SECURING THE ELECTIONS

At a meeting to review security plans for the forthcoming elections, the Council of State, which is made up of Mr. President, former Heads of State, Governors and former Chief Justices, agreed that military personnel would be deployed  nationwide at least 48 hours before the elections. The troops will complement Police and other security agencies to ensure that Political thuggery and other forms of violence are not allowed to affect the conduct of the elections. The meeting also took briefings from the National Security Adviser, Chairman of INEC and Inspector-General of Police on arrangements for secure and credible elections.

          The decision to deploy troops in large numbers throughout the Country before, during and after the elections is not new in Nigeria, but it does remind us that we are still involved in conducting electoral competition as if we are at war with each other. Ordinarily, the Police and other supplementary security personnel should suffice in terms of providing comfort and safety for election officials, voters and the public. But in Nigeria, our experience has shown that the challenges we face during elections are way beyond the capabilities of these agencies to handle. The mobilization of armed troops has regrettably become routine, but it has many dimensions.

          When citizens wake up to find armed soldiers literally on their doorsteps a day or two before elections, they get scared. In 2007, many people complained that the presence of large numbers of armed military personnel discouraged them from going out to vote. High visibility of armed personnel creates the impression that conflict is about to break out, and it tends to heighten the fears and apprehensions of many people. Many prospective voters simply choose to forego their right and duty to elect their leaders because of fears that the presence of soldiers means trouble is about to break out.

          There are also legitimate concerns that armed troops may not be adequately briefed on their duties. In the past, they made their presence known by riding around in towns and cities before election dates to announce their presence, and thereafter, took their places on streets and other areas where their presence alone should stop potential troublemakers. But on election days, many of them are engaged in controlling movements, interrogating pedestrians and drivers, and generally enforcing the restriction of movements. This task is pregnant with potentials for pitching the public against troops, particularly when the public is unaware of the exact nature of the role of the troops. 

          Most Nigerians will welcome any move to ensure that the elections are violent-free. We have lost too many lives, and shed too much blood already even before a single ballot is cast. While Nigerians will welcome troop presence, it will be of tremendous assistance to the troops, the public and the electoral process if the troops are acquainted with the basic requirements of their tasks. This will involve, among others, an understanding of what the elections involve, and what voters can or cannot do. One area which is important to impress on the military, the police and all security agencies is the decision of INEC that accreditation of voters will now start at 8am and end at 12.pm, while voting will commence at 12.30. This means that millions of voters will be required to leave their homes early, and stay at polling stations until the elections are over. For the purposes of crowd and movement control, security agencies need to appreciate this, and allow movement of people early in the day.  

          There will also be the need to appreciate the fact that large numbers of people will stay at the same spot, which are polling stations, for long periods. Attention needs to be paid to managing potentials for conflict and enforcing restrictions for movement in and around those areas. Security agents need to be firm but flexible, and should demonstrate the type of disposition which will give voters, officials and the public assurances of their safety and security. Above all, no security agent should get involved in the actual election process beyond what the law prescribes for him or her.

          It is unfortunate indeed, that the manner in which politicians have conducted all past electoral campaigns, including this one, have brought us to a situation where election days, which are supposed to be happy and festive occasions, are approached with fear, foreboding and apprehension by Nigerians. No politician from any party should complain that 48 hours before elections, and until after results are declared, Nigerians will live like a people under foreign military occupation. But ordinary Nigerians should complain. This is not what we want to see every time we are about to choose those who should receive our mandate to govern. Those who intend to use violence to disrupt the elections should be firmly dealt with by the soldiers and security agents. Those who simply want to go out and vote and return home in peace should be encouraged and protected to do so. Those who cannot vote, or do not want to vote should stay off the streets on all polling days. The deployment of security agents should take special cognizance of rural areas where the most electoral abuses occur, but often with little violence. Election rigging is the worst form of violence against the people; and while some security agents should protect voters officials and the public, others should be deployed to protect our votes, especially in rural areas. The important point to be made to all Nigerians is that those who do not intent to break the law should have nothing to fear; and those who should protect voters, officials and the public should be friendly but firm in the discharge of their responsibilities.          

THE ELUSIVE NORTHERN CONSENSUS CANDIDATURE

With just a few days to go to the first elections which will determine who our next Senators and Members of the House of Representatives will be, the three Presidential Candidates of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) General Muhammadu Buhari, the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau; and the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Malam Nuhu Ribadu are reported to be engaged in talks to explore the possibility of agreeing that one of them may get the nod from the two others to stand against Jonathan as a northern consensus candidate. Many Nigerians have given up on the idea that the three, either on their own, or through the facilitation of some powerful northern-based pressure groups, could agree on one of them to take up the challenge of defeating President Jonathan on April 9^th. Yet there are million more northerners who, perhaps naively, hope that this can happen, and are fervently praying and encouraging them to succeed. The next day or two will reveal whether they do succeed, but the realities on the ground clearly show that they are involved in an impossible task.

          The idea of a consensus candidate from the four northern PDP members was originally a PDP idea, motivated by the indignation and sense of betrayal felt by many northern political elite that President Jonathan had no business contesting for the Presidency in 2011 because it is still the unexpended turn of the north to the slot until 2015. It is now history that the efforts of the four, through a political contraption called Northern Elders Political Forum, produced former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as a consensus candidate. He took up President Jonathan, and was humiliatingly trounced, largely with the active support of northern PDP governors. The fallout from the PDP quarrels over the zoning and rotation principle gave the C.P.C and the ACN a massive boost in many parts of the country, but principally in the north.

          Many people expected that the nation would have heard the last of consensus, or zoning, or even of the chances of the PDP to win the presidency, given the damage it seemed to have inflicted upon itself.       All three of the major parties which could have seriously challenged the PDP fielded northern candidates with heavy liabilities, and further weakened the chances of the north to produce a candidate or a strategy guaranteed to defeat Jonathan. The CPC’s sole significant asset is General Muhammadu Buhari and his phenomenal following; but it suffers from his larger-than-life domination of his Party, and the stranglehold of a few of his trusted lieutenants over him. The Party failed to successfully avail itself of an excellent opportunity to enter into a strategic electoral alliance with the ACN, largely because it apparently believes it can win the presidency on its own.

          The ANPP suffered from massive depletion of former members, and of severe internal wranglings among its major financiers such as Governors, such that its only asset today is Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. He, and only he, can decide what the Party does, and he has not indicated a willingness to mend fences with General Buhari and yield any grounds to him. Malam Nuhu Ribadu is a passenger on someone else’s vehicle, and cannot go further or in a different direction than the owner of the vehicle decides. He is a good candidate and a serious Nigerian who represents a fresh face in Nigerian politics, but he is little more than an errand boy to Chief Bola Tinubu. Chief Tinubu and his advisers have got their fingers burnt times without number in their bid to strike some form of electoral arrangement between their party, the ACN and the CPC. It will be difficult to see how this party, not Malam Ribadu, unless he renounces his membership of the ACN and his candidature, can now collapse itself into the ACN. It is also difficult to see how Malam Shekarau can swallow his pride and massive loss of resources by yielding the ground to Buhari. What will be most impossible of all will be to see Buhari concede his chances to either Shekarau or Ribadu.

