“Some persons are likable in spite of their unswerving integrity.”
Don Marquis

It is difficult not to have some sympathy for the intense excitement of the ANPP, the CPC, and the ACN as they inch nearer to the first merger of political parties since 1999. They think they have got many things right this time. They are emphatically unanimous that only a merger of their parties will replace the PDP as the ruling party. They believe they have learnt all the right lessons from past mistakes. They have started early enough, a key asset in view of the many requirements they need to meet before they can be a party. They believe they have shown faith in each other by surrendering a substantial amount of cherished territories and ambitions, and overlooking past injuries. They are willing to walk into largely uncharted territory, leaning on each other to avoid booby traps and hostility from the PDP. They think they can handle treachery, fifth columnists, damaging ambitions, and an electoral umpire whose credentials for integrity they still suspect. Above all, they think they can defeat the PDP in an electoral contest which will be difficult to manipulate now that INEC is not dealing with opposition parties it can assault with impunity.

The optimism of the merging parties is receiving valuable fillip from the appearance of panic within the PDP at the prospect of the merger. Suddenly, a party long used to crises around ambitions of incumbents appears to be crossing traditional boundries. Its festering wounds which started with the emergence of Bamanga Tukur as national chairman appear to be worsening as governors flex muscles with the President. At the heart of this battle is the attempt by the President to assume full control of the party, an irreducible minimum made popular by President Obasanjo. The problem for President Jonathan is that he got the party national leadership but substantially lost the governors in the process – a fatal, unforgiveable mistake, coming from a President who was once a governor. His problem has been made worse because some of the governors resisting his men in Abuja want the same thing he wants – the presidency in 2015. Many others are on their way out, and they want firm assurances and guarantees that they will be both safe, free and still within the power loop after 2015. They want a President who can guarantee that, but they are not sure that Jonathan will win an election and protect them. One of them, on the other hand, especially one from the north, a region which feels substantially hard done by under Jonathan, may just likely rally the troops to win with massive financial resources, a few tricks here and there, and a prayer that the merger will fall apart at a critical moment.

The President appears to have chosen to improve his hand by bringing in Chief Anenih, and sacrificing Alhaji Bamanga. That move has increased the perception of panic. Governors who know the Chief’s reputation think the President has lost the first few battles in this war of nerves. The opposition thinks the President is playing his trump card long before the game is over, and he will have little to fall back on if the gambit fails to work. Every move he makes is seen either as a retreat or a concession from a President struggling to maintain some balance in a fast-shifting environment. He sends governors after rebellious governors, and only succeeds in creating more factions. He placates one ambitious governor, and another springs up with billboards and posters the next day.

Certainly, the opposition has reasons to draw some inspiration from the internal problems of the PDP, but it will do well to look beyond them. Their merger talks appear to have survived a number of pitfalls to produce a constitution and a logo largely because General Muhammadu Buhari, Senator Bola Tinubu and ANPP leaders have supported them fully and apparently, transparently. Negotiating teams appear to have been well chosen and briefed, and they have worked hard to deliver on target. Elementary mistakes have been made, such as the haste with which governors announced the proposed name of the party seeking merger, which played into hands of mischief makers. How the merger walks out of the name debacle will largely depend on its willingness to adopt a flexible and informed strategy, but it should also know by now that there are many more traps ahead.

The merging parties may be diverted by the internal squabbles in the PDP to ignore to fix their own problems. They will need to pay very close attention to provisions of the Electoral Act as they relate to merger of political parties, and avoid offending them. Their Conventions have to be flawless, or some members will resort to legal steps to seek redress, genuine or contrived, voluntary or paid for by the PDP, which will take up valuable time. The manner protem party offices are allocated and contested for will also have to be handled with great care. Ambitions and resources will clash; zones will bicker and quarrel over assigned positions, and veteran politicians will pore over the new constitution to see how provisions can be exploited.

Many of these problems will be mitigated by a firm and close supervision of the merger process and the bonding of many disparate groups into one party by party leaders. This is one potential area of problem for the proposed party. The ACN is reputed to be under firm control of Tinubu and governors, and is the most disciplined of the three in the merger. Its Convention had gone like clockwork, and it appears set to assume the role of a senior partner. The CPC has the advantage of having a very popular leader in many parts of the north, and the weakness of being the most indisciplined and disorganized party in the mergery. It will need to resolve massive internal problems before the merger, or it will have nothing to show as an asset except General Muhammadu Buhari. In the CPC he is unchallengeable. In a merged, bigger party, he will be open to challenges, and the rump of his CPC in the new party will fight with one hand behind their backs if they go into the merger in their present state. The ANPP, against all expectations, has stuck to the merger process, perhaps because it recognizes that a CPC-ACN  merger will eat up much of the little space it clings to. But it is having to fight a battle for integrity and trust on all fronts. Its leaders are widely suspected of pandering to PDP lollies. Deep wounds inflicted in over a decade of association and bitter separation between its members and those of the CPC are difficult to heal or ignore. It is seen as the weak link in the merger chain, an image some of its leaders court daily by associating with the PDP.

But by far the biggest problem of the merger will be what roles its leaders will play. It is no longer a secret that General Muhammadu Buhari want Nigerians to trust him with a mandate in 2015. What are the ambitions of Senator Bola Tinubu? Does he want an elective office, or will he be content to pull the strings of power? How will he be disposed to a Buhari candidature in 2015? What do the ANPP bigwigs want? Can they live with a Buhari candidature, or will they team up with others in the merged, bigger party to scheme for another flagbearer? How would the party cope with intrigues and ambitions, in a contest where there are no fallback positions, except to join the PDP or become irrelevant?

There are many other challenges which the merging parties have to face. Merging may ultimately turn out to be only one step in a long process to wrest power from the PDP. Bonding the party around issues and candidates will be a much more challenging step. Keeping an eye on the electoral process is also a major challenge, because even a bigger, merged party can be rigged out. But if it can improve its internal cohesion and avoid intra-party disputes which sap energy and divert attention, the merging opposition may defeat the PDP in 2015, no matter who flies its flag.