said he will run in 2015. Even among those most disposed to being charitable to him, events in the last few weeks will make it difficult to continue to give him the benefit of doubt. Nor does anyone believe the empty words mouthed by the President and those being chased away from aspiring, that 2015 is still too far away, and that there is still much work to do. The vicious fights to keep away opposition should convince Nigerians that the President wants a smooth sail towards the PDP ticket in 2015. His remaining threat are likely to come from Alhaji Atiku Abubakar or one or a number of PDP governors who will defy blackmail and other intimidating tactics to put up their hands once again. PDP governors are a very powerful lot within the party. If they have their ranks broken by President Jonathan, which is very likely, he is likely to secure another ticket. If the plan to create a PDP governors forum is resisted by some northern governors, this will create imminent crisis in the PDP the like of which has not been seen. If the President finds a way around resistance by some northern PDP governors, and succeeds in knocking people like Amaechi back into line, the PDP ticket will be his in 2014. What Nigerians say about his candidature and another four years of his presidency will then largely depend on the integrity of the electoral process.

There will be many legitimate concerns regarding the route to 2015. If the President has to start fighting this early and this badly against his own people for a ticket and victory in 2015, what does that say about the prospects for free and fair elections in 2015? If and or when he secures a ticket to run again in 2015 against substantial resistance from elements within the PDP, how would the fallouts be managed? If the resistance against another four years of a Jonathan presidency comes from the PDP, but it does not stop him, would there be large defections from the PDP into opposition parties? Would resistance feed off and reinforce dangerous faultlines around religion and region? What will be the fate of the PDP, if it fields a largely unpopular president who faces a distinct possibility of defeat from a stronger opposition? How desperately will the President want another four years? Desperate enough, for instance, to risk major crises within his own party, and compromising the integrity of the electoral process to avoid defeat? Will the nation survive a largely disputed election result, this time involving much wider interests and regions?

It can all be argued, of course, that President Jonathan will radically improve his record in office between now and 2014, and convince Nigerians that he deserves another term. It can be argued that he will win the legal arguments around his candidature in 2015. It can be argued that he will paper the severe cracks in his party, particularly at the level of governors, and smoothen resistance against another term in 2015. It can be argued that he will convince northern PDP governors and leaders to line up behind him again in 2014 and 2015. It can be argued that President Jonathan will be such an overwhelming favourite that the electoral process will return him to office without the slightest interference from the PDP.

All these can be argued, but the facts on the ground are that a Jonathan candidacy in 2015 has already been hurt badly. The claim that he is reneging on a promise to run for only one term in 2011 will cast a tall shadow on his integrity. The skirmishes to snuff out any hint of resistance from his party from the north, and rebellious elements from the south will suggest that his candidature will be about everything except his popularity. Some major blunders have been committed so far in pursuit of another term for President Jonathan in 2015. The signs point to more blunders involving muscle and other traditional PDP tactics to whittle down opposition. If these blunders produce a candidate that is the product of intrigues, tricks and contrived tensions, the opposition is likely to coast home to victory. Unless, that is, the PDP does not commit the biggest blunder of all, which is to attempt to compromise the electoral process.