          These, in a way, are what these talks are all about. Of course, they are also significant public relations stunts, because none of the three candidates wants to be seen as shunning an opportunity to help the north defeat Jonathan. Still, those who say that nothing is impossible in Nigerian politics will continue to hope. There are suggestions that two parties may encourage their members to vote en-mass for candidates of one of the Parties in the Senatorial and House of Representatives elections. If the results show a resounding success by a party other than the PDP, the voting public may be swayed to vote for a non-PDP Presidential  candidate; one among the three who are now talking. But which one; and at what cost? If, for the sake of argument, the ANPP and ACN support Buhari’s bid for the Presidency by throwing their weight behind his party in the national legislative elections, and he either wins the presidential contest out-rightly or secures a run-off opportunity, they may demand massive, reciprocal concessions at the Gubernatorial and State Assembly elections. If they do, the nation could conceivably end up with a hybrid national assembly, either a CPC or PDP presidency, and State Governors who come from many different parties. This will have a serious implication for the long-term sustenance of an electoral strategy, which may be difficult to translate into governance.

          But all these are mere speculations that do not even take cognizance of the fact that the PDP is not sitting idly bye to see an alliance defeat it. The PDP is taking comfort from the near certainty that these talks on consensus will also fail. The Party will capitalize on the fact that the presidential elections will almost certainly involve one major candidate from the south and three from the north, who will certainly split the region. They will expect that the worst that can happen is a run-off between Jonathan and another northern candidate, but the PDP will do everything possible, and hopefully legal, to prevent a run-off, particularly with Buhari.

          At this late hour in the campaigns, there are people who still think a deal can be struck to produce a northern candidate against Jonathan. This lingering and sentimental yearning is self-defeating for a north which, even with three candidates, can win against Jonathan, and all this talk about consensus is simply diverting energy and attention from the need for more hardwork and improvements of political linkages with the south. The talk about consensus is a painful reminder that all three northern candidates are largely limited to the north. Even Ribadu’s much-touted South-West support is rooted in the desire of the ACN to make inroads into the north, and Ribadu is little more than an instrument in that direction.

          It is ordinary voters who will choose the next Nigerian president. Many will vote for candidates; or tribe; or religion; or personality. So long as everyone’s’ votes count, Nigerians will live under the leadership of a validly-elected leader. They have nothing to fear over who is validly elected, provided the elections are not rigged. Nigerians, including those from the north, should be allowed to choose their leaders freely. They can decide for themselves. If northern politicians make it impossible for one of them to be the next president, northerners should not be scared that a southern presidency will be a disaster for the north. If other Nigerians vote with them and produce a northern president, they should not be made to feel that a northern president will only implement a northern agenda. A consensus candidate may be good for politicians, but may not be good for other Nigerian.   

GENERAL BUHARI’S ENTOURAGE

When the Congress for Progressive Change Presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari attempted to visit some Emirs at their Palaces during a campaign tour of Nassarawa State, three of them abandoned their palaces or locked their gates against the General and his frightening entourage. One of the Emirs who received advance written request to receive the General wrote back with the excuse that he was too ill to receive the General. In Nassarawa town, when the Emir was nowhere to be seen, youth who accompany the General shouted that the Emir has run away. The Emir of Keffi who reportedly locked his gates also had Buhari’s youthful followers shouting that the Emir has run away out of fear.    

          It is possible that the Emirs in Nassarawa State who avoided the General at great cost to their dignity have heard of what happened when the CPC flag bearer visited the Emir of Zazzau. Many among the thousands of mostly young people who accompanied the General to the Emir’s palace reportedly abused the Emir, and broke doors and windows in a bid to witness the meeting the Emir an the General. Young people said many unprintable things about the Emir, and even the General made a comment about how difficult it is for him to control his supporters.

          It has now become an established trademark of General Buhari’s campaign that he is accompanied by thousands of motorcyclists and other young people. This unruly entourage of the General is a genuine reflection of the incredible and genuine support which he enjoys among the poor and young people, as well as many millions who believe he represents their only hope for a better Nigeria. They will follow him everywhere, even if he tells them not to. They will also resist any attempt to limit their access to him, and, as happened in Jos a few days ago, some would even die while following him.

          General Buhari himself is now a captive of the huge, unruly crowd which follows him around. He cannot get out of his jeep to address crowds. It must pain him to see many young people put their lives and limbs at risk to demonstrate their support for him. Millions of his supporters cannot get close to him, or even catch a glimpse of him because of the type of people who follow and surround his motorcade. His supporters clash with police; clash with opposition supporters, and tear down every poster or billboard of the opposition in their path. His campaign rallies are very brief affairs, because his security details have to struggle to get him to the venue, fight crowds to let him speak, and have to fight their way out to every gathering.

          For most politicians, General Buhari’s awesome following will be worth its weight in gold. But his many other supporters who do not ride ‘achaba’, who are employed and are responsible citizens with families, are worried about the image being created by the General’s unruly entourage. Many of the young people who accompany the General see every form of authority as an enemy of the General, which must be insulted, challenge or destroyed. If the General does not respect or value Emirs and Chiefs, he will not visit them. It must embarrass him therefore when his followers rain abuses or then when he visits them. As an experienced politician, General Buhari knows that most traditional rulers are fully and unconditionally under the influence of State Governors. Many may even be instructed not to receive him by these same Governors. Yet they get abused by young people who have been brought up to respect these institutions.

          If General Buhari will win the Presidential elections, he will need the support of all levels and sections of the Nigerian Society. There are many people in authority who believe that the General will be a good leader, and they are not afraid of his Presidency. He is also not the only honest Nigerian, and many other honest Nigerians identify with him. There are millions of rural dwellers, married women, artisans and unemployed people who like him, and will vote for him. But he has a problem in the type of people who appear to have made him their property. The General needs to lead all sections of Nigeria, not just those who have motorcycle to ride dangerously. He is not a candidate of the undisciplined, unruly and abusive supporter who approaches the General’s campaign as war between the General and the nation.

          The Generals scary entourage are doing his campaign a serious disservice by alienating many Nigerians who want to see him run a responsive, inclusive and peaceful campaign. He has said many times that he is a committed democrat who abhors violence in any form. If his followers truly want to see him emerge as the next President, they need to allow him the space to run a campaign befitting a future President. More and more Nigerians want to see him and hear him speak about issues that matter to them. These Nigerians include many members of the elite. When his supporters abuse them, they alienate them from the General, and quite possibly create a resentment which may cost him valuable votes.

          General Muhammadu Buhari has a good chance to become our next President. But he has to take charge of his campaign strategy and limit the damage which his frightening and unruly entourage causes him wherever he travels. The only way he can become the next President is by generating the support of a wide cross-section of Nigerian votes, from Damaturu to Lagos, Sokoto to Yenagoa. His fanatical supporters should allow him the space to show other Nigerians why they love him so much.

AND FINALLY

Finally, the Northern Political Elders Forum has told President Goodluck Jonathan that it will not support his bid for the Presidency, after months of meetings and speculations. When it did this, it chose to do it together with another self-appointed leaders of the Igbo people under the name of the Igbo Political forum, which itself also said it has withdrawn its support for the President. Both groups say that President Jonathan’s attitude and approach to them throughout their talks and negotiations with him were deceptive, principally because he refused to give a definitive commitment on the issue of his exit in 2015, and which zone the presidency will shift to after his tenure. The two groups have told President Jonathan that he is on his own as far as the North and East are concerned.

          The sticking point as far as the Jonathan and the Northern Political Elders Forum is concerned has always been his decision to ignore the zoning and rotation formula of the PDP, and the Elders’ insistence that the Presidency must remain in the north until 2015. Many Nigerians have asked the simple question over the value of the talks, once the zoning and rotation issue was settled by Jonathan’s resounding victory over the elders’ consensus candidate, Atiku Abubakar at the PDP National Convention. It has been clear from that point that the zoning principle was dead and buried, at least by President Jonathan and his supporters. So it made very little sense to discuss with a man who you accuse of taking what does not belong to him, and is sitting comfortably on it.

          Then the talks moved on to President Jonathan’s promise to serve for only one term. Politicians being the opportunists that they will always be, the Elders Forum then agreed to meet with Jonathan to see whether he will  guarantee that the Presidency returns to the north when he finishes with it in 2015 as he promised. The President refused to give that guarantee, because the South East also wanted a shot at the presidency in 2015. If he had promised the north that he can guarantee that it has the presidency back in 2015, he would have substantially alienated the South East. When he failed to give this guarantee either to the North or East, both their self-appointed leaders dismissed him as insincere.

          But in point of fact, President Jonathan is not in a position to give either the North or the East any guarantees. No President, no matter how powerful, can guarantee that a specific region will produce a PDP candidate in 2015. Certainly if Jonathan were to win the forthcoming elections, and, as he promised, he will serve for only one term, he will be in no position to guarantee who his successor will be, or from what zone. It will be even more surprising if anyone will believe him, particular among northern PDP leaders who feel his sense of betrayal most acutely, having taken it upon themselves to fight him over it. It will amount to asking President Jonathan to give the north what he does not, and cannot have; when he is also accused of taking from it what rightly belongs to it.   

          Both the Northern Political Elders Forum and President Jonathan therefore went through the motion of discussing an issue they knew very well had a futile and unproductive ending. They knew he will never publicly or secretly promise the north a presidency in 2015. He knew they will not abandon their insistence that the zoning principle is sacrosanct, and they will commit political suicide if they were to turn around and endorse him. President Jonathan is also cognizant of the paperweight influence of the Northern Elders, since he trounced their much-touted consensus candidate. The Elders, being experienced politicians, also knew all along that President Jonathan’s people know very well that real power in the PDP north lies with the Governors, and an endorsement by the Elders will only have a symbolic effect. In the end, neither President Jonathan nor the Elders got what they wanted, beyond a clever use of the media to show Nigerians that as experienced politicians, they place a premium on dialogue.    

          As for the Igbo Political Forum, a collection of Igbo politicians who are still nursing fresh wounds from recent altercations within the PDP in which they lost out, their purported withdrawal of support from President Jonathan will have even less of an effect in terms of his  chances in the East. Both the Northern Political Elders Forum and the Igbo Political Forum were angling for the same concession from President Jonathan, which is a public commitment to hand over the PDP Presidential ticket to one of them. Both groups in fact argue that they are now convinced that Jonathan will not go in 2015, and his refusal to state whether the north or East will have the slot after him indicates an unacceptable level of insincerity. The Igbo Political Forum also knows that it has virtually no clout to make a difference in the South-East, which is substantially up for grabs since it has neither a major party or candidate in contention in the elections. If Jonathan had promised the North a presidency in 2015, the Igbo Forum would have cried to the high heavens, and would count the north among its enemies. If Jonathan had promised the South East the Presidency in 2015, the northern elders would have pitched their tents again the South East for receiving stolen goods.  

          Now that Jonathan has been told that he has no support from a few northern PDP elders and a few Igbo politicians, he will be well advised to concentrate on convincing genuine northern and Igbo voters why they should vote for him. The end of these dubious talks will also be a relief to many northerners, who resented the idea that a few self-appointed elders can treat the region as if it is their property to give to President Jonathan.. The withdrawal of the support for Jonathan by a few Igbo politicians who have presumed to speak for an entire region where PDP Governors have only a marginal control of affairs will also bring an end to a farce which Jonathan’s people knew all along was being played out by politicians who have been schemed out of PDP affairs.

          Now that self-appointed politicians from the North and East have drawn the curtains on attempts to deliver entire regions to selected candidates, perhaps the political terrain will be more even. Voters, including those with sympathy for the PDP will feel freer to vote candidates of their own choice. President Jonathan will now have to speak directly to ordinary voters from the North and East, rather than through a conclave of party elders who are standing between him and them. Other Nigerians from Parties who have no Elders Forum to negotiate their future will also have their say in terms of which candidates they vote for. This is the beauty of the democratic process. It is the individual voter who decides the leaders, not a small, self-appointed group who chooses for him.     

THE NORTHERN ECONOMIC SUMMIT

On Thursday 17^th of March, the G-20, a group of pro-Jonathan PDP elders organized a Northern Economic Summit at the Trade Fair Complex, Kaduna. The Summit was preceded on Wednesday by a Technical Session of Experts which examined the nature of the underdevelopment of the north, its economic assets and strengths as well as limitations and weaknesses. It also examined options available to the region, and the roles which Local, State and Federal Governments, the Private Sector and the communities can play in re-inventing the northern Nigerian economy and placing it on the path of growth and development.  The Summit was attended by President Goodluck Jonathan, Vice President Mohammad Namadi Sambo, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr. Oladimeji Bankole and a host of other dignitaries. Papers were presented on various aspects of the Northern Nigerian economy, with recommended strategies on creating synergies and momentum among governments, the Private Sector and the communities in the North. In the end, a number of recommendations were adopted, and a commitment was made to pursue strategies for implementing them, but with a specific slant towards Jonathan’s Presidency.

          The Summit provided ample evidence of the deeply paralyzing poverty of the north. This poverty was evident in the obvious fact that the Summit was organized basically to shore up support for President Jonathan in the north by a group which is virtually irrelevant in the North or current Nigerian politics. Although it adopted an excellent strategy of attempting to focus on, and find solutions to underdevelopment of the north, this was not its primary goal. Consequently, it was boycotted by major segments of the Northern political establishment, intelligentsia and private sector, largely because these had issues to settle with President Jonathan and his G20 supporters.

          But the most glaring absence was that of Governors, most of them from the PDP stock, and the group with the most to gain by the Summit, and with the most to say about reviving the northern economy and addressing its dangerous levels of poverty and insecurity. It could be the case that many PDP Governors are attempting to put some distance between them and President Jonathan as a strategy for successfully walking a political tightrope in their respective States. It could also be the case that Northern Governors have nothing to offer in fora such as the Northern Economic Summit, although many of them sent Deputies and other officials. Or perhaps they were too busy campaigning to be re-elected, or install their own successors into offices which will have a tremendous impact in the lives of Northerners.

          The poverty of leadership in the North is evident in the type of people who played key roles in the Summit. These elderly gentlemen are both the cause and the consequence of the failure of the North to have a leadership succession plan. People who worked with the Sardaunas and Balewas are still clinging to the strings of powerlessness of the North, when their own grandchildren should be running the affairs of the North. It is little wonder that the house built by the leaders of their generation is fast crumbling. The North is busy fighting against itself in Plateau, in Bauchi and Borno states. It cannot find a common political platform to confront its many political problems; and its young people are either being wasted as almajirai, or are receiving no education or skills even though some of them go to schools; or wait every four years for elections so that they can earn a few Naira as political thugs.

          The north has frittered away its huge potential to develop as Africa’s entire breadbasket. Its infrastructure has decayed beyond repairs. It has been so substantially de-industrialized that even small and medium scale enterprises have virtually disappeared. The north now virtually lives on subventions from petroleum resources, and is being deservedly treated as a beggar region in a nation that by the day moves further ahead of it.

          These were some of the revelations of the Northern Economic Summit, an event engineered to give President Jonathan a foothold into political north. If President Jonathan had looked very deeply into the type of crowd that attended the Summit, he would have observed that it represented a fringe in the north, and may not, as it appears to promise him, deliver the north to him. He would also have wondered about what became of the old north, whose awesome political clout made it the bedrock of Nigerian politics. If it has to take President Jonathan’s supporters to organize an Economic Summit to look at the north, this should tell him that the north’s disunity may not make it difficult for him to win an election, with or without the old north. Because without leadership the old north is gone.  

THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES

Last week, Nigerians who have the luxury of electrical supply, a television set and a satellite facility to tune into a television channel called NN24 witnessed a debate between a few running mates of Presidential candidates. A few days later, another debate involving the Presidential candidates of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Malam Nuhu Ribadu and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), General Muhammadu Buhari was televised by the same channel. President Goodluck Jonathan and Arch Muhammad Namadi Sambo, the PDP candidate and running mate respectively, boycotted the debate.  Their argument for refusing to participate in the debate was that it was not organized by the Broadcasting Organization of Nigeria, BON, which had organized such debates in the past. The debates were intended to afford Nigerians the opportunity to assess the candidates and their running mates as well as provide additional avenues for the candidates to acquaint Nigerians with their visions; plans, programmes, and solutions to the country’s problems.

          The debates were notable for a number of reasons. First, they were watched by quite possibly less than 1% of Nigerians who will vote in a few weeks time. To watch one of the three candidates or their running mates, you had to have the type of luxury which is far beyond the reach of the vast majority of Nigerians. Those who were rich enough to afford NEPA or generator and satellite television may not even vote, so the debate may have had little beyond an entertainment value. The bulk of those who will vote lost the opportunity to see the three candidates answer challenging questions on their character, their records, their plans and programmes, and their weaknesses. The vast majority of Nigerians who have neither electric power nor television sets do not know how the candidates will tackle insecurity, corruption, decaying social and economic infrastructure, the Niger Delta insurgency, or why they are better than the other candidates. If as a Nigerian you have not attended a rally where a Presidential candidate spoke because it was too far or too risky; and you have not seen the debates, chances are that you will be voting for a candidate on any basis other than his plans or vision for our country. Those who have the power to choose therefore have no knowledge to make an informed choice.

          The debates were also notable in terms of the failure of the PDP candidates to participate in them. After much prevarication and petty complaints, the President and his Deputy failed to stand on the podium alongside other candidates to address Nigerians. By now, public comments on this major blunder would have registered on the PDP Presidential flag bearers. It is clear that they are either afraid that the debate will expose their weak grasp of the nation’s problems and their solutions; or that their refusal to attend the debate reflects a thinly-veiled contempt for the opinion of Nigerians regarding their ambitions of winning the elections. Whichever is the reason behind the failure of President Goodluck Jonathan and his deputy to participate in the debate, it must be clear to them by now that they have lost an excellent opportunity to seize the initiative in the current campaigns. None of the candidates is better placed than President Jonathan to provide solutions to Nigeria’s problems, having been Vice President and subsequently President in the last four years. He has facts, figures, experience and the benefits of being on the seat of power.  He would have stood head-over-shoulders over other candidates as far as issues were concerned. Unfortunately for him and the PDP, that opportunity has been lost, and it will be difficult to see him regain grounds in another debate organized by another organization, assuming his competitors agree to attend, that is.

          Another reason why the debates were notable was the revelation in terms of the composure, knowledge and articulation of the candidates. Governor Ibrahim Shekarau won the debate, according to most viewers, by a mile. He was composed, confident and convincing. He was articulate, and allowed much of his experience as Governor to guide his vision for a possible Presidency. Malam Nuhu Ribadu presented the face of a new generation of Nigerian leadership, but his sincerity was dampened by the obvious lack of depth in understanding Nigeria’s problems. His comparative lack of experience showed glaringly, even though it was more than made up by his passion and openness. General Muhammadu Buhari fell short of many people’s expectations, given his vastly-superior record of experience and age. Where Nigerians expected him to come up with clear, made-to-measure solutions to endemic problems, he dwelt on clichés and tired policies. For a man who embodies the desire for real change, there was very little in his performance to put him in a class different from Malam Shekarau and Malam Ribadu. For a man who has a serious image problem with the Nigerian elite, the debate provided the General with an excellent opportunity to debunk many of the undeserved labels which has been pinned on him by the elite. He failed to do this.

          The televised debates were of very limited value as far as the vast majority of Nigerians who will vote are concerned. They did, however, expose the yawning gap between the candidates’ plans and an electorate which is still being mobilized only on ethnic, religious or regional sentiments. For the candidates who participated, every one of them was a winner. The losers were President Jonathan and Vice President Namadi Sambo who were either too afraid to face their rivals in an open debate, or too contemptuous of public opinion to submit themselves and their plans for a possible presidency for public scrutiny.   

AFRICA’S SHAME OVER LIBYA

At the Commissioning Ceremony of the new Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Ajomugobia lamented the hypocrisy of the Western World which is now involved in a full assault on Muammar Ghaddafi of Libya, while an impostor in Cote d’Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo is shooting down defenseless old women. This one sentence comment on what is going on in two important parts of Africa is all that Nigeria can make, when, in fact, it should have led the way towards a more comprehensive intervention in both Cote d’Ivoire and North Africa long before the shameful tragedies unfolding in both Libya and Cote d’Ivoire.

          As if taking a cue from the feeble comment of Nigeria’s Foreign Minister, leaders of Uganda, South Africa and Zimbabwe have also issued statements condemning the West’s air strikes in Libya. The leaders of Uganda and South Africa were members of a five-member African leaders group set up by the African Union to find a solution to the Libyan crisis, before the western nations used their usual muscle in the United Nations to bomb the initiative out of existence, and impose their own version of a solution to the Libyan crisis. In fact, South Africa actually voted for the United Nation’s resolution which authorized military action in Libya ostensibly to protect civilians. Now President Zuma accuses the Western powers of exceeding the mandate of the U.N by adopting regime-change tactics, and seeking the outright removal of Ghaddafi. Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe says the West is not bombing Libya to save Ghaddafi’s civilians from him, but is after Libya’s oil wealth. The African Union itself has called for an end to the military intervention in Libya.

          Events in Libya and the belated and ineffective lamentations of the African Union and a few African leaders will remind Africans and the world how tragically weak Africa is today. It is beyond doubt that Muammar  Ghaddafi should have stepped down weeks ago, as has been demanded by his people, after 42 years in power. He defied the legitimate demands of his people, unlike the Presidents of Tunisia and Egypt, and therefore deserved to be pushed out. But Africa should have taken the initiative to lend a hand in this direction, and not allow the West to do so. Africa’s shame and weakness is now being exposed by its leaders through belated and embarrassing condemnation.

          Today, hundreds of thousands of Libyans are fighting each other, and many more will die before Ghaddafi is ousted or killed. Hundreds of thousand more citizens are in hiding from both Ghaddafi’s troops and the bombs of Western powers. Many will be caught in the crossfire and die, after suffering many years of Ghaddafi’s misrule and the hostility of the same western powers. In the end, Ghaddafi will almost certainly die or lead his country into a bitter civil war. The West would have finally achieved a long-sought for objective of removing an irritant in the form of Ghaddafi, and of re-asserting itself into the affairs of Libya and Africa. The Libyan people will have to chart a future largely on the terms of the Western powers who will claim credit for removing Ghaddafi, and who will demand their price in allegiance and oil, as they do in Iraq and Afghanistan.

          And all these because Africa doesn’t have the political clout and will to have been decisive in demanding, at all cost, that Ghaddafi left when his people demanded that he did. Africans are left to watch daily bombardments of another African country, the killing and maiming of thousands of fellow Africans by French, US and British bombs, and our leaders, who themselves do not differ much from Ghaddafi in terms of their records or commitments to their people. Africa is back to the dark days of naked imperialism, when foreign weapons and armies will invade at will and affect whatever changes they desire. If it is Libya today, it could be Zimbabwe tomorrow or any other African country.

          The Libyan tragedy is even more painful when we remember that in Cote d’Ivoire, there is a criminal impostor who is using government troops to kill women, and keep himself in power, while the elected leader of the country is running from pillar to post in his hotel room trying to get Africa and the international community to help him actualize the mandate of his people. We have not seen western planes bombing Laurent Gbagbo’s strongholds. We have not seen African leaders sending troops to help Alassane Outtara. The U.N Security Council has not authorized use of force to protect civilians in Cote d’Ivoire from the rampaging troops of the impostor, Laurent Gbagbo in Cote d’Ivoire.

          Ghaddafi has brought death, pain and suffering on the Libyan people because he believes he is greater than their will. Africa has allowed the Western powers to exploit its weaknesses and poverty to re-establish its control over our affairs. African leaders are guilty of unpardonable irresponsibility, perhaps because they are also afraid of their own people. Ordinary Africans now realize that they cannot rely on corrupt and weak leaders to protect them. They will continue to rise against these leaders, and they will rise against the western powers who maintain the leaders, and then turn around and bomb them when the people rise against them. The lessons from Libya are many; but the most important is that bad leadership will collapse under the weight of popular opinion, and the hypocrisy of western powers will not be lost on the African people.                 

THE LOWEST DEPTH OF THE 2011 CAMPAIGNS

          There is a dirty and shameful campaign going on in Kwara State involving a father, his son and his daughter that may very well represent the lowest point of indecency and bankruptcy of Nigerian politics. This campaign began when Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, his son, the present Governor of Kwara State and his daughter, Senator Gbemisola- Fawora all decided that they will pursue their political ambitions, using Kwara state people’s love and loyalty to Dr Saraki as a springboard.

          The problem is that all three, from the same family, are involved in contests that are to affect each other’s ambitions. Dr. Bukola Saraki is serving his second and last term as PDP Governor and wants to stand as Senator. He will therefore succeed his sister as Senator. His sister, who is a serving Senator wants to succeed him as Governor. Dr. Bukola Saraki thinks this will affect his chances of becoming Governor, particularly since he has already settled on a successor, and wants to continue to control Political affairs of the State. Their father, unable to settle this quarrel between a son who feels he has come of age, and is entitled to take over from his father as the godfather of Kwara politics, and an ambitious daughter who feels she is entitled to benefit from a legacy that makes every Saraki an automatic political winner, decided to pull out of the PDP and join an obscure little Party called Allied Congress Party of Nigeria. His daughter went with him to stand as its gubernatorial candidate. The father vowed to destroy the PDP which he helped build, because, as he alleged, some people have closed the doors to the Party in his face. Those people he refers to are his son, who then dug in and is actively campaigning for his Party, the PDP against his sister and her Party the ACPN. He is busy dismantling his father’s legacies in Kwara PDP and installing himself as its leader; while his father is working hard to show that he is still the godfather of Kwara politics, and can defeat his son and the PDP, as he did in 1999, and later turned around and defeated his former party, the ANPP in Kwara and Kogi states.

          There is nothing new or strange in siblings, or even father and son taking opposing positions in politics, or even contesting against each other. But the allegation by Senator Gbemisola Saraki that the Kwara State chapter of the PDP is planning to circulate posters showing her in complete nudity is adding a new and despicable dimension to this sibling war. The ACPN alleges that the printing of the posters has already been contracted, and that they will be circulated in churches and mosques in Kwara state.

          Perhaps as expected, the Kwara State PDP has dismissed the complains of Senator Gbemisola saraki as a wild allegation. The PDP says the allegation is the cry of a drowning politician seeking sympathy at all cost. It advised the Governor’s sister’s party to stop chasing shadows, because Kwarans are now wiser as the days of deceit are gone for good. The PDP said a lot more, but the essence of the response is to say that PDP will win the next elections in Kwara, and therefore defeat Senator Saraki, and her father, who is campaigning against her brother, and his own son.

          By all standards of judgment, the politics in Kwara state has degenerated to a level of indecency not seen in this country. Many people will say that this degeneration is inevitable, given the pivotal role of Dr. Olusola Saraki in the politics of the State; a role so powerful that he could also single-handedly change its political coloration at will, and install his son as governor and daughter as Senator in the same elections. So powerful has Dr. Saraki become that even when serious cracks began to appear in his family due to the ambitions of his children, it appeared no one could help him sort it out. Religious leaders jumped into the fray, with many attempts to use her gender against the Senator. Governor Bukola Saraki also had to walk a tight rope between aligning with President Jonathan to save his political career, and offending the phenomenal power base of his father in Kwara State. In the end, it is now a battle between father and son, and the daughter and sister just appears as collateral damage. This is what happens when too much power is concentrated in one person or one family, and the lessons from Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and many other countries appear lost to the Saraki Family.

          If Governor Bukola’s Party does succeed in defeating his father’s and sister’s party, it will be a sad end to the political career of Dr. Olusola saraki, a career that shows tremendous amounts of political dexterity and the fact that it is possible to generate genuine love of the people through generosity and affection for the ordinary people. Whoever wins, Bukola’s PDP or his father’s and sister’s ACPN, the family will be the loser, and in fact it has already lost considerable amount of respect, when it is alleged that a brother will be part of a plot to print and circulate his sister’s nude pictures to scuttle her political ambitions. Nigerians will ask; what is in public office that makes some Nigerians so desperate that they can sacrifice everything in its pursuit? Perhaps the best way of dealing with these types of desperate politicians is for decent Nigerians to abandon them altogether by voting for those who respect some boundaries for decency and decorum.

RELIGION IN OUR POLITICS

In Ogun State, a rabid campaign against former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s gubernatorial candidate centered around his faith is annoying the former President. Therefore, Obasanjo used a rally platform a few days ago to condemn those who use religious sentiments in political campaigns. He maintained that those who base their political choices on religion alone are ignorant of the diverse nature of the Nigerian people. The former President, who said his only sister is a Muslim, lamented the manner in which religion has become a major factor in Ogun Governorship contest. Ogun State is one of many States in Nigeria with large Muslim and Christian populations, but no Muslim Governor has ever been elected, even though Muslims claim to be in the majority.

          Former President Obasanjo’s concerns regarding the widespread use of religion as an instrument of political competition will find many supporters. Already, much of the tension around many of those competing for elective positions is centered around their faith. A substantial platform of the campaign against President Goodluck Jonathan, and the sentiments for a northerner as President is built around the argument being made that Muslims should not and cannot prefer a non-Muslim over a Muslim. General Muhammadu Buhari’s image has also been long dented by his political detractors who portrayed him as a religious bigot. His choice of a running mate in Pastor Bakare is also a major talking point, not just because he leads a Pentecostal Church, but because he was once a Muslim, before he converted to Christianity.  In States such as Kaduna and Ogun, the faith of candidates has become the single most important factor in the competitions in which the gubernatorial candidates are involved.

          In all cases where a substantial number of people take a political stand on religious grounds for some candidates, others also take a similar stand against them, even if reluctantly. When Christians perceive a hostility or opposition against a candidate only because he is a Christian, they almost instinctively rally around him, giving him a largely undeserved support. The same thing happens when a Muslim candidate is in a similar situation. Rarely are questions asked about the sincerity or piety of the candidate; or whether he will be a good leader to anyone at all. Worst of all, few people question whether the candidates themselves will merely use their faith as a political label to gain support.

          Without doubt, the bitter disputes around the PDP’s zoning and rotation principle and President Jonathan’s candidature has made the issue of religion in the current political campaigns even more prominent. There are still people who are making serious efforts to knock together some form of consensus around one single northern candidate who will take on President Jonathan. Many of these people are motivated by the desire to see a Muslim President sworn-in in May 2011.  There are also many who will do anything to prevent the emergence of a Muslim as President, in the name of defending the interest of Christians.      

          Into this dangerous fray now enters a vicious sectarian dimension. A renowned Muslim scholar is being widely reported to have said that a non-Muslim is preferable to a Muslim of another sect he does not lead. This intra-Muslim dimension, which resembles the deep resentment of Pastor Bakare by mainstream northern Christians because of his Pentecostal background, will further entrench the religious and sectarian factor into political campaigns. Religious sects are major sources of political mobilization, and in times of conflicts, they are also major sources of hostility.

          Nigerians are a deeply religious people. Many Nigerians would feel more comfortable under the leadership of one of their own, either in belief or ethnic group. But all major religions and the Constitution also enforce the requirements of justice and fairness on leaders, so that irrespective of a leader’s faith, all citizens must be treated equally. So why, we need to ask, do we put such premium on faith, when it is obvious that faith of leaders alone is no guarantee that they will be just and honest? The answer may lie in the sad fact that most of Nigeria’s leaders, Muslims and Christians alike, at all levels, have let their people down, so much that the only thing they can use to get electoral support is their faith. When leaders isolate their religious obligations from temporal obligations, they cannot lead well, or fairly. Needless to say, no corrupt person can be a good leader, whether he is a Muslim or Christian.

          The problem for Nigerians is that leaders have failed us so badly that they resort to peddling their faith, not their piety or competence, in order to get us to support them. They do not lead with the fear of God, and they seldom remember that there is a Day of Judgment. If they do not fear God, there is little reason to believe they will fear the electorate. The time has come when the electorate should vote for leaders who will exercise power because it belongs to God, and govern with honesty and sincerity. Their faith alone is insufficient to make them good leaders, and we should not struggle or die fighting for them. If we have to vote for one of our own faith because it is important to us, we should recognize that it is one of the benefits of a democratic system, which gives us the right to choose. We should also recognize that people from other religions are entitled to the same sentiments and the same right. But the God we serve has created our nation in such a way that no one can win a free and fair election on the basis of religion alone. To win, you must have the support of Muslims and Christians, and all ethnic groups.      

HOW WE SEE THE WORLD

Since the mass and spontaneous uprising of people across North Africa and the Middle East against their leaders, the world has suddenly become a much smaller place. Neither physical distance nor the peculiarities of issues in dispute matter anymore. What has become clear to all leaders and citizens is that an uprising is both imminent and inevitable in all countries where political rights are suppressed; where corruption has become endemic; and where people’s patience and tolerance has been taken for granted by their leaders. There is a raging debate here in Nigeria whether an uprising is possible or necessary, in the event of a widespread dispute over the results of the forthcoming elections.

          There are very disturbing signs that violent acts around the elections will get worse as we move nearer the polling days. No stronger evidence is needed for this than the demand by the leadership of the PDP that General Muhammadu Buhari, the leader and presidential aspirant of the CPC be disqualified by INEC for instigating violence among his supporters against the President, when he visited Gombe State. In point of fact, there have been many such incidents across a wide spectrum of the campaign trail, and both sides have accused each other of instigating violence. If citizens can throw stones and other missiles against the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and tear down his billboards and posters with impunity, it is time to begin to worry about the psychological disposition of many Nigerians towards our leaders and the forthcoming elections. Many Governors and other candidates now cannot venture into some areas within their constituencies, owing to threats or actual violence which has been meted out to them. The vast majority of those who engage in these violent acts are young people. Whether they are merely hired to perform these acts, or are so drugged that they can take huge risks by stoning the President, Governors and other candidates, or are motivated by such blind dislike for these candidates; the truth of the matter is that their actions give the nation serious cause to worry about its future. Young people who take to the streets to tear down billboards and posters; to battle other opposing gangs and lose lives and limbs; who stone leaders and create no-go areas for many of them unless they are accompanied by a whole army of security men, are not far from taking up arms against the authority in the event that they feel more gravely aggrieved.  

          Our young people see and hear and admire what happens in Tunisia, in Algeria, in Libya and Egypt, and while many Nigerians think events there cannot be replicated here, Nigerians need to pay attention to the lessons which our own young people are drawing from them. Culturally and politically, Nigeria differs substantially from North Africa; yet a major dispute around elections or disputed results will have a devastating effect on our country’s peace and unity. Our young people may be tempted to think that a massive protest against disputed results will result in a just and fair settlement, the way we saw leaders flee or resign in some parts of Africa. They may even think that sustained violence may redness electoral grievances. They may be tragically wrong, but the nation will have to pay a huge price to prove them wrong.

          Politicians are sowing seeds of genuine conflict centered around regions and religion. A disputed result is likely to pitch voters against a government. In Nigeria, it is also likely to pitch voters against voters. The dangerous ethnic and religious dimensions of the current campaigns, and the heated rhetoric which is already galvanizing many young people to engage in violent acts may draw the battle-lines in a protracted civil unrest, when citizens decide to exact revenge where they feel shortchanged; or where others feel they have to protect and defend what they have won. Since the leadership is part and parcel of these disputes, its actions are bound to be part of the problems, not solutions.

          There is still time to take a step back and limit the damage which the image of victory by young people in other lands has created in the minds of our young people, and the real difficulties which will arise in the event of a widely-disputed election result. The solution, of course lies in ensuring that the elections are free, fair and widely accepted. But we need to lower the current levels of violence, because no free and fair election takes place in a violent environment. 

MEND’S FRESH THREAT

The terrorist group, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta is reported to have issued fresh threats to commence a new bombing campaign in the Niger Delta, Lagos and Abuja. Using its traditional mode of communication and signature, the group said its planned attacks this time will be catastrophic, and warned Nigerians and foreigners not to ignore its warnings. The target of the new wave of terror attacks by the group appears to be to cripple the political campaigns for the April elections; as well as re-state the group’s undiluted hostility towards the government of President Goodluck Jonathan.

          The M.E.N.D terrorist group claims that the government of President Goodluck Jonathan has shown its unwillingness to address key grievances of the people of the Niger Delta. It complains that rather than confront the real issues, President Jonathan’s government has chosen instead to continue to dole out bribes to thugs, and plunder the resources of the Niger Delta into his presidential campaign. The group accuses the President of deceiving the world and Nigerians that there is peace in the Niger Delta. It draws a parallel between its campaign and the mass uprisings in North Africa, and warns that its own revolution will cripple the entire Nigerian oil industry with simultaneous bombings that has never been seen in this country.

          There is no foolproof guarantee that this latest threat by this group is false, although there have been instances in the past when threats were made which the group disowned. Whether it is genuine or not, and whether this terrorist group intends to unleash terror against fellow Nigerians because it has scores to settle with the government, it will be wise not to dismiss this threat altogether. The Police and other security agencies have said they are on the alert, and will respond appropriately to any threat from the group. This is reassuring, but Nigerians will still worry that we have to continue to live under the threat, real or imaginary, of these terrorists every time they decide to attack, kill and maim innocent citizens.

          It is now clear that the expensive and inherently risky Amnesty Programme of the Federal Government has not had much impact in terms of reducing the threat of violence from the Niger Delta. The 1^st of October cowardly attack on innocent citizens who were celebrating a landmark achievement in our history in Abuja took place when the Amnesty programme was in full swing. Former killers, bombers, kidnappers and rapists and their backers and financiers were all granted amnesty, even in the face of informed cynicism that the real culprits will not sheath their swords. Billions of Nigerian peoples’ money is being spent to teach former killers and kidnappers skills and to give them expensive education in as far away as Ghana, South Africa and Malaysia. Even if Nigerians are charitable enough to say that these former militants are not part of M.E.N.D, and will, in the long run, reduce the potential for M.E.N.D to tap into existing grievances and a ready army, it will be fair to ask how much difference the Amnesty Programme is making in terms of reducing the threat or actual manifestation of violent acts.

If M.E.N.D is still a potent threat, the question to ask is whether we are wasting public funds rehabilitating the wrong people. How much of the collective resources of the Nigerian people do we need to deploy to bring these recurring threats and actual attacks to an end? What does M.E.N.D want in specific terms, and can Nigerians afford to give it to them? If we cannot afford the price which these terrorists want us to pay, what do we do about them? Is the combined competence of all our security agencies, international intelligence agencies who are favorably-disposed to sharing information with us, and the political will of President Jonathan’s administration incapable of identifying who or what and where exactly M.E.N.D is? Even with its leader incarcerated in a South African prison, these terrorists retain the capacity to put fear into our hearts. And now, they threaten every Nigerian who attends a political rally in Lagos, Abuja or other cities; they threaten international oil companies; and they want to be seen as we see the spontaneous and popular uprisings in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt when they place bombs that kill fellow citizens who are poorer and more powerless than they are.

          It will be a major test of the will of President Jonathan and the competence of our security agencies, how they respond to this latest threat of these terrorists. Nigerians are tired of living in fear and threat. Someone somewhere must have a solution that will rid us of this problem comprehensively and finally. Whatever it takes to deal with the M.E.N.D must be contemplated and undertaken. The single most important issue before all candidates competing for our votes must be how they intend to deal with these threats coming from the Niger Delta. We should not vote for any candidate who has no clear-cut strategy and political will to give us the assurances we need that M.E.N.D and all organizations like it can be taken on and eliminated.   

THE NORTH IN NIGERIA

When the Arewa Consultative Forum held its Annual General Meeting on Tuesday 15th of March 2011, not a single State Governor from the North was in attendance. A ready and plausible excuse is that they are all busy on the campaign trail. Vice President Namadi Sambo attended though, which says a lot about President Jonathan’s desire to find a way into the heart and minds of the mainstream political north. General Yakubu Gowon was the only former Head of State in attendance. He, along with former President Shehu Shagari are generally seen as harmless old gentlemen who periodically make some sentimental statements about the north. Generals Babangida and Abdulsalami Abubakar, who were key players in terms of the North’s project to make former President Olusegun Obasanjo President in 1999, and whose eight years in power virtually decimated the remnants of quality northern political leadership were absent. In the end, the Annual General Meeting, under a new leadership of Alhaji Aliko Mohammed merely registered the political poverty of the North, and exposed its weaknesses in the context of the current contests over the Nigerian Presidency.

          Even in their absence, northern governors were the main issue. They were not there to hear Vice President Namadi Sambo promise that the Federal Government would continue the search for peace initiatives in Plateau, Bauchi and Borno States, a matter in which the Governors are key players, both as solutions and as sources of the problem. The Governors were not there to hear and make inputs into the promise by the Federal Government to enhance infrastructure in the north by dredging the River Benue up to Yola. They were not there to hear of the promise to revive the New Nigerian Newspapers through settling the long-standing liabilities of the company by the Federal Government. But most important of all, the Governors were not there to hear Vice President Namadi Sambo urge the new leadership of the ACF to revisit the works of past Northern leaders and rediscover their commitments towards political unity and rapid economic development.

          The Arewa Consultative Forum is gathering of mostly senior citizens from the north who like to think that they are keeping the ideals of a united northern Nigeria alive. The Forum claims to be non-partisan, but has recently undergone a major crisis and change of leadership over the roles of some of its leaders in the struggle to acquire the support of the north for President Jonathan’s presidential bid. It cannot influence what State Governors do. It cannot influence major politicians from different political parties in terms of strategies for strengthening northern political unity, and reducing its weaknesses. It is a socio-cultural organization which has no influence over what happens in Plateau State; or in Tafawa Balewa; or what to do about the faceless group called Boko Haram in the northern part of the north.

          It is little wonder therefore that northern Governors pay very little attention to it. After all, they know where power in the North truly lies. It lies in their hands. The realities of the political impotence of the ACF and the existence of power outside it makes the Jonathan-Namadi’s effort to enlist it as an asset all the more curious. Either they do not know that the ACF cannot help them, or they are so desperate for support that they will ask anyone in the North for it.

          As things stand today, the north has a major leadership deficit which will make its economic underdevelopment and insecurity even more serious. The amount of money our 19 Governors are spending in their campaigns, much of it in the form of public assets, put together, can make a huge difference to the lives of northerners. These are the people who have the real power to make a difference in the north. The biggest expenditure they incur presently is for re-election, or support for Mr. President’s re-election. General Muhammadu Buhari, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau and Malam Nuhu Ribadu’s entire campaign funds may not equal the amount which three or four northern governors spend. These candidates will compete against each other; and against President Goodluck Jonathan with the active support of most northern Governors. How, then can the North achieve the political goal of capturing the Presidency in April?

          There are a number of opportunities to correct the failures which led the north to lose its political power. One of these opportunities is available to our Governors, Presidential aspirants and organizations such as the ACF and the northern Political Elders Forum to contain the political disarray and economic poverty of the north before the elections. If they can engineer a winning formula, people in the north may be assured that some remnants of northern political leadership still exists. If they cannot, then a new generation of northern leaders must emerge to give political leadership which the north deserves. 

END OF THE ROAD FOR THE JONATHAN-POLITICAL ELDERS’ FORUM

Just when rumors that some agreement on the desire to achieve a major breakthrough in the political north by President Jonathan through the Northern Political Elders Forum were gaining some credibility, the arrest and interrogation of two of the officials of the Forum appear to have thrown  spanners in the works. The two officials were reportedly arrested and interrogated, then released, on suspicions that they were part of a conspiracy to poison President Goodluck Jonathan at a secret meeting a few weeks ago. No sooner were the two arrested, than chieftains of the Forum, including Malam Adamu Ciroma himself, started demanding for their release, and there were widespread insinuations that the arrests had heavy political undertones, particularly given the failure of the talks between Jonathan and the Forum to make any major headway. After the release of the two officers, they denied any knowledge or involvement in the alleged plot to poison President Jonathan before or after the elections.

          The arrest of these two key officials of the Northern Political Elders Forum would suggest that relations between the Forum and the President Jonathan Camp have irretrievably broken down, unless the security agencies can prove that there are grounds to sustain the investigations, and the leadership of the Forum will accept that the law must take its course, and that the arrest and investigation of the two officers has nothing to do with politics. The President has also denied having anything to do with the arrest of the two officials, and has re-stated his commitment to pursuing the talks to a fruitful conclusion. The President’s spokesman maintains that their camp is still waiting for the response of the Elders Forum, especially since the President’s visit to the residence of Malam Adamu Ciroma was meant to underline the seriousness with which the Jonathan camp views the dialogue.

          Now that these arrests appear to be putting the negotiations under some serious strain, it would be interesting to see what their outcomes will be. The Elders Forum was the child of necessity, an assemblage of a few leaders, the vast majority of whom are major players in the PDP, and many of them nominees of northern aspirants for a consensus candidate from the North to challenge Jonathan at the PDP Convention. Without these northern aspirants, Generals Babangida and Aliyu Gusau, Atiku Abubakar and Governor Saraki, it is difficult to imagine that the Elders Forum would have made any impact at all. They were also important only because the aspirants themselves accorded them some recognition and legitimacy in terms of their mandates. They enjoyed a measure of recognition and support from mainstream PDP North, and tapped into a huge reservoir of northern sentiment over the zoning and rotation issue. In the end, their project failed woefully, and the candidate they clothed with the garb of a northern candidate was humiliated in Eagle Square with the active collaboration of many northern Governors. So badly was Atiku defeated with northern support that he failed to get up to 100 delegates from the entire Southern States to vote for him. In a way, therefore, if there was a consensus candidate, it was President Jonathan who the Convention showed clearly is the Southern Consensus Candidate. And he did not even have a Southern Political Elders Forum to engineer his victory.   

          The Elders Forum made two major mistakes. One was its failure to involve other political blocs outside the north in its project, and build strategic alliances and support, or, at the very least, reduce the awesome power of Southern Governors and other PDP chieftains in southern States. This resulted in the fatal isolation of its candidate, and exposed the PDP north to an accustomed image of going it alone. Their candidate paid dearly for this, and his failure was seen as the triumph of the South over the North, an event without a precedent in Nigerian history.

          The second major mistake of the Elders Forum was its assumption that PDP Northern Governors were either dispensable, or inherently loyal to a northern project. Incredibly, persons who have had a very rich experience in the murky waters of Nigerian politics, and who should know that when elections are around the corner, the powers of the Presidency to whip Governors into line using many intimidating tactics is unsurpassed, simply thought Governors will respect some symbolic sentiment around a northern interest, when their own political fortunes and personal comforts are threatened by it. In the end, a few northern Governors made nonsense of the Elders Forum’s project, and showed the north and the nation where power truly lies in the north.

          Many people would have thought that with the humiliating defeat of Atiku Abubakar and the Elders Forum’s project, these elderly gentlemen will close shop and retire altogether from the business of creating any more consensus. However, Nigerian politicians never close shop. When they do, they generally move to the next street to open another one. Or they simple change commodities they sell, in the same shop.

          Our Elders Forum converted itself into a permanent body and began discussions with President Jonathan, even if, as the media wants Nigerians to believe, reluctantly. The impression being created is that President Jonathan is so desperate to reduce northern hostility against his candidature that he is turning to the Elders’ Forum for solution. Although the talks between Jonathan and the Forum were anything but sincere, given the manner both sides freely used the media to undermine each other’s positions, they apparently got stuck around the issue of zoning and rotation, an issue long settled and buried by the humiliation of both Atiku and the Elders by the PDP.

          A few people with some residue of respect for the elders would have advised them against engaging President Jonathan in the first place. Even given the valid argument that politics does not accept closing all doors to dialogue, a more valid question would be what possible good will come of the talks. The Elders cannot deliver the north to Jonathan. Jonathan has problems with the north because he has offended a vast majority of simple folks who believe in the value of honor and respect for rules; not because he has fallen out with some PDP elders in Abuja. Northern PDP Governors may be able to help Jonathan more than the Elders, but they have many problems of their own.

          If the Northern Elders Political Forum have any political clout, and a desire to place their considerable experience at the service of the North, they will be well advised to explore options which will create one consensus candidate from among General Buhari, Nuhu Ribadu and Ibrahim Shekarau. Millions of northerners will welcome a resolution of the crisis which faces the north in having three major contenders against one from the south, and one who has more muscle and resources than all of them put together. If they cannot direct their energies in this direction, it will do them a world of good to stay away from the political terrain altogether